Adaptive learning in models with lagged variables

In this work I study the stability of the dynamics generated by adaptivelearning processes in intertemporal economies with lagged variables. Iprove that determinacy of the steady state is a necessary condition for the convergence of the learning dynamics and I show that the reciprocal is not true characterizing the economies where convergence holds. In the case of existence of cycles I show that there is not, in general, a relationship between determinacy and convergence of the learning process to the cycle. I also analyze the expectational stability of these equilibria.

Does eeasoning enhance learning?

Utilizing the well-known Ultimatum Game, this note presents the following phenomenon. If we start with simple stimulus-response agents,learning through naive reinforcement, and then grant them some introspective capabilities, we get outcomes that are not closer but farther away from the fully introspective game-theoretic approach. The cause of this is the following: there is an asymmetry in the information that agents can deduce from their experience, and this leads to a bias in their learning process.

Diversity and regional inequalities: Assessing the outcomes of the Spanish 'System of Health Care Services'

The consolidation of a universal health system coupled with a process of regionaldevolution characterise the institutional reforms of the National Health System(NHS) in Spain in the last two decades. However, scarce empirical evidence hasbeen reported on the effects of both changes in health inputs, outputs andoutcomes, both at the country and at the regional level. This paper examinesthe empirical evidence on regional diversity, efficiency and inequality ofthese changes in the Spanish NHS using cross-correlation, panel data andexpenditure decomposition analysis. Results suggest that besides significantheterogeneity, once we take into account region-specific needs there is evidenceof efficiency improvements whilst inequalities in inputs and outcomes, althoughmore visible , do not appear to have increased in the last decade. Therefore,the devolution process in the Spanish Health System offers an interesting casefor the experimentation of health reforms related to regional diversity butcompatible with the nature of a public NHS, with no sizeable regionalinequalitiest.

Financial liberalization, bank crises and growth: Assessing the links

This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalization spurs on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with open financial systems and good institutions. The positive effect of financial liberalization is robust to different definitions. While the removal of capital account restrictions is effective by increasing financial depth, equity market liberalization affects growth directly. The empirical analysis is performed through GMM dynamic panel data estimations on a panel of 90 countries observed in the period 1975-1999.

Assessing an intuitive condition for stability under a range of traffic conditions via a generalised Lu-Kumar network

We argue the importance both of developing simple sufficientconditions for the stability of general multiclass queueing networks and also of assessing such conditions under a range of assumptions on the weight of the traffic flowing between service stations. To achieve the former, we review a peak-rate stability condition and extend its range of application and for the latter, we introduce a generalisation of the Lu-Kumar network on which the stability condition may be tested for a range of traffic configurations. The peak-rate condition is close to exact when the between-station traffic is light, but degrades as this traffic increases.

Deciding analytically or trusting your intuition? The advantadges and disadvantadges of analytic and intuitive thought

Recent research has highlighted the notion that people can make judgmentsand choices by means of two systems that are labeled here tacit(or intuitive) and deliberate (or analytic). Whereas most decisionstypically involve both systems, this chapter examines the conditions underwhich each system is liable to be more effective. This aims to illuminatethe age-old issue of whether and when people should trust intuition or analysis. To do this, a framework is presented to understand how thetacit and deliberate systems work in tandem. Distinctions are also madebetween the types of information typically used by both systems as wellas the characteristics of environments that facilitate or hinder accuratelearning by the tacit system. Next, several experiments that havecontrasted intuitive and analytic modes on the same tasks are reviewed.Together, the theoretical framework and experimental evidence leads tospecifying the trade-off that characterizes their relative effectiveness.Tacit system responses can be subject to biases. In making deliberate systemresponses, however, people might not be aware of the correct rule to dealwith the task they are facing and/or make errors in executing it. Whethertacit or deliberate responses are more valid in particular circumstancesrequires assessing this trade-off. In this, the probability of making errorsin deliberate thought is postulated to be a function of the analytical complexityof the task as perceived by the person. Thus the trade-off is one of bias (inimplicit responses) versus analytical complexity (when tasks are handled indeliberate mode). Finally, it is noted that whereas much attention has beenpaid in the past to helping people make decisions in deliberate mode, effortsshould also be directed toward improving ability to make decisions intacit mode since the effectiveness of decisions clearly depends on both. Thistherefore represents an important frontier for research.

Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

Dynamic optimal law enforcement with learning

We incorporate the process of enforcement learning by assuming that the agency's current marginal cost is a decreasing function of its past experience of detecting and convicting. The agency accumulates data and information (on criminals, on opportunities of crime) enhancing the ability to apprehend in the future at a lower marginal cost.We focus on the impact of enforcement learning on optimal stationary compliance rules. In particular, we show that the optimal stationary fine could be less-than-maximal and the optimal stationary probability of detection could be higher-than-otherwise.

Recurrent hyperinflations and learning

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to accountfor the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the lastdecade. We study a standard monetary model where the fullyrational expectations assumption is replaced by a formaldefinition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learningis able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized factsobserved during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced byseveral countries in the 80's. We argue that, despite being asmall departure from rational expectations, quasi-rationallearning does not preclude falsifiability of the model and itdoes not violate reasonable rationality requirements.

Assessing the wellbeing of the Spanish elderly

In this paper we use a variety of data sources, both micro and macro, time series, crosssection, and panel data to provide an empirical evaluation of the current level of economicwellbeing of the Spanish elderly, and of its determinants. We focus, in particular on the role played by the pension system and its generosity in terms of minimum pension supplements and non-contributive pensions. In an IV context, we find that actual Social Security benefits contribute substantially to explain income and consumption poverty levels and trends of low income and consumption percentiles. Thus we offer support to previous evidence for Spain emphasizing the role of minimum benefit policies.

Motivation and content Language Integrated Learning : an impulse for Second Language Teaching

“Estudiantes motivados producen profesores motivados y viceversa” (Lesley Denham)La cita refleja el efecto recíproco que tiene el comportamiento del profesor en el compromiso de los estudiantes a lo largo del año y viceversa. Es sorprendente como, destacando las fortalezas de cada estudiante en lugar de sus debilidades, nunca comparándolos entre ellos sino con su propio rendimiento, puede despertar una motivación intrínseca en el estudiante, y una merecida satisfacción personal para el profesor.Sin embargo, no existen botones motivacionales mágicos que podamos pulsar y hacer que el alumno quiera aprender. Como profesores, tomar la iniciativa será crucial: dar a nuestros estudiantes el espacio suficiente para experimentar, realzar su autonomía, e intuir las respuestas a través de un proceso inductivo. En definitiva, hacerles protagonistas de su proceso de aprendizaje.Incluir AICLE en la clase de inglés es una metodología que nos ayudará a conseguirlo. Los estudiantes asocian AICLE con algo interesante y divertido, diferente a las sesiones teóricas. Como resultado, al utilizar la lengua, lo hacen movidos por sus sentimientos, aprendiendo de forma implícita.“Estudiants motivats produeixen professors motivats i viceversa” (Lesley Denham)La cita reflecteix l'efecte recíproc que té el comportament del professor en el compromís dels estudiants al llarg de l'any i viceversa. És sorprenent com, destacant les fortaleses de cada estudiant en lloc de les seves debilitats, mai comparant-los entre ells sinó amb el seu propi rendiment, pot despertar una motivació intrínseca a l'estudiant, i una merescuda satisfacció personal per al professor.No obstant això, no existeixen botons motivacionals màgics que puguem prémer i fer que l'alumne vulgui aprendre. Com a professors, prendre la iniciativa serà crucial: donar als nostres estudiants l'espai suficient per experimentar, realçar la seva autonomia, i intuir les respostes a través d'un procés inductiu. En definitiva, fer-los protagonistes del seu procés d'aprenentatge.Incloure AICLE en la classe d'anglès és una metodologia que ens ajudarà a aconseguir-ho. Els estudiants consideren AICLE interessant i divertit, diferent a les sessions teòriques. Com a resultat, en utilitzar la llengua, ho fan moguts pels seus sentiments, aprenent de forma implícita.

Student experiences in a course blended learning

Fascination is a project for design students, developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and the University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), which works with two groups of students, one group of participants in Spain and another group in Thailand where, hands-on activities, a range of technologies are used to prepare students for the lessons, through learning activities and content. This research paper presents the test of both a general model and a tool for measuring the participants’ experiences in a course that uses a blended learning methodology, with the aim of collecting empirical evidence to justify the effort of applying this methodology, based on the participants’ satisfaction. The procedure used in the conceptualization of the survey, the generation of topics, the collection of data, and the validation of the scale of various items are described here. The information, provided by the 26 people surveyed about the course and the virtual environment that was used, was analyzed to measure their perceptions and explore possible relations. Finally the conclusions of the research and the future work are presented.

Learning in Digital Media: the legacy of McLuhan and his Impact on Formal Education

This paper describes a bibliographic analysis of the vision of Marshal McLuhan and the vision adopted by diverse current authors regarding the use of new interactive learning technologies. The paper also analyzes the transformation that will have to take place in the formal surroundings of education in order to improve their social function. The main points of view and contributions made by diverse authors are discussed. It is important that all actors involved in the educational process take in consideration these contributions in order to be ready for future changes.

Entornos e-learning como soporte de aprendizaje a la asignatura educación musical en infancia

La música es una asignatura obligatoria dentro de la etapa educativa de primaria. Hemos detectado varios profesores de distintas áreas educativas, entre ellas el área de música, que utilizan plataformas de e-learning y herramientas web como apoyo para enseñar el currículum que marca el “Departament d‟Educació de la Generalitat de Catalunya”. A partir del cuerpo de análisis se ha dibujado el panorama en plataformas de e-learning, analizando las tipologías y usos. A través de la muestra de plataformas de e-learning en educación musical se han detectado cuatro escuelas con plataformas de e-learning en fase avanzada. Se realiza un estudio de caso sobre una de estas plataformas para hacer el análisis de contenidos y validar el formato de entrevista utilizado, esto nos ha servido para crear un modelo que pueda ser utilizado en otros centros con plataforma de e-learning para la asignatura específica de música.

Assessing the environmental impact of water consumption by energy crops grown in Spain

The environmental impact of the water consumption of four typical crop rotations grown in Spain, including energy crops, was analyzed and compared against Spanish agricultural and natural reference situations. The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used for the assessment of the potential environmental impact of blue water (withdrawal from water bodies) and green water (uptake of soil moisture) consumption. The latter has so far been disregarded in LCA. To account for green water, two approaches have been applied: the first accounts for the difference in green water demand of the crops and a reference situation. The second is a green water scarcity index, which measures the fraction of the soil-water plant consumption to the available green water. Our results show that, if the aim is to minimize the environmental impacts of water consumption, the energy crop rotations assessed in this study were most suitable in basins in the northeast of Spain. In contrast, the energy crops grown in basins in the southeast of Spain were associated with the greatest environmental impacts. Further research into the integration of quantitative green water assessment in LCA is crucial in studies of systems with a high dependence on green water resources.