Explaining economic growth in developed economies after 1980

We use the Aguion and Howitt (2009) theoretical model of endogenous economic growth to explain the declining economic growth in developed economies in the period 1981-2009. Aguion and Howitt theoretical framework combines Solownian and Schumpeterian elements in a single scenario, so that labor-augmenting technological progress and capital accumulation per efficiency unit of labor are both caused not only by exogenous changes in the investment rate but also by shocks to the degree of efficiency in the Research and Development (R&D) expenditure process. Empirical results revealed that per worker output growth rates and capital stock per efficiency unit of labor growth rates both have a common panel unit root. Since the panel cointegration tests and estimates revealed a statistical significant negative long-run relationship between per worker output growth rate and capital stock per efficiency unit of labor, the interpretation of the econometric results analized from the Aguion and Howitt ́s theoretical perspective is that labor-augmenting technological progress is endogenously falling over time mainly because of an exogenous deterioration of the environment conditions for the transformation of the investment rate and R&D expenditures in technological progress.

Foreign direct investment, exports, gross domestic product and the labor market in Puerto Rico

In this paper, a vector autorregresive model (VAR) is applied to examine the interrelationship among foreign direct investment, exports, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rate and labor force participation rate in Puerto Rico, taking into account a time period that includes the fiscal years from 1980 to 2010 -- Four cointegrating vectors were found in the system which indicates that there is a long run relationship between the variables -- The findings suggest that consecutive increases in foreign direct investment inflows could significantly reduce the unemployment rate and increase interest in joining the labor force in Puerto Rico -- The same result also applies to increases in export levels -- The variations in Gross Domestic Product are mainly explained in the long run by the unemployment rate

A Longitudinal Three-Center Study of Dental Arch Relationship in Patients With Bilateral Cleft Lip and Palate

Objective: To compare and evaluate longitudinally the dental arch relationships from 4.5 to 13.5 years of age with the Bauru-BCLP Yardstick in a large sample of patients with bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP). Design: Retrospective longitudinal intercenter outcome study. Patients: Dental casts of 204 consecutive patients with complete BCLP were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years of age. All models were identified only by random identification numbers. Setting: Three cleft palate centers with different treatment protocols. Main Outcome Measures: Dental arch relationships were categorized with the Bauru-BCLP yardstick. Increments for each interval (from 6 to 9 years, 6 to 12 years, and 9 to 12 years) were analyzed by logistic and linear regression models. Results: There were no significant differences in outcome measures between the centers at age 12 or at age 9. At age 6, center B showed significantly better results (p = .027), but this difference diminished as the yardstick score for this group increased over time (linear regression analysis), the difference with the reference category (center C, boys) for the intervals 6 to 12 and 9 to 12 years being 10.4% (p = .041) and 12.9% (p = .009), respectively. Conclusions: Despite different treatment protocols, dental arch relationships in the three centers were comparable in final scores at age 9 and 12 years. Delaying hard palate closure and employing infant orthopedics did not appear to be advantageous in the long run. Premaxillary osteotomy employed in center B appeared to be associated with less favorable development of the dental arch relationship between 9 and 12 years.

A longitudinal three-center study of dental arch relationship in patients with bilateral cleft lip and palate

OBJECTIVE: To compare and evaluate longitudinally the dental arch relationships from 4.5 to 13.5 years of age with the Bauru-BCLP Yardstick in a large sample of patients with bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP). DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal intercenter outcome study. PATIENTS: Dental casts of 204 consecutive patients with complete BCLP were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years of age. All models were identified only by random identification numbers. SETTING: Three cleft palate centers with different treatment protocols. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Dental arch relationships were categorized with the Bauru-BCLP yardstick. Increments for each interval (from 6 to 9 years, 6 to 12 years, and 9 to 12 years) were analyzed by logistic and linear regression models. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in outcome measures between the centers at age 12 or at age 9. At age 6, center B showed significantly better results (p=.027), but this difference diminished as the yardstick score for this group increased over time (linear regression analysis), the difference with the reference category (center C, boys) for the intervals 6 to 12 and 9 to 12 years being 10.4% (p=.041) and 12.9% (p=.009), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite different treatment protocols, dental arch relationships in the three centers were comparable in final scores at age 9 and 12 years. Delaying hard palate closure and employing infant orthopedics did not appear to be advantageous in the long run. Premaxillary osteotomy employed in center B appeared to be associated with less favorable development of the dental arch relationship between 9 and 12 years.

Hirschman meets Williamson: Relationship-specific investment and loyalty

In Albert Hirschman’s theory, loyalty plays a key role in the equilibrium between exit and voice. This article extends economic (rational choice) analysis to the emergence of loyalty, which Hirschman considers an exogenous factor. This is accomplished by linking Williamson’s theory of specific investment to Hirschman’s model. Three cases are distinguished: (1) loyalty is due to specific investment; (2) loyalty is due to (intermediate) factors influenced by specific investment; and, (3) loyalty is independent of specific investment. A simple model formalizes the first case. A paradoxical dynamic of loyalty is identified: a lower degree of specificity may lead to a weakening of loyalty in the short run but astrengthening of loyalty in the long run. An application to the process of European integration is sketched.

Vortex Shedding Dynamics in Long Aspect-Ratio Aerodynamics Bodies

The focus of the current dissertation is to study qualitatively the underlying physics of vortex-shedding and wake dynamics in long aspect-ratio aerodynamics in incompressible viscous flow through the use of the KLE method. We carried out a long series of numerical experiments in the cases of flow around the cylinder at low Reynolds numbers. The study of flow at low Reynolds numbers provides an insight in the fluid physics and also plays a critical role when applying to stalled turbine rotors. Many of the conclusions about the qualitative nature of the physical mechanisms characterizing vortex formation, shedding and further interaction analyzed here at low Re could be extended to other Re regimes and help to understand the separation of the boundary layers in airfoils and other aerodynamic surfaces. In the long run, it aims to provide a better understanding of the complex multi-physics problems involving fluid-structure-control interaction through improved mathematical computational models of the multi-physics process. Besides the scientific conclusions produced, the research work on streamlined and bluff-body condition will also serve as a valuable guide for the future design of blade aerodynamics and the placement of wind turbines and hydrakinetic turbines, increasing the efficiency in the use of expensive workforce, supplies, and infrastructure. After the introductory section describing the main fields of application of wind power and hydrokinetic turbines, we describe the main features and theoretical background of the numerical method used here. Then, we present the analysis of the numerical experimentation results for the oscillatory regime right before the onset of vortex shedding for circular cylinders. We verified the wake length of the closed near-wake behind the cylinder and analysed the decay of the wake at the wake formation region, and then studied the St-Re relationship at the Reynolds numbers before the wake sheds compared to the experimental data. We found a theoretical model that describes the time evolution of the amplitude of fluctuations in the vorticity field on the twin vortex wake, which accurately matches the numerical results in terms of the frequency of the oscillation and rate of decay. We also proposed a model based on an analog circuit that is able to interpret the concerning flow by reducing the number of degrees of freedom. It follows the idea of the non-linear oscillator and resembles the dynamics mechanism of the closed near-wake with a common configured sine wave oscillator. This low-dimensional circuital model may also help to understand the underlying physical mechanisms, related to vorticity transport, that give origin to those oscillations.

Essays in Economic Geography and Long-Term Development

This dissertation has two main themes: first, the economic impact of tourism on cities and, secondly, the determinants of European long-run development, with a focus on the pre-Industrial era. The common thread is the attempt to develop economic geography models that incorporate spatial frictions and are liable to be given empirical content. Chapter 1, written in conjunction with G. Alfredo Minerva, provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism and economic activity across Italian municipalities, and lays down the basic elements of an urban theory of tourism in an a-spatial setting. Chapter 2 extends these ideas to a quantitative urban framework to study the economic impact and the welfare consequences of tourism into the city of Venice. The model is given empirical content thanks to a large collection of data at the Census tract level for the Municipality of Venice, and then used to perform counterfactual policty analysis. In chapter 3, with Matteo Santacesaria, we consider a setting where agents are continuously distributed over a two-dimensional heterogeneous geography, and are allowed to do business at a finite set of markets. We study the equilibrium partition of the economic space into a collection of mutually-exclusive market areas, and provide condition for this equilibrium partition to exist and to be unique. Finally, chapter 4 "The rise of (urban) Europe: a Quantitative-Spatial analysis", co-authored with Matteo Cervellati and Alex Lehner, sets up a quantitative economic geography model to understand the roots of the Industrial Revolution, in an attempt to match the evolution of the European urban network, and the corresponding city-size distribution, over the period A.D. 1000-1850. It highlights the importance of agricultural trade across cities for the emergence of large manufacturing hubs.

Heterogeneity, saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in Latin America

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of national saving-investment relationship in order to determine the degree of capital mobility in 12 Latin American countries. The analytically relevant correlation is the short-term one, defined as that between changes in saving and investment. Of special interest is the speed at which variables return to the long run equilibrium relationship, which is interpreted as being negatively related to the degree of capital mobility. The long run correlation, in turn, captures the coefficient implied by the solvency constraint. We find that heterogeneity and cross-section dependence completely change the estimation of the long run coefficient. Besides we obtain a more precise short run coefficient estimate compared to the existent estimates in the literature. There is evidence of an intermediate degree of capital mobility, and the coefficients are extremely stable over time.

Pricing intraday dynamics across EUAS and CERS markets

The relative contribution of European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) to the price discovery of their common true value has been empirically studied using daily data with inconclusive results. In this paper, we study the short-run and long-run price dynamics between EUAs and CERs future contracts using intraday data. We report a bidirectional feedback causality relationship both in the short-run and in the long-run, with the EUA's market being the leader.

Plano estratégico “Empowering Lab ESEIG”

Os jovens ao longo do seu percurso escolar têm aspirações e expetativas elevadas quanto ao valor de empregabilidade dos diplomas a que tiveram acesso em todos os graus de ensino. Contudo, no recente contexto de crise económica, essas aspirações e expetativas socialmente nutridas pela escola e pela família têm sido em grande medida frustradas pelas crescentes dificuldades que os jovens portugueses de hoje têm vivido nos seus processos de inserção profissional. A nível individual, um jovem que passe um longo período inativo tem grandes probabilidades de sofrer de baixa autoestima, exclusão social ou de um “wage scar”, isto é, de no futuro ter um rendimento abaixo do rendimento médio de pessoas com formação e experiência equivalentes além de desenvolverem uma atitude passiva e falta de participação social, o que no longo prazo acaba por ter implicações negativas para a sociedade como um todo. Conscientes desta realidade e sabendo que as incubadoras de negócios podem transmitir confiança à comunidade financeira e apoiar as startups, promovendo uma cultura de empreendedorismo e agindo como um catalisador para o desenvolvimento de estruturas de suporte de negócios mais amplas, partimos para o estudo da incubação de negócios com o intuito de traçar um plano estratégico para a Escola Superior de Estudos Industriais e de Gestão (ESEIG) que permitisse desenvolver a cultura empreendedora da sua comunidade e por esta via dar o seu contributo para a resolução da crise económica que o país atravessa. Começamos por fazer um enquadramento teórico da incubação de negócios e rapidamente percebemos que, sendo a ESEIG uma instituição de ensino superior, era importante incluir no estudo os conceitos de empreendedorismo e inovação e perceber ao nível teórico como funciona a relação Universidade-Empresa. De seguida, fomos para o “terreno” e percebemos que a solução para este desafio passaria por capacitar os alunos da ESEIG com as competências empresariais e empreendedoras necessárias para o desenvolvimento de qualquer empreendimento autonomamente. Faltava agora perceber qual a melhor forma de concretizar este ambicioso objetivo. Após um pouco mais de estudo, percebemos que, a paixão está no centro de empreendedorismo juntamente com outras dimensões afetivas e emocionais e pode estimular a criatividade e o reconhecimento de novos padrões de informação fundamental para a descoberta e exploração de oportunidades promissoras. Por sua vez, a alegria local (escolas, cidades, regiões, países) está associada a uma maior atividade empreendedora, o humor e sentimentos positivos, bem como a satisfação de vida geram efeitos benéficos, como melhor desempenho nas tarefas e produtividade, evolução na carreira e sucesso pessoal e maior propensão para assumir riscos. Percebemos então que é necessário desenvolver uma cultura de positividade, pelo que, sugerimos a implementação do novo quadro conceptual PROSPER (Positivity; Relationships; Outcomes; Strengths; Purpose; Engagement; Resilience) que tem o potencial de ser usado como uma ferramenta organizacional para a implementação dos sete principais componentes de bem-estar. Cientes de que o objetivo final é aumentar a intenção empreendedora dos estudantes, bem como o número efetivo de empreendedores, definimos como objetivos, promover o valor do empreendedorismo na criação de oportunidades e no desenvolvimento das competências dos estudantes (Engaging), fornecer aos estudantes oportunidades de aprendizagem empresarial (Empowering) e apoiar os estudantes na criação e no desenvolvimento de negócios (Equipping). Neste sentido, sugerimos diversas ações que materializam estes objetivos. Para finalizar, utilizamos um Lean Canvas com o intuito de concretizar a nossa proposta estratégica para ESEIG, que culmina com a criação do Empowering Lab ESEIG.

The trading relationship between the EU and Mercosur: the mediatory role of Brazil

Dissertação de mestrado em European and Transglobal Business Law

Sinistralidade rodoviária e o marketing relacional: perspetivas de soluções mais eficazes no seu combate em Portugal

Dissertação de mestrado em Marketing e Estratégia

The structural approach of a natrex model on equilibrium exchange rates

Following a general macroeconomic approach, this paper sets a closed micro-founded structural model to determine the long run real exchange rate of a developed economy. In particular, the analysis follows the structure of a Natrex model. The main contribution of this research paper is the development of a solid theoretical framework that analyse in depth the basis of the real exchange rate and the details of the equilibrium dynamics after any shock influencing the steady state. In our case, the intertemporal factors derived from the stock-flow relationship will be particularly determinant. The main results of the paper can be summarised as follows. In first place, a complete well-integrated structural model for long-run real exchange rate determination is developed from first principles. Moreover, within the concrete dynamics of the model, it is found that some convergence restrictions will be necessary. On one hand, for the medium run convergence the sensitivity of the trade balance to changes in real exchange rate should be higher that the correspondent one to the investment decisions. On the other hand, and regarding long-run convergence, it is also necessary both that there exists a negative relationship between investment and capital stock accumulation and that the global saving of the economy depends positively on net foreign debt accumulation. In addition, there are also interesting conclusions about the effects that certain shocks over the exogenous variables of the model have on real exchange rates.

Employment and public capital in spain

This paper analyses the e¤ects on employment of increasing the stock of public capital. To this end, we derive a wage equation so that wages are endogenized. This allows us to show that, by means of a higher elasticity of labour demand with respect to wages, a rise in public capital increases employment. The estimation of a structural model for the Spanish private sector tests and con…rms empirically this relationship. The results show that an increase in public capital has a significant and positive direct influence on employment, and indirect e¤ects derived from lower wages and higher economic growth. Finally, we undertake a simulation exercise to assess the long run efects on employment and economic growth of increasing public capital.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.