Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.

A nonlinear oscillator describing storm track variability

We construct a two-variable model which describes the interaction between local baroclinicity and eddy heat flux in order to understand aspects of the variance in storm tracks. It is a heuristic model for diabatically forced baroclinic instability close to baroclinic neutrality. The two-variable model has the structure of a nonlinear oscillator. It exhibits some realistic properties of observed storm track variability, most notably the intermittent nature of eddy activity. This suggests that apparent threshold behaviour can be more accurately and succinctly described by a simple nonlinearity. An analogy is drawn with triggering of convective events.

Resonant Wave Interactions in the Presence of a Diurnally Varying Heat Source

Resonant interactions among equatorial waves in the presence of a diurnally varying heat source are studied in the context of the diabatic version of the equatorial beta-plane primitive equations for a motionless, hydrostatic, horizontally homogeneous and stably stratified background atmosphere. The heat source is assumed to be periodic in time and of small amplitude [i.e., O(epsilon)] and is prescribed to roughly represent the typical heating associated with deep convection in the tropical atmosphere. In this context, using the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the free linear Rossby, Kelvin, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves, as well as their vertical structures, are obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves are shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(e) approximation, and the dynamics of these interactions have been studied in the presence of the forcing. It is shown that for the planetary-scale wave resonant triads composed of two first baroclinic equatorially trapped waves and one barotropic Rossby mode, the spectrum of the thermal forcing is such that only one of the triad components is resonant with the heat source. As a result, to illustrate the role of the diurnal forcing in these interactions in a simplified fashion, two kinds of triads have been analyzed. The first one refers to triads composed of a k = 0 first baroclinic geostrophic mode, which is resonant with the stationary component of the diurnal heat source, and two dispersive modes, namely, a mixed Rossby-gravity wave and a barotropic Rossby mode. The other class corresponds to triads composed of two first baroclinic inertio-gravity waves in which the highest-frequency wave resonates with a transient harmonic of the forcing. The integration of the asymptotic reduced equations for these selected resonant triads shows that the stationary component of the diurnal heat source acts as an ""accelerator"" for the energy exchanges between the two dispersive waves through the excitation of the catalyst geostrophic mode. On the other hand, since in the second class of triads the mode that resonates with the forcing is the most energetically active member because of the energy constraints imposed by the triad dynamics, the results show that the convective forcing in this case is responsible for a longer time scale modulation in the resonant interactions, generating a period doubling in the energy exchanges. The results suggest that the diurnal variation of tropical convection might play an important role in generating low-frequency fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation through resonant nonlinear interactions.

Time-resolved study electronic and thermal contributions to the nonlinear refractive index of Nd3+: SBN laser crystals

The propagation of an optical beam through dielectric media induces changes in the refractive index, An, which causes self-focusing or self-defocusing. In the particular case of ion-doped solids, there are thermal and non-thermal lens effects, where the latter is due to the polarizability difference, Delta alpha, between the excited and ground states, the so-called population lens (PL) effect. PL is a pure electronic contribution to the nonlinearity, while the thermal lens (TL) effect is caused by the conversion of part of the absorbed energy into heat. In time-resolved measurements such as Z-scan and TL transient experiments, it is not easy to separate these two contributions to nonlinear refractive index because they usually have similar response times. In this work, we performed time-resolved measurements using both Z-scan and mode mismatched TL in order to discriminate thermal and electronic contributions to the laser-induced refractive index change of the Nd3+-doped Strontium Barium Niobate (SrxBa1-xNb2O6) laser crystal. Combining numerical simulations with experimental results we could successfully distinguish between the two contributions to An. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Otimização topológica de estruturas termoelásticas tridimensionais

This work presents an optimization technique based on structural topology optimization methods, TOM, designed to solve problems of thermoelasticity 3D. The presented approach is based on the adjoint method of sensitivity analysis unified design and is intended to loosely coupled thermomechanical problems. The technique makes use of analytical expressions of sensitivities, enabling a reduction in the computational cost through the use of a coupled field adjoint equation, defined in terms the of temperature and displacement fields. The TOM used is based on the material aproach. Thus, to make the domain is composed of a continuous distribution of material, enabling the use of classical models in nonlinear programming optimization problem, the microstructure is considered as a porous medium and its constitutive equation is a function only of the homogenized relative density of the material. In this approach, the actual properties of materials with intermediate densities are penalized based on an artificial microstructure model based on the SIMP (Solid Isotropic Material with Penalty). To circumvent problems chessboard and reduce dependence on layout in relation to the final optimal initial mesh, caused by problems of numerical instability, restrictions on components of the gradient of relative densities were applied. The optimization problem is solved by applying the augmented Lagrangian method, the solution being obtained by applying the finite element method of Galerkin, the process of approximation using the finite element Tetra4. This element has the ability to interpolate both the relative density and the displacement components and temperature. As for the definition of the problem, the heat load is assumed in steady state, i.e., the effects of conduction and convection of heat does not vary with time. The mechanical load is assumed static and distributed

Patterns in parabolic problems with nonlinear boundary conditions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Acerola's pectin methylesterase: studies of heat inactivation

The effect of temperature on the activity of acerola's pectin methylesterase (PME) was studied to determine its heat-inactivation. The acerola's pectin methylesterase (PME; EC: 3.1.1.11) is very stable at 50 degrees C (10% loss of activity in 100 min) and needed 110 min for its inactivation at 98 degrees C. These values are much higher than the ones required for inactivation of the citrus PME, that has been reported as being equal to 1 min at 90 degrees C. Heat-inactivation of PME was shown to be nonlinear, suggesting the presence of fractions of PME with differing heat-stabilities. The times to inactive the enzyme at 98, 102 and 106 degrees C were 110, 10 and 2.17 min, respectively. The Z value (the rise in temperature necessary to observe a ten times faster heat-inactivation) was 4.71 degrees C. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear parameter estimation in laminar forced convection within a circular sector tube

In this article we examine an inverse heat convection problem of estimating unknown parameters of a parameterized variable boundary heat flux. The physical problem is a hydrodynamically developed, thermally developing, three-dimensional steady state laminar flow of a Newtonian fluid inside a circular sector duct, insulated in the flat walls and subject to unknown wall heat flux at the curved wall. Results are presented for polynomial and sinusoidal trial functions, and the unknown parameters as well as surface heat fluxes are determined. Depending on the nature of the flow, on the position of experimental points the inverse problem sometimes could not be solved. Therefore, an identification condition is defined to specify a condition under which the inverse problem can be solved. Once the parameters have been computed it is possible to obtain the statistical significance of the inverse problem solution. Therefore, approximate confidence bounds based on standard statistical linear procedure, for the estimated parameters, are analyzed and presented.

Semigrupos de operadores lineares aplicados às equações diferenciais parciais

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Approximate controllability for the semilinear heat equation in RN involving gradient terms

We prove the approximate controllability of the semilinear heat equation in R^N, when the nonlinear term is globally Lipschitz and depends both on the state u and its spatial gradient Ñu. The approximate controllability is viewed as the limit of a sequence of optimal control problems. In order to avoid the difficulties related to the lack of compactness of the Sobolev embeddings, we work with the similarity variables and use weighted Sobolev spaces.

Experimental and numerical study of heat transfer in hot machined workpiece using infrared radiation

One of the greatest problems found in machining is related to the cutting tool wear. A way for increasing the tool life points out to the development of materials more resistant to wear, such as PCBN inserts. However, the unit cost of these tools is considerable high, around 10 to 20 times compared to coated carbide insert, besides its better performance occurs in high speeds requiring modern machine tools. Another way, less studied is the workpiece heating in order to diminish the shear stress material and thus reduce the machining forces allowing an increase of tool life. For understanding the heat transfer influences by conduction in this machining process, a mathematical model was developed to allow a simplified numerical simulation, using the finite element method, in order to determine the temperature profiles inside the workpiece.

Influence of Goertler vortices spanwise wavelength on heat transfer rates

The boundary layer over concave surfaces can be unstable due to centrifugal forces, giving rise to Goertler vortices. These vortices create two regions in the spanwise direction—the upwash and downwash regions. The downwash region is responsible for compressing the boundary layer toward the wall, increasing the heat transfer rate. The upwash region does the opposite. In the nonlinear development of the Goertler vortices, it can be observed that the upwash region becomes narrow and the spanwise–average heat transfer rate is higher than that for a Blasius boundary layer. This paper analyzes the influence of the spanwise wavelength of the Goertler the heat transfer. The equation is written in vorticity-velocity formulation. The time integration is done via a classical fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The spatial derivatives are calculated using high-order compact finite difference and spectral methods. Three different wavelengths are analyzed. The results show that steady Goertler flow can increase the heat transfer rates to values close to the values of turbulence, without the existence of a secondary instability. The geometry (and computation domain) are presented

Influence of nanoparticle size on the nonlinear optical properties of magnetite ferrofluids

The nonlinear index of refraction (n(2)) and the two-photon absorption coefficient (beta) of water-based ferrofluids made of magnetite nanocrystals of different sizes and with different coatings have been measured through the Z-scan technique, with ultrashort (femtoseconds) laser pulses. Their third-order susceptibility is calculated from the values of n(2) and beta. The influence of different particles' coatings and sizes on these nonlinear optical properties are investigated. The values of n(2) and beta depend more significantly on the nanoparticles' size than on the particular coating. We observe a decrease of beta as the nanoparticles' diameters decrease, although the optical gap is found to be the same for all samples. The results are interpreted considering modifications in the electronic orbital shape due to the particles' nanosize effect.

Development of heat sink device by using topology optimization

Small scale fluid flow systems have been studied for various applications, such as chemical reagent dosages and cooling devices of compact electronic components. This work proposes to present the complete cycle development of an optimized heat sink designed by using Topology Optimization Method (TOM) for best performance, including minimization of pressure drop in fluid flow and maximization of heat dissipation effects, aiming small scale applications. The TOM is applied to a domain, to obtain an optimized channel topology, according to a given multi-objective function that combines pressure drop minimization and heat transfer maximization. Stokes flow hypothesis is adopted. Moreover, both conduction and forced convection effects are included in the steady-state heat transfer model. The topology optimization procedure combines the Finite Element Method (to carry out the physical analysis) with Sequential Linear Programming (as the optimization algorithm). Two-dimensional topology optimization results of channel layouts obtained for a heat sink design are presented as example to illustrate the design methodology. 3D computational simulations and prototype manufacturing have been carried out to validate the proposed design methodology.

Electrothermal characterization and nonlinear modelling of GaN transistors for telecommunication circuit design

This thesis starts showing the main characteristics and application fields of the AlGaN/GaN HEMT technology, focusing on reliability aspects essentially due to the presence of low frequency dispersive phenomena which limit in several ways the microwave performance of this kind of devices. Based on an equivalent voltage approach, a new low frequency device model is presented where the dynamic nonlinearity of the trapping effect is taken into account for the first time allowing considerable improvements in the prediction of very important quantities for the design of power amplifier such as power added efficiency, dissipated power and internal device temperature. An innovative and low-cost measurement setup for the characterization of the device under low-frequency large-amplitude sinusoidal excitation is also presented. This setup allows the identification of the new low frequency model through suitable procedures explained in detail. In this thesis a new non-invasive empirical method for compact electrothermal modeling and thermal resistance extraction is also described. The new contribution of the proposed approach concerns the non linear dependence of the channel temperature on the dissipated power. This is very important for GaN devices since they are capable of operating at relatively high temperatures with high power densities and the dependence of the thermal resistance on the temperature is quite relevant. Finally a novel method for the device thermal simulation is investigated: based on the analytical solution of the tree-dimensional heat equation, a Visual Basic program has been developed to estimate, in real time, the temperature distribution on the hottest surface of planar multilayer structures. The developed solver is particularly useful for peak temperature estimation at the design stage when critical decisions about circuit design and packaging have to be made. It facilitates the layout optimization and reliability improvement, allowing the correct choice of the device geometry and configuration to achieve the best possible thermal performance.