Structural dynamics in the global pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. Planted forests (especially eucalyptus) and recovered paper have quickly increased their importance as raw material for paper and paperboard production. Although advances in information and communication technologies could reduce the demand for communication papers, and the growth of paper consumption has indeed flattened in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, the consumption is increasing on a global scale. Moreover, the focal point of production and consumption is moving from the Western world to the rapidly growing markets of Southeast Asia. This study analyzes how the so-called megatrends (globalization, technological development, and increasing environmental awareness) affect the pulp and paper industry’s external environment, and seeks reliable ways to incorporate the impact of the megatrends on the models concerning the demand, trade, and use of paper and pulp. The study expands current research in several directions and points of view, for example, by applying and incorporating several quantitative methods and different models. As a result, the thesis makes a significant contribution to better understand and measure the impacts of structural changes on the pulp and paper industry. It also provides some managerial and policy implications.

El Outsourcing en la dinámica de sistemas hacia mercados extranjeros

Este trabajo recopila literatura académica relevante sobre estrategias de entrada y metodologías para la toma de decisión sobre la contratación de servicios de Outsourcing para el caso de empresas que planean expandirse hacia mercados extranjeros. La manera en que una empresa planifica su entrada a un mercado extranjero, y realiza la consideración y evaluación de información relevante y el diseño de la estrategia, determina el éxito o no de la misma. De otro lado, las metodologías consideradas se concentran en el nivel estratégico de la pirámide organizacional. Se parte de métodos simples para llegar a aquellos basados en la Teoría de Decisión Multicriterio, tanto individuales como híbridos. Finalmente, se presenta la Dinámica de Sistemas como herramienta valiosa en el proceso, por cuanto puede combinarse con métodos multicriterio.

Diseño y Evaluación de intervenciones en organizaciones empresariales desde la dinámica de sistemas – revisión teórica. Sistemas – Revisión Teórica.

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo hacer una revisión teórica desde los inicios de la Teoría General de Sistemas, hasta el desarrollo de la dinámica de sistemas, todo lo que estas dos teorías plantean, además de muchas otras teorías de las cuales estas se encuentran rodeadas y conectadas muy cercanamente, ya que partiendo del planteamiento que hizo el biólogo Ludwig Von Bertalanffy se derivaron diversas corrientes de pensamiento, todas alrededor del enfoque y pensamiento de sistemas, y de la cual se deriva la más importante para nosotros en este trabajo de la cual es padre el Ingeniero Jay Wright Forrester, la Dinámica de Sistemas. Muchas de estas otras teorías tienen como objetivo generar estrategias de cambio en las organizaciones mediante diferentes metodologías, pero todas con el fin de alcanzar un desempeño óptimo en los procesos que son realizados en las organizaciones. Este proyecto es planteado ante la necesidad de tener un amplio conocimiento teórico de todo lo que conllevan los planteamientos de la Dinámica de Sistemas los cuales van de la mano junto con el pensamiento sistémico y el modelamiento organizacional, el cual veremos cómo es desarrollado desde el enfoque de la Dinámica de Sistemas a través de distintos modelos y en la actualidad herramientas informáticas tales como software diseñados exclusivamente para el modelamiento desde la Dinámica de Sistemas.

Análisis de sensibilidad para un modelo de medición de percepción de marca basado en simulación computacional por agentes

Se presenta el análisis de sensibilidad de un modelo de percepción de marca y ajuste de la inversión en marketing desarrollado en el Laboratorio de Simulación de la Universidad del Rosario. Este trabajo de grado consta de una introducción al tema de análisis de sensibilidad y su complementario el análisis de incertidumbre. Se pasa a mostrar ambos análisis usando un ejemplo simple de aplicación del modelo mediante la aplicación exhaustiva y rigurosa de los pasos descritos en la primera parte. Luego se hace una discusión de la problemática de medición de magnitudes que prueba ser el factor más complejo de la aplicación del modelo en el contexto práctico y finalmente se dan conclusiones sobre los resultados de los análisis.

Modelización bajo el enfoque de dinámica de sistemas de una cadena de abastecimiento para la industria vitivinícola

El proyecto de tesis denominado “Modelización bajo el enfoque de dinámica de sistemas de una cadena de abastecimiento para la industria vitivinícola” busca construir un modelo que aporte una solución óptima al problema logístico encontrado en la cadena de suministro, para que empresas nacionales o internacionales que tengan un funcionamiento similar al del sistema estudiado, puedan tomarlo como ejemplo o referencia. Así mismo, esta investigación pretende encontrar los problemas más frecuentes en cadenas de este tipo con el fin de construir un marco conceptual y teórico fundamentado en la Teoría General de Sistemas (TGS) que genere finalmente un modelo basado en la dinámica de sistemas el cual permitirá a las empresas diseñar y comparar las diferentes intervenciones derivadas del modelo que propicien la generación de capacidades dirigidas al logro de la competitividad de forma perdurable.

Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region

Information system evolvability, feedback and pattern languages

Information systems for business are frequently heavily reliant on software. Two important feedback-related effects of embedding software in a business process are identified. First, the system dynamics of the software maintenance process can become complex, particularly in the number and scope of the feedback loops. Secondly, responsiveness to feedback can have a big effect on the evolvability of the information system. Ways have been explored to provide an effective mechanism for improving the quality of feedback between stakeholders during software maintenance. Understanding can be improved by using representations of information systems that are both service-based and architectural in scope. The conflicting forces that encourage change or stability can be resolved using patterns and pattern languages. A morphology of information systems pattern languages has been described to facilitate the identification and reuse of patterns and pattern languages. The kind of planning process needed to achieve consensus on a system's evolution is also considered.

Experimental design and model construction algorithms for radial basis function networks

New construction algorithms for radial basis function (RBF) network modelling are introduced based on the A-optimality and D-optimality experimental design criteria respectively. We utilize new cost functions, based on experimental design criteria, for model selection that simultaneously optimizes model approximation, parameter variance (A-optimality) or model robustness (D-optimality). The proposed approaches are based on the forward orthogonal least-squares (OLS) algorithm, such that the new A-optimality- and D-optimality-based cost functions are constructed on the basis of an orthogonalization process that gains computational advantages and hence maintains the inherent computational efficiency associated with the conventional forward OLS approach. The proposed approach enhances the very popular forward OLS-algorithm-based RBF model construction method since the resultant RBF models are constructed in a manner that the system dynamics approximation capability, model adequacy and robustness are optimized simultaneously. The numerical examples provided show significant improvement based on the D-optimality design criterion, demonstrating that there is significant room for improvement in modelling via the popular RBF neural network.

Complex dynamics in simple systems with periodic parameter oscillations

We study systems with periodically oscillating parameters that can give way to complex periodic or nonperiodic orbits. Performing the long time limit, we can define ergodic averages such as Lyapunov exponents, where a negative maximal Lyapunov exponent corresponds to a stable periodic orbit. By this, extremely complicated periodic orbits composed of contracting and expanding phases appear in a natural way. Employing the technique of ϵ-uncertain points, we find that values of the control parameters supporting such periodic motion are densely embedded in a set of values for which the motion is chaotic. When a tiny amount of noise is coupled to the system, dynamics with positive and with negative nontrivial Lyapunov exponents are indistinguishable. We discuss two physical systems, an oscillatory flow inside a duct and a dripping faucet with variable water supply, where such a mechanism seems to be responsible for a complicated alternation of laminar and turbulent phases.

Can we have confidence in generic structures?

The system dynamics concept of `generic structure' is dividable into three sub-types. This paper analyses the validity of these three, using both practical and theoretical perspectives. Firstly, a new set of measures is developed for generating validity-`confidence'-amongst a group using generic structures in a practical modelling situation. It is concluded that different confidence criteria are implicitly employed; there is an argument for trading-off model precision and analytical quality for simplicity and ease of use and future research is needed to combine these `process' and `content' aspects of confidence. From a theoretical stance it is shown that with two of the sub-types a scientific notion of confidence is achievable whereas the third (`archetypes') involves merely metaphorical thinking. It is concluded that the theoretical status of archetypes requires further development, whilst ensuring that its benefits are retained.

Friendly amendment: a commentary on Doyle and Ford's proposed re-definition of 'mental model'

Some amendments are proposed to a recent redefinition of the mental model concept in system dynamics. First, externalised, or articulated mental models should not be called cognitive maps; this term has a well established, alternative meaning. Second, there can be mental models of entities not yet existing beyond an individual's mind; the modelling of planned or desired systems is possible and recommended. Third, saying that mental models maintain social systems connects with some exciting research opportunities for system dynamics; however, it is probably an accidental distraction from the intended meaning of the redefinition. These minor criticisms apart, the new definition of mental model of a dynamic system is welcomed as a useful contribution to both research and practice.

Climate impact research: beyond patchwork

Despite significant progress in climate impacts research, the narratives that science can presently piece together of a 2-, 3-, 4-, or 5-degree warmer world remain fragmentary. Here we briefly review past undertakings to comprehensively characterize and quantify climate impacts based on multi-model approaches. We then report on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), a community-driven effort to systematically compare impacts models across sectors and scales, and to quantify the uncertainties along the chain from greenhouse gas emissions and climate input data to the modelling of climate impacts themselves. We show how ISI-MIP and similar efforts can substantially advance the science relevant to impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, and we outline the steps that need to be taken in order to make the most of available modelling tools. We discuss pertinent limitations of these methods and how they could be tackled. We argue that it is time to consolidate the current patchwork of impacts knowledge through integrated cross-sectoral assessments, and that the climate impacts community is now in a favourable position to do so.

Coherence dynamics of two-mode condensates in asymmetric potentials

Detection of weak forces with an accuracy beyond the standard quantum limit holds promise both for fundamental research and for technological applications. Schemes involving ultracold atoms for such measurements are now considered to be prime candidates for increased sensitivity. In this paper we use a combination of analytical and numerical techniques to investigate the possible subshot-noise estimation of applied force fields through detection of coherence dynamics of Bose-condensed atoms in asymmetric double-well traps. Following a semiclassical description of the system dynamics and fringe visibility, we present numerical simulations of the full quantum dynamics that demonstrate the dynamical production of phase squeezing beyond the standard quantum limit. Nonlinear interactions are found to limit the achievable amount to a finite value determined by the external weak force.

Force and displacement transmissibility of a nonlinear isolator with high-static-low-dynamic-stiffness

Engineers often face the challenge of reducing the level of vibrations experienced by a given payload or those transmitted to the support structure to which a vibrating source is attached. In order to increase the range over which vibrations are isolated, soft mounts are often used in practice. The drawback of this approach is the static displacement may be too large for reasons of available space for example. Ideally, a vibration isolator should have a high-static stiffness, to withstand static loads without too large a displacement, and at the same time, a low dynamic stiffness so that the natural frequency of the system is as low as possible which will result in an increased isolation region. These two effects are mutually exclusive in linear isolators but can be overcome if properly configured nonlinear isolators are used. This paper is concerned with the characterisation of such a nonlinear isolator comprising three springs, two of which are configured to reduce the dynamic stiffness of the isolator. The dynamic behaviour of the isolator supporting a lumped mass is investigated using force and displacement transmissibility, which are derived by modelling the dynamic system as a single-degree-of-freedom system. This results in the system dynamics being approximately described by the Duffing equation. For a linear isolator, the dynamics of the system are the same regardless if the source of the excitation is a harmonic force acting on the payload (force transmissibility) or a harmonic motion of the base (displacement transmissibility) on which the payload is mounted. In this paper these two expressions are compared for the nonlinear isolator and it is shown that they differ. A particular feature of the displacement transmissibility is that the response is unbounded at the nonlinear resonance frequency unless the damping in the isolator is greater than some threshold value, which is not the case for force transmissibility. An explanation for this is offered in the paper. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On a control of a non-ideal mono-rail system with periodics coefficients

In this work, the problem in the loads transport (in platforms or suspended by cables) it is considered. The system in subject is composed for mono-rail system and was modeled through the system: inverted pendulum, car and motor and the movement equations were obtained through the Lagrange equations. In the model, was considered the interaction among of the motor and system dynamics for several potencies motor, that is, the case studied is denominated a non-ideal periodic problem. The non-ideal periodic problem dynamics was analyzed, qualitatively, through the comparison of the stability diagrams, numerically obtained, for several motor torque constants. Furthermore, one was made it analyzes quantitative of the problem through the analysis of the Floquet multipliers. Finally, the non-ideal problem was controlled. The method that was used for analysis and control of non-ideal periodic systems is based on the Chebyshev polynomial expansion, in the Picard iterative method and in the Lyapunov-Floquet transformation (L-F trans formation). This method was presented recently in [3-9].