980 resultados para BASE RATE PROBLEM
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El objetivo de este artículo es presentar el proyecto EcoSPORTech, cuya finalidad es la creación de una empresa social con jóvenes para la realización de actividades deportivas/ocio en el medio natural, integrando las nuevas tecnologías. Este proyecto supone una colaboración interdisciplinaria dentro de la Universidad de Vic, entre las facultades de Empresa y Comunicación (FEC), la de Ciencias de la Salud y el Bienestar (FCSB) y la de Educación (FE) e integra un equipo de profesionales procedentes de los ámbitos de la empresa, el marketing, el periodismo, el deporte y la terapia ocupacional. Estos profesores formarán al grupo de jóvenes con los que se creará la empresa y dirigirán la misma. Esta empresa (cooperativa) se integra en el vivero de empresas sociales que se está creando en la Universidad de Vic.
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The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be "notorious," as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.
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Mode of access: Internet.
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Objectives: The purpose of this study was to measure the intraobserver and interobserver reliability of magnetic resonance detection of cervical spondylotic myelopathy with and without operational guidelines. Methods: Seven radiologists examined images from 10 patients with cord signal abnormalities and clinical signs of myelopathy. Radiologist examined films twice, with and without operational guidelines designed to define stenotic changes, while blinded to the clinical findings of the patients. Analyses included a Fleiss kappa assessment of intraobserver and interobserver reliability. Results: Results demonstrated high percentage of agreement and strong intraobserver reliability and variable Fleiss kappa, values for interobserver assessment. Operational guidelines did not improve the intraobserver or interobserver agreement. Conclusion: Although the percentage of agreement was high in some cases, the kappa agreement was low-most likely a result of the base rate problem of a kappa analysis. Sample bias toward severe degenerative changes resulted in highly prevalent selections and kappa adjusted values. Nonetheless, the results do suggest that substantial intraobserver kappa agreement and a wide range of interobserver kappa agreement exists among trained radiologists during detection of stenotic changes associated with cervical spondylotic myelopathy.
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Purpose: Intervertebral cervical disc herniation (CDH) is a relatively common disorder that can coexist with degenerative changes to worsen cervicogenic myelopathy. Despite the frequent disc abnormalities found in asymptomatic populations, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is considered excellent at detecting cervical spine myelopathy (CSM) associated with disc abnormality. The objective of this study was to investigate the intra- and inter-observer reliability of MRI detection of CSM in subjects who also had co-existing intervertebral disc abnormalities. Materials and methods: Seven experienced radiologists reviewed twice the MRI of 10 patients with clinically and/or imaging determined myelopathy. MRI assessment was performed individually, with and without operational guidelines. A Fleiss Kappa statistic was used to evaluate the intra- and inter-observer agreement. Results: The study found high intra-observer percent agreement but relatively low Kappa values on selected variables. Inter-observer reliability was also low and neither observation was improved with operational guidelines. We believe that those low values may be associated with the base rate problem of Kappa. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study demonstrated high intra-observer percent agreement in MR examination for intervertebral disc abnormalities in patients with underlying cervical myelopathy, but differing levels of intra- and inter-observer Kappa agreement among seven radiologists. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.
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Serious games are starting to attain a higher role as tools for learning in various contexts, but in particular in areas such as education and training. Due to its characteristics, such as rules, behavior simulation and feedback to the player's actions, serious games provide a favorable learning environment where errors can occur without real life penalty and students get instant feedback from challenges. These challenges are in accordance with the intended objectives and will self-adapt and repeat according to the student’s difficulty level. Through motivating and engaging environments, which serve as base for problem solving and simulation of different situations and contexts, serious games have a great potential to aid players developing professional skills. But, how do we certify the acquired knowledge and skills? With this work we intend to propose a methodology to establish a relationship between the game mechanics of serious games and an array of competences for certification, evaluating the applicability of various aspects in the design and development of games such as the user interfaces and the gameplay, obtaining learning outcomes within the game itself. Through the definition of game mechanics combined with the necessary pedagogical elements, the game will ensure the certification. This paper will present a matrix of generic skills, based on the European Framework of Qualifications, and the definition of the game mechanics necessary for certification on tour guide training context. The certification matrix has as reference axes: skills, knowledge and competencies, which describe what the students should learn, understand and be able to do after they complete the learning process. The guides-interpreters welcome and accompany tourists on trips and visits to places of tourist interest and cultural heritage such as museums, palaces and national monuments, where they provide various information. Tour guide certification requirements include skills and specific knowledge about foreign languages and in the areas of History, Ethnology, Politics, Religion, Geography and Art of the territory where it is inserted. These skills are communication, interpersonal relationships, motivation, organization and management. This certification process aims to validate the skills to plan and conduct guided tours on the territory, demonstrate knowledge appropriate to the context and finally match a good group leader. After defining which competences are to be certified, the next step is to delineate the expected learning outcomes, as well as identify the game mechanics associated with it. The game mechanics, as methods invoked by agents for interaction with the game world, in combination with game elements/objects allows multiple paths through which to explore the game environment and its educational process. Mechanics as achievements, appointments, progression, reward schedules or status, describe how game can be designed to affect players in unprecedented ways. In order for the game to be able to certify tour guides, the design of the training game will incorporate a set of theoretical and practical tasks to acquire skills and knowledge of various transversal themes. For this end, patterns of skills and abilities in acquiring different knowledge will be identified.
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Suolahappo kuuluu peruskemianteollisuuden tuotteisiin ja on monen eri kemianteollisuuden tuotteen raaka-aine, jota ilman tuotantoprosessi keskeytyy. Suolahapontuottajia on vain muutama Suomessa ja näiden tuottajien varassa toimii lukuisia jatkojalostusteollisuuslaitoksia. Työssä lähdettiin kehittämään suolahapontoimitusvarmuutta logistiikan keinoin. Toimitusvarmuutta haluttiin kehittää sesonkivaihteluiden ja tuotantokatkosten aikana. Työssä etsitään sopiva sesonkivarastointikapasiteetti ja varmuusvarastotaso sekä järkevä sijainti varastolle. Varastointia kehitetään kuljetukset ja tuotannon luonne huomioiden. Työn alussa esitellään yritys ja tuotantoprosessi. Tämän jälkeen analysoidaan kysyntätietoja ja kasataan ongelmat toimitusvarmuudessa. Näiden pohjalta lähdetään kehittämään teoriapohjaisia ratkaisuvaihtoehtoja, jonka jälkeen ne sovelletaan yritykselle sopivaan muotoon. Työn tuloksena saatiin esitys varastointitarpeesta sekä siitä aiheutuvista kustannuksista. Työssäesitetään myös järkevä varaston sijainti ja soveltuva kuljetuskäytäntö tähän varastoon.
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The purpose of the present thesis was to explore different aspects of decision making and expertise in investigations of child sexual abuse (CSA) and subsequently shed some light on the reasons for shortcomings in the investigation processes. Clinicians’ subjective attitudes as well as scientifically based knowledge concerning CSA, CSA investigation and interviewing were explored. Furthermore the clinicians’ own view on their expertise and what enhances this expertise was investigated. Also, the effects of scientific knowledge, experience and attitudes on the decision making in a case of CSA were explored. Finally, the effects of different kinds of feedback as well as experience on the ability to evaluate CSA in the light of children’s behavior and base rates were investigated. Both explorative and experimental methods were used. The purpose of Study I was to investigate whether clinicians investigating child sexual abuse (CSA) rely more on scientific knowledge or on clinical experience when evaluating their own expertise. Another goal was to check what kind of beliefs the clinicians held. The connections between these different factors were investigated. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, experience, knowledge about CSA, selfevaluated expertise and beliefs about CSA was given to social workers, child psychiatrists and psychologists working with children. The results showed that the clinicians relied more on their clinical experience than on scientific knowledge when evaluating their expertise as investigators of CSA. Furthermore, social workers possessed stronger attitudes in favor of children than the other groups, while child psychiatrists had more negative attitudes towards the criminal justice system. Male participants held less strong beliefs than female participants. The findings indicate that the education of CSA investigators should focus more on theoretical knowledge and decision making processes as well as the role of beliefs In Study II school and family counseling psychologists completed a Child Sexual Abuse Attitude and Belief Scale. Four CSA related attitude and belief subscales were identified: 1. The Disclosure subscale reflecting favoring a disclosure at any cost, 2. The Pro-Child subscale reflecting unconditional belief in children's reports, 3. The Intuition subscale reflecting favoring an intuitive approach to CSA investigations, and 4. The Anti Criminal Justice System subscale reflecting negative attitudes towards the legal system. Beliefs that were erroneous according to empirical research were analyzed separately. The results suggest that some psychologists hold extreme attitudes and many erroneous beliefs related to CSA. Some misconceptions are common. Female participants tended to hold stronger attitudes than male participants. The more training in interviewing children the participants have, the more erroneous beliefs and stronger attitudes they hold. Experience did not affect attitudes and beliefs. In Study III mental health professionals’ sensitivity to suggestive interviewing in CSA cases was explored. Furthermore, the effects of attitudes and beliefs related to CSA and experience with CSA investigations on the sensitivity to suggestive influences in the interview were investigated. Also, the effect of base rate estimates of CSA on decisions was examined. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, different aspects of clinical experience, self-evaluated expertise, beliefs and knowledge about CSA and a set of ambiguous material based on real trial documents concerning an alleged CSA case was given to child mental health professionals. The experiment was based on a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (leading questions: yes vs no) x (stereotype induction: yes vs no) x (emotional tone: pressure to respond vs no pressure to respond) x (threats and rewards: yes vs no) between-subjects factorial design, in which the suggestiveness of the methods with which the responses of the child were obtained were varied. There was an additional condition in which the material did not contain any interview transcripts. The results showed that clinicians are sensitive only to the presence of leading questions but not to the presence of other suggestive techniques. Furthermore, the clinicians were not sensitive to the possibility that suggestive techniques could have been used when no interview transcripts had been included in the trial material. Experience had an effect on the sensitivity of the clinicians only regarding leading questions. Strong beliefs related to CSA lessened the sensitivity to leading questions. Those showing strong beliefs on the belief scales used in this study were even more prone to prosecute than other participants when other suggestive influences than leading questions were present. Controversy exists regarding effects of experience and feedback on clinical decision making. In Study IV the impact of the number of handled cases and of feedback on the decisions in cases of alleged CSA was investigated. One-hundred vignettes describing cases of suspected CSA were given to students with no experience with investigating CSA. The vignettes were based on statistical data about symptoms and prevalence of CSA. According to the theoretical likelihood of CSA the children described were categorized as abused or not abused. The participants were asked to decide whether abuse had occurred. They were divided into 4 groups: one received feedback on whether their decision was right or wrong, one received information about cognitive processes involved in decision making, one received both, and one did not receive feedback at all. The results showed that participants who received feedback on their performance made more correct positive decisions and participants who got information about decision making processes made more correct negative decisions. Feedback and information combined decreased the number of correct positive decisions but increased the number of correct negative decisions. The number of read cases had in itself a positive effect on correct positive decision.
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This paper aims at exploring some hypothesis to explain why real interest rate and bank spread are so high. We argue that the interest rate problem and bank spread problem are connected. More precisely, one important cause of bank spread is the high level of BCB interest rate. So, the solution of interest rate problem, so that it can converge to the levels observed in other countries, will help to reduce bank spread, and doing so contributing to the reduction of the capital cost of the Brazilian economy.
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The aim of this qualitative thesis is to research, how professional services create value, and what are the key factors affecting on this process. A model describing value creation process in professional services will be explained, based on the existing literature and three in depth discussions with professional service representatives. Professional services are such services that are tend to base on problem solving and require high skills and knowledge of a professional. These services often have a consultative or an advisory nature, and they often involve both client and a company in service process. As the service is often delivered in somewhat collaboration so is the value created. The results of this thesis revealed that value is created in collaboration or co-operation in professional services. Therefore, value co-creation, as a concept, is exact to describe the value creation process in professional services. This thesis also revealed that value is co- created in continuous communication between a client and a company and no value or only a little value can be created if there is no effective communication during the professional service process.
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In the backdrop of issues encountered by the marine product exports from Kerala in the traditional strongholds of the European Union and the United States, there is a need to target newer markets. The ASEAN India Trade in Goods Agreement (TIGA) though proposes to liberalize trade between India and the ASEAN member nations, fails to deliver greater market access for our marine products in the markets of the ASEAN nations. This can be attributed to factors such as the lower prevailing MFN base rate in the ASEAN nations, tariff reduction commitments reciprocated by them being lesser than India’s offers, inclusion of our prominent items of export in the restrictive lists of most of the ASEAN nations etc. Export forecast suggests that this is a market to be reckoned, which in turn stipulates the need to secure greater concessions and preferential treatment for our marine product exports in the ASEAN nations to capitalize on the gains that have been made
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Este trabajo estima el efecto en el nivel de las exportaciones realizadas por América Latina haciaEstados Unidos cuando se asumen los siguientes tres escenarios. Reducción del nivel de precios delos productos de origen chino, Apreciación del veinte por ciento del Renminbi.