Insect distributions and sampling protocols for stored commodities

Purpose of review: This review provides an overview on the importance of characterising and considering insect distribution infor- mation for designing stored commodity sampling protocols. Findings: Sampling protocols are influenced by a number of factors including government regulations, management practices, new technology and current perceptions of the status of insect pest damage. The spatial distribution of insects in stored commodities influ- ences the efficiency of sampling protocols; these can vary in response to season, treatment and other factors. It is important to use sam- pling designs based on robust statistics suitable for the purpose. Future research: The development of sampling protocols based on flexible, robust statistics allows for accuracy across a range of spatial distributions. Additionally, power can be added to sampling protocols through the integration of external information such as treatment history and climate. Bayesian analysis provides a coherent and well understood means to achieve this.

The robustness of mine water accounting over a range of operating contexts and commodities

Communicating the mining industry’s water use is fundamental to maintaining its social license to operate but the majority of corporate reporting schemes list indicators. The Minerals Council of Australia’s Water Accounting Framework was designed to assist the minerals industry obtain consistency in its accounting method and in the definitions of terms used in water reporting. The significance of this paper is that it shows that the framework has been designed to be sufficiently robust to describe any mining/mineral related operation. The Water Accounting Framework was applied across four operations over three countries producing four commodities. The advantages of the framework were then evident through the presentation of the reports. The contextual statement of the framework was able to explain contrasting reuse efficiencies. The Input-Output statements showed that evaporation was a significant loss for most of the operations in the study which highlights a weakness of reporting schemes that focus on discharge volumes. The framework method promotes data reconciliation which proved the presence of flows that two operations in the study had neglected to provide. Whilst there are many advantages of the framework, the major points are that the reporting statements of the framework, when presented together, can better enable the public to understand water interactions at a site-level and allows for valid comparisons between sites, regardless of locale and commodity. With mining being a global industry, these advantages are best realised if there was international adoption of the framework.

BALANÇO de serviços ambientais múltiplos, produção de commodities e conservação da biodiversidade: adaptação de modelo de avaliação integrada para uso em escala de paisagem.

2010

El precio de la tierra en pradera pampeana y su relación con los commodities agropecuarios : periodo 1988 - 2008

El presente trabajo se focaliza en el estudio del valor de la tierra en pradera pampeana y su relación con los commodities agropecuarios para el período comprendido entre los años 1988 y 2008. En la década de 1990 se ha producido un nuevo escenario en el mercado inmobiliario rural argentino, principalmente en la zona conocida como Pradera Pampeana. Los motivos principales que lo han desencadenado fueron la adaptación de la siembra directa y el uso de variedades transgénicas, acompañado por todo un paquete tecnológico hasta entonces desconocido en el país. El valor de la tierra está determinado por la productividad de los factores y el instrumento que se utilizó para cuantificar el mismo fue el método de flujo de fondos y del valor residual descontado por la tasa de corte imperante en cada período bajo análisis. En el presente trabajo se buscó verificar el comportamiento del valor de equilibrio (técnico) de la tierra en la pampa húmeda y su relación con el valor de mercado. El valor de la tierra en las distintas zonas de la pampa húmeda constituye un sistema de vasos comunicantes que se expresa a través de la correlación que existe entre los valores de las distintas zonas. Se produce una revalorización de los campos por arbitraje o arrastre al variar los precios de algunos commodities más que otros. Finalmente se demostró que el precio relativo de los granos a nivel internacional, la tecnología aplicada, las políticas públicas vigentes y la tasa de corte son determinantes del valor técnico de la tierra; el cual, sumado a las expectativas de valoración genera el valor de mercado. Las encuestas realizadas a expertos en el mercado inmobiliario rural reflejan que el valor de la tierra se debe a lo dicho, además de ser un factor escaso y un refugio contra la desvalorización del dólar y el peso.

El precio de la tierra en pradera pampeana y su relación con los commodities agropecuarios : periodo 1988 - 2008

El presente trabajo se focaliza en el estudio del valor de la tierra en pradera pampeana y su relación con los commodities agropecuarios para el período comprendido entre los años 1988 y 2008. En la década de 1990 se ha producido un nuevo escenario en el mercado inmobiliario rural argentino, principalmente en la zona conocida como Pradera Pampeana. Los motivos principales que lo han desencadenado fueron la adaptación de la siembra directa y el uso de variedades transgénicas, acompañado por todo un paquete tecnológico hasta entonces desconocido en el país. El valor de la tierra está determinado por la productividad de los factores y el instrumento que se utilizó para cuantificar el mismo fue el método de flujo de fondos y del valor residual descontado por la tasa de corte imperante en cada período bajo análisis. En el presente trabajo se buscó verificar el comportamiento del valor de equilibrio (técnico)de la tierra en la pampa húmeda y su relación con el valor de mercado. El valor de la tierra en las distintas zonas de la pampa húmeda constituye un sistema de vasos comunicantes que se expresa a través de la correlación que existe entre los valores de las distintas zonas. Se produce una revalorización de los campos por arbitraje o arrastre al variar los precios de algunos commodities más que otros. Finalmente se demostró que el precio relativo de los granos a nivel internacional, la tecnología aplicada, las políticas públicas vigentes y la tasa de corte son determinantes del valor técnico de la tierra; el cual, sumado a las expectativas de valoración genera el valor de mercado. Las encuestas realizadas a expertos en el mercado inmobiliario rural reflejan que el valor de la tierra se debe a lo dicho, además de ser un factor escaso y un refugio contra la desvalorización del dólar y el peso.

Futuros financeiros: uma abordagem aos commodities de algodão

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre José Carlos Pedro

Modelos de previsão de preços de commodities

O principal objectivo deste trabalho assenta em desenvolver modelos de previsão de preços de commodities para assim comparar a capacidade preditiva da simulação de Monte Carlo com a das redes neuronais. A simulação de Monte Carlo é principalmente utilizada para avaliar as opções, já as redes neuronais são utilizadas para fazer previsões, classificações, clustering ou aproximação de funções. Os diversos modelos desenvolvidos foram aplicados na previsão do preço futuro do milho, petróleo, ouro e cobre. Sendo que os horizontes temporais testados neste trabalho foram 1 dia, 5 dias, 20 dias e 60 dias. Através da análise do erro absoluto médio percentual (MAPE) concluiu-se que no geral o modelo individual que apresentou um melhor desempenho preditivo foram as redes neuronais. Contudo, nas previsões a 1 e a 5 dias os resultados obtidos foram semelhantes para ambos os modelos. Para se tentar melhorar os resultados obtidos pelos modelos individuais foram aplicadas algumas técnicas de combinação de modelos. A combinação de modelos demonstrou no geral capacidade para melhorar os resultados dos modelos individuais, porém apenas para o horizonte a 60 dias é que os resultados melhoraram significativamente.

Macroeconomic risk in commodities market

The thesis studies the presence of macroeconomic risk in the commodities futures market. I present strong evidence that there is a strong relationship between macroeconomic risk and individual commodities future returns. Furthermore, long-only trading strategies seem to be strongly exposed to systematic risk, while long-short trading strategies (based on basis, momentum and basis-momentum) are found to present no such risk. Instead, I found a strong sentiment exposure in the portfolio returns of these long-short strategies, mainly during recessions. The advantages of following long-short strategies become even clearer when analyzing different macroeconomic regimes.

Commodities and their fetishism

Many pr oblems present themselves in at tempting t o discuss Marx's noti on of the fetish characteristics of commodities. It has been argued that it is one of the central points of Marx's en tir e c or pus. 1 It has also been argued that it i s merely "a brilli an t s oci olog i cal genera lization l ! and, even furth er, that it is an Hi ndependent and separate entity, internally hardly related t o Marx's economic theory" .2 How could such a theory be understo od i n such drastically diff erent ways? Perhaps the clue is to be f ound somewhere in Marx' s discussion of the fetishism of commodities itself. Because of the difficulty in un derstanding fetishism , I intend t o examine what Marx himself has t o say first befor e dealing with any points related to the notion of fetishism. Thus , the first parts of this thesis will c onsist of l ong qu otations and repetition of what Marx has t o say. If a noti on may be called ' central' and yet 'hardly related' t o Marx's wor k at the same time, surely a clear examination of this section is necess ary. Aft er an examination of the initial secti ons of Cae ital ] I intend t G examine the f ollowing : the r e lation of fetishism t o the t he ory of alienati on; how one may regard f etishism as a pr oblem f or philosophy; and how, in f act, the theory of fetishism is of prime imp ortance f or an understan ding of Marx's wr itings. What I want to stress throughout is that with o u~ an understanding of what is inherent in the pr oduction of the commodity causing i t t o be necessarily fetishistic, it is practically imp ossible t o understand much of Marx's other writin gs. A commodity appears, at fir st sight, a very trivial thing and easi ly un derst ood. Itsanalysis shows that it i s , in r eality , a very queer thing , abo unding in ~taphysical s ubtleties and theological nic eties .

ITEM : An Integrated Transport Economy Model - Price Elasticities of Freight Transport Demand in Canada : Three Canadian Markets and Four Commodities.

Rapport de recherche

The Economics of Oil, Biofuel and Food Commodities

Nous étudions l'effet sur le marché des aliments de l'introduction sur le marché de l'énergie de biocarburants, comme substitut aux combustibles fossiles. Nous supposons une économie où cohabitent sur le marché de l'énergie un cartel pétrolier et une frange compétitive de cultivateurs qui produit de l'énergie sous forme de biocarburant. Les cultivateurs produisent également des produits agricoles qu'ils vendent sur le marché des aliments. Nous caractérisons la relation qui en résulte entre le prix de l'énergie et le prix des aliments, ainsi que le sentier d'extraction du cartel pétrolier et le sentier de prix de l'énergie. Il est démontré que le prix des aliments va croître aussi longtemps que le stock de pétrole n'est pas épuisé, et cela que la population soit croissante ou non. Il continuera à croître une fois le stock de pétrole épuisé si la population est croissante. Les effets de l'amélioration dans la productivité de la terre dans la production d'aliments ainsi que dans la production de biocarburant sont analysés.

A Study on Futures Trading in Commodities With Special Reference to Rubber

Futures trading in Commodities has three specific economic functions viz. price discovery, hedging and reduction in volatility. Natural rubber possesses all the specifications required for futures trading. Commodity futures trading in India attained momentum after the starting of national level commodity exchanges in 2003. The success of futures trading depends upon effective price risk management, price discovery and reduced volatility which in turn depends upon the volume of trading. In the case of rubber futures market, the volume of trading depends upon the extent of participation by market players like growers, dealers, manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS). The extent of participation by market players has a direct bearing on their awareness level and their perception about futures trading. In the light of the above facts and the review of literature available on rubber futures market, it is felt that a study on rubber futures market is necessary to fill the research gap, with specific focus on (1) the awareness and perception of rubber futures market participants viz. (i) rubber growers, (ii) dealers, (iii) rubber product manufacturers, (iv) rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS) about futures trading and (2) whether the rubber futures market is fulfilling the economic functions of futures market viz. hedging, reduction in volatility and price discovery or not. The study is confined to growers, dealers, rubber goods manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and RPS in Kerala. In order to achieve the stated objectives, the study utilized secondary data for the period from 2003 to 2013 from different published sources like bulletins, newsletters, circulars from NMCE, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Warehousing Corporation and traders. The primary data required for this study were collected from rubber growers, rubber dealers, RPS & Rubber Marketing Co-operative Societies and rubber goods manufacturers in Kerala. Data pertaining to the awareness and perception of futures trading, participation in the futures trading, use of spot and futures prices and source of price information by dealers, farmers, manufacturers and cooperative societies also were collected. Statistical tools used for analysis include percentage, standard deviation, Chi-square test, Mann – Whitney U test, Kruskal Wallis test, Augmented Dickey – Fuller test statistic, t- statistic, Granger causality test, F- statistic, Johansen co – integration test, Trace statistic and Max –Eigen statistic. The study found that 71.5 per cent of the total hedges are effective and 28.5 per cent are ineffective for the period under study. It implies that futures market in rubber reduced the impact of price risks by approximately 71.5 per cent. Further, it is observed that, on 54.4 per cent occasions, the futures market exercised a stabilizing effect on the spot market, and on 45.6 per cent occasions futures trading exercised a destabilizing effect on the spot market. It implies that elasticity of expectation of futures market in rubber has a predominant stabilizing effect on spot prices. The market, as a whole, exhibits a bias in favour of long hedges. Spot price volatility of rubber during futures suspension period is more than that of the pre suspension period and post suspension period. There is a bi-directional association-ship or bi-directional causality or pair- wise causality between spot price and futures price of rubber. From the results of the hedging efficiency, spot price volatility, and price discovery, it can be concluded that rubber futures market fulfils all the economic functions expected from a commodity futures market. Thus in India, the future of rubber futures is Bright…!!!