Individual risk prediction of nodal and distant metastasis for patients with typical bronchial carcinoid tumors

Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of HRT-3 glaucoma probability score and subjective stereophotograph assessment for prediction of progression in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PREDICTION OF FAT-FREE MASS BY BIOELECTRICAL IMPEDANCE ANALYSIS IN OLDER ADULTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A CROSS-VALIDATION STUDY USING THE DEUTERIUM DILUTION METHOD

Objective: Several limitations of published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations have been reported. The aims were to develop in a multiethnic, elderly population a new prediction equation and cross-validate it along with some published BIA equations for estimating fat-free mass using deuterium oxide dilution as the reference method. Design and setting: Cross-sectional study of elderly from five developing countries. Methods: Total body water (TBW) measured by deuterium dilution was used to determine fat-free mass (FFM) in 383 subjects. Anthropometric and BIA variables were also measured. Only 377 subjects were included for the analysis, randomly divided into development and cross-validation groups after stratified by gender. Stepwise model selection was used to generate the model and Bland Altman analysis was used to test agreement. Results: FFM = 2.95 - 3.89 (Gender) + 0.514 (Ht(2)/Z) + 0.090 (Waist) + 0.156 (Body weight). The model fit parameters were an R(2), total F-Ratio, and the SEE of 0.88, 314.3, and 3.3, respectively. None of the published BIA equations met the criteria for agreement. The new BIA equation underestimated FFM by just 0.3 kg in the cross-validation sample. The mean of the difference between FFM by TBW and the new BIA equation were not significantly different; 95% of the differences were between the limits of agreement of -6.3 to 6.9 kg of FFM. There was no significant association between the mean of the differences and their averages (r = 0.008 and p = 0.2). Conclusions: This new BIA equation offers a valid option compared with some of the current published BIA equations to estimate FFM in elderly subjects from five developing countries.

Comparison between Eysenck's and Gray's models of personality in the prediction of motivational work criteria

Impulsivity based on Gray's [Gray, J. A. (1982) The neuropsychology of anxiety: an enquiry into the function of the septo-hippocampal system. New York: Oxford University Press: (1991). The neurophysiology of temperament. In J. Strelau & A. Angleitner. Explorations in temperament: international perspectives on theory and measurement. London. Plenum Press]. physiological model of personality was hypothesised to be more predictive of goal oriented criteria within the workplace than scales derived From Eysenck's [Eysenck. H.J. (1967). The biological basis of personality. Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thompson.] physiological model of personality. Results confirmed the hypothesis and also showed that Gray's scale of Impulsivity was generally a better predictor than attributional style and interest in money. Results were interpreted as providing support for Gray's Behavioural Activation System which moderates response to reward. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moderating effect of ear preference on personality in the prediction of sales performance

This study examined the relationship between ear preference, personality, and performance ratings on 203 telesales staff. Social desirability scores were a significant predictor of two relatively independent sets of supervisor ratings (actual performance and developmental potential) in interaction with ear preference. It was found that the social desirability scale was a significant positive predictor for staff preferring a right ear headset, but a negative predictor for staff preferring a left ear headset. These results were interpreted in terms of different strategies used to achieve successful sales.