Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

A retrospective study of Babesia macropus associated with morbidity and mortality in eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) and agile wallabies (Macropus agilis)

This is a retrospective study of 38 cases of infection by Babesia macropus, associated with a syndrome of anaemia and debility in hand-reared or free-ranging juvenile eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) from coastal New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland between 1995 and 2013. Infection with B. macropus is recorded for the first time in agile wallabies (Macropus agilis) from far north Queensland. Animals in which B. macropus infection was considered to be the primary cause of morbidity had marked anaemia, lethargy and neurological signs, and often died. In these cases, parasitised erythrocytes were few or undetectable in peripheral blood samples but were sequestered in large numbers within small vessels of visceral organs, particularly in the kidney and brain, associated with distinctive clusters of extraerythrocytic organisms. Initial identification of this piroplasm in peripheral blood smears and in tissue impression smears and histological sections was confirmed using transmission electron microscopy and molecular analysis. Samples of kidney, brain or blood were tested using PCR and DNA sequencing of the 18S ribosomal RNA and heat shock protein 70 gene using primers specific for piroplasms. The piroplasm detected in these samples had 100 sequence identity in the 18S rRNA region with the recently described Babesia macropus in two eastern grey kangaroos from New South Wales and Queensland, and a high degree of similarity to an unnamed Babesia sp. recently detected in three woylies (Bettongia penicillata ogilbyi) in Western Australia.

Medication incident reporting in residential aged care facilities: Limitations and risks to residents' safety

Background Medication incident reporting (MIR) is a key safety critical care process in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies of medication incident reports in aged care have identified the inability of existing MIR processes to generate information that can be used to enhance residents’ safety. However, there is little existing research that investigates the limitations of the existing information exchange process that underpins MIR, despite the considerable resources that RACFs’ devote to the MIR process. The aim of this study was to undertake an in-depth exploration of the information exchange process involved in MIR and identify factors that inhibit the collection of meaningful information in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs (part of a large non-profit organisation) in NSW, Australia. A total of 23 semi-structured interviews and 62 hours of observation sessions were conducted between May to July 2011. The qualitative data was iteratively analysed using a grounded theory approach. Results The findings highlight significant gaps in the design of the MIR artefacts as well as information exchange issues in MIR process execution. Study results emphasized the need to: a) design MIR artefacts that facilitate identification of the root causes of medication incidents, b) integrate the MIR process within existing information systems to overcome key gaps in information exchange execution, and c) support exchange of information that can facilitate a multi-disciplinary approach to medication incident management in RACFs. Conclusions This study highlights the advantages of viewing MIR process holistically rather than as segregated tasks, as a means to identify gaps in information exchange that need to be addressed in practice to improve safety critical processes.

Treasurer's reports of Hayman Levy

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A retrospective case-control study on the prescribing practices of antidepressants administered to cancer patients and non-cancer patients in Australia

Comorbidity of depression risks is common among cancer patients. The pharmacological treatment of depression is antidepressants. However, antidepressants may interact with anticancer drugs or cause adverse reactions. The prescription practice of antidepressants to cancer patients in Australia is not well documented. Our systematic review and meta-analysis identified that the overall prevalence rate of antidepressants was 15.6% varied widely by world-region and gender. A retrospective case-control study was undertaken to determine the recent prescription practice of antidepressants to cancer and non-cancer patients in Australia. Mirtazapine was the highly prescribed antidepressants to cases, whereas Desvenlafaxine was prescribed to controls. Considerable variation in the prescribing patterns of antidepressants was identified. Prospective studies are needed to ascertain whether patients are being treated optimally.

Constructing the ideal victim in the United States of America's annual trafficking in persons reports

Human trafficking as a global phenomenon continues to elude accurate quantitative measure, and remains a controversial policy domain significantly influenced by anecdotal evidence. Drawing on the policy analysis framework of Bacchi (1999; 2007) the problem representation of trafficking through narratives can be considered a direct antecedent of contemporary anti-human trafficking policy. This article explores the construction of human trafficking within the Trafficking in Persons Reports, published annually by the United States of America’s Department of State. An examination of the victim and offender narratives contained within the reports published between 2001 and 2012 demonstrates that human trafficking is predominantly represented as a crime committed by ideal offenders against idealized victims, consistent with Christie’s (1986) landmark criteria of ideal victimization. This representation of an ideal prototype has the potential to inform policy that diverts focus from the causative role of global socioeconomic injustice towards criminal justice policies targeting individual offenders.

Glycemic Control in Diabetic Pregnancies: Effects on Fetal and Maternal Outcome

Background: Both maternal and fetal complications are increased in diabetic pregnancies. Although hypertensive complications are increased in pregnant women with pregestational diabetes, reports on hypertensive complications in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have been contradictory. Congenital malformations and macrosomia are the main fetal complications in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies, whereas fetal macrosomia and birth trauma but not congenital malformations are increased in GDM pregnancies. Aims: To study the frequency of hypertensive disorders in gestational diabetes mellitus. To evaluate the risk of macrosomia and brachial plexus injury (Erb’s palsy) and the ability of the 2-hour glucose tolerance test (OGTT) combined with the 24-hour glucose profile to distinguish between low and high risks of fetal macrosomia among women with GDM. To evaluate the relationship between glycemic control and the risk of fetal malformations in pregnancies complicated by Type 1 diabetes mellitus. To assess the effect of glycemic control on the occurrence of preeclampsia and pregnancy-induced hypertension in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies. Subjects: A total of 986 women with GDM and 203 women with borderline glucose intolerance (one abnormal value in the OGTT) with a singleton pregancy, 488 pregnant women with Type 1 diabetes (691 pregnancies and 709 offspring), and 1154 pregnant non-diabetic women (1181 pregnancies and 1187 offspring) were investigated. Results: In a prospective study on 81 GDM patients the combined frequency of preeclampsia and PIH was higher than in 327 non-diabetic controls (19.8% vs 6.1%, p<0.001). On the other hand, in 203 women with only one abnormal value in the OGTT, the rate of hypertensive complications did not differ from that of the controls. Both GDM women and those with only one abnormal value in the OGTT had higher pre-pregnancy weights and BMIs than the controls. In a retrospective study involving 385 insulin-treated and 520 diet-treated GDM patients, and 805 non-diabetic control pregnant women, fetal macrosomia occurred more often in the insulin-treated GDM pregnancies (18.2%, p<0.001) than in the diet-treated GDM pregnancies (4.4%), or the control pregnancies (2.2%). The rate of Erb’s palsy in vaginally delivered infants was 2.7% in the insulin-treated group of women and 2.4% in the diet-treated women compared with 0.3% in the controls (p<0.001). The cesarean section rate was more than twice as high (42.3% vs 18.6%) in the insulin-treated GDM patients as in the controls. A major fetal malformation was observed in 30 (4.2%) of the 709 newborn infants in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies and in 10 (1.4%) of the 735 controls (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.6–6.2). Even women whose levels of HbA1c (normal values less than 5.6%) were only slightly increased in early pregnancy (between 5.6 and 6.8%) had a relative risk of fetal malformation of 3.0 (95% CI 1.2–7.5). Only diabetic patients with a normal HbA1c level (<5.6%) in early pregnancy had the same low risk of fetal malformations as the controls. Preeclampsia was diagnosed in 12.8% and PIH in 11.4% of the 616 Type 1 diabetic women without diabetic nephropathy. The corresponding frequencies among the 854 control women were 2.7% (OR 5.2; 95% CI 3.3–8.4) for preeclampsia and 5.6% (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5–3.1) for PIH. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that glycemic control, nulliparity, diabetic retinopathy and duration of diabetes were statistically significant independent predictors of preeclampsia. The adjusted odds ratios for preeclampsia were 1.6 (95% CI 1.3–2.0) for each 1%-unit increment in the HbA1c value during the first trimester and 0.6 (95% CI 0.5–0.8) for each 1%-unit decrement during the first half of pregnancy. In contrast, changes in glycemic control during the second half of pregnancy did not alter the risk of preeclampsia. Conclusions: In type 1 diabetic pregnancies it is extremely important to achieve optimal glycemic control before pregnancy and maintain it throughout pregnancy in order to decrease the complication rates both in the mother and in her offspring. The rate of fetal macrosomia and birth trauma in GDM pregnancies, especially in the group of insulin-treated women, is still relatively high. New strategies for screening, diagnosing, and treatment of GDM must be developed in order to decrease fetal and neonatal complications.

Appendiceal sonography in children: A retrospective analysis as a platform for potential implementation of diagnostic categories

- Background Sonography is an important diagnostic tool in children with suspected appendicitis. Reported accuracy and appendiceal visualisation rates vary significantly, as does the management of equivocal ultrasound findings. The aim of this study was to audit appendiceal sonography at a tertiary children's hospital, and provide baseline data for a future prospective study. - Summary of work Records of children who underwent ultrasound studies for possible appendicitis between January 2008 and December 2010 were reviewed. Variables included patient demographics, sonographic appendix characteristics, and secondary signs. Descriptive statistics and analysis using ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U test, and ROC curves were performed. Mater Human Research Ethic Committee approval was granted. - Summary of results There were 457 eligible children. Using a dichotomous diagnostic model (including equivocal results), sensitivity was 89.6%, specificity 91.6%, and diagnostic yield of 40.7%. ROC curve analysis of a 6mm diameter cut-off was 0.88 AUC (95% CI 0.80 to 0.95). - Discussion and conclusions Sonography is an accurate test for acute appendicitis in children, with a high sensitivity and negative predictive value. A diameter of 6mm as an absolute cut-off in a binary model can lead to false findings. Results were compared with available literature. Recent publications propose categorising diameter1 and integrating secondary signs2 to improve accuracy and provide more meaningful results to clinicians. This study will be a benchmark for future studies with multiple diagnostic categorisation.

Avoimesti sitoutuneena : Lähetystyö kristillisessä kasvatuksessa ja vapaaehtoistyössä

In this study the junction of Christian mission, Christian education and voluntary work are examined in the Christian student voluntary association Opiskelijain Lähetysliitto (OL), which is the Finnish successor to the Student Volunteer Movement. The main subjects are the structure and content of the mission education as one aspect of Lutheran education and the reasons for expressing the mission interest through voluntary work. The research questions are as follows: What kind of organization has the OL been? What has mission education been like in the OL? Why have the former chairpersons participated in the OL? How have purposiveness and intentionality arisen among the former chairpersons? The study is empirical despite having a historical and retrospective view, since the OL is explored during the period 1972 2000. The data consists of the OL s annual reports, membership applications (N=629) and interviews of all 25 former chairmen. Data is analysed by qualitative and quantitative content analysis in a partly inductive and partly deductive manner. The pedagogical framework arises from situational learning theory (Lave - Wenger 1991), which was complemented with the criteria for meaningful learning (Jonassen 1995), the octagon model of volunteer motivation (Yeung 2004) and the definitions of intentionality and purposiveness in the theory of teachers pedagogical thinking (Kansanen et al. 2000). The analysis of the archive data showed that the activities of the OL are reminiscent of those of the missions of the Finnish Evangelical Lutheran Church congregations. The biggest difference was that all OL participants were young adults, the age group that is the greatest challenge to the Church. The OL is therefore an interesting context in which to explore mission education and mission interest. The key result of the study was the forming of a model of mission educa-tion. The model has three educational components: values, goals and methods. The gist of the model is formed by the goals. The main goal is the arousing and strengthening of mission interest which has emotional, cognitive and practical aspects. The subgoals create the horizontal vertical and inward outward dimensions of the model, which are the metalevels of mission education. The subgoals reveal that societal and religious education may embody a missionary dimension when they are understood as missionary training. Further, a distinction between mission education and missionary training was observed. The former emphasizes the main goal of the model and the latter underlines the subgoals. Based on the vertical dimension of the model the study suggests that the definition of religious competence needs to be complemented with missional competence. Reasons for participating in the OL were found to be diverse as noted in other studies on volunteering and motivating factors, and were typical to young people such as the importance of social relations. The study created new motivational themes that occurred in the middle of the continuity newness and the distance proximity dimensions, which were not found in Yeung s research. Mission interest as voluntary work appeared as oriented towards one s own spirituality or towards the social community. On the other hand, mission interest was manifested as intentional education in order to either improve the community or to promote the Christian mission. In the latter case the mission was seen as a purpose in life and as a future profession. Keywords: mission, Christian education, voluntary work, mission education, mission interest, stu-dent movement

A mimetic-based frequency domain technique for automatic generation of EEG reports

This paper describes a novel mimetic technique of using frequency domain approach and digital filters for automatic generation of EEG reports. Digitized EEG data files, transported on a cartridge, have been used for the analysis. The signals are filtered for alpha, beta, theta and delta bands with digital bandpass filters of fourth-order, cascaded, Butterworth, infinite impulse response (IIR) type. The maximum amplitude, mean frequency, continuity index and degree of asymmetry have been computed for a given EEG frequency band. Finally, searches for the presence of artifacts (eye movement or muscle artifacts) in the EEG records have been made.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Summary of the 1998 MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and Task Team Reports.

This volume summarizes the results of three workshops organized by the PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program that were held just prior to the PICES Seventh Annual Meeting in Fairbanks, Alaska, in October 1998. These workshops represent the efforts of the REX, MODEL, and MONITOR Task Teams to integrate the results of national GLOBEC and GLOBEC-like programs to arrive at a better understanding of the ways in which climate change affects North Pacific ecosystems. (PDF contains 91 pages)

Workshop on Conceptual/Theoretical Studies and Model Development including the MODEL Task Team Report; BASS Team Report; REX Task Team Reports

A workshop was convened by the MODEL Task Team and held June 23-28, 1996, in Nemuro, Japan, to develop the modeling requirements of the PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (CCCC) Program. It was attended by over 40 scientists from all member nations of PICES. The principal objectives of the workshop were to • review the roles and limitations of modeling for the CCCC program; • propose the level of modeling required; and • provide a plan for how to promote these modeling activities. Secondary activities at the workshop included organisational meetings of the Regional comparisons (REX) and Basin-scale experiment (BASS) Task Teams, and a symposium by Japan-GLOBEC on “Development and application of new technologies for measurement and modeling in marine ecosystems.” This report serves as a record of the proceedings of this workshop. (PDF contains 89 pages)