Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Improving accuracy for OTD based 3G geolocation in real urban/suburban environments

This paper presents the recent research results about the development of a Observed Time Difference (OTD) based geolocation algorithm based on network trace data, for a real Universal Mobile Telecommunication System (UMTS) Network. The initial results have been published in [1], the current paper focus on increasing the sample convergence rate, and introducing a new filtering approach based on a moving average spatial filter, to increase accuracy. Field tests have been carried out for two radio environments (urban and suburban) in the Lisbon area, Portugal. The new enhancements produced a geopositioning success rate of 47% and 31%, and a median accuracy of 151 m and 337 m, for the urban and suburban environments, respectively. The implemented filter produced a 16% and 20% increase on accuracy, when compared with the geopositioned raw data. The obtained results are rather promising in accuracy and geolocation success rate. OTD positioning smoothed by moving average spatial filtering reveals a strong approach for positioning trace extracted events, vital for boosting Self-Organizing Networks (SON) over a 3G network.

Renewable power forecast to scheduling of thermal units

In this work is discussed the importance of the renewable production forecast in an island environment. A probabilistic forecast based on kernel density estimators is proposed. The aggregation of these forecasts, allows the determination of thermal generation amount needed to schedule and operating a power grid of an island with high penetration of renewable generation. A case study based on electric system of S. Miguel Island is presented. The results show that the forecast techniques are an imperative tool help the grid management.

Using mobile device detection approaches to augment the accuracy of web delivery content

Recent studies of mobile Web trends show a continuous explosion of mobile-friendly content. However, the increasing number and heterogeneity of mobile devices poses several challenges for Web programmers who want to automatically get the delivery context and adapt the content to mobile devices. In this process, the devices detection phase assumes an important role where an inaccurate detection could result in a poor mobile experience for the enduser. In this paper we compare the most promising approaches for mobile device detection. Based on this study, we present an architecture for a system to detect and deliver uniform m-Learning content to students in a Higher School. We focus mainly on the devices capabilities repository manageable and accessible through an API. We detail the structure of the capabilities XML Schema that formalizes the data within the devices capabilities XML repository and the REST Web Service API for selecting the correspondent devices capabilities data according to a specific request. Finally, we validate our approach by presenting the access and usage statistics of the mobile web interface of the proposed system such as hits and new visitors, mobile platforms, average time on site and rejection rate.

Short-term Wind Forecasting to Support Virtual Power Player Operation

This paper proposes a wind speed forecasting model that contributes to the development and implementation of adequate methodologies for Energy Resource Man-agement in a distribution power network, with intensive use of wind based power generation. The proposed fore-casting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, name-ly with a time horizon of 10 minutes. A case study using a real database from the meteoro-logical station installed in the GECAD renewable energy lab was used. A new wind speed forecasting model has been implemented and it estimated accuracy was evalu-ated and compared with a previous developed forecast-ing model. Using as input attributes the information of the wind speed concerning the previous 3 hours enables to obtain results with high accuracy for the wind short-term forecasting.

Distributed energy resources scheduling considering real-time resources forecast

Energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, such as the use of more distributed generators and electric vehicles connected to the distribution network. This paper proposes a methodology to be used by Virtual Power Players (VPPs), regarding the energy resource scheduling in smart grids and considering day-ahead, hour-ahead and realtime time horizons. This method considers that energy resources are managed by a VPP which establishes contracts with their owners. The full AC power flow calculation included in the model takes into account network constraints. In this paper, distribution function errors are used to simulate variations between time horizons, and to measure the performance of the proposed methodology. A 33-bus distribution network with large number of distributed resources is used.

High-Accuracy Low-Cost RTK-GPS for an Unmanned Surface Vehicle

This work presents a low cost RTK-GPS system for localization of unmanned surface vehicles. The system is based on the use of standard low cost L1 band receivers and in the RTKlib open source software library. Mission scenarios with multiple robotic vehicles are addressed as the ones envisioned in the ICARUS search and rescue case where the possibility of having a moving RTK base on a large USV and multiple smaller vehicles acting as rovers in a local communication network allows for local relative localization with high quality. The approach is validated in operational conditions with results presented for moving base scenario. The system was implemented in the SWIFT USV with the ROAZ autonomous surface vehicle acting as a moving base. This setup allows for the performing of a missions in a wider range of environments and applications such as precise 3D environment modeling in contained areas and multiple robot operations.

C-reactive protein at 24 hours after hospital admission may have relevant prognostic accuracy in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction: C-reactive protein (CRP) and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) have been used in early risk assessment of patients with AP. Objectives: We evaluated prognostic accuracy of CRP at 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) for in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP individually and with BISAP. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 134 patients with AP from a Portuguese hospital in 2009---2010. Prognostic accuracy assessment used area under receiver---operating characteristic curve (AUC), continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results: Thirteen percent of patients had severe AP, 26% developed pancreatic necrosis, and 7% died during index hospital stay. AUCs for CRP24 and BISAP individually were 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65---0.95) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.59---0.95), respectively. No patients with CRP24 <60 mg/l died (P = 0.027; negative predictive value 100% (95% CI 92.3---100%)). AUC for BISAP plus CRP24 was 0.81 (95% CI 0.65---0.97). Change in NRI nonevents (42.4%; 95% CI, 24.9---59.9%) resulted in positive overall NRI (31.3%; 95% CI, − 36.4% to 98.9%), but IDI nonevents was negligible (0.004; 95% CI, − 0.007 to 0.014). Conclusions: CRP24 revealed good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP; its main role may be the selection of lowest risk patients.

EVALUATION OF METHODS IN DETECTING VANCOMYCIN MIC AMONG MRSA ISOLATES AND THE CHANGES IN ACCURACY RELATED TO DIFFERENT MIC VALUES

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) presenting reduced susceptibility to vancomycin has been associated to therapeutic failure. Some methods used by clinical laboratories may not be sufficiently accurate to detect this phenotype, compromising results and the outcome of the patient. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of methods in the detection of vancomycin MIC values among clinical isolates of MRSA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Vancomycin Minimal Inhibitory Concentration was determined for 75 MRSA isolates from inpatients of Mãe de Deus Hospital, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The broth microdilution (BM) was used as the gold-standard technique, as well as the following methods: E-test® strips (BioMérieux), M.I.C.E® strips (Oxoid), PROBAC® commercial panel and the automated system MicroScan® (Siemens). Besides, the agar screening test was carried out with 3 µg/mL of vancomycin. RESULTS: All isolates presented MIC ≤ 2 µg/mL for BM. E-test® had higher concordance (40%) in terms of global agreement with the gold standard, and there was not statistical difference among E-test® and broth microdilution results. PROBAC® panels presented MICs, in general, lower than the gold-standard panels (58.66% major errors), while M.I.C.E.® MICs were higher (67.99% minor errors). CONCLUSIONS: For the population of MRSA in question, E-test® presented the best performance, although with a heterogeneous accuracy, depending on MIC values.

The impact of questions rotation in response accuracy

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Archaeometallurgical study of the Proto-historic collection of Moinhos de Golas (North Portugal): a forecast for technological changes?

This work presents the archaeometallurgical study of a group of metallic artefacts found in Moinhos de Golas site, Vila Real (North of Portugal), that can generically be attributed to Proto-history (1st millennium BC, Late Bronze Age and Iron Age). The collection is composed by 35 objects: weapons, ornaments and tools, and others of difficult classification, as rings, bars and one small thin bent sheet. Some of the objects can typologically be attributed to Late Bronze Age, others are of more difficult specific attribution. The archaeometallurgical study involved x-ray digital radiography, elemental analysis by micro-energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy, microstructural observations by optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The radiographic images revealed structural heterogeneities frequently related with the degradation of some artefacts and the elemental analysis showed that the majority of the artefacts was produced in a binary bronze alloy (Cu-Sn) (73%), being others produced in copper (15%) and three artefacts in brass (Cu-Zn(-Sn-Pb)). Among each type of alloy there’s certain variability in the composition and in the type of inclusions. The microstructural observations revealed that the majority of the artefacts suffered cycles of thermo-mechanical processing after casting. The diversity of metals/alloys identified was a discovery of great interest, specifically due to the presence of brasses. Their presence can be interpreted as importations related to the circulation of exogenous products during the Proto-history and/or to the deposition of materials during different moments at the site, from the transition of Late Bronze Age/Early Iron Age (Orientalizing period) onwards, as during the Roman period.

The accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend

This project characterizes the accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend. A description of the escrowed dividend model is provided, and a comparison between this model and the benchmark model is realized. It is concluded that options on stocks with either low volatility, low dividend yield, low ex-dividend to maturity ratio or that are deep in or out of the money are reasonably priced with the escrowed dividend model.

Sistema de predição de avarias em máquinas de unidades fabris globalmente dispersas

Tese de Doutoramento Ramo Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas

Accuracy comparison of implant impression techniques: A systematic review

Background Several studies link the seamless fit of implant-supported prosthesis with the accuracy of the dental impression technique obtained during acquisition. In addition, factors such as implant angulation and coping shape contribute to implant misfit. Purpose To identify the most accurate impression technique and factors affecting the impression accuracy. Material and Methods A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature was conducted analyzing articles published between 2009 and 2013. The following search terms were used: implant impression, impression accuracy, and implant misfit. A total of 417 articles was identified, 32 were selected for review. Results All 32 selected studies refer to in vitro studies. Fourteen articles compare open and closed impression technique, 8 advocate the open technique and 6 report similar results. Other 14 articles evaluate splinted and non-splinted techniques; all advocating the splinted technique. Polyether material usage was reported in 9; 6 studies tested vinyl polysiloane and 1 study used irreversible hydrocolloid. Eight studies evaluated different copings designs. Intra-oral optical devices were compared in 4 studies. Conclusions The most accurate results were achieved with two configurations: (1) the optical intra-oral system with powder; and (2) the open technique with splinted squared transfer copings, using polyether as impression material.

Comparação dosimétrica de dois sistemas de planeamento de tratamento em radioterapia conformacional 3D

Dissertação de mestrado em Biofísica e Bionanossistemas