Patterns of sex work contact among men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the prevalence of lifetime recourse to prostitution (LRP) among men in the general population of Switzerland from a trend and cohort perspective. METHODS: Using nine repeated representative cross-sectional surveys from 1987 to 2000, age-specific estimates of LRP were computed. Trends and period effect were analysed as the evolution of cross-sectional population estimates within age groups and overall. Cohort analysis relied on cohorts constructed from the 1989 survey and followed in subsequent waves. Age and cohort effects were modelled using logistic regression and non-parametric monotone regression. RESULTS: Whereas prevalence for the younger groups was found to be logically lower, there was no consistent increasing or decreasing trend over the years; there was no significant period effect. For the 17-30 year age group, the mean estimate over 1987-2000 was 11.5% (range 8.3 to 12.7%); for the 31-45 year group, the mean was 21.5% (range over 1989-2000 20.3 to 23.0%). Regarding cohort analysis, the prevalence of LRP was found to increase steeply in the youngest ages before reaching a plateau near the age of 40 years. At the age of 43 years, the prevalence was estimated to be 22.6% (95% CI 21.1% to 24.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The steep increase in the cohort-wise prevalence of LRP in younger ages calls for a concentration of prevention activities in young people. If the plateauing at approximately 40 years of age is not followed by a further increase later in life, which is not known, then consumers of paid sex would be repeat buyers only, a fact that should be taken into account by prevention.

Multiple-scale hydrological and geophysical data integration through non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

HIV behavioural surveillance in Switzerland: trends in drug consumption, injection and syringe distribution, 1993-2011

Background: As part of the second generation surveillance system for HIV/Aids in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation. The number of syringes distributed to the injectors has also been measured annually since 2000. Distribution in other settings, such as pharmacies, is also monitored nationally. Methods: Periodic surveys of LTFs have been conducted using an interviewer/self-administered questionnaire structured along four themes: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, risk/preventive behaviour and health. Analysis is restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDU´s). Pearson's chi-square test and trend analysis were conducted on annual aggregated data. Trend significance was assessed using Stata's non parametric test nptrend. Results: Median age of IDU´s increased from 26 years in 1993 to 40 in 2011; most are men (78%). Total yearly number of syringes distributed by LTFs has decreased by 44% in 10 years. Use of cocaine has increased (Table 1). Injection, regular use of heroin and borrowing of syringes/needles have decreased, while sharing of other material remains stable. There are fewer new injectors; more IDU´s report substitution treatment. Most attenders had ever been tested for HIV (90% in 1993, 94% in 2011). Reported prevalence of HIV remained stable around 10%; that of HCV decreased from 62% in 2000 to 42% in 2011. Conclusions: Overall, findings indicate a decrease in injection as a means of drug consumption in that population. This interpretation is supported by data from other sources, such as a national decrease in distribution from other delivery points. Switzerland's behavioural surveillance system is sustainable and allows the HIV epidemic to be monitored among this hard-to-reach population, providing information for planning and evaluation.

Early white matter alterations in men predisposed to FXTAS revealed by MT imaging.

Introduction: The Fragile X - associated Tremor Ataxia Syndrome (FXTAS) is a recently described, and under-diagnosed, late onset (≈ 60y) neurodegenerative disorder affecting male carriers of a premutation in the Fragile X Mental Retardation 1 (FMR1) gene. The premutation is an CGG (Cytosine-Guanine-Guanine) expansion (55 to 200 CGG repeats) in the proximal region of the FMR1 gene. Patients with FXTAS primarily present with cerebellar ataxia and intention tremor. Neuroradiological features of FXTAS include prominent white matter disease in the periventricular, subcortical, middle cerebellar peduncles and deep white matter of the cerebellum on T2-weighted or FLAIR MR imaging (Jacquemmont 2007, Loesch 2007, Brunberg 2002, Cohen 2006). We hypothesize that a significant white matter alteration is present in younger individuals many years prior to clinical symptoms and/or the presence of visible lesions on conventional MR sequences and might be detectable by magnetization transfer (MT) imaging. Methods: Eleven asymptomatic premutation carriers (mean age = 55 years) and seven intra-familial controls participated to the study. A standardized neurological examination was performed on all participants and a neuropsychological evaluation was carried out before MR scanning performed on a 3T Siemens Trio. The protocol included a sagittal T1-weighted 3D gradient-echo sequence (MPRAGE, 160 slices, 1 mm^3 isotropic voxels) and a gradient-echo MTI (FA 30, TE 15, matrix size 256*256, pixel size 1*1 mm, 36 slices (thickness 2mm), MT pulse duration 7.68 ms, FA 500, frequency offset 1.5 kHz). MTI was performed by acquiring consecutively two set of images; first with and then without the MT saturation pulse. MT images were coregistered to the T1 acquisition. The MTR for every intracranial voxel was calculated as follows: MTR = (M0 - MS)/M0*100%, creating a MTR map for each subject. As first analysis, the whole white matter (WM) was used to mask the MTR image in order to create an histogram of the MTR distribution in the whole tissue class over the two groups examined. Then, for each subject, we performed a segmentation and parcellation of the brain by means of Freesurfer software, starting from the high resolution T1-weighted anatomical acquisition. Cortical parcellations was used to assign a label to the underlying white matter by the construction of a Voronoi diagram in the WM voxels of the MR volume based on distance to the nearest cortical parcellation label. This procedure allowed us to subdivide the cerebral WM in 78 ROIs according to the cortical parcellation (see example in Fig 1). The cerebellum, by the same procedure, was subdivided in 5 ROIs (2 per each hemisphere and one corresponding to the brainstem). For each subject, we calculated the mean value of MTR within each ROI and averaged over controls and patients. Significant differences between the two groups were tested using a two sample T-test (p<0.01). Results: Neurological examination showed that no patient met the clinical criteria of Fragile X Tremor and Ataxia Syndrome yet. Nonetheless, premutation carriers showed some subtle neurological signs of the disorder. In fact, premutation carriers showed a significant increase of tremor (CRST, T-test p=0.007) and increase of ataxia (ICARS, p=0.004) when compared to controls. The neuropsychological evaluation was normal in both groups. To obtain general characterizations of myelination for each subject and premutation carriers, we first computed the distribution of MTR values across the total white matter volume and averaged for each group. We tested the equality of the two distributions with the non parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and we rejected the null-hypothesis at a p=0.03 (fig. 2). As expected, when comparing the asymptomatic permutation carriers with control subjects, the peak value and peak position of the MTR values within the whole WM were decreased and the width of the distribution curve was increased (p<0.01). These three changes point to an alteration of the global myelin status of the premutation carriers. Subsequently, to analyze the regional myelination and white matter integrity of the same group, we performed a ROI analysis of MTR data. The ROI-based analysis showed a decrease of mean MTR value in premutation carriers compared to controls in bilateral orbito-frontal and inferior frontal WM, entorhinal and cingulum regions and cerebellum (Fig 3). The detection of these differences in these regions failed with other conventional MR techniques. Conclusions: These preliminary data confirm that in premutation carriers, there are indeed alterations in "normal appearing white matter" (NAWM) and these alterations are visible with the MT technique. These results indicate that MT imaging may be a relevant approach to detect both global and local alterations within NAWM in "asymptomatic" carriers of premutations in the Fragile X Mental Retardation 1 (FMR1) gene. The sensitivity of MT in the detection of these alterations might point towards a specific physiopathological mechanism linked to an underlying myelin disorder. ROI-based analyses show that the frontal, parahippocampal and cerebellar regions are already significantly affected before the onset of symptoms. A larger sample will allow us to determine the minimum CGG expansion and age associated with these subclinical white matter alterations.

High expectation in non-evidence-based smoking cessation interventions among smokers--the CoLaus study.

To assess the preferred methods to quit smoking among current smokers. Cross-sectional, population-based study conducted in Lausanne between 2003 and 2006 including 988 current smokers. Preference was assessed by questionnaire. Evidence-based (EB) methods were nicotine replacement, bupropion, physician or group consultations; non-EB-based methods were acupuncture, hypnosis and autogenic training. EB methods were frequently (physician consultation: 48%, 95% confidence interval (45-51); nicotine replacement therapy: 35% (32-38)) or rarely (bupropion and group consultations: 13% (11-15)) preferred by the participants. Non-EB methods were preferred by a third (acupuncture: 33% (30-36)), a quarter (hypnosis: 26% (23-29)) or a seventh (autogenic training: 13% (11-15)) of responders. On multivariate analysis, women preferred both EB and non-EB methods more frequently than men (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval: 1.46 (1.10-1.93) and 2.26 (1.72-2.96) for any EB and non-EB method, respectively). Preference for non-EB methods was higher among highly educated participants, while no such relationship was found for EB methods. Many smokers are unaware of the full variety of methods to quit smoking. Better information regarding these methods is necessary.

DAS-28-based EULAR response and HAQ improvement in rheumatoid arthritis patients switching between TNF antagonists

INTRODUCTION No definitive data are available regarding the value of switching to an alternative TNF antagonist in rheumatoid arthritis patients who fail to respond to the first one. The aim of this study was to evaluate treatment response in a clinical setting based on HAQ improvement and EULAR response criteria in RA patients who were switched to a second or a third TNF antagonist due to failure with the first one. METHODS This was an observational, prospective study of a cohort of 417 RA patients treated with TNF antagonists in three university hospitals in Spain between January 1999 and December 2005. A database was created at the participating centres, with well-defined operational instructions. The main outcome variables were analyzed using parametric or non-parametric tests depending on the level of measurement and distribution of each variable. RESULTS Mean (+/- SD) DAS-28 on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 5.9 (+/- 2.0), 5.1 (+/- 1.5) and 6.1 (+/- 1.1). At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 3.3 (+/- 1.6; Delta = -2.6; p > 0.0001), 4.2 (+/- 1.5; Delta = -1.1; p = 0.0001) and 5.4 (+/- 1.7; Delta = -0.7; p = 0.06). For the first TNF antagonist, DAS-28-based EULAR response level was good in 42% and moderate in 33% of patients. The second TNF antagonist yielded a good response in 20% and no response in 53% of patients, while the third one yielded a good response in 28% and no response in 72%. Mean baseline HAQ on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 1.61, 1.52 and 1.87, respectively. At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 1.12 (Delta = -0.49; p < 0.0001), 1.31 (Delta = -0.21, p = 0.004) and 1.75 (Delta = -0.12; p = 0.1), respectively. Sixty four percent of patients had a clinically important improvement in HAQ (defined as > or = -0.22) with the first TNF antagonist and 46% with the second. CONCLUSION A clinically significant effect size was seen in less than half of RA patients cycling to a second TNF antagonist.

Th1 and Th17 hypercytokinemia as early host response signature in severe pandemic influenza.

INTRODUCTION Human host immune response following infection with the new variant of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza virus (nvH1N1) is poorly understood. We utilize here systemic cytokine and antibody levels in evaluating differences in early immune response in both mild and severe patients infected with nvH1N1. METHODS We profiled 29 cytokines and chemokines and evaluated the haemagglutination inhibition activity as quantitative and qualitative measurements of host immune responses in serum obtained during the first five days after symptoms onset, in two cohorts of nvH1N1 infected patients. Severe patients required hospitalization (n = 20), due to respiratory insufficiency (10 of them were admitted to the intensive care unit), while mild patients had exclusively flu-like symptoms (n = 15). A group of healthy donors was included as control (n = 15). Differences in levels of mediators between groups were assessed by using the non parametric U-Mann Whitney test. Association between variables was determined by calculating the Spearman correlation coefficient. Viral load was performed in serum by using real-time PCR targeting the neuraminidase gene. RESULTS Increased levels of innate-immunity mediators (IP-10, MCP-1, MIP-1beta), and the absence of anti-nvH1N1 antibodies, characterized the early response to nvH1N1 infection in both hospitalized and mild patients. High systemic levels of type-II interferon (IFN-gamma) and also of a group of mediators involved in the development of T-helper 17 (IL-8, IL-9, IL-17, IL-6) and T-helper 1 (TNF-alpha, IL-15, IL-12p70) responses were exclusively found in hospitalized patients. IL-15, IL-12p70, IL-6 constituted a hallmark of critical illness in our study. A significant inverse association was found between IL-6, IL-8 and PaO2 in critical patients. CONCLUSIONS While infection with the nvH1N1 induces a typical innate response in both mild and severe patients, severe disease with respiratory involvement is characterized by early secretion of Th17 and Th1 cytokines usually associated with cell mediated immunity but also commonly linked to the pathogenesis of autoimmune/inflammatory diseases. The exact role of Th1 and Th17 mediators in the evolution of nvH1N1 mild and severe disease merits further investigation as to the detrimental or beneficial role these cytokines play in severe illness.

Acute experimental Trypanosoma cruzi infection: establishing a murine model that utilises non-invasive measurements of disease parameters

Trypanosoma cruzi infection has a large public health impact in Latin American countries. Although the transmission rates via blood transfusions and insect vectors have declined sharply in the past 20 years due to policies of the Southern Cone countries, a large number of people are still at risk for infection. Currently, no accepted experimental model or descriptions of the clinical signs that occur during the course of acute murine infection are available. The aim of this work was to use non-invasive methods to evaluate the clinical signs of Balb/c mice infected with the Y strain of T. cruzi. The infected mice displayed evident clinical changes beginning in the third week of infection. The mice were evaluated based on physical characteristics, spontaneous activity, exploratory behaviour and physiological alterations. We hope that the results presented in this report provide parameters that complement the effective monitoring of trypanocidal treatment and other interventions used to treat experimental Chagas disease.

Evaluation of factors affecting plate waste of inpatients in different healthcare settings.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Satisfaction of inpatients with served food within a hospital care system still constitutes one of the main attempts to modernize food services. The impact of type of menu, food category, hospital centre and timetable on the meals wastage produced in different Spanish healthcare settings, was evaluated. METHODS: Meal wastage was measured through a semiquantitative 5-point scale ("nothing on plate"; "¼ on plate"; "half on plate"; "¾ on plate" and "all on plate"). The study was carried out in two periods of three months each in 2010 and 2011. A trained person took charge of measuring plate waste classified into 726 servings belonging to 11 menus. In total 31,392 plates were served to 7,868 inpatients. A Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric test (p < 0.05) was applied to evaluate significant differences among the variables studied. RESULTS: The menus were satisfactorily consumed because more than 50% of the plates were classified as "nothing on plate". Regarding food categories, 26.78% of the plates corresponded to soups and purées, while pasta and rice, and prepared foods were only distributed in 4-5% of the servings. Desserts were mostly consumed, while cooked vegetables were less accepted by the inpatients evaluated. Other factors such as hospital centre influenced plate waste (p < 0.05) but timetable did not (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Visual inspections of plate waste might be useful to optimize type and quality of menus served. The type of menu served and the food category could have a great influence on food acceptability by the inpatientsstudied.

El implante de condrocitos autólogos en la red sanitaria pública de Andalucía. Resultados tras 6 años de circuito asistencial.

Objective: To asses the results of Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation (ACI) whith periosteal patch and To propagate the care circuits existing about in Andalusia. Material and Methods: From its of ficial licence in 2005, the tissue bank and the Virgen de la Victoria Hospital from Málaga, performed the ACI in the Andalusian public health system. 16 patients has been operated between 2006-2013, whith medium follow-up 47,6 months (6 months-6 years), from public hos- pitals throughout Andalucia, managed by hospital admission source and destination. Physiologically younger patients were selected (<50 años), with singles, > 2cm2 symptomatics chondral lesions, in stables and well aligned knees. ACI was used as res- cue procedure after microfracture ́s failure except osteochondritis dissecans. To assess the results the Concinnati score and the Short Form 36 (SF-36) score were used. A descriptive analysis was performed and non-parametric tests were used to establish correlations and compare results. Results: In 15 patients with more than one year of follow-up: 14 men(87.5%) and 2women (14.5%), medium age 28.2 years old (min 17 max 43), the lesion was located into de femoral condyle, mostly in the internal one (81,2%) with medium size 2,7cm2(2-4,2). We founded significant improvement (p<0,001), both daily activities ( 89,3% preop. limitatión - 9% postop), as in the sports (90,2% preop limitatión - 38% postop) and the exploration of the knee (67,7% hpatological findings preop- 13,3%postop). The SF-36 score improved in all categories, over all in mental health (p> 0,01). The patient satisfaction was high or very high in 12 of the 15 patients ( 80%), and low in 3 patients. Conclusions: ACI improve quality of life and knee function in femoral condyle chondral lesions. The case ́s selection and the collaboration with Tissue Bank, allows us to create care circuits for treatment of patients from other provinces in the Public Sanitary Health System in Andalucia. It is necessary to increase the experience with this type of therapy, consolidating multicenter workgroups that provide strength to the conclusions.

The Effect of Valsartan versus Non-RAAS Treatment on Autoregulation of Cerebral Blood Flow.

Background: Cerebral autoregulation (CA) is a protective mechanism which maintains the steadiness of the cerebral blood flow (CBF) through a broad range of systemic blood pressure (BP). Acute hypertension has been shown to reduce the cerebrovascular adaptation to BP variations. However, it is still unknown whether CA is impaired in chronic hypertension. This study evaluated whether a strict control of BP affects the CA in patients with chronic hypertension, and compared a valsartan-based regimen to a regimen not inhibiting the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (non-RAAS). Methods: Eighty untreated patients with isolated systolic hypertension were randomized to valsartan 320 mg or to a non-RAAS regimen during 6 months. The medication was upgraded to obtain BP <140/90 mm Hg. Continuous recordings of arterial BP and CBF velocity (transcranial Doppler) were performed during periods of 5 minutes, at rest, and at different levels of alveolar CO(2) pressure provided by respiratory maneuvers. The dominant frequency of CBF oscillations was determined for each patient. Dynamic CA was measured as the mean phase shift between BP and CBF by cross-spectral analysis in the medium frequency and in the dominant CBF frequency. Results: Mean ambulatory 24-hour BP fell from 144/87 to 127/79 mm Hg in the valsartan group and from 144/87 to 134/81 mm Hg in the non-RAAS group (p = 0.13). Both groups had a similar reduction in the central BP and in the carotido-femoral pulse wave velocity. The average phase shift between BP fluctuations and CBF response at rest was normal at randomization (1.82 ± 0.08 s), which is considered a preserved autoregulation and increased to 1.91 ± 0.12 s at the end of study (p = 0.45). The comparison of both treatments showed no significant difference (-0.01 ± 0.17 s vs. 0.16 ± 0.16 s, p = 0.45) for valsartan versus non-RAAS groups. The plasmatic level of glycosylated hemoglobin decreased in the valsartan arm compared to the non-RAAS arm (-0.23 ± 0.06 vs. -0.08 ± 0.07%, p = 0.07). Conclusions: In elderly hypertensive men with isolated chronic systolic hypertension, CA seems efficient at baseline and is not significantly affected by 6 months of BP-lowering treatment. This suggests that the preventive effects of BP medication against stroke are not mediated through a restoration of the CA.

Epigenetic mechanisms in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An emerging field.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging health concern in both developed and non-developed world, encompassing from simple steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and liver cancer. Incidence and prevalence of this disease are increasing due to the socioeconomic transition and change to harmful diet. Currently, gold standard method in NAFLD diagnosis is liver biopsy, despite complications and lack of accuracy due to sampling error. Further, pathogenesis of NAFLD is not fully understood, but is well-known that obesity, diabetes and metabolic derangements played a major role in disease development and progression. Besides, gut microbioma and host genetic and epigenetic background could explain considerable interindividual variability. Knowledge that epigenetics, heritable events not caused by changes in DNA sequence, contribute to development of diseases has been a revolution in the last few years. Recently, evidences are accumulating revealing the important role of epigenetics in NAFLD pathogenesis and in NASH genesis. Histone modifications, changes in DNA methylation and aberrant profiles or microRNAs could boost development of NAFLD and transition into clinical relevant status. PNPLA3 genotype GG has been associated with a more progressive disease and epigenetics could modulate this effect. The impact of epigenetic on NAFLD progression could deserve further applications on therapeutic targets together with future non-invasive methods useful for the diagnosis and staging of NAFLD.

Teaching motivational interviewing to medical students : a pre-post test pilot study

Objective: To test the efficacy of teaching motivational interviewing (MI) to medical students. Methods: Thirteen 4th year medical students volunteered to participate. Seven days before and 7 days after an 8-hour interactive training MI workshop, each student performed a videorecorded interview with two standardized patients: a 60 year old alcohol dependent woman and a 50 year old cigarette smoking man. Students' counseling skills were coded by two blinded clinicians using the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity 3.0 (MITI). Inter-rater reliability was calculated for all interviews and a test-retest was completed in a sub-sample of 10 consecutive interviews three days apart. Difference between MITI scores before and after training were calculated and tested using non-parametric tests. Effect size was approximated by calculating the probability that posttest scores are greater than pretest scores (P*=P(Pre<Post)+1/2P(Pre=Post)), P*>1/2 indicating greater scores in posttest, P*=1/2 no effect, and P*<1/2 smaller scores in posttest. Results: Median differences between MITI scores before and after MI training indicated a general progression in MI skills: MI spirit global score (median difference=1.5, Inter quartile range=1.5, p<0.001, P*=0.90); Empathy global score (med diff=1, IQR=0.5, p<0.001, P*=0.85); Percentage of MI adherent skills (med diff=36.6, IQR=50.5, p<0.001, P*=0.85); Percentage of open questions (med diff=18.6, IQR=21.6, p<0.001, P*=0.96); reflections/ questions ratio (med diff=0.2, IQR=0.4, p<0.001, P*=0.81). Only Direction global score and the percentage of complex reflections were not significantly improved (med diff=0, IQR=1, p=0.53, P*=0.44, and med diff=4.3, IQR=24.8, p=0.48, P*=0.62, respectively). Inter-rater reliability indicated weighted kappa ranged between 0.14 for Direction to 0.51 for Collaboration and ICC ranged between 0.28 for Simple reflection to 0.95 for Closed question. Test-retests indicated weighted kappa ranged between 0.27 for Direction to 0.80 for Empathy and ICC ranged between 0.87 for Complex reflection to 0.98 for Closed question. Conclusion: This pilot study indicated that an 8-hour training in MI for voluntary 4th year medical students resulted in significant improvement of MI skills. Larger sample of unselected medical students should be studied to generalize the benefit of MI training to medical students. Interrater reliability and test-retests suggested that coders' training should be intensified.

Myocardial flow reserve by Rb-82 cardiac PET improves the selection of patients eligible for invasive coronary angiography

Aim: We asked whether myocardial flow reserve (MFR) by Rb-82 cardiac PET improve the selection of patients eligible for invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Material and Methods: We enrolled 26 consecutive patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease who performed dynamic Rb-82 PET/CT and (ICA) within 60 days; 4 patients who underwent revascularization or had any cardiovascular events between PET and ICA were excluded. Myocardial blood flow at rest (rMBF), at stress with adenosine (sMBF) and myocardial flow reserve (MFR=sMBF/rMBF) were estimated using the 1-compartment Lortie model (FlowQuant) for each coronary arteries territories. Stenosis severity was assessed using computer-based automated edge detection (QCA). MFR was divided in 3 groups: G1:MFR<1.5, G2:1.5≤MFR<2 and G3:2≤MFR. Stenosis severity was graded as non-significant (<50% or FFR ≥0.8), intermediate (50%≤stenosis<70%) and severe (≥70%). Correlation between MFR and percentage of stenosis were assessed using a non-parametric Spearman test. Results: In G1 (44 vessels), 17 vessels (39%) had a severe stenosis, 11 (25%) an intermediate one, and 16 (36%) no significant stenosis. In G2 (13 vessels), 2 (15%) vessels presented a severe stenosis, 7 (54%) an intermediate one, and 4 (31%) no significant stenosis. In G3 (9 vessels), 0 vessel presented a severe stenosis, 1 (11%) an intermediate one, and 8 (89%) no significant stenosis. Of note, among 11 patients with 3-vessel low MFR<1.5 (G1), 9/11 (82%) had at least one severe stenosis and 2/11 (18%) had at least one intermediate stenosis. There was a significant inverse correlation between stenosis severity and MFR among all 66 territories analyzed (rho= -0.38, p=0.002). Conclusion: Patients with MFR>2 could avoid ICA. Low MFR (G1, G2) on a vessel-based analysis seems to be a poor predictor of severe stenosis severity. Patients with 3-vessel low MFR would benefit from ICA as they are likely to present a significant stenosis in at least one vessel.

Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.