O prêmio pelo risco cambial : uma análise para as principais moedas globais

O comportamento do retorno excedente de investimentos em moeda estrangeira tem desafiado a ciência econômica. Dois aspectos têm sido particularmente intrigantes: (i) o retorno excedente é significativamente diferente de zero e, (ii) a variância desse retorno é bastante elevada. O objetivo esse trabalho é verificar se modelos baseados no CAPM (capital asset pricing model) internacional são capazes de prever os dois fatos mencionados acima. Para tanto, o trabalho começa descrevendo o comportamento do retorno excedente de investimentos em 13 importantes moedas globais sob a ótica de um investidor norte-americano. Em seguida, três diferentes versões do CAPM internacional são desenvolvidas e estimadas. A conclusão geral é que essa classe de modelos não é plenamente capaz de prever o comportamento do retorno excedente realizado. Porém, ressalva-se que diversos aspectos discutidos neste trabalho como custo de transação, impostos, sample problem e learning, podem ter mascarado os resultados obtidos.

Análise empírica da curva de juros real brasileira: uma aplicação prática na tomada de decisão de carteira de renda fixa

Um dos grandes desafios na gestão de uma carteira de renda fixa passa pela estimação da curva de juros dos títulos que a compõe. Sua correta estimação e a identificação dos fatores de risco associados a estes títulos são imprescindíveis para uma boa gestão de uma carteira de renda fixa, assim como para o correto apreçamento dos ativos. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo estimar a curva de juros real da economia brasileira a partir de um conjunto de títulos negociados no mercado. Os títulos em questão são as notas do tesouro nacional série B (NTN-B), que tem sua rentabilidade vinculada à variação da inflação (IPCA), acrescida de juros definidos no momento da compra. Por se tratar de títulos que pagam cupom não se pode observar num primeiro momento sua estrutura a termo, nesse sentido, serão apresentados modelos capazes de extrair a curva “zero cupom” a partir destes títulos e estimar a estrutura a termo da taxa de juros real. Através da análise de componentes principais será possível identificar os principais fatores responsáveis por movimentos na curva estimada e consequentemente no preço do título. Alguns cenários macroeconômicos serão elaborados de forma a estudar o comportamento dos títulos frente a choques nesses fatores (análise de sensibilidade). A elaboração de cenários e a análise das prováveis trajetórias para o preço deste título auxiliarão na gestão de carteiras de títulos de renda fixa.

Educação e "participação" : tutela ou crescimento? Análise dos componentes educativos da proposta de planejamento participativo do PRODEMATA

Esta dissertação tem como objeto de análise a relaçao educativa implícita na proposta de planejamento participativo do "Programa de Desenvolvimento Rural Integrado da Zona da Mata", de Minas Gerais, ali em execuçao desde 1976. Tal tarefa educativa integra uma ação educacional mais ampla cujo objetivo principal é a transferência de tecnologia - alvo que norteia todo o Programa. A adequação e a inovação tecnológica visam o aumento da produtividade por hectare em cultivos de parceiros e pequenos proprietários: agricultores sem terra e que a tem em pouca quantidade. A necessidade da intervenção na economia local surgiu, basicamente, em decorrência deste problema, que chegou a gerar uma certa movimentação desses produtores no início da década de 60. Ao nível da participação popular pretendida, a proposta buscaria dissimular as desigualdades presentes na sociedade local e, ao mesmo tempo, difundir e formar novos hábitos de consumo, de modo a gerar demanda para insumos agrícolas industrializados. Todavia a prática educativa efetivada possibilitou a emergência das ambigüidades e incoerências presentes na Proposta, assim como das contradições que esta buscava encobrir. Para isso, foi fundamental a experiência do pequeno produtor e do parceiro, adquirida na sua prática diária de trabalho, sobretudo se se considerar que ambos são excluídos da escola.

Precificação de derivativos de taxa de juros utilizando o modelo HJM multifatorial com estrutura de volatilidade não paramétrica

Com o objetivo de precificar derivativos de taxas de juros no mercado brasileiro, este trabalho foca na implementação do modelo de Heath, Jarrow e Morton (1992) em sua forma discreta e multifatorial através de uma abordagem numérica, e, que possibilita uma grande flexibilidade na estimativa da taxa forward sob uma estrutura de volatilidade baseada em fatores ortogonais, facilitando assim a simulação de sua evolução por Monte Carlo, como conseqüência da independência destes fatores. A estrutura de volatilidade foi construída de maneira a ser totalmente não paramétrica baseada em vértices sintéticos que foram obtidos por interpolação dos dados históricos de cotações do DI Futuro negociado na BM&FBOVESPA, sendo o período analisado entre 02/01/2003 a 28/12/2012. Para possibilitar esta abordagem foi introduzida uma modificação no modelo HJM desenvolvida por Brace e Musiela (1994).

Análise de componentes arquitetônicos para potencialização da ventilação natural com ênfase em captadores de vento

The building envelope is the principal mean of interaction between indoors and environment, with direct influence on thermal and energy performance of the building. By intervening in the envelope, with the proposal of specific architectural elements, it is possible to promote the use of passive strategies of conditioning, such as natural ventilation. The cross ventilation is recommended by the NBR 15220-3 as the bioclimatic main strategy for the hot and humid climate of Natal/RN, offering among other benefits, the thermal comfort of occupants. The analysis tools of natural ventilation, on the other hand, cover a variety of techniques, from the simplified calculation methods to computer fluid dynamics, whose limitations are discussed in several papers, but without detailing the problems encountered. In this sense, the present study aims to evaluate the potential of wind catchers, envelope elements used to increase natural ventilation in the building, through CFD simplified simulation. Moreover, it seeks to quantify the limitations encountered during the analysis. For this, the procedure adopted to evaluate the elements implementation and efficiency was the CFD simulation, abbreviation for Computer Fluid Dynamics, with the software DesignBuilder CFD. It was defined a base case, where wind catchers were added with various settings, to compare them with each other and appreciate the differences in flows and air speeds encountered. Initially there has been done sensitivity tests for familiarization with the software and observe simulation patterns, mapping the settings used and simulation time for each case simulated. The results show the limitations encountered during the simulation process, as well as an overview of the efficiency and potential of wind catchers, with the increase of ventilation with the use of catchers, differences in air flow patterns and significant increase in air speeds indoors, besides changes found due to different element geometries. It is considered that the software used can help designers during preliminary analysis in the early stages of design

Diagnóstico ecotoxicológico dos efluentes lançados no complexo estuarino do Jundiaí/Potengi, Natal/RN

Untreated effluents that reach surface water affect the aquatic life and humans. This study aimed to evaluate the wastewater s toxicity (municipal, industrial and shrimp pond effluents) released in the Estuarine Complex of Jundiaí- Potengi, Natal/RN, through chronic quantitative e qualitative toxicity tests using the test organism Mysidopsis Juniae, CRUSTACEA, MYSIDACEA (Silva, 1979). For this, a new methodology for viewing chronic effects on organisms of M. juniae was used (only renewal), based on another existing methodology to another testorganism very similar to M. Juniae, the M. Bahia (daily renewal).Toxicity tests 7 days duration were used for detecting effects on the survival and fecundity in M. juniae. Lethal Concentration 50% (LC50%) was determined by the Trimmed Spearman-Karber; Inhibition Concentration 50% (IC50%) in fecundity was determined by Linear Interpolation. ANOVA (One Way) tests (p = 0.05) were used to determinate the No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) and Low Observed Effect Concentration (LOEC). Effluents flows were measured and the toxic load of the effluents was estimated. Multivariate analysis - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Correspondence Analysis (CA) - identified the physic-chemical parameters better explain the patterns of toxicity found in survival and fecundity of M. juniae. We verified the feasibility of applying the only renewal system in chronic tests with M. Juniae. Most efluentes proved toxic on the survival and fecundity of M. Juniae, except for some shrimp pond effluents. The most toxic effluent was ETE Lagoa Aerada (LC50, 6.24%; IC50, 4.82%), ETE Quintas (LC50, 5.85%), Giselda Trigueiro Hospital (LC50, 2.05%), CLAN (LC50, 2.14%) and COTEMINAS (LC50, IC50 and 38.51%, 6.94%). The greatest toxic load was originated from ETE inefficient high flow effluents, textile effluents and CLAN. The organic load was related to the toxic effects of wastewater and hospital effluents in survival of M. Juniae, as well as heavy metals, total residual chlorine and phenols. In industrial effluents was found relationship between toxicity and organic load, phenols, oils and greases and benzene. The effects on fertility were related, in turn, with chlorine and heavy metals. Toxicity tests using other organisms of different trophic levels, as well as analysis of sediment toxicity are recommended to confirm the patterns found with M. Juniae. However, the results indicate the necessity for implementation and improvement of sewage treatment systems affluent to the Potengi s estuary

Estado nutricional antropométrico, perfil lipídico e consumo alimentar como fatores de risco para doença cardiovascular em adolescentes

The dyslipidemia and excess weight in adolescents, when combined, suggest a progression of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Besides these, the dietary habits and lifestyle have also been considered unsuitable impacting the development of chronic diseases. The study objectives were: (1) estimate the prevalence of lipid profile and correlate with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist / height ratio (WHR) in adolescents, considering the maturation sexual, (2) know the sources of variance in the diet and the number of days needed to estimate the usual diet of adolescents and (3) describe the dietary patterns and lifestyle of adolescents, family history of CVD and age correlates them with the patterns of risk for CVD, adjusted for sexual maturation. A cross-sectional study was performed with 432 adolescents, aged 10-19 years from public schools of the Natal city, Brazil. The dyslipidemias were evaluated considering the lipid profile, the index of I Castelli (TC / HDL) and II (LDL / HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol. Anthropometric indicators were BMI, WC and WHR. The intake of energy, nutrients including fiber, fatty acids and cholesterol was estimated from two 24-hour recalls (24HR). The variables of lipid profile, anthropometric and clinical data were used in the models of Pearson correlation and linear regression, considering the sexual maturation. The variance ratio of the diet was calculated from the component-person variance, determined by analysis of variance (ANOVA). The definition of the number of days to estimate the usual intake of each nutrient was obtained by taking the hypothetical correlation (r) ≥ 0.9, between nutrient intake and the true observed. We used the principal component analysis as a method of extracting factors that 129 accounted for the dependent variables and known cardiovascular risk obtained from the lipid profile, the index for Castelli I and II, non-HDL cholesterol, BMI, and WC the WHR. Dietary patterns and lifestyle were obtained from the independent variables, based on nutrients consumed and physical activity weekly. In the study of principal component analysis (PCA) was investigated associations between the patterns of cardiovascular risk factors in dietary patterns and lifestyle, age and positive family history of CVD, through bivariate and multiple logistic regression adjusted for sexual maturation. The low HDL-C dyslipidemia was most prevalent (50.5%) for adolescents. Significant correlations were observed between hypercholesterolemia and positive family history of CVD (r = 0.19, p <0.01) and hypertriglyceridemia with BMI (r = 0.30, p <0.01), with the CC (r = 0.32, p <0.01) and WHR (r = 0.33, p <0.01). The linear model constructed with sexual maturation, age and BMI explained about 1 to 10.4% of the variation in the lipid profile. The sources of variance between individuals were greater for all nutrients in both sexes. The reasons for variances were  1 for all nutrients were higher in females. The results suggest that to assess the diet of adolescents with greater precision, 2 days would be enough to R24h consumption of energy, carbohydrates, fiber, saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids. In contrast, 3 days would be recommended for protein, lipid, polyunsaturated fatty acids and cholesterol. Two cardiovascular risk factors as have been extracted in the ACP, referring to the dependent variables: the standard lipid profile (HDL-C and non-HDL cholesterol) and "standard anthropometric index (BMI, WC, WHR) with a power explaining 75% of the variance of the original data. The factors are representative of two independent variables led to dietary patterns, "pattern 130 western diet" and "pattern protein diet", and one on the lifestyle, "pattern energy balance". Together, these patterns provide an explanation power of 67%. Made adjustment for sexual maturation in males remained significant variables: the associations between puberty and be pattern anthropometric indicator (OR = 3.32, CI 1.34 to 8.17%), and between family history of CVD and the pattern lipid profile (OR = 2.62, CI 1.20 to 5.72%). In females adolescents, associations were identified between age after the first stage of puberty with anthropometric pattern (OR = 3.59, CI 1.58 to 8.17%) and lipid profile (OR = 0.33, CI 0.15 to 0.75%). Conclusions: The low HDL-C was the most prevalent dyslipidemia independent of sex and nutritional status of adolescents. Hypercholesterolemia was influenced by family history of CVD and sexual maturation, in turn, hypertriglyceridemia was closely associated with anthropometric indicators. The variance between the diets was greater for all nutrients. This fact reflected in a variance ratio less than 1 and consequently in a lower number of days requerid to estimate the usual diet of adolescents considering gender. The two dietary patterns were extracted and the pattern considered unhealthy lifestyle as healthy. The associations were found between the patterns of CVD risk with age and family history of CVD in the studied adolescents

Cravo-de-defunto como planta atrativa para tripes em cultivo protegido de melão orgânico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Uma implementação da análise de componentes independentes em plataforma de hardware reconfigurável

Blind Source Separation (BSS) refers to the problem of estimate original signals from observed linear mixtures with no knowledge about the sources or the mixing process. Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a technique mainly applied to BSS problem and from the algorithms that implement this technique, FastICA is a high performance iterative algorithm of low computacional cost that uses nongaussianity measures based on high order statistics to estimate the original sources. The great number of applications where ICA has been found useful reects the need of the implementation of this technique in hardware and the natural paralelism of FastICA favors the implementation of this algorithm on digital hardware. This work proposes the implementation of FastICA on a reconfigurable hardware platform for the viability of it's use in blind source separation problems, more specifically in a hardware prototype embedded in a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) board for the monitoring of beds in hospital environments. The implementations will be carried out by Simulink models and it's synthesizing will be done through the DSP Builder software from Altera Corporation.

Projeto e Implementação em Ambiente Foundation Fieldbus de Filtragem Estocástica Baseada em Análise de Componentes Independentes (M175)

This work considers the development of a filtering system composed of an intelligent algorithm, that separates information and noise coming from sensors interconnected by Foundation Fieldbus (FF) network. The algorithm implementation will be made through FF standard function blocks, with on-line training through OPC (OLE for Process Control), and embedded technology in a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) that interacts with the fieldbus devices. The technique ICA (Independent Component Analysis), that explores the possibility of separating mixed signals based on the fact that they are statistically independent, was chosen to this Blind Source Separation (BSS) process. The algorithm and its implementations will be Presented, as well as the results

ANÁLISE DESCRITIVA QUANTITATIVA da AGUARDENTE DE CANA DURANTE O ENVELHECIMENTO em TONEL DE CARVALHO (Quercus alba L.)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Hidrocarbonetos policíclicos aromáticos no meio ambiente: diferenciação de fontes em sedimentos e metabólitos em bile de peixes

Many studies on environmental ecosystems quality related to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been carried out routinely due to their ubiquotus presence worldwide and to their potential toxicity after its biotransformation. PAH may be introduced into the environmet by natural and anthropogenic processes from direct runoff and discharges and indirect atmospheric deposition. Sources of naturally occurring PAHs include natural fires, natural oil seepage and recent biological or diagenetic processes. Anthropogenic sources of PAHs, acute or chronic, are combustion of organic matter (petroleum, coal, wood), waste and releases/spills of petroleum and derivatives (river runoff, sewage outfalls, maritime transport, pipelines). Besides the co-existence of multiples sources of PAH in the environmental samples, these compounds are subject to many processes that lead to geochemical fates (physical-chemical transformation, biodegradation and photo-oxidation), which leads to an alteration of their composition. All these facts make the identification of the hydrocarbons sources, if petrogenic, pyrolytic or natural, a challenge. One of the objectives of this study is to establish tools to identify the origin of hydrocarbons in environmental samples. PAH diagnostic ratios and PAH principal component analysis were tested on a critical area: Guanabara Bay sediments. Guanabara Bay is located in a complex urban area of Rio de Janeiro with a high anthropogenic influence, being an endpoint of chronic pollution from the Greater Rio and it was the scenario of an acute event of oil release in January 2000. It were quantified 38 compounds, parental and alkylated PAH, in 21 sediment samples collected in two surveys: 2000 and 2003. The PAH levels varied from 400 to 58439 ng g-1. Both tested techniques for origin identification of hydrocarbons have shown their applicability, being able to discriminate the PAH sources for the majority of the samples analysed. The bay sediments were separated into two big clusters: sediments with a clear pattern of petrogenic introduction of hydrocarbons (from intertidal area) and sediments with combustion characteristics (from subtidal region). Only a minority of the samples could not display a clear contribution of petrogenic or pyrolytic input. The diagnostic ratios that have exhibited high ability to distinguish combustion- and petroleum-derived PAH inputs for Guanabara Bay sediments were Phenanthrene+Anthracene/(Phenanthrene+Anthracene+C1Phenanthrene); Fluorantene/(Fluorantene+Pyrene); Σ (other 3-6 ring PAHs)/ Σ (5 alkylated PAH series). The PCA results prooved to be a useful tool for PAH source identification in the environment, corroborating the diagnostic indexes. In relation to the temporal evaluation carried out in this study, it was not verified significant changes on the class of predominant source of the samples. This result indicates that the hydrocarbons present in the Guanabara Bay sediments are mainly related to the long-term anthropogenic input and not directly related to acute events such as the oil spill of January 2000. This findings were similar to various international estuarine sites. Finally, this work had a complementary objective of evaluating the level of hydrocarbons exposure of the aquatic organisms of Guanabara Bay. It was a preliminary study in which a quantification of 12 individual biliar metabolites of PAH was performed in four demersal fish representing three different families. The analysed metabolites were 1-hydroxynaphtalene, 2-hidroxinaphtalene, 1hydroxyphenanthrene, 9-hydroxyphenanthrene, 2-hydroxyphenanthrene, 1hydroxypyrene, 3-hidroxibiphenil, 3- hydroxyphenanthrene, 1-hydroxychrysene, 9hydroxyfluorene, 4-hydroxyphenanthrene, 3-hydroxybenz(a)pyrene. The metabolites concentrations were found to be high, ranging from 13 to 177 µg g-1, however they were similar to worldwide regions under high anthropogenic input. Besides the metabolites established by the used protocol, it was possible to verified high concentrations of three other compounds not yet reported in the literature. They were related to pyrolytic PAH contribution to Guanabara Bay aquatic biota: 1-hydroxypyrine and 3-hydroxybenz(a)pyrine isomers

Diferenciação de espécies daninhas aquáticas pela análise multivariada de caracteres estruturais foliares

Algumas espécies de plantas aquáticas têm-se tornado problemáticas em reservatórios hidrelétricos no Brasil, devido a sua grande capacidade de reprodução. O objetivo destes trabalho foi diferenciar Brachiaria mutica, Brachiaria subquadripara, Panicum repens, Eichhornia crassipes, Heteranthera reniformis, Typha ubulata e Enhydra anagallis, utilizando-se 19 caracteres estruturais quantitativos do limbo foliar, que se relacionassem com a penetração e translocação de herbicidas. Amostras do terço médio do limbo foram fixadas em FAA 50, cortadas transversalmente em micrótomo com 8 mm de espessura e coradas com azul-de-toluidina. Foram quantificados (%) os seguintes caracteres estruturais da nervura central (NC) e da região internervural (IN): epidermes adaxial e abaxial, feixe vascular, bainha do feixe vascular, esclerênquima, parênquima e lacunas do aerênquima, além da espessura da folha, do número de estômatos e do número de tricomas nas faces adaxial e abaxial. Os 19 caracteres estruturais foram submetidos à Análise de Agrupamento e Análise de Componentes Principais. Houve a formação de três grupos principais: grupo 1 B. mutica, B. subquadripara e P. repens (Poaceae); grupo 2 E. crassipes e H. reniformis (Pontederiaceae) e E. anagallis (Asteraceae); e grupo 3 apenas T. subulata (Typhaceae). Os caracteres com maior poder discriminatório foram: porcentagem de epiderme adaxial (IN); porcentagem de epiderme abaxial; feixe vascular; bainha do feixe vascular; esclerênquima e lacunas do aerênquima (NC e IN); espessura da folha e número de estômatos das faces adaxial e abaxial. Concluiu-se que os caracteres estruturais quantitativos permitiram diferenciar essas espécies daninhas aquáticas em fase vegetativa.