Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

The new final Clinical Skills examination in human medicine in Switzerland: Essential steps of exam development, implementation and evaluation, and central insights from the perspective of the national Working Group.

OBJECTIVE: Since 2011, the new national final examination in human medicine has been implemented in Switzerland, with a structured clinical-practical part in the OSCE format. From the perspective of the national Working Group, the current article describes the essential steps in the development, implementation and evaluation of the Federal Licensing Examination Clinical Skills (FLE CS) as well as the applied quality assurance measures. Finally, central insights gained from the last years are presented. METHODS: Based on the principles of action research, the FLE CS is in a constant state of further development. On the foundation of systematically documented experiences from previous years, in the Working Group, unresolved questions are discussed and resulting solution approaches are substantiated (planning), implemented in the examination (implementation) and subsequently evaluated (reflection). The presented results are the product of this iterative procedure. RESULTS: The FLE CS is created by experts from all faculties and subject areas in a multistage process. The examination is administered in German and French on a decentralised basis and consists of twelve interdisciplinary stations per candidate. As important quality assurance measures, the national Review Board (content validation) and the meetings of the standardised patient trainers (standardisation) have proven worthwhile. The statistical analyses show good measurement reliability and support the construct validity of the examination. Among the central insights of the past years, it has been established that the consistent implementation of the principles of action research contributes to the successful further development of the examination. CONCLUSION: The centrally coordinated, collaborative-iterative process, incorporating experts from all faculties, makes a fundamental contribution to the quality of the FLE CS. The processes and insights presented here can be useful for others planning a similar undertaking.

Eligibility to treatment and economic effect of the implementation of the new U.S. or European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology hypertension guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the population and economic impact of implementing the new Joint National Committee (JNC) or European Society of Hypertension (ESH)/European Society of Cardiology (ESC) hypertension guidelines in the Swiss population. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based sample (6708 participants) collected between 2003 and 2006 in the city of Lausanne, Switzerland. Blood pressure categories were defined according to both the JNC (JNC-7 and JNC-8) and the ESH/ESC (2007 and 2013) guidelines. RESULTS: The proportion of participants aged 35-60 years eligible for drug treatment was 25.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24.4-26.9%] and 24.8% (95% CI 23.6-26.0%) for the JNC-7 and the JNC-8 guidelines, respectively; for participants aged 60-75 years, the values were 62.3% (95% CI 60.1-64.5%) and 46.8% (95% CI 44.5-49.0%), respectively. Shifting from the JNC-7 to the JNC-8 guidelines would lead to an annual saving of 163.6 million Swiss francs (187.7 million US dollars or 134.5 million European euro). The proportion of participants aged 35-75 years without chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus or reported history of cardiovascular disease and eligible for treatment was 30.2% (95% CI 29.0-31.4%) for the ESH/ESC 2007 and 2013 guidelines. For participants with chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus or reported history of cardiovascular disease, the values were 73.6% (95% CI 70.8-76.3%) and 55.6% (95% CI 52.5-58.8%), respectively. Shifting from the ESH/ESC 2007 to the ESH/ESC 2013 guidelines would lead to an annual saving of 86.9 million Swiss francs (99.5 million US dollars or 71.4 million European euro). CONCLUSION: In Switzerland, shifting from the JNC-7 to the JNC-8 guidelines or from the ESH/ESC 2007 to the ESH/ESC 2013 guidelines would decrease the prevalence of patients eligible for treatment and increase the percentage of treated patients within blood pressure goals. Both strategies lead to potential savings in antihypertensive drug treatment.

The use of mixed methods research in the behavioral sciences field

Mixed methods research involves the combined use of quantitative and qualitative methods in the same research study, and it is becoming increasingly important in several scientific areas. The aim of this paper is to review and compare through a mixed methods multiple-case study the application of this methodology in three reputable behavioural science journals: the Journal of Organizational Behavior, Addictive Behaviors and Psicothema. A quantitative analysis was carried out to review all the papers published in these journals during the period 2003-2008 and classify them into two blocks: theoretical and empirical, with the latter being further subdivided into three subtypes (quantitative, qualitative and mixed). A qualitative analysis determined the main characteristics of the mixed methods studies identified, in order to describe in more detail the ways in which the two methods are combined based on their purpose, priority, implementation and research design. From the journals selected, a total of 1.958 articles were analysed, the majority of which corresponded to empirical studies, with only a small number referring to research that used mixed methods. Nonetheless, mixed methods research does appear in all the behavioural science journals studied within the period selected, showing a range of designs, where the sequential equal weight mixed methods research design seems to stand out.

ContinuousMultimodal Global Optimization with Differential Evolution-Based Methods

Metaheuristic methods have become increasingly popular approaches in solving global optimization problems. From a practical viewpoint, it is often desirable to perform multimodal optimization which, enables the search of more than one optimal solution to the task at hand. Population-based metaheuristic methods offer a natural basis for multimodal optimization. The topic has received increasing interest especially in the evolutionary computation community. Several niching approaches have been suggested to allow multimodal optimization using evolutionary algorithms. Most global optimization approaches, including metaheuristics, contain global and local search phases. The requirement to locate several optima sets additional requirements for the design of algorithms to be effective in both respects in the context of multimodal optimization. In this thesis, several different multimodal optimization algorithms are studied in regard to how their implementation in the global and local search phases affect their performance in different problems. The study concentrates especially on variations of the Differential Evolution algorithm and their capabilities in multimodal optimization. To separate the global and local search search phases, three multimodal optimization algorithms are proposed, two of which hybridize the Differential Evolution with a local search method. As the theoretical background behind the operation of metaheuristics is not generally thoroughly understood, the research relies heavily on experimental studies in finding out the properties of different approaches. To achieve reliable experimental information, the experimental environment must be carefully chosen to contain appropriate and adequately varying problems. The available selection of multimodal test problems is, however, rather limited, and no general framework exists. As a part of this thesis, such a framework for generating tunable test functions for evaluating different methods of multimodal optimization experimentally is provided and used for testing the algorithms. The results demonstrate that an efficient local phase is essential for creating efficient multimodal optimization algorithms. Adding a suitable global phase has the potential to boost the performance significantly, but the weak local phase may invalidate the advantages gained from the global phase.

Sales and Operations Planning Implementation

The master’s thesis focused on implementing a sales and operations planning process. The main objectives were to create planning methods and tools for the implementation. The ultimate goal of the process, beyond this master’s thesis, is to balance the supply of products with customer demand, with optimized profitability. The theoretical part focused on giving a thorough view on the sales and operations planning process. The basis for a monthly planning cycle was identified. Methods, tools, and metrics for demand forecasting and operations planning were also introduced. Based on the theoretical part, a method for forecasting, a forecast spreadsheet, and a forecast accuracy metric were designed. A spreadsheet tool and methods were also designed for the monthly planning of production volumes, capacity, and inventory. The implementation progress was reviewed for two product families for three months. The sales and operations planning process was able to successfully identify a demand peak for the product families. Suggestions for the future of sales and operations planning were also made.

Strategic Development of Electricity Distribution Networks – Concept and Methods

Strategic development of distribution networks plays a key role in the asset management in electricity distribution companies. Owing to the capital-intensive nature of the field and longspan operations of companies, the significance of a strategy is emphasised. A well-devised strategy combines awareness of challenges posed by the operating environment and the future targets of the distribution company. Economic regulation, ageing infrastructure, scarcity of resources and tightening supply requirements with challenges created by the climate change put a pressure on the strategy work. On the other hand, technology development related to network automation and underground cabling assists in answering these challenges. This dissertation aims at developing process knowledge and establishing a methodological framework by which key issues related to network development can be addressed. Moreover, the work develops tools by which the effects of changes in the operating environment on the distribution business can be analysed in the strategy work. To this end, the work discusses certain characteristics of the distribution business and describes the strategy process at a principle level. Further, the work defines the subtasks in the strategy process and presents the key elements in the strategy work and long-term network planning. The work delineates the factors having either a direct or indirect effect on strategic planning and development needs in the networks; in particular, outage costs constitute an important part of the economic regulation of the distribution business, reliability being thus a key driver in network planning. The dissertation describes the methodology and tools applied to cost and reliability analyses in the strategy work. The work focuses on determination of the techno-economic feasibility of different network development technologies; these feasibility surveys are linked to the economic regulation model of the distribution business, in particular from the viewpoint of reliability of electricity supply and allowed return. The work introduces the asset management system developed for research purposes and to support the strategy work, the calculation elements of the system and initial data used in the network analysis. The key elements of this asset management system are utilised in the dissertation. Finally, the study addresses the stages of strategic decision-making and compilation of investment strategies. Further, the work illustrates implementation of strategic planning in an actual distribution company environment.

Implementing a Cancer Fast-track programme between primary and specialised care in Catalonia(Spain): amixed methods study

BACKGROUND: The Cancer Fast-track Programme's aim was to reduce the time that elapsed between well-founded suspicion of breast, colorectal and lung cancer and the start of initial treatment in Catalonia (Spain). We sought to analyse its implementation and overall effectiveness. METHODS: A quantitative analysis of the programme was performed using data generated by the hospitals on the basis of seven fast-track monitoring indicators for the period 2006-2009. In addition, we conducted a qualitative study, based on 83 semistructured interviews with primary and specialised health professionals and health administrators, to obtain their perception of the programme's implementation. RESULTS: About half of all new patients with breast, lung or colorectal cancer were diagnosed via the fast track, though the cancer detection rate declined across the period. Mean time from detection of suspected cancer in primary care to start of initial treatment was 32 days for breast, 30 for colorectal and 37 for lung cancer (2009). Professionals associated with the implementation of the programme showed that general practitioners faced with suspicion of cancer had changed their conduct with the aim of preventing lags. Furthermore, hospitals were found to have pursued three specific implementation strategies (top-down, consensus-based and participatory), which made for the cohesion and sustainability of the circuits. CONCLUSION: The programme has contributed to speeding up diagnostic assessment and treatment of patients with suspicion of cancer, and to clarifying the patient pathway between primary and specialised care.

Project owner’s and outside engineering consultant’s role in power plant implementation projects

The purpose of this study was to investigate the nature of co-operation between a project owner and an outside engineering consultant in combined heat and power plant implementation projects. Moreover, as another focal subject of the study was to familiarize the purchasing behavior of the energy producer and how an outside engineering consultant participated into different stages of the purchasing process. The study was carried out as a multiple case study including altogether six Finnish power plant implementation projects that had been taken into commercial use during 1995 – 2015. By adjusting the findings of empirical interview data and comparing those to the theoretical framework concerning, among others, Finnish energy production, engineering consulting businesses, delivery methods of construction project and finally the purchasing process, it can be concluded that especially in the power plant implementation projects in the past have a great influence to decisions made during the project. The role of the main engineering consultant is to act as an assistant, who helps to achieve the project goals successfully rather than an advisor who only knows how the project should be conducted. At least in these five project cases this was the case, meaning that the final decision power always remaining with project owner.

Multilevel converter modulation: implementation and analysis

Multilevel converters provide an attractive solution to bring the benefits of speed-controlled rotational movement to high-power applications. Therefore, multilevel inverters have attracted wide interest in both the academic community and in the industry for the past two decades. In this doctoral thesis, modulation methods suitable especially for series connected H-bridge multilevel inverters are discussed. A concept of duty cycle modulation is presented and its modification is proposed. These methods are compared with other well-known modulation schemes, such as space-vector pulse width modulation and carrier-based modulation schemes. The advantage of the modified duty-cycle modulation is its algorithmic simplicity. A similar mathematical formulation for the original duty cycle modulation is proposed. The modified duty cycle modulation is shown to produce well-formed phase-to-neutral voltages that have lower total harmonic distortion than the space-vector pulse width modulation and the duty cycle modulation. The space-vector-based solution and the duty cycle modulation, on the other hand, result in a better-quality line-to-line voltage and current waveform. The voltage of the DC links in the modules of the series-connected H-bridge inverter are shown to fluctuate while they are under load. The fluctuation causes inaccuracies in the voltage production, which may result in a failure of the flux estimator in the controller. An extension for upper-level modulation schemes, which changes the switching instants of the inverter so that the output voltage meets the reference voltage accurately regardless of the DC link voltages, is proposed. The method is shown to reduce the error to a very low level when a sufficient switching frequency is used. An appropriate way to organize the switching instants of the multilevel inverter is to make only one-level steps at a time. This causes restrictions on the dynamical features of the modulation schemes. The produced voltage vector cannot be rotated several tens of degrees in a single switching period without violating the above-mentioned one-level-step rule. The dynamical capabilities of multilevel inverters are analyzed in this doctoral thesis, and it is shown that the multilevel inverters are capable of operating even in dynamically demanding metal industry applications. In addition to the discussion on modulation schemes, an overvoltage in multilevel converter drives caused by cable reflection is addressed. The voltage reflection phenomenon in drives with long feeder cables causes premature insulation deterioration and also affects the commonmode voltage, which is one of the main reasons for bearing currents. Bearing currents, on the other hand, cause fluting in the bearings, which results in premature bearing failure. The reflection phenomenon is traditionally prevented by filtering, but in this thesis, a modulationbased filterless method to mitigate the overvoltage in multilevel drives is proposed. Moreover, the mitigation method can be implemented as an extension for upper-level modulation schemes. The method exploits the oscillations caused by two consecutive voltage edges so that the sum of the oscillations results in a mitigated peak of the overvoltage. The applicability of the method is verified by simulations together with experiments with a full-scale prototype.

The Methods of Possible Joint Treatment of Manure and Sewage Sludge in the Leningrad Region

The nutrient load to the Gulf of Finland has started to increase as a result of the strong economic recovery in agriculture and livestock farming in the Leningrad region. Also sludge produced from municipal wastewater treatment plant of the Leningrad region causes the great impact on the environment, but still the main options for its treatment is disposal on the sludge beds or Landfills. The aim of this study was to evaluate the implementation of possible joint treatment methods of manure form livestock and poultry enterprises and sewage sludge produced from municipal wastewater treatment plants in the Leningrad region. The study is based on published data. The most attention was put on the anaerobic digestion and incineration methods. The manure and sewage sludge generation for the whole Leningrad region and energy potential produced from their treatment were estimated. The calculations showed that total amount of sewage sludge generation is 1 348 000 t/a calculated on wet matter and manure generation is 3 445 000 t/a calculated on wet matter. The potential heat release from anaerobic digestion process and incineration process is 4 880 000 GJ/a and 5 950 000 GJ/a, respectively. Furthermore, the work gives the overview of the general Russian and Finnish legislation concerning manure and sewage sludge treatment. In the Gatchina district it was chosen the WWTP and livestock and poultry enterprises for evaluation of the centralized treatment plant implementation based on anaerobic digestion and incineration methods. The electricity and heat power of plant based on biogas combustion process is 4.3 MW and 7.8 MW, respectively. The electricity and heat power of plant based on manure and sewage sludge incineration process is 3.0 MW and 6.1 MW, respectively.

Estimation of evaporation in the Banabuiú dam, in the state of Ceará, Brazil, by different combined methods, derived from the Penman equation

The state of Ceará, Brazil, has 75% of its area covered by Brazilian semiarid, with its peculiar features. In this state, the dams are constituted in water structure of strategic importance, ensuring, both in time and space, the development and supply of water to population. However, construction of reservoirs results in various impacts that should be carefully observed when deciding on their implementation. One of the impacts identified as negative is the increased evaporation, which constitutes a major component of water balance in reservoirs, especially in arid regions. Several methods for estimating evaporation have been proposed over time, many of them deriving from the Penman equation. This study evaluated six different methods for estimating evaporation in order to determine the most suitable for use in hydrological models for water balance in reservoirs in the state of Ceará. The tested methods were proposed by Penman, Kohler-Nordenson-Fox, Priestley-Taylor, deBruim-Keijman, Brutsaert-Stricker and deBruim. The methods presented good performance when tested for water balance during the dry season, and the Priestley-Taylor was the most appropriate, since the data from de simulated water balance with evaporation estimated by this method were the closest of the water balance data observed from measures of reservoir level and the elevation-volume curve provided by the Company of Management of Water Resources of the state of Ceará - COGERH.

Northern Landscapes : ʻʻImplementation of the European Landscape Convention In the North Calotte Area Municipalitiesʼʼ - Conference in Inari, Finland 7-9.9.2011

The conference promoting the objectives of the international European Landscape Convention (ELC) was held on 7-9 September 2011 in Inari. The primary aim of the conference was to increase awareness of the ELC and the prospects and requirements it brings to practical planning work, especially at the municipal level. The conference speakers included top experts from Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Holland and Catalonia. This report is a collection of articles written by the experts in the ELC conference. The report is available in five languages: Finnish, Swedish, Norwegian, Northern Sámi and English. The common characteristics of the North Calotte area, such as the magnificent riverside scenery and the beautiful fell landscapes formed by the Sámi culture and reindeer management are broadly reflected in the environment. Alongside the traditional forms of land use, many other livelihoods and forms of land use now need to be accommodated in the area. Tourism, energy production, mining industry and new infrastructure create new and manifold challenges to the authorities in charge of land use in these areas. Municipalities need information and support for versatile planning in the future, so that the unique and valuable characteristics of the North can be preserved. Landscape protection and management in the landscape areas is executed through areal and land use planning, mainly through town planning and the creation of landscape management plans. The municipalities in the North Calotte region have their own partly divergent methods and practices, based on the various land use processes are executed. The municipalities and inhabitants have a great interest in preserving and protecting their living environment and maintaining and increasing the appeal of the area. Landscape is viewed as one of the most significant appealing factors that cannot be lost. The increasing land use in municipalities, for example due to energy production, mining industry and increasing tourism, create a need for more multidimensional planning. The reconciliation of the wishes of different interest groups, and traditional and new livelihoods will not be easy. Conflict is inevitable. This will lead to a greater need to engage local bodies to the planning processes right from the start of the projects. Close cooperation between different administrative branches, operators, local bodies and landscape research promote the objectives of the convention. To ensure that the work continues, a landscape co-operation group is planned to be established in the North Calotte area. It´s main task is to promote and develop landscape policy in the area.

Active inverter output filtering methods

Frequency converters are widely used in the industry to enable better controllability and efficiency of variable speed AC motor drives. Despite these advantages, certain challenges concerning the inverter and motor interfacing have been present for decades. As insulated gate bipolar transistors entered the market, the inverter output voltage transition rate significantly increased compared with their predecessors. Inverters operate based on pulse width modulation of the output voltage, and the steep voltage edge fed by the inverter produces a motor terminal overvoltage. The overvoltage causes extra stress to the motor insulation, which may lead to a prematuremotor failure. The overvoltage is not generated by the inverter alone, but also by the sum effect of the motor cable length and the impedance mismatch between the cable and the motor. Many solutions have been shown to limit the overvoltage, and the mainstream products focus on passive filters. This doctoral thesis studies an alternative methodology for motor overvoltage reduction. The focus is on minimization of the passive filter dimensions, physical and electrical, or better yet, on operation without any filter. This is achieved by additional inverter control and modulation. The studied methods are implemented on different inverter topologies, varying in nominal voltage and current.For two-level inverters, the studied method is termed active du/dt. It consists of a small output LC filter, which is controlled by an independent modulator. The overvoltage is limited by a reduced voltage transition rate. For multilevel inverters, an overvoltage mitigation method operating without a passive filter, called edge modulation, is implemented. The method uses the capability of the inverter to produce two switching operations in the same direction to cancel the oscillating voltages of opposite phases. For parallel inverters, two methods are studied. They are both intended for two-level inverters, but the first uses individual motor cables from each inverter while the other topology applies output inductors. The overvoltage is reduced by interleaving the switching operations to produce a similar oscillation accumulation as with the edge modulation. The implementation of these methods is discussed in detail, and the necessary modifications to the control system of the inverter are presented. Each method is experimentally verified by operating industrial frequency converters with the modified control. All the methods are found feasible, and they provide sufficient overvoltage protection. The limitations and challenges brought about by the methods are discussed.

Implementation of a perioperative management protocol for patients undergoing orthopedic surgery

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the initial results after the implementation of perioperative protocol in patients over 60 years of age undergoing surgical treatment for femur fractures.METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of patients older than 60 years who were hospitalized with femur fracture. They were operated under spinal anesthesia and analgesia by lumbar plexus blockade. Data evaluation was performed before arrival in the operating room during surgery, in the post-anesthesia recovery room and in the ward the next morning of the operation.RESULTS: 105 patients underwent various types of surgical corrections of the femur. The hospital stay ranged from three to 86 days. Fasting ranged from 9h15min to 19h30mn. Hypotension occurred in 5.7%. The duration of motor blockade ranged from 1h45min to 5h30imn. Maltodextrin feeding ranged from 50min to 3h45min and the time spent in the post-anesthetic care unit ranged from 50 minutes to 4 hours. Onset of oral intake in the ward ranged from 4hto 8h15min. The duration of anesthesia ranged from 14 to 33 hours. No patient required a urinary catheter, nor was transferred to the ICU. All patients were able to be discharged on the first postoperative day.CONCLUSION: The use of a protocol to accelerate the postoperative period may reduce the fasting time, length of hospital stay and provide faster i discharge n elderly patients with femur fractures.