Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

Intelligent alarm processing

This paper presents the analysis that have been carried out in the alarm system of the DCRanger EMS. The intention of this study is to present the problem of alarm processing in electric energy control centers, its various aspects and operational difficulties due to operator needs. Some tests are produced in order to identify the desirable features an alarm system should possess in order to be of effective help in the operative duty. © 2006 IEEE.

Alarm tree analysis using statistical techniques

This work presents a systematic method for the generation and treatment of the alarms' graphs, being its final object to find the Alarm Root Cause of the Massive Alarms that are produced in the dispatching centers. Although many works about this matter have been already developed, the problem about the alarm management in the industry is still completely unsolved. In this paper, a simple statistic analysis of the historical data base is conducted. The results obtained by the acquisition alarm systems, are used to generate a directed graph from which the more significant alarms are extracted, previously analyzing any possible case in which a great quantity of alarms are produced.

Operator, organizational and intermediate (direct support and general support) maintenance manual (including repair parts and special tools list) : control unit, alarm set C-9412( )/FSS-9(V) (6350-228-2735).

Includes index.

Operator, organizational, and intermediate (direct support and general support) maintenance manual (including repair parts and special tools list) : alarm, audible, BZ-204( )/FSS-9(V), FSN 6350-228-2514.

Includes index.

Rural and remote road safety study : final report

• Introduction: Concern and action for rural road safety is relatively new in Australia in comparison to the field of traffic safety as a whole. In 2003, a program of research was begun by the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q) and the Rural Health Research Unit (RHRU) at James Cook University to investigate factors contributing to serious rural road crashes in the North Queensland region. This project was funded by the Premier’s Department, Main Roads Department, Queensland Transport, QFleet, Queensland Rail, Queensland Ambulance Service, Department of Natural Resources and Queensland Police Service. Additional funding was provided by NRMA Insurance for a PhD scholarship. In-kind support was provided through the four hospitals used for data collection, namely Cairns Base Hospital, The Townsville Hospital, Mount Isa Hospital and Atherton Hospital.----- The primary aim of the project was to: Identify human factors related to the occurrence of serious traffic incidents in rural and remote areas of Australia, and to the trauma suffered by persons as a result of these incidents, using a sample drawn from a rural and remote area in North Queensland.----- The data and analyses presented in this report are the core findings from two broad studies: a general examination of fatalities and casualties from rural and remote crashes for the period 1 March 2004 until 30 June 2007, and a further linked case-comparison study of hospitalised patients compared with a sample of non-crash-involved drivers.----- • Method: The study was undertaken in rural North Queensland, as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) statistical divisions of North Queensland, Far North Queensland and North-West Queensland. Urban areas surrounding Townsville, Thuringowa and Cairns were not included. The study methodology was centred on serious crashes, as defined by a resulting hospitalisation for 24 hours or more and/or a fatality. Crashes meeting this criteria within the North Queensland region between 1 March 2004 and 30 June 2007 were identified through hospital records and interviewed where possible. Additional data was sourced from coroner’s reports, the Queensland Transport road crash database, the Queensland Ambulance Service and the study hospitals in the region.----- This report is divided into chapters corresponding to analyses conducted on the collected crash and casualty data.----- Chapter 3 presents an overview of all crashes and casualties identified during the study period. Details are presented in regard to the demographics and road user types of casualties; the locations, times, types, and circumstances of crashes; along with the contributing circumstances of crashes.----- Chapter 4 presents the results of summary statistics for all casualties for which an interview was able to be conducted. Statistics are presented separately for drivers and riders, passengers, pedestrians and cyclists. Details are also presented separately for drivers and riders crashing in off-road and on-road settings. Results from questionnaire data are presented in relation to demographics; the experience of the crash in narrative form; vehicle characteristics and maintenance; trip characteristics (e.g. purpose and length of journey; periods of fatigue and monotony; distractions from driving task); driving history; alcohol and drug use; medical history; driving attitudes, intentions and behaviour; attitudes to enforcement; and experience of road safety advertising.----- Chapter 5 compares the above-listed questionnaire results between on-road crash-involved casualties and interviews conducted in the region with non-crash-involved persons. Direct comparisons as well as age and sex adjusted comparisons are presented.----- Chapter 6 presents information on those casualties who were admitted to one of the study hospitals during the study period. Brief information is given regarding the demographic characteristics of these casualties. Emergency services’ data is used to highlight the characteristics of patient retrieval and transport to and between hospitals. The major injuries resulting from the crashes are presented for each region of the body and analysed by vehicle type, occupant type, seatbelt status, helmet status, alcohol involvement and nature of crash. Estimates are provided of the costs associated with in-hospital treatment and retrieval.----- Chapter 7 describes the characteristics of the fatal casualties and the nature and circumstances of the crashes. Demographics, road user types, licence status, crash type and contributing factors for crashes are presented. Coronial data is provided in regard to contributing circumstances (including alcohol, drugs and medical conditions), cause of death, resulting injuries, and restraint and helmet use.----- Chapter 8 presents the results of a comparison between casualties’ crash descriptions and police-attributed crash circumstances. The relative frequency of contributing circumstances are compared both broadly within the categories of behavioural, environmental, vehicle related, medical and other groupings and specifically for circumstances within these groups.----- Chapter 9 reports on the associated research projects which have been undertaken on specific topics related to rural road safety.----- Finally, Chapter 10 reports on the conclusions and recommendations made from the program of research.---- • Major Recommendations : From the findings of these analyses, a number of major recommendations were made: + Male drivers and riders - Male drivers and riders should continue to be the focus of interventions, given their very high representation among rural and remote road crash fatalities and serious injuries.----- - The group of males aged between 30 and 50 years comprised the largest number of casualties and must also be targeted for change if there is to be a meaningful improvement in rural and remote road safety.----- + Motorcyclists - Single vehicle motorcycle crashes constitute over 80% of serious, on-road rural motorcycle crashes and need particular attention in development of policy and infrastructure.----- - The motorcycle safety consultation process currently being undertaken by Queensland Transport (via the "Motorbike Safety in Queensland - Consultation Paper") is strongly endorsed. As part of this process, particular attention needs to be given to initiatives designed to reduce rural and single vehicle motorcycle crashes.----- - The safety of off-road riders is a serious problem that falls outside the direct responsibility of either Transport or Health departments. Responsibility for this issue needs to be attributed to develop appropriate policy, regulations and countermeasures.----- + Road safety for Indigenous people - Continued resourcing and expansion of The Queensland Aboriginal Peoples and Torres Strait Islander Peoples Driver Licensing Program to meet the needs of remote and Indigenous communities with significantly lower licence ownership levels.----- - Increased attention needs to focus on the contribution of geographic disadvantage (remoteness) factors to remote and Indigenous road trauma.----- + Road environment - Speed is the ‘final common pathway’ in determining the severity of rural and remote crashes and rural speed limits should be reduced to 90km/hr for sealed off-highway roads and 80km/hr for all unsealed roads as recommended in the Austroads review and in line with the current Tasmanian government trial.----- - The Department of Main Roads should monitor rural crash clusters and where appropriate work with local authorities to conduct relevant audits and take mitigating action. - The international experts at the workshop reviewed the data and identified the need to focus particular attention on road design management for dangerous curves. They also indicated the need to maximise the use of audio-tactile linemarking (audible lines) and rumble strips to alert drivers to dangerous conditions and behaviours.----- + Trauma costs - In accordance with Queensland Health priorities, recognition should be given to the substantial financial costs associated with acute management of trauma resulting from serious rural and remote crashes.----- - Efforts should be made to develop a comprehensive, regionally specific costing formula for road trauma that incorporates the pre-hospital, hospital and post-hospital phases of care. This would inform health resource allocation and facilitate the evaluation of interventions.----- - The commitment of funds to the development of preventive strategies to reduce rural and remote crashes should take into account the potential cost savings associated with trauma.----- - A dedicated study of the rehabilitation needs and associated personal and healthcare costs arising from rural and remote road crashes should be undertaken.----- + Emergency services - While the study has demonstrated considerable efficiency in the response and retrieval systems of rural and remote North Queensland, relevant Intelligent Transport Systems technologies (such as vehicle alarm systems) to improve crash notification should be both developed and evaluated.----- + Enforcement - Alcohol and speed enforcement programs should target the period between 2 and 6pm because of the high numbers of crashes in the afternoon period throughout the rural region.----- + Drink driving - Courtesy buses should be advocated and schemes such as the Skipper project promoted as local drink driving countermeasures in line with the very high levels of community support for these measures identified in the hospital study.------ - Programs should be developed to target the high levels of alcohol consumption identified in rural and remote areas and related involvement in crashes.----- - Referrals to drink driving rehabilitation programs should be mandated for recidivist offenders.----- + Data requirements - Rural and remote road crashes should receive the same quality of attention as urban crashes. As such, it is strongly recommended that increased resources be committed to enable dedicated Forensic Crash Units to investigate rural and remote fatal and serious injury crashes.----- - Transport department records of rural and remote crashes should record the crash location using the national ARIA area classifications used by health departments as a means to better identifying rural crashes.----- - Rural and remote crashes tend to be unnoticed except in relatively infrequent rural reviews. They should receive the same level of attention and this could be achieved if fatalities and fatal crashes were coded by the ARIA classification system and included in regular crash reporting.----- - Health, Transport and Police agencies should collect a common, minimal set of data relating to road crashes and injuries, including presentations to small rural and remote health facilities.----- + Media and community education programmes - Interventions seeking to highlight the human contribution to crashes should be prioritised. Driver distraction, alcohol and inappropriate speed for the road conditions are key examples of such behaviours.----- - Promotion of basic safety behaviours such as the use of seatbelts and helmets should be given a renewed focus.----- - Knowledge, attitude and behavioural factors that have been identified for the hospital Brief Intervention Trial should be considered in developing safety campaigns for rural and remote people. For example challenging the myth of the dangerous ‘other’ or ‘non-local’ driver.----- - Special educational initiatives on the issues involved in rural and remote driving should be undertaken. For example the material used by Main Roads, the Australian Defence Force and local initiatives.

Contributos para a análise estatística de séries de contagem

A análise das séries temporais de valores inteiros tornou-se, nos últimos anos, uma área de investigação importante, não só devido à sua aplicação a dados de contagem provenientes de diversos campos da ciência, mas também pelo facto de ser uma área pouco explorada, em contraste com a análise séries temporais de valores contínuos. Uma classe que tem obtido especial relevo é a dos modelos baseados no operador binomial thinning, da qual se destaca o modelo auto-regressivo de valores inteiros de ordem p. Esta classe é muito vasta, pelo que este trabalho tem como objectivo dar um contributo para a análise estatística de processos de contagem que lhe pertencem. Esta análise é realizada do ponto de vista da predição de acontecimentos, aos quais estão associados mecanismos de alarme, e também da introdução de novos modelos que se baseiam no referido operador. Em muitos fenómenos descritos por processos estocásticos a implementação de um sistema de alarmes pode ser fundamental para prever a ocorrência de um acontecimento futuro. Neste trabalho abordam-se, nas perspectivas clássica e bayesiana, os sistemas de alarme óptimos para processos de contagem, cujos parâmetros dependem de covariáveis de interesse e que variam no tempo, mais concretamente para o modelo auto-regressivo de valores inteiros não negativos com coeficientes estocásticos, DSINAR(1). A introdução de novos modelos que pertencem à classe dos modelos baseados no operador binomial thinning é feita quando se propõem os modelos PINAR(1)T e o modelo SETINAR(2;1). O modelo PINAR(1)T tem estrutura periódica, cujas inovações são uma sucessão periódica de variáveis aleatórias independentes com distribuição de Poisson, o qual foi estudado com detalhe ao nível das suas propriedades probabilísticas, métodos de estimação e previsão. O modelo SETINAR(2;1) é um processo auto-regressivo de valores inteiros, definido por limiares auto-induzidos e cujas inovações formam uma sucessão de variáveis independentes e identicamente distribuídas com distribuição de Poisson. Para este modelo estudam-se as suas propriedades probabilísticas e métodos para estimar os seus parâmetros. Para cada modelo introduzido, foram realizados estudos de simulação para comparar os métodos de estimação que foram usados.

Qualidade e satisfação do sistema de seguimento à distância de cardioversores-desfibrilhadores implantáveis

RESUMO - Com o aumento da esperança de vida e das doenças crónicas, cada vez se tem implantado mais cardioversores-desfibrilhadores (CDI) para prevenção de morte súbita. O aumento exponencial no número de implantes aumenta o número de seguimentos dos dispositivos, sobrecarregando os profissionais de saúde e comprometendo a qualidade dos serviços prestados. Segundo as recomendações internacionais, um CDI deverá ser vigiado a cada 3 meses, o que perfaz 4 consultas por ano/doente no mínimo, se não existirem episódios de “choques” ou “descompensações” clínicas, e mensalmente quando é atingido o indicador de substituição electiva do gerador. A evolução da tecnologia, de algoritmos, visualização de episódios e terapias requer recursos técnicos e humanos diferenciados e um gasto de tempo considerável no seguimento. Em países como os Estados Unidos da América, em que os doentes têm de percorrer distâncias muito grandes para aceder aos cuidados de saúde, tornou-se preemente a necessidade de um sistema de vigilância alternativo. Nesse sentido, e usando o conceito da telemedicina, foi criado o seguimento/monitorização à distância de dispositivos cardíacos. Este reduz os custos em consultas, deslocações e recursos humanos, uma vez que contempla apenas uma consulta presencial por ano. Por outro lado, aumenta a segurança do doente com a monitorização periódica e a criação de alarmes, permitindo uma assistência de qualidade e intervenção adequada imediata. Aproveitando as vantagens que este tipo de sistema de transmissão remota oferece, procedeu-se no meu serviço, à distribuição inicial de 62 comunicadores a doentes portadores de CDI´s ou com Ressincronizadores Cardíacos (TRC´s1). Apesar de ser considerada uma melhoria na qualidade dos serviços prestados, é também uma mudança importante na metodologia da consulta feita até aqui. Segundo vários autores, a avaliação da qualidade dos cuidados em saúde está intrinsecamente ligada ao grau de satisfação dos doentes com esses serviços, ou seja, à relação entre as suas expectativas e os resultados percebidos por eles, sendo considerado um importante indicador de qualidade dos serviços. Com este trabalho, pretende-se avaliar a percepção dos doentes face ao novo seguimento em termos de aceitação, satisfação, validade, segurança e confiança no novo sistema. Se este mantém os mesmos padrões de qualidade que o seguimento presencial. Trata-se de um estudo transversal com uma componente retrospectiva de avaliação da nova metodologia de consulta à distância. Para tal, foi elaborado um questionário, que foi aplicado a 40 doentes (17,5% do género feminino e 82,5% do género masculino; média de idades de 65 anos) que constituíram a amostra do estudo. Verificou-se uma média de 5 anos de tempo de implante do CDI. Dos dados obtidos, é de realçar que 70% dos inquiridos estão satisfeitos e 30% estão muito satisfeitos com esta nova metodologia de consulta e cerca 67,4% prefere a consulta à distância. Quando solicitados para comparar a qualidade do serviço prestado entre as duas consultas, 65% respondeu igual e 27,5% melhor. Todos os inquiridos responderam ter confiança e segurança com o sistema de consulta à distância. Cerca de 87,5% dos inquiridos vê-se mesmo a continuar com este tipo de consulta. Os resultados obtidos são bastante satisfatórios no que diz respeito à transição do modo como a consulta de CDI´s é feita. Reflectem também que a tecnologia não é necessariamente uma barreira no acesso aos profissionais de saúde, desde que suportada por algum contacto directo (telefone e através de uma consulta presencial por ano). 1 TRC – Terapia de Ressincronização Cardíaca

Evaluación del nivel de seguridad ocupacional en laboratorios universitarios de ingeniería en Bogotá

Antecedentes: Los laboratorios estudiantiles ofrecen riesgos para los estudiantes, la normatividad específica vigente no es de carácter obligatorio y en Bogotá aproximadamente hay 387 laboratorios. Objetivo: Evaluar el nivel de seguridad referente a salud, higiene y seguridad industrial en las prácticas que se desarrollan en los laboratorios de pregrado de Ingeniería en universidades de Bogotá. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo con un muestreo estratificado por conglomerado en ocho (8) universidades de la ciudad de Bogotá, con una confiabilidad del 95% y una precisión absoluta del 6% para una proporción máxima esperada; para evaluar los laboratorios se utilizó el Cuestionario de seguridad para laboratorios de secundaria (NTP 921) del Instituto Nacional de Seguridad e Higiene del Trabajo de España Resultados: Se evaluaron 166 laboratorios de 8 universidades de Bogotá, 65 de los laboratorios evaluados presentaron un riesgo bajo de los aspectos evaluados. Los aspectos con un porcentaje mayor o igual al 80% de cumplimiento de condiciones fueron aspectos generales del laboratorio, trabajo de los alumnos, manipulación de material, manipulación del producto, protección contra Incendios, eliminación de residuos, seguridad eléctrica y formación. Los ítems con un porcentaje menor del 60% de cumplimiento son los siguientes: sistemas de alarma contra incendios o emergencias; mantenimiento preventivo de la red eléctrica del laboratorio, capacitaciones anuales sobre seguridad en los laboratorios. aspectos generales del laboratorio, trabajo de los alumnos, manipulación de material, manipulación del producto, protección contra Incendios, eliminación de residuos, seguridad eléctrica y formación. Se realizó una prueba de asociación entre el tipo de laboratorio y cada ítem de las condiciones de seguridad del laboratorio. Los laboratorios que cumplen con un mayor número de condiciones de seguridad fueron los laboratorios químicos, el aspecto que obtuvo un porcentaje bajo de cumplimiento fue protección personal (40%); los aspectos que se cumplieron son aspectos generales del laboratorio, trabajo de los alumnos, manipulación de material, manipulación del producto, protección contra Incendios, eliminación de residuos, seguridad eléctrica y formación.

Métricas de desempenho para sistema de alarmes de processos industriais

The evolution of automation in recent years made possible the continuous monitoring of the processes of industrial plants. With this advance, the amount of information that automation systems are subjected to increased significantly. The alarms generated by the monitoring equipment are a major contributor to this increase, and the equipments are usually deployed in industrial plants without a formal methodology, which entails an increase in the number of alarms generated, thus overloading the alarm system and therefore the operators of such plants. In this context, the works of alarm management comes up with the objective of defining a formal methodology for installation of new equipment and detect problems in existing settings. This thesis aims to propose a set of metrics for the evaluation of alarm systems already deployed, so that you can identify the health of this system by analyzing the proposed indices and comparing them with parameters defined in the technical norms of alarm management. In addition, the metrics will track the work of alarm management, verifying if it is improving the quality of the alarm system. To validate the proposed metrics, data from actual process plants of the petrochemical industry were used

False alarms in damage detection approaches

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) denotes a system with the ability to detect and interpret adverse changes in structures in order to improve reliability and reduce life-cycle costs. The greatest challenge for designing a SHM system is knowing what changes to look for and how to classify them. Different approaches for SHM have been proposed for damage identification, each one with advantages and drawbacks. This paper presents a methodology for improvement in vibration signal analysis using statistics information involving the probability density. Generally, the presence of noises in input and output signals results in false alarms, then, it is important that the methodology can minimize this problem. In this paper, the proposed approach is experimentally tested in a flexible plate using a piezoelectric (PZT) actuator to provide the disturbance.

Operator, organizational, and intermediate (direct support and general support) maintenance manual (including repair parts and special tools list) : monitor module, status ID-1921()FSS-9(V) 6350-228-2661.

"July 1974."

Tailoring reveals information requirements: the case of anaesthesia alarms

We discuss the phenomenon of system tailoring in the context of data from an observational study of anaesthesia. We found that anaesthetists tailor their monitoring equipment so that the auditory alarms are more informative. However, the occurrence of tailoring by anaesthetists in the operating theatre was infrequent, even though the flexibility to tailor exists on many of the patient monitoring systems used in the study. We present an influence diagram to explain how alarm tailoring can increase situation awareness in the operating theatre but why factors inhibiting tailoring prevent widespread use. Extending the influence diagram, we discuss ways that more informative displays could achieve the results sought by anaesthetists when they tailor their alarm systems. In particular, we argue that we should improve our designs rather than simply provide more flexible tailoring systems. because users often find tailoring a complex task. We conclude that properly designed auditory displays may benefit anaesthetists in achieving greater patient situation awareness and that designers should consider carefully how factors promoting and inhibiting tailoring will affect the end-users' likelihood of conducting tailoring. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The human factors aspects of alarms in human supervisory control tasks.

This research thesis is concerned with the human factors aspects of industrial alarm systems within human supervisory control tasks. Typically such systems are located in central control rooms, and the information may be presented via visual display units. The thesis develops a human, rather than engineering, centred approach to the assessment, measurement and analysis of the situation. A human factors methodology was employed to investigate the human requirements through: interviews, questionnaires, observation and controlled experiments. Based on the analysis of current industrial alarm systems in a variety of domains (power generation, manufacturing and coronary care), it is suggested that often designers do not pay due considerations to the human requirements. It is suggested that most alarm systems have severe shortcomings in human factors terms. The interviews, questionnaire and observations led to the proposal of 'alarm initiated activities' as a framework for the research to proceed. The framework comprises of six main stages: observe, accept, analyse, investigate, correct and monitor. This framework served as a basis for laboratory research into alarm media. Under consideration were speech-based alarm displays and visual alarm displays. Non-speech auditory displays were the subject of a literature review. The findings suggest that care needs to be taken when selecting the alarm media. Ideally it should be chosen to support the task requirements of the operator, rather than being arbitrarily assigned. It was also indicated that there may be some interference between the alarm initiated activities and the alarm media, i.e. information that supports one particular stage of alarm handling may interfere with another.