Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

James W. Carey as critical theorist of the information age

This paper suggests that the thought of the North-American critical theorist James W. Carey provides a relevant perspective on communication and technology. Having as background American social pragmatism and progressive thinkers of the beginning of the 20th century (as Dewey, Mead, Cooley, and Park), Carey built a perspective that brought together the political economy of Harold A. Innis, the social criticism of David Riesman and Charles W. Mills and incorporated Marxist topics such as commodification and sociocultural domination. The main goal of this paper is to explore the connection established by Carey between modern technological communication and what he called the “transmissive model”, a model which not only reduces the symbolic process of communication to instrumentalization and to information delivery, but also politically converges with capitalism as well as power, control and expansionist goals. Conceiving communication as a process that creates symbolic and cultural systems, in which and through which social life takes place, Carey gives equal emphasis to the incorporation processes of communication.If symbolic forms and culture are ways of conditioning action, they are also influenced by technological and economic materializations of symbolic systems, and by other conditioning structures. In Carey’s view, communication is never a disembodied force; rather, it is a set of practices in which co-exist conceptions, techniques and social relations. These practices configure reality or, alternatively, can refute, transform and celebrate it. Exhibiting sensitiveness favourable to the historical understanding of communication, media and information technologies, one of the issues Carey explored most was the history of the telegraph as an harbinger of the Internet, of its problems and contradictions. For Carey, Internet was seen as the contemporary heir of the communications revolution triggered by the prototype of transmission technologies, namely the telegraph in the 19th century. In the telegraph Carey saw the prototype of many subsequent commercial empires based on science and technology, a pioneer model for complex business management; an example of conflict of interest for the control over patents; an inducer of changes both in language and in structures of knowledge; and a promoter of a futurist and utopian thought of information technologies. After a brief approach to Carey’s communication theory, this paper focuses on his seminal essay "Technology and ideology. The case of the telegraph", bearing in mind the prospect of the communication revolution introduced by Internet. We maintain that this essay has seminal relevance for critically studying the information society. Our reading of it highlights the reach, as well as the problems, of an approach which conceives the innovation of the telegraph as a metaphor for all innovations, announcing the modern stage of history and determining to this day the major lines of development in modern communication systems.

Toward a Run-Time Verification Framework for Real-Time Safety-Critical Systems

Presented at SEMINAR "ACTION TEMPS RÉEL:INFRASTRUCTURES ET SERVICES SYSTÉMES". 10, Apr, 2015. Brussels, Belgium.

A utilização de actos complementares de diagnóstico: uma análise económica

Dissertação submetida para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Saúde Pública Especialidade de Economia da Saúde

Exploring the predictive power of Google searches over the US stock market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of poor power quality in solar photovoltaic microgeneration: technical problems and losses of revenue

This paper presents a critical and quantitative analysis of the influence of the Power Quality in grid connected solar photovoltaic microgeneration installations. First are introduced the main regulations and legislation related with the solar photovoltaic microgeneration, in Portugal and Europe. Next are presented Power Quality monitoring results obtained from two residential solar photovoltaic installations located in the north of Portugal, and is explained how the Power Quality events affect the operation of these installations. Afterwards, it is described a methodology to estimate the energy production losses and the impact in the revenue caused by the abnormal operation of the electrical installation. This is done by comparing the amount of energy that was injected into the power grid with the theoretical value of energy that could be injected in normal conditions. The performed analysis shows that Power Quality severally affects the solar photovoltaic installations operation. The losses of revenue in the two monitored installations M1 and M2 are estimated in about 27% and 22%, respectively.

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Listening to the public: enacting power : citizen access, Standing and influence in public participation discourses

Public participation in environmental governance is typically associated with citizen access to power despite many closures and limitations having been identified in participatory processes. This article proposes an analytical framework to analyse discursive practices involved in public consultation processes. Critical Discourse Analysis is used to examine and appraise citizens’ access, standing and influence. We apply that framework to a ‘notice and comment’ process on a hydroelectric power plan in Portugal and show that it was discursively managed to justify the decision of constructing 10 large dams and to reject critical or alternative views. Citizens’ access, standing and influence were constrained through diverse discursive practices which (re)produced very unequal power relationsbetween policy proponents and participating individuals. More generally, the article illustrates the potential of Critical Discourse Analysis to assess voice(s) in policy processes. Focusing on argumentative, interactional and rhetorical levels, and how they are interwoven in public consultation discourses, the proposed framework is conceivably applicable in other studies.

A critical analysis of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

When dealing with sustainability we are concerned with the biophysical as well as the monetary aspects of economic and ecological interactions. This multidimensional approach requires that special attention is given to dimensional issues in relation to curve fitting practice in economics. Unfortunately, many empirical and theoretical studies in economics, as well as in ecological economics, apply dimensional numbers in exponential or logarithmic functions. We show that it is an analytical error to put a dimensional unit x into exponential functions ( a x ) and logarithmic functions ( x a log ). Secondly, we investigate the conditions of data sets under which a particular logarithmic specification is superior to the usual regression specification. This analysis shows that logarithmic specification superiority in terms of least square norm is heavily dependent on the available data set. The last section deals with economists’ “curve fitting fetishism”. We propose that a distinction be made between curve fitting over past observations and the development of a theoretical or empirical law capable of maintaining its fitting power for any future observations. Finally we conclude this paper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

A critical application of securitization theory: overcoming the normative dilemma of writing security

This article addresses the normative dilemma located within the application of `securitization,’ as a method of understanding the social construction of threats and security policies. Securitization as a theoretical and practical undertaking is being increasingly used by scholars and practitioners. This scholarly endeavour wishes to provide those wishing to engage with securitization with an alternative application of this theory; one which is sensitive to and self-reflective of the possible normative consequences of its employment. This article argues that discussing and analyzing securitization processes have normative implications, which is understood here to be the negative securitization of a referent. The negative securitization of a referent is asserted to be carried out through the unchallenged analysis of securitization processes which have emerged through relations of exclusion and power. It then offers a critical understanding and application of securitization studies as a way of overcoming the identified normative dilemma. First, it examines how the Copenhagen School’s formation of securitization theory gives rise to a normative dilemma, which is situated in the performative and symbolic power of security as a political invocation and theoretical concept. Second, it evaluates previous attempts to overcome the normative dilemma of securitization studies, outlining the obstacles that each individual proposal faces. Third, this article argues that the normative dilemma of applying securitization can be avoided by firstly, deconstructing the institutional power of security actors and dominant security subjectivities and secondly, by addressing countering or alternative approaches to security and incorporating different security subjectivities. Examples of the securitization of international terrorism and immigration are prominent throughout.

Power laws and scaling of rain events and dry spells in the Catalonia region

We analyze the statistics of rain-event sizes, rain-event durations, and dry-spell durations in a network of 20 rain gauges scattered in an area situated close to the NW Mediterranean coast. Power-law distributions emerge clearly for the dryspell durations, with an exponent around 1.50 ± 0.05, although for event sizes and durations the power-law ranges are rather limited, in some cases. Deviations from power-law behavior are attributed to finite-size effects. A scaling analysis helps to elucidate the situation, providing support for the existence of scale invariance in these distributions. It is remarkable that rain data of not very high resolution yield findings in agreement with self-organized critical phenomena.

Tropical cyclones as a critical phenomenon

It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm occurs. This means that no characteristic scale exists for the energy of tropical cyclones, except for the finite-size effects induced by the boundaries of the basins. This has important implications for the physics of tropical cyclones. We discuss up to what point tropical cyclones are related to critical phenomena (in the same way as earthquakes, rainfall, etc.), providing a consistent picture of the energy balance in the system. Moreover, this perspective allows one to visualize more clearly the effects of global warming on tropical-cyclone occurrence.

The effect of patient, provider and financing regulations on the intensity of ambulatory physical therapy episodes : a multilevel analysis based on routinely available data

Background: Many studies have found considerable variations in the resource intensity of physical therapy episodes. Although they have identified several patient-and provider-related factors, few studies have examined their relative explanatory power. We sought to quantify the contribution of patients and providers to these differences and examine how effective Swiss regulations are (nine-session ceiling per prescription and bonus for first treatments). Methods: Our sample consisted of 87,866 first physical therapy episodes performed by 3,365 physiotherapists based on referrals by 6,131 physicians. We modeled the number of visits per episode using a multilevel log linear regression with crossed random effects for physiotherapists and physicians and with fixed effects for cantons. The three-level explanatory variables were patient, physiotherapist and physician characteristics. Results: The median number of sessions was nine (interquartile range 6-13). Physical therapy use increased with age, women, higher health care costs, lower deductibles, surgery and specific conditions. Use rose with the share of nine-session episodes among physiotherapists or physicians, but fell with the share of new treatments. Geographical area had no influence. Most of the variance was explained at the patient level, but the available factors explained only 4% thereof. Physiotherapists and physicians explained only 6% and 5% respectively of the variance, although the available factors explained most of this variance. Regulations were the most powerful factors. Conclusion: Against the backdrop of abundant physical therapy supply, Swiss financial regulations did not restrict utilization. Given that patient-related factors explained most of the variance, this group should be subject to closer scrutiny. Moreover, further research is needed on the determinants of patient demand.

A new survey of the serology of human Trypanosoma cruziinfection in the Rio Negro microregion, Brazilian Amazon: a critical analysis

The serology of human Trypanosoma cruziinfection in the Rio Negro microregion is very complex because of the large numbers of false-positive cases that result from low antibody titres and cross-reactions with other infections. In the present study, we collected 4,880 blood samples on filter paper; of these, indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) was strongly reactive in 221 (4.5%), which were considered to be positive (IIF strongly reactive; high intensity of fluorescence) and weakly reactive in 302 (6.2%), which were considered to be doubtful (IIF weakly reactive; low intensity of fluorescence). The confirmatory test on the serum using at least two of three techniques (IIF, conventional ELISA and recombinant ELISA) on 137 samples that were positive in the screening test only confirmed 33 cases (24.1%). Of the 178 samples that were considered doubtful in the screening test, only 10 (5.6%) were considered to be positive in the confirmatory test. Finally, we recommend that the serological diagnosis of T. cruziinfection in the Amazon region be made using at least two different techniques, for example immunofluorescence and ELISA and confirmed by Western blot analysis when possible.

Host genetic factors in American cutaneous leishmaniasis: a critical appraisal of studies conducted in an endemic area of Brazil

American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is a vector-transmitted infectious disease with an estimated 1.5 million new cases per year. In Brazil, ACL represents a significant public health problem, with approximately 30,000 new reported cases annually, representing an incidence of 18.5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Corte de Pedra is in a region endemic for ACL in the state of Bahia (BA), northeastern Brazil, with 500-1,300 patients treated annually. Over the last decade, population and family-based candidate gene studies were conducted in Corte de Pedra, founded on previous knowledge from studies on mice and humans. Notwithstanding limitations related to sample size and power, these studies contribute important genetic biomarkers that identify novel pathways of disease pathogenesis and possible new therapeutic targets. The present paper is a narrative review about ACL immunogenetics in BA, highlighting in particular the interacting roles of the wound healing gene FLI1 with interleukin-6 and genes SMAD2 and SMAD3 of the transforming growth factor beta signalling pathway. This research highlights the need for well-powered genetic and functional studies on Leishmania braziliensis infection as essential to define and validate the role of host genes in determining resistance/susceptibility regarding this disease.