Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Intratumoral injection of an adenovirus expressing interleukin 2 induces regression and immunity in a murine breast cancer model.

Rodent tumor cells engineered to secrete cytokines such as interleukin 2 (IL-2) or IL-4 are rejected by syngeneic recipients due to an enhanced antitumor host immune response. An adenovirus vector (AdCAIL-2) containing the human IL-2 gene has been constructed and shown to direct secretion of high levels of human IL-2 in infected tumor cells. AdCAIL-2 induces regression of tumors in a transgenic mouse model of mammary adenocarcinoma following intratumoral injection. Elimination of existing tumors in this way results in immunity against a second challenge with tumor cells. These findings suggest that adenovirus vectors expressing cytokines may form the basis for highly effective immunotherapies of human cancers.

Occlusal outcomes and efficiency of 1-and 2-phase protocols in the treatment of Class II Division 1 malocclusion

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to compare the occlusal outcomes and the efficiency of 1-phase and 2-phase treatment protocols in Class II Division 1 malocclusions. Treatment efficiency was defined as a change in the occlusal characteristics in a shorter treatment time. Methods: Class II Division 1 subjects ( n = 139) were divided into 2 groups according to the treatment protocol for Class II correction. Group 1 comprised 78 patients treated with a 1-phase treatment protocol at initial and final mean ages of 12.51 and 14.68 years. Group 2 comprised 61 patients treated with a 2-phase treatment protocol at initial and final mean ages of 11.21 and 14.70 years. Lateral cephalometric radiographs were taken at the pretreatment stage to evaluate morphological differences in the groups. The initial and final study models of the patients were evaluated by using the peer assessment rating index. Chi-square tests were used to test for differences between the 2 groups for categorical variables. Variables regarding occlusal results were compared by using independent t tests. A linear regression analysis was completed, with total treatment time as the dependent variable, to identify clinical factors that predict treatment length for patients with Class II malocclusions. Results: Similar occlusal outcomes were obtained between the 1-phase and the 2-phase treatment protocols, but the duration of treatment was significantly shorter in the 1-phase treatment protocol group. Conclusions: Treatment of Class II Division 1 malocclusions is more efficient with the 1-phase than the 2-phase treatment protocol.

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Estimation of Gaussian process regression model using probability distance measures

A new class of parameter estimation algorithms is introduced for Gaussian process regression (GPR) models. It is shown that the integration of the GPR model with probability distance measures of (i) the integrated square error and (ii) Kullback–Leibler (K–L) divergence are analytically tractable. An efficient coordinate descent algorithm is proposed to iteratively estimate the kernel width using golden section search which includes a fast gradient descent algorithm as an inner loop to estimate the noise variance. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new identification approaches.

Size and power properties of some tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions, up to order n(-1/2) and under a sequence of Pitman alternatives, for the non-null distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation is presented in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. We also present two empirical applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Signed likelihood ratio tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is becoming increasingly popular in lifetime analyses and reliability studies. In this model, the signed likelihood ratio statistic provides the basis for testing inference and construction of confidence limits for a single parameter of interest. We focus on the small sample case, where the standard normal distribution gives a poor approximation to the true distribution of the statistic. We derive three adjusted signed likelihood ratio statistics that lead to very accurate inference even for very small samples. Two empirical applications are presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bootstrap percolation on homogeneous trees has 2 phase transitions

We study the threshold theta bootstrap percolation model on the homogeneous tree with degree b + 1, 2 <= theta <= b, and initial density p. It is known that there exists a nontrivial critical value for p, which we call p(f), such that a) for p > p(f), the final bootstrapped configuration is fully occupied for almost every initial configuration, and b) if p < p(f) , then for almost every initial configuration, the final bootstrapped configuration has density of occupied vertices less than 1. In this paper, we establish the existence of a distinct critical value for p, p(c), such that 0 < p(c) < p(f), with the following properties: 1) if p <= p(c), then for almost every initial configuration there is no infinite cluster of occupied vertices in the final bootstrapped configuration; 2) if p > p(c), then for almost every initial configuration there are infinite clusters of occupied vertices in the final bootstrapped configuration. Moreover, we show that 3) for p < p(c), the distribution of the occupied cluster size in the final bootstrapped configuration has an exponential tail; 4) at p = p(c), the expected occupied cluster size in the final bootstrapped configuration is infinite; 5) the probability of percolation of occupied vertices in the final bootstrapped configuration is continuous on [0, p(f)] and analytic on (p(c), p(f) ), admitting an analytic continuation from the right at p (c) and, only in the case theta = b, also from the left at p(f).

Milk yield persistency in Brazilian Gyr cattle based on a random regression model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Adsorption of silanes bearing nitrogenated Lewis bases on SiO 2/Si (100) model surfaces

The present paper describes the one-pot procedure for the formation of self-assembled thin films of two silanes on the model oxidized silicon wafer, SiO2/Si. SiO2/Si is a model system for other surfaces, such as glass, quartz, aerosol, and silica gel. MALDI-TOF MS with and without a matrix, XPS, and AFM have confirmed the formation of self-assembled thin films of both 3-imidazolylpropyltrimethoxysilane (3-IPTS) and 4-(N- propyltriethoxysilane-imino)pyridine (4-PTSIP) on the SiO2/Si surface after 30 min. Longer adsorption times lead to the deposition of nonreacted 3-IPTS precursors and the formation of agglomerates on the 3-IPTS monolayer. The formation of 4-PTSIP self-assembled layers on SiO2/Si is also demonstrated. The present results for the flat SiO2/Si surface can lead to a better understanding of the formation of a stationary phase for affinity chromatography as well as transition-metal-supported catalysts on silica and their relationship with surface roughness and ordering. The 3-IPTS and 4-PTSIP modified SiO2/Si wafers can also be envisaged as possible built-on-silicon thin-layer chromatography (TLC) extraction devices for metal determination or N-heterocycle analytes, such as histidine and histamine, with on-spot MALDI-TOF MS detection. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

The study introduces a new regression model developed to estimate the hourly values of diffuse solar radiation at the surface. The model is based on the clearness index and diffuse fraction relationship, and includes the effects of cloud (cloudiness and cloud type), traditional meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure observed at the surface) and air pollution (concentration of particulate matter observed at the surface). The new model is capable of predicting hourly values of diffuse solar radiation better than the previously developed ones (R-2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.085). A simple version with a large applicability is proposed that takes into consideration cloud effects only (cloudiness and cloud height) and shows a R-2 = 0.92. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

In this paper, we propose a cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Geometric distribution and the time to event follow a Birnbaum Saunders distribution. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a Geometric Birnbaum Saunders model with cure rate. Finally, to analyze a data set from the medical area. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.