A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Sequential screening

We present a model of price discrimination where a monopolistfaces a consumer who is privately informed about thedistribution of his valuation for an indivisible unit ofgood but has yet to learn privately the actual valuation.The monopolist sequentially screens the consumer with amenu of contracts:the consumer self-selects once by choosing a contract andthen self-selects again when he learns the actual valuation. A deterministic sequential mechanism is a menu of refundcontracts, each consisting of an advance payment and a refundamount in case of no consumption, but sequential mechanismsmay involve randomization.We characterize the optimal sequential mechanism when someconsumer types are more eager in the sense of first-orderstochastic dominance, and when some types face greatervaluation uncertainty in the sense of mean-preserving-spread.We show that it can be optimal to subsidize consumer typeswith smaller valuation uncertainty (through low refund, as inairplane ticket pricing) in order to reduce the rent to thosewith greater uncertainty. The size of distortion depends bothon the type distribution and on how informative the consumer'sinitial private knowledge is about his valuation, but noton how much he initially knows about the valuation per se.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

Do fly parasites of bats and their hosts coevolve?speciation in Trichobius phyllostomae group (Diptera, Streblidae) and their hosts (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae) suggests that they do not

We examined whether, like many parasite-host systems of coevolution, a group of obligate parasitic bat flies (Trichobius phyllostomae Kessel and related species) cospeciate with their hosts. We first did a cladistic analysis of the T. phyllostomae group and combined that analysis with a phylogenetic hypothesis from the literature for the Stenodermatinae bats. The cladistic analysis included, as outgroups, one species from each morphological group and complex of Trichobius Gervais, and one species from the following genera: Paratrichobius Miranda-Ribeiro, Megistopoda Macquart, Megistapophysys Dick & Wenzel, Neotrichobius Wenzel & Aitken, Speiseria Kessel and Strebla Wiedemann. The cladogram was rooted with a species of Strebla in the subfamily Streblinae. One cladogram was obtained and which found Trichobius to be polyphyletic. The phylogenetic hypothesis as follows: (Paratrichobius, (Neotrichobius, (Megistopoda, Megistapophysis)))) is the sister-group of the phyllostomae group and the following relationships within the ingroup, (((T. vampyropis Wenzel, Trichobius sp. 2) ((T. hispidus Wenzel, T. petersoni Wenzel) ((Trichobius sp. 1 (T. phyllostomae, T. brennani Wenzel))))). When we compared phylogenies through historical association analyses, cospeciation was uncommon, while host-switching was more common and better explained the association between the phyllostomae group and their bat hosts.

Phase 3 randomized trial on larynx preservation comparing sequential vs alternating chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Both induction chemotherapy followed by irradiation and concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy have been reported as valuable alternatives to total laryngectomy in patients with advanced larynx or hypopharynx cancer. We report results of the randomized phase 3 trial 24954 from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer. METHODS: Patients with resectable advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx (tumor stage T3-T4) or hypopharynx (T2-T4), with regional lymph nodes in the neck staged as N0-N2 and with no metastasis, were randomly assigned to treatment in the sequential (or control) or the alternating (or experimental) arm. In the sequential arm, patients with a 50% or more reduction in primary tumor size after two cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil received another two cycles, followed by radiotherapy (70 Gy total). In the alternating arm, a total of four cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10) were alternated with radiotherapy with 20 Gy during the three 2-week intervals between chemotherapy cycles (60 Gy total). All nonresponders underwent salvage surgery and postoperative radiotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to obtain time-to-event data. RESULTS: The 450 patients were randomly assigned to treatment (224 to the sequential arm and 226 to the alternating arm). Median follow-up was 6.5 years. Survival with a functional larynx was similar in sequential and alternating arms (hazard ratio of death and/or event = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.68 to 1.06), as were median overall survival (4.4 and 5.1 years, respectively) and median progression-free interval (3.0 and 3.1 years, respectively). Grade 3 or 4 mucositis occurred in 64 (32%) of the 200 patients in the sequential arm who received radiotherapy and in 47 (21%) of the 220 patients in the alternating arm. Late severe edema and/or fibrosis was observed in 32 (16%) patients in the sequential arm and in 25 (11%) in the alternating arm. CONCLUSIONS: Larynx preservation, progression-free interval, and overall survival were similar in both arms, as were acute and late toxic effects.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Nitrogen application timing and soil inorganic nitrogen dynamics under no-till oat/maize sequential cropping

The timing of N application to maize is a key factor to be considered in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of pre-planting, planting and sidedress N application on oat residue decomposition, on soil N immobilisation and remineralisation and on N uptake by maize plants in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping. Undisturbed soil cores of 10 and 20 cm diameter were collected from the 0-15 cm layer of a no-till Red Latossol, when the oat cover crop was in the milk-grain stage. Two greenhouse experiments were conducted simultaneously. Experiment A, established in the 10 cm diameter cores and without plant cultivation, was used to asses N dynamics in soil and oat residues. Experiment B, established in the 20 cm diameter cores and with maize cultivation, was used to assess plant growth and N uptake. An amount of 6.0 Mg ha-1 dry matter of oat residues was spread on the surface of the cores. A rate of 90 kg N ha-1 applied as ammonium sulphate in both experiments was split in pre-planting, planting and sidedress applications as follows: (a) 00-00-00 (control), (b) 90-00-00 (pre-planting application, 20 days before planting), (c) 00-90-00 (planting application), (d) 00-30-60 (split in a planting and a sidedress application 31 days after emergence), (e) 00-00-00* (control, without oat residue) and (f) 90-00-00* (pre-planting application, without oat residue). The N concentration and N content in oat residues were not affected during decomposition by N fertilisation. Most of the fertiliser NH4+-N was converted into NO3--N within 20 days after application. A significant decrease in NO3--N contents in the 0-4 cm layer was observed in all treatments between 40 and 60 days after the oat residue placement on the soil surface, suggesting the occurrence of N immobilisation in this period. Considering that most of the inorganic N was converted into NO3- and that no immobilisation of the pre planting fertiliser N occurred at the time of its application, it was possible to conclude that pre-planting applied N was prone to losses by leaching. On the other hand, with split N applications, maize plants showed N deficiency symptoms before sidedress application. Two indications for fertiliser-N management in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping could be suggested: (a) in case of split application, the sidedress should be earlier than 30 days after emergence, and (b) if integral application is preferred to save field operations, this should be done at planting.

Speciation in the Sorex araneus (Mammalia, Insectivora)

The seven cytologically known species of the Sorex araneus complex each show a different karyotype. The three European species are genetically and morphologically very close, and mostly allopatric, thus having similar ecological requirements. It is suggested that chromosomic changes occasion a stasipatric speciation, the formation of chromosomic races in S. araneus being an illustration of this process. Neither small demes nor high inbreeding are likely in Sorex; thus the Robertsonian changes should spread out by meiotic drive alone, and the hybrids for a change should be almost fully fertile. Chromosomic speciation occurs when two incompatible metacentrics meet together. This model explains the separation between S. araneus and S. coronatus, but geographical isolation must have occured in the case of S. granarius, which keeps a primitive karyotype.

Sequential or concomitant chemotherapy in limited stage small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: Chemotherapy (CT) combined with radiation therapy (RT) is the standard treatment for limited disease small-cell lung cancer (LDSCLC). Many questions including RT dose, fractionation, and sequence of RT/CT administration remain controversial. In this paper, we retrospectively assessed the outcome of patients with LDSCLC treated with radiation of at least 50 Gy.METHODS AND MATERIALS: From December 1997 to January 2006, 69 consecutive patients with LDSCLC were treated at our institutions. Treatment consisted of at least 4 cycles of CT, and 3D conformal thoracic RT. The median age was 61 years (range, 37-78 years). Sequential or concomitant CT/RT was given in 47 (68%) and 22 (32%) of the patients, respectively. The median RT dose was 60 Gy. Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was administered in 47 (68%) patients.RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 36 months (range, 6-107), 16 patients were alive without disease. The median overall survival time was 24 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 29%. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) and loco-regional control (LRC) rates were 23% and 60%, respectively. A better DFS was significantly associated with performance status (PS) 0 (p = 0.004), complete response to treatment (p = 0.03), and PCI group (p = 0.03). A trend towards improved overall survival (OS) was observed for patients who underwent PCI (p = 0.07). Patients treated with sequential CT/RT had a better outcome than those treated with concomitant treatment (3-year DFS rate 27% vs. 13%; p = 0.04). However, PCI was delivered more frequently for the sequential group. No significant dose-response relationship was found in terms of LRC. The multivariate analysis showed that complete response to treatment was the only significant factor for OS.CONCLUSION: Complete response to treatment was the most important factor for OS. A better DFS was significantly associated with the PCI group. We did not find a significant difference in outcome between patients receiving doses of 60 Gy or more and patients receiving 60 Gy or less.

Auction theory, sequential local service privatization, and the effects of geographical scale economies on effective competition

A sequential weakly efficient two-auction game with entry costs, interdependence between objects, two potential bidders and IPV assumption is presented here in order to give some theoretical predictions on the effects of geographical scale economies on local service privatization performance. It is shown that the first object seller takes profit of this interdependence. The interdependence externality rises effective competition for the first object, expressed as the probability of having more than one final bidder. Besides, if there is more than one final bidder in the first auction, seller extracts the entire bidder¿s expected future surplus differential between having won the first auction and having lost. Consequences for second object seller are less clear, reflecting the contradictory nature of the two main effects of object interdependence. On the one hand, first auction winner becomes ¿stronger¿, so that expected payments rise in a competitive environment. On the other hand, first auction loser becomes relatively ¿weaker¿, hence (probably) reducing effective competition for the second object. Additionally, some contributions to static auction theory with entry cost and asymmetric bidders are presented in the appendix

Sequential decisions in allocation problems

[eng] In the context of cooperative TU-games, and given an order of players, we consider the problem of distributing the worth of the grand coalition as a sequentia decision problem. In each step of process, upper and lower bounds for the payoff of the players are required related to successive reduced games. Sequentially compatible payoffs are defined as those allocation vectors that meet these recursive bounds. The core of the game is reinterpreted as a set of sequentally compatible payoffs when the Davis-Maschler reduced game is considered (Th.1). Independently of the reduction, the core turns out to be the intersections of the family of the sets of sequentially compatible payoffs corresponding to the different possible orderings (Th.2), so it is in some sense order-independent. Finally, we analyze advantagenous properties for the first player