Efficient search for statistically significant dependency rules in binary data

Analyzing statistical dependencies is a fundamental problem in all empirical science. Dependencies help us understand causes and effects, create new scientific theories, and invent cures to problems. Nowadays, large amounts of data is available, but efficient computational tools for analyzing the data are missing. In this research, we develop efficient algorithms for a commonly occurring search problem - searching for the statistically most significant dependency rules in binary data. We consider dependency rules of the form X->A or X->not A, where X is a set of positive-valued attributes and A is a single attribute. Such rules describe which factors either increase or decrease the probability of the consequent A. A classical example are genetic and environmental factors, which can either cause or prevent a disease. The emphasis in this research is that the discovered dependencies should be genuine - i.e. they should also hold in future data. This is an important distinction from the traditional association rules, which - in spite of their name and a similar appearance to dependency rules - do not necessarily represent statistical dependencies at all or represent only spurious connections, which occur by chance. Therefore, the principal objective is to search for the rules with statistical significance measures. Another important objective is to search for only non-redundant rules, which express the real causes of dependence, without any occasional extra factors. The extra factors do not add any new information on the dependence, but can only blur it and make it less accurate in future data. The problem is computationally very demanding, because the number of all possible rules increases exponentially with the number of attributes. In addition, neither the statistical dependency nor the statistical significance are monotonic properties, which means that the traditional pruning techniques do not work. As a solution, we first derive the mathematical basis for pruning the search space with any well-behaving statistical significance measures. The mathematical theory is complemented by a new algorithmic invention, which enables an efficient search without any heuristic restrictions. The resulting algorithm can be used to search for both positive and negative dependencies with any commonly used statistical measures, like Fisher's exact test, the chi-squared measure, mutual information, and z scores. According to our experiments, the algorithm is well-scalable, especially with Fisher's exact test. It can easily handle even the densest data sets with 10000-20000 attributes. Still, the results are globally optimal, which is a remarkable improvement over the existing solutions. In practice, this means that the user does not have to worry whether the dependencies hold in future data or if the data still contains better, but undiscovered dependencies.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

Bending the Rules of Cell Protrusions : Molecular Mechanisms and Biological Roles of Inverse-BAR Proteins in Cell Morphogenesis

Plasma membrane adopts myriad of different shapes to carry out essential cellular processes such as nutrient uptake, immunological defence mechanisms and cell migration. Therefore, the details how different plasma membrane structures are made and remodelled are of the upmost importance. Bending of plasma membrane into different shapes requires substantial amount of force, which can be provided by the actin cytoskeleton, however, the molecules that regulate the interplay between the actin cytoskeleton and plasma membrane have remained elusive. Recent findings have placed new types of effectors at sites of plasma membrane remodelling, including BAR proteins, which can directly bind and deform plasma membrane into different shapes. In addition to their membrane-bending abilities, BAR proteins also harbor protein domains that intimately link them to the actin cytoskeleton. The ancient BAR domain fold has evolved into at least three structurally and functionally different sub-groups: the BAR, F-BAR and I-BAR domains. This thesis work describes the discovery and functional characterization of the Inverse-BAR domains (I-BARs). Using synthetic model membranes, we have shown that I-BAR domains bind and deform membranes into tubular structures through a binding-surface composed of positively charged amino acids. Importantly, the membrane-binding surface of I-BAR domains displays an inverse geometry to that of the BAR and F-BAR domains, and these structural differences explain why I-BAR domains induce cell protrusions whereas BAR and most F-BAR domains induce cell invaginations. In addition, our results indicate that the binding of I-BAR domains to membranes can alter the spatial organization of phosphoinositides within membranes. Intriguingly, we also found that some I-BAR domains can insert helical motifs into the membrane bilayer, which has important consequences for their membrane binding/bending functions. In mammals there are five I-BAR domain containing proteins. Cell biological studies on ABBA revealed that it is highly expressed in radial glial cells during the development of the central nervous system and plays an important role in the extension process of radial glia-like C6R cells by regulating lamellipodial dynamics through its I-BAR domain. To reveal the role of these proteins in the context of animals, we analyzed MIM knockout mice and found that MIM is required for proper renal functions in adult mice. MIM deficient mice displayed a severe urine concentration defect due to defective intercellular junctions of the kidney epithelia. Consistently, MIM localized to adherens junctions in cultured kidney epithelial cells, where it promoted actin assembly through its I-BAR andWH2 domains. In summary, this thesis describes the mechanism how I-BAR proteins deform membranes and provides information about the biological role of these proteins, which to our knowledge are the first proteins that have been shown to directly deform plasma membrane to make cell protrusions.

Not all corporate tax avoiders will be snared by new rules

Hockey’s budget announcement of two major tax integrity measures was flagged before the budget was handed down, but even that came as no surprise. Integrity, or lack thereof, in our tax system is a hot topic and an easy target for a Treasurer looking to sell a federal budget. The first of the proposed changes is to our GST regime. No-one likes hearing that they will be paying more tax. But, the charging of GST on supplies of digital products and services in Australia by an off-shore supplier will at least make sense to the general public. With the inherent unfairness in the current system and a revenue raising prediction of A$350 million over the next four years, most are likely to accept the logic of such a measure. The second of the proposed changes are new laws to be included in Australia’s general anti-avoidance provision. New laws, which will apply from 1 January 2016, are aimed at multinational companies engaged in aggressive tax practices. The proposed anti-avoidance law is designed to stop multinationals that artificially avoid a taxable presence in Australia. It is difficult to see how this strategy of addressing specific behaviour through what is considered a general provision will work. And, it is these changes that are already causing confusion.

Government cracks down on tax avoidance through foreign investment rules

The Turnbull Government announced yet another measure aimed at addressing tax base erosion and profit shifting, placing additional requirements on new foreign investment under the existing national interest test. In the last 12 months Australia has seen various reforms within the tax system. However, this latest initiative is a shift as it links Australia’s tax regime with its foreign investment regime. It sends a broader signal to the market that Australia will look beyond the collection of tax revenues to a consideration of national interest.

Assessing taxpayer response to legislative changes: A case study of ‘in-house’ fringe benefits rules

On 22 October 2012, the Australian Federal Government announced the removal of the $1,000 in-house fringe benefits concession when used as part of a salary packaging arrangement. At the time of the announcement, the Federal Government predicted that the removal of the concession would contribute additional tax revenue of $445 million over the following four years as well as an increase of GST payments to the States and Territories. However, anecdotal evidence at the same time indicated that the Australian employer response was to immediately stop providing employees with such in-house fringe benefits via salary sacrificing arrangements. Data presented in this article, collected from a combination of interviews with tax managers of four Australian entities as well as a review of the published archival data, confirms that the abolition of the $1,000 in-house fringe benefits concession was perceived as a negative change, whereby employees were considered the ‘big losers’ despite assertions by the Federal Government to the contrary. Using a conceptual map of tax rule change developed by Oats and Sadler, this article seeks to understand the reasons for this fringe benefits tax change and taxpayer response. In particular, the economic and political factors, and the responses of the relevant taxpayers (employers) are explored. Drawing on behavioural economic concepts, the actions, attitudes and response of employers to the rule change are also examined. The research findings suggest that the decision by Australian employers to cease providing the in-house fringe benefits as part of a salary-packaging arrangement after the legislative amendment was impacted by more than simple rational behaviour.

Reducing tariffs according to WTO accession rules: The case of Vietnam

When Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007 it was granted an accession period up to 2014. During this period tariffs would have to fall according to the accession agreement. This paper evaluates this 2007–2014 trade liberalization by building an applied general equilibrium model and calibrating it to the Vietnamese data. The model pays careful attention to the fact that Vietnam has many state-owned enterprises. The model simulations show that the WTO tariff reductions will reduce overall welfare. Moreover, the biggest loss will take place among the poor rural households in Vietnam. This paper proposes other tariff reforms that will both raise overall welfare and reduce income inequality.

Transfer pricing rules and competing governments

The literature on the regulation of multinationals' transfer prices has not considered the possibility that governments may use transfer pricing rules strategically when they compete with other governments. The present paper analyses this case and shows that, even in the absence of agency considerations, a non‐cooperative equilibrium is characterised by above‐optimal levels of effective taxation. We then derive conditions under which harmonization of transfer pricing rules lead to a Pareto improvement, and show that harmonization according to the ‘arm's length’ principle—the form of harmonization advocated by the OECD—may not be Pareto improving.

Temperature independent mixing rules to correlate the solubilities of antibiotics and anti-inflammatory drugs in SCCO2

The accurate experimental determination of the solubilities of antibiotics and anti-inflammatory drugs in supercritical fluids (SCFs) and correlations are essential for the development of supercritical technologies for the pharmaceuticals industry. In this work, the solubilities of penicillinG, penicillinV, flurbiprofen, ketoprofen, naproxen, ibuprofen, aspirin and diflunisal in supercritical carbon dioxide (SCCO2) were correlated using Peng-Robinson equation of state (PR EOS) with the modified Kwak and Mansoori mixing rules (mKM) and with Bartle model. The ability of mKM rules was compared against the conventional mixing rules of van der Waals in correlating the solubilities. In the present model, vapor pressure was considered as an adjustable parameter along with binary interactions parameters. In the proposed model, the constants used in the mixing rule, and vapor pressure expression coefficients are temperature independent. The optimization of these constants with experimental data gives binary interaction parameters along with vapor pressure correlations. Sublimation enthalpies were estimated with both the models compared with literature reported experimental values.

Generic Routing Rules and a Scalable Access Enhancement for the Network-on-Chip RECONNECT

RECONNECT is a Network-on-Chip using a honeycomb topology. In this paper we focus on properties of general rules applicable to a variety of routing algorithms for the NoC which take into account the missing links of the honeycomb topology when compared to a mesh. We also extend the original proposal [5] and show a method to insert and extract data to and from the network. Access Routers at the boundary of the execution fabric establish connections to multiple periphery modules and create a torus to decrease the node distances. Our approach is scalable and ensures homogeneity among the compute elements in the NoC. We synthesized and evaluated the proposed enhancement in terms of power dissipation and area. Our results indicate that the impact of necessary alterations to the fabric is negligible and effects the data transfer between the fabric and the periphery only marginally.

Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Ising pyrochlore magnets: Low-temperature properties, "ice rules," and beyond

Pyrochlore magnets are candidates for what Harris et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 79, 2554 (1997)] call "spin-ice" behavior. We present theoretical simulations of relevance for the pyrochlore family R2Ti2O7 (R = rare earth) supported by magnetothermal measurements on selected systems. Ey considering long-ranged dipole-dipole as well as short-ranged superexchange interactions, we get three distinct behaviors: (i) an ordered doubly degenerate state, (ii) a highly disordered state with a broad transition to paramagnetism, and (iii) a partially ordered state with a sharp transition to paramagnetism. Closely corresponding behavior is seen in the real compounds.

Shear sum rules at finite chemical potential

We derive sum rules which constrain the spectral density corresponding to the retarded propagator of the T-xy component of the stress tensor for three gravitational duals. The shear sum rule is obtained for the gravitational dual of the N = 4 Yang-Mills, theory of the M2-branes and M5-branes all at finite chemical potential. We show that at finite chemical potential there are additional terms in the sum rule which involve the chemical potential. These modifications are shown to be due to the presence of scalars in the operator product expansion of the stress tensor which have non-trivial vacuum expectation values at finite chemical potential.