Human Capital Investment and Poverty Reduction over Generations: A Case from the Rural Philippines, 1979-2003

This paper attempts to identify a pathway out of poverty over generations in the rural Philippines, based on long-term panel data spanning for nearly a quarter of a century. Specifically, it sequentially examines the determinants of schooling, subsequent occupational choices, and current non-farm earnings for the same individuals. We found that an initial rise in parental income, brought about by the land reform and the Green Revolution, among other things, improves the schooling of children, which later allows them to obtain remunerative non-farm jobs. These results suggest that the increased agricultural income, improved human capital through schooling and the development of non-farm sectors are the keys to reducing poverty in the long run. It must be also pointed out that the recent development of the rural non-farm sector offers ample employment opportunities for the less educated, which also significantly contributed to the poverty reduction.

経済成長と貧困・雇用：Pro-Poor Growth論の系譜

開発途上国が長期的に貧困削減を実現していくためには、貧困削減に貢献する形で経済成長をすることが必要であり、貧困削減に親和的な経済成長がPro-Poor Growthと呼ばれている。現在までのところ、Pro-Poor Growth研究は、どの国のどの時期の経済成長が貧困削減に大きく貢献したかを問うものが多数を占めており、何がpro-poor growthをもたらすか、に着目した研究は少ない。その少ない研究の多くは農業や農村経済の役割に期待するものであるが、本稿では、既にある程度の貧困削減を遂げた東・東南アジアの経験に鑑み、低賃金の国において労働集約的製造業品を輸出することで貧困層の賃金や雇用機会を飛躍的に伸張させる可能性について考察した。バングラデシュ、カンボジアといった国々は既に縫製業がその役割を果たしており、これまでの東・東南アジアの貧困削減パターンが現在の東南アジアや南アジアの最貧国でも踏襲される可能性が十分にある。

開発戦略としてのPro-Poor Growth －貧困層への雇用創出－

本稿は、後発開発途上国においてpro-poor growthを達成する開発戦略を、産業政策との関連から研究したものである。アジアとアフリカの経済発展プロセスにおいて、貧困層にどの産業が雇用機会を提供するか、を研究した。その結果明らかになったのは、1970-90年代の典型的な東アジア高成長経済であるタイと台湾において、貧困層に最も大きな雇用機会を与えたのが農業部門であったのに対して、貧困層の雇用機会増に最も貢献したのが製造業部門であったということである。同様の傾向は、アフリカの輸出指向成長国であるモーリシャスについても観察された。一方、グローバリゼーションの活力が十分に生かされなかったマラウィ、南アフリカ、インドにおいては、製造業が同様の雇用機会を貧困層に提供できなかった。結論として導かれるのは、典型的な後発発展途上国においては、雇用に関して農業のシェアが製造業のシェアを上回るのが一般的であるものの、もし比較優位がグローバリゼーションの中で顕在化できるのであれば、貧困層の雇用機会増に関して、農業よりも製造業の貢献度が大きくなりうる、ということである。一国全体の経済発展という観点のみならず、貧困層に利益をもたらすpro-poor growthという文脈においても、製造業の果たす役割が無視し得ないことが明らかになった。

The impact of unstable aids on consumption volatility in developing countries

In recent years, a large and expanding literature has examined the properties of developing economies with regard to the macroeconomic cycle.1 One such property that is characteristic of developing economies is large fluctuations in consumption. Meanwhile, aid for the low income countries is extremely volatile, and under certain circumstances, the volatile aid amplifies the consumption volatility. This document examines whether it is possible that the volatile aid yields high consumption volatility in African countries that constitute the majority of the low income countries. Our numerical analysis reveals that the strongly influential aid disbursements yield a considerably large fluctuation in consumption.

Large Fluctuations in Consumption in Least Developed Countries

The objective of this paper is to shed light on mechanism which increases fluctuation in consumption of least developed countries. In general large fluctuation in consumption makes consumers worse off. This fact suggests that accumulation of knowledge on the generating mechanism of the large consumption fluctuation very likely contributes to welfare improvement of the least developed countries, through policies stabilizing consumption. We specifically investigated the fluctuation in consumption, through the numerical analysis with a dynamic macroeconomic model.

Pro-poor growth or poverty trap? : estimating intergenerational income mobility in rural Philippines

Using an intergenerational database covering nearly a quarter of a century, we explored the degree of intergenerational income mobility among individuals who had grown up in rural Central Luzon, the Philippines. We found that the intergenerational income elasticity is significantly lower than unity, at roughly 0.23, indicating that the average income growth rate is higher for children born to poorer families. The detailed analysis, however, revealed that its magnitude significantly varies across percentiles in a U-shape. The results provide supporting evidence of multiple equilibria or poverty trap.

A note on three factor model of discounting

In Montiel Olea and Strzalecki (2014), authors have axiomatically developed an algorithm to infer the parameters of beta-delta model of cognitive bias (present and future biases). While this is extremely useful, it allows the implied beta to become very large when the response is impatient in the future choices relative to present choices, i.e., when there is a strong future bias. I modify the model to further exponentiate the functional form to get more reasonable beta values.