C-reactive protein at 24 hours after hospital admission may have relevant prognostic accuracy in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction: C-reactive protein (CRP) and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) have been used in early risk assessment of patients with AP. Objectives: We evaluated prognostic accuracy of CRP at 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) for in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP individually and with BISAP. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 134 patients with AP from a Portuguese hospital in 2009---2010. Prognostic accuracy assessment used area under receiver---operating characteristic curve (AUC), continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results: Thirteen percent of patients had severe AP, 26% developed pancreatic necrosis, and 7% died during index hospital stay. AUCs for CRP24 and BISAP individually were 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65---0.95) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.59---0.95), respectively. No patients with CRP24 <60 mg/l died (P = 0.027; negative predictive value 100% (95% CI 92.3---100%)). AUC for BISAP plus CRP24 was 0.81 (95% CI 0.65---0.97). Change in NRI nonevents (42.4%; 95% CI, 24.9---59.9%) resulted in positive overall NRI (31.3%; 95% CI, − 36.4% to 98.9%), but IDI nonevents was negligible (0.004; 95% CI, − 0.007 to 0.014). Conclusions: CRP24 revealed good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP; its main role may be the selection of lowest risk patients.

Introdução: A proteína-C reativa (CRP) e o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) têm sido usados na avaliação de risco precoce de doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP). Objectivos: Nós avaliámos o valor prognóstico da CRP às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) na mortalidade intrahospitalar (IM) na AP, individualmente e com o BISAP. Materiais e Métodos: Este estudo coorte retrospetivo incluiu 134 doentes com AP de um hos- pital português em 2009---2010. A acuidade prognóstica foi avaliada usando a área debaixo da receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), o continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), e o integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Resultados: Treze por cento dos doentes tiveram AP grave, 26% desenvolveram necrose pan- creática, e 7% morreram durante a hospitalização índice. As AUCs da CRP24 e do BISAP individualmente foram 0,80 (intervalo de confiança (IC) 95%, 0,65---0,95) e 0,77 (IC 95%, 0,59---0,95), respectivamente. Nenhum doente com CRP24 <60 mg/l morreu (P = 0,027; valor predictivo negativo 100% (IC 95%, 92,3---100%)). A AUC para o BISAP mais a CRP24 foi 0,81 (IC 95%, 0,65---0,97). A mudança no NRI-não-eventos (42,4%; IC 95%, 24,9---59,9%) resultou num NRI- total positivo (31,3%; IC 95%, − 36,4 a 98,9%), mas num IDI-não-eventos negligenciável (0,004; IC 95%, − 0,007 a 0,014). Conclusões: A CRP24 revelou um valor prognóstico bom para a mortalidade intrahospitalar na AP; o seu papel principal poderá ser a selecção dos doentes de menor risco.