Development and parameterization of a rain- and fire-driven model for exploring elephant effects in African savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree-grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Retaining a diverse workforce: The impact of gender-focused human resource management

Demography theory suggests that high gender diversity leads to high turnover. As turnover is costly, we tested the following: a main effect prediction derived from demography theory, and a moderating effect prediction derived from the relational framework. Data on 198 publicly listed organizations were collected through a human resources decision maker survey and archival databases. The results indicate that higher gender diversity leads to lower turnover in organizations with many gender-focused policies and practices. Findings suggest that organizations can lower their turnover rates by increasing their gender diversity and by implementing gender-focused policies and practices.

Assistance arrangements and use of services among persons with multiple sclerosis and their caregivers

A large population-based survey of persons with multiple sclerosis (MS) and their caregivers was conducted in Ontario using self-completed mailed questionnaires. The objectives included describing assistance arrangements, needs, and use of and satisfaction with services, and comparing perceptions of persons with MS and their caregivers. Response rates were 83% and 72% for those with MS and caregivers, respectively. Based on 697 respondents with MS whose mean age is 48 years, 70% are female, and 75% are married. While 24% experience no mobility restrictions, the majority require some type of aid or a wheelchair for getting around. Among 345 caregivers, who have been providing care for 9 years on average, the majority are spouses. Caregivers report providing more frequent care than do persons with MS report receiving it, particularly for the following activities of daily living: eating, meal preparation, and help with personal finances. Caregivers also report assistance of longer duration per day than do care recipients with MS. Frequency and duration of assistance are positively associated with increased MS symptom severity and reduced mobility. Generally there is no rural-urban disparity in service provision, utilization or satisfaction, and although there is a wide range of service utilization, satisfaction is consistently high. Respite care is rarely used by caregivers. Use of several services is positively associated with increased severity of MS symptoms and reduced mobility. Assistance arrangements and use of services, each from the point of view of persons with MS and their caregivers, must be taken into account in efforts to prolong home care and to postpone early institutionalization of persons with MS.

Population structure, mortality and growth of Pinna nobilis Linnaeus, 1758 (Mollusca, Bivalvia) at different depths in Moraira bay (Alicante, Western Mediterranean)

An investigation to characterize the causes of Pinna nobilis population structure in Moraira bay (Western Mediterranean) was developed. Individuals of two areas of the same Posidonia meadow, located at different depths (A1, -13 and A2, -6 m), were inventoried, tagged, their positions accurately recorded and monitored from July 1997 to July 2002. On each area, different aspects of population demography were studied (i.e. spatial distribution, size structure, displacement evidences, mortality, growth and shell orientation). A comparison between both groups of individuals was carried out, finding important differences between them. In A1, the individuals were more aggregated and mean and maximum size were higher (A1, 10.3 and A2, 6 individuals/100 m(2); A1, x = 47.2 +/- 9.9; A2, x = 29.8 +/- 7.4 cm, P < 0.001, respectively). In A2, growth rate and mortality were higher, the latter concentrated on the largest individuals, in contrast to A1, where the smallest individuals had the higher mortality rate [A1, L = 56.03(1 - e(-0.17t)); A2, L = 37.59(1 - e(-0.40t)), P < 0.001; mean annual mortality A1: 32 dead individuals out of 135, 23.7% and A2: 16 dead individuals out of 36, 44.4%, and total mortality coefficients (z), z(A1(-30)) = 0.28, z(A1(31-45)) = 0.05, z(A1(46-)) = 0.08; z(A2(-30)) = 0.15, z(A2(31-45)) = 0.25]. A common shell orientation N-S, coincident with the maximum shore exposure, was observed in A2. Spatial distribution in both areas showed not enough evidence to discard a random distribution of the individuals, despite the greater aggregation on the deeper area (A1) (A1, chi(2) = 0.41, df = 3, P > 0.5, A2, chi(2)= 0.98, df = 2 and 0.3 < P < 0.5). The obtained results have demonstrated that the depth-related size segregation usually shown by P. nobilis is mainly caused by differences in mortality and growth among individuals located at different depths, rather than by the active displacement of individuals previously reported in the literature. Furthermore, dwarf individuals are observed in shallower levels and as a consequence, the relationship between size and age are not comparable even among groups of individuals inhabiting the same meadow at different depths. The final causes of the differences on mortality and growth are also discussed.

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.

A systematic approach to biological control agent exploration and prioritisation for prickly acacia (Acacia nilotica ssp. indica)

Agent selection for prickly acacia has been largely dictated by logistics and host specificity. Given that detailed ecological information is available on this species in Australia, we propose that it is possible to select agents based on agent efficacy and desired impact on prickly acacia demography. We propose to use the 'plant genotype' and 'climatic' similarities as filters to identify areas for future agent exploration; and plant response to herbivory and field host range as 'predictive' filters for agent prioritisation. Adopting such a systematic method that incorporates knowledge from plant population ecology and plant-herbivore interactions makes agent selection decisions explicit and allow more rigorous evaluations of agent performance and better understanding of success and failure of agents in weed biological control.

A high-density association screen of 155 ion transport genes for involvement with common migraine

The clinical overlap between monogenic Familial Hemiplegic Migraine (FHM) and common migraine subtypes, and the fact that all three FHM genes are involved in the transport of ions, suggest that ion transport genes may underlie susceptibility to common forms of migraine. To test this leading hypothesis, we examined common variation in 155 ion transport genes using 5257 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a Finnish sample of 841 unrelated migraine with aura cases and 884 unrelated non-migraine controls. The top signals were then tested for replication in four independent migraine case-control samples from the Netherlands, Germany and Australia, totalling 2835 unrelated migraine cases and 2740 unrelated controls. SNPs within 12 genes (KCNB2, KCNQ3, CLIC5, ATP2C2, CACNA1E, CACNB2, KCNE2, KCNK12, KCNK2, KCNS3, SCN5A and SCN9A) with promising nominal association (0.00041 < P < 0.005) in the Finnish sample were selected for replication. Although no variant remained significant after adjusting for multiple testing nor produced consistent evidence for association across all cohorts, a significant epistatic interaction between KCNB2 SNP rs1431656 (chromosome 8q13.3) and CACNB2 SNP rs7076100 (chromosome 10p12.33) (pointwise P = 0.00002; global P = 0.02) was observed in the Finnish case-control sample. We conclude that common variants of moderate effect size in ion transport genes do not play a major role in susceptibility to common migraine within these European populations, although there is some evidence for epistatic interaction between potassium and calcium channel genes, KCNB2 and CACNB2. Multiple rare variants or trans-regulatory elements of these genes are not ruled out.

Evaluation of visual stress symptoms in Age-matched Dyslexic, Meares–Irlen syndrome (MIS) and normal adults

AIM To examine the prevalence of dyslexia and Meares–Irlen syndrome (MIS) among female students and determine their level of visual stress in comparison with normal subjects. METHODS A random sample of 450 female medical students of King Saud University Riyadh (age range, 18 - 30 years) responded to a wide range of questions designed to accomplish the aims of this study. The detailed questionnaire consisted of 54 questions with twelve questions enquiring on ocular history and demography of participants while 42 questions were on visual symptoms. Items were categorized into; critical and non-critical questions (CQ and NCQ) and were rated on four point Likert scale. Based on the responses obtained, the subjects were grouped into normal (control), dyslexic with or without MIS (Group 1) and subjects with MIS only (Group 2). Responses were analysed as averages and mean scores were calculated and compared between-groups using one way analysis of variance to evaluate total (TVSS = NCQ + CQ), critical and non-critical visual stress scores. The relationship between categorical variables such as age, handedness and condition were assessed with Chi- Square test. RESULTS The completion rate was 96.8% and majority of the respondents (92%) were normal readers, 2% dyslexic and 6% had MIS. They were age-matched. More than half of the participants had visited an eye care practitioner in the last 2yrs. About 13% were recommended eye exercises and one participant experienced pattern glare. Hand preference was not associated with any condition but Group 1 subjects (3/9, 33%) were significantly more likely to be diagnosed of lazy eye than Group 2 (2/27, 7%) and control (27/414, 5%) subjects. The mean ± SD of TVSS responses were 63 ± 14 but it was 44 ± 9 for CQ and 19 ± 5 for NCQ. Responses from all three variables were normally distributed but the CQ responses were on the average more positive (82%) in Group 2 and less positive (46%) in Group 1 than control. With NCQ, the responses were equally less positive in Group 1 and 2 than control. Group 2 subjects showed significantly higher TVSS (P = 0.002), NCQ (P = 0.006) and CQ (P = 0.008) visual stress scores than control but no difference between Group 1 and control subjects, was observed for all scores (P > 0.05, for all comparisons). CONCLUSION The prevalence of dyslexia and MIS among Saudi female students was 2 and 6%, respectively. Critical questions performed best for assessing visual stress symptoms in dyslexic and MIS subjects. Generally, students with MIS were more sensitive to visual stress than normal students but dyslexics were more likely to present with a lazy eye than MIS and normal readers.

Searching for common threads in threadfins: phylogeography of Australian polynemids in space and time

Proper management of marine fisheries requires an understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of marine populations, which can be obtained from genetic data. While numerous fisheries species have been surveyed for spatial genetic patterns, temporally sampled genetic data is not available for many species. We present a phylogeographic survey of the king threadfin Polydactylus macrochir across its species range in northern Australia and at a temporal scale of 1 and 10 yr. Spatially, the overall AMOVA fixation index was Omega(st) = 0.306 (F-st' = 0.838), p < 0.0001 and isolation by distance was strong and significant (r(2) = 0.45, p < 0.001). Temporally, genetic patterns were stable at a time scale of 10 yr. However, this did not hold true for samples from the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria, where populations showed a greater degree of temporal instability and lacked spatial genetic structure. Temporal but not spatial genetic structure in the Gulf indicates demographic interdependence but also indicates that fishing pressure may be high in this area. Generally, genetic patterns were similar to another co-distributed threadfin species Eleutheronema tetradactylum, which is ecologically similar. However, the historical demography of both species, evaluated herein, differed, with populations of P. macrochir being much younger. The data are consistent with an acute population bottleneck at the last glacio-eustatic low in sea level and indicate that the king threadfin may be sensitive to habitat disturbances.

The Population Consequences of Sex and Conflict

Natural selection generally operates at the level of the individual, or more specifically at the level of the gene. As a result, individual selection does not always favour traits which benefit the population or species as a whole. The spread of an individual gene may even act to the detriment of the organism in which it finds. Thus selection at the level of the individual can affect processes at the level of the organism, group or even at the level of the species. As most behaviours ultimately affect births, deaths and the distribution of individuals, it seems inevitable that behavioural decisions will have an impact on population dynamics and population densities. Behavioural decisions can often involve costs through allocation of energy into behavioural strategies, such as the investment into armaments involved in fighting over resources or increased mortality due to injury or increased predation risk. Similarly, behaviour may act o to benefit the population, in terms of higher survival and increased fecundity. Examples include increased investment through parental care, choosing a mate based on the nuptial gifts they may supply and choosing territories in the face of competition. Investigating the impact of behaviour on population ecology may seem like a trivial task, but it is likely to have important consequences at different levels. For example, antagonistic behaviour may occasionally become so extreme that it increases the risk of extinction, and such extinction risk may have important implications for conservation. As a corollary, any such behaviour may also act as a macroevolutionary force, weeding out populations with traits which, whilst beneficial to the individuals in the short term, ultimately result in population extinction. In this thesis, I examine how behaviours, specifically conflict and competition over a resource and aspects of behaviour involved in sexual selection, can affect population densities, and what the implications are for the evolution and ecology of the populations in question. It is found that both behaviours related to individual conflict and mating strategies can have an effect at the level of the population, but that various factors, such as a feedback between selection and population densities or macroevolution caused by species extinctions, may act to limit the intensity of conflicts that we observe in nature.

Dynamics of Finnish starlings in 1951-2005 : from monitoring to population modelling

Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

Yhteinen kaupunki, eriytyvät kaupunginosat? : Kantaväestön ja maahanmuuttajataustaisten asukkaiden alueellinen eriytyminen ja muuttoliike pääkaupunkiseudulla

This thesis critically examines the patterns and processes of ethnic residential segregation in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA). These phenomena are examined in two main ways: a) between the native and immigrant populations and b) the extent to which different immigrant groups are sharing the same neighbourhoods. The main aim of the study is to test the extent to which the theoretical claims of the selective migration processes can explain the development of ethnic residential segregation in HMA. The data is mixed: it consists of neighbourhood-level statistics related to the migration, demography and housing stock. The selective migration flows are analysed within and between neighbourhood-types, defined on the basis of the percentages of foreign-language-speakers. For contextual purposes, the study also includes fifteen expert interviews who work within the housing sector. Firstly, the results show that, from the early 2000s the patterns of ethnic residential segregation have strengthened while the differences between neighbourhoods have grown. On a more general level the HMA can be divided into two main areas: some eastern and north-eastern neighbourhoods that have experienced the rise of immigrant concentrations and; the northern, north-western and southern parts of the HMA, where the number and percentages of immigrants have remained relatively low. However, within the eastern and north-eastern neighbourhoods there are also discernable internal differences that reflect the income levels of the inhabitants and the type of housing stock. The results also show that, the existing immigrant concentrations are ethnically and culturally mixed and thus qualitatively different from China town and Little-Italy enclaves of single groups of immigrants. Secondly, the results show that there are clear signs of the selective migration processes of the native and immigrant populations which have resulted in the discernable development of ethnic residential segregation. Migration flows of the native population have gravitated towards neighbourhoods, where the percentage of immigrants is below the HMA average. This has resulted in significant migration losses for neighbourhoods with established and developing concentrations of immigrants. Meanwhile, migration of immigrants has been drawn to neighbourhoods where their percentages are above the HMA average. However, the results also point to clear differences in the migration and spatial patterns of different immigrant groups. The spatial selectivity of migration is, thus, more prominent amongst the native population than when compared with immigrants. Overall, the results indicate that the reproduction of the selective migration flows of the native and immigrant populations will largely determine HMA s future development of ethnic residential segregation.

Valikoiva muuttoliike Uudellamaalla

This thesis explores selective migration in Greater Helsinki region from the perspective of counterurbanisation. The aim of the study is to research whether the migration is selective by migrants age, education, income level or the rate of employment and to study any regional patterns formed by the selectivity. In the Helsinki region recent migratory developments have been shifting the areas of net migration gain away from the city of Helsinki to municipalities farther off on the former countryside. There has been discussion about Helsinki s decaying tax revenue base and whether the city s housing policy has contributed to the exodus of wealthier households. The central question of the discussion is one of selective migration: which municipalities succeed in capturing the most favourable migrants and which will lose in the competition. Selective migration means that region s in-migrants and out-migrants significantly differ from each other demographically, socially and economically. Sometimes selectivity is also understood as some individuals greater propensity to migrate than others but the proper notion for this would be differential migration. In Finnish parlance these two concepts have tended to get mixed up. The data of the study covers the total migration of the 34 municipalities of Uusimaa provinces during the years 2001 to 2003. The data was produced by Statistics Finland. Two new methods of representing the selectivity of migration as a whole were constructed during the study. Both methods look at the proportions of favourably selected migrants in regions inward and outward migrant flow. A large share in the inward flow and a small share in the outward flow is good for region s economy and demography. The first method calculates the differences of the proportions of favourably selected four migrant groups and sums the differences up. The other ranks the same proportions between regions giving value 1 to the largest proportion in inward flow and 34 to the smallest, and respectively in outward flow the smallest proportion gets value 1 and the largest 34. The total sum of the ranks or differences in proportions represents region s selectivity of migration. The results show that migration is indeed selective in the Greater Helsinki region. There also seems to be a spatial pattern centred around the Helsinki metropolitan region. The municipalities surrounding the four central communes are generally better of than those farther away. Not only these eight municipalities of the so called capital region benefit from the selective migration, but the favourable structure of migration extends to some of the small municipalities farther away. Some municipalities situated along the main northbound railway line are not coming through as well as other municipalities of the capital region. The selectivity of migration in Greater Helsinki region shows signs of counter-urbanisation. People look for suburban or small-town lifestyle no longer from Espoo or Vantaa, the neighbouring municipalities to Helsinki, but from the municipalities surrounding these two or even farther off. This kind of pattern in selective migration leads to unbalanced development in population structure and tax revenue base in the region. Migration to outskirts of the urban area also leads to urban sprawl and fragmentation of the urban structure: these issues have ecological implications. Selective migration should be studied more. Also the concept itself needs clearer definition and so do the methods to study the selectivity of migration.

La opinión pública en tiempos de medios complejos

Resumen: El artículo analiza cuál es el rol de los medios de comunicación social a la hora de definir la agenda pública. El escenario de conformación de la opinión pública se caracteriza por la complejidad, producto de la fragmentación social y la transición de los medios desde lo analógico hacia lo digital. El trabajo toma como ejemplos dos variables: por un lado, el territorio, que apunta a diferenciar entre los medios del centro del cuerpo social y los periféricos y, por el otro, la variable generacional entre nativos e inmigrantes digitales. Las conclusiones del trabajo pretenden marcar algunos lineamientos que guiarán la conformación de la opinión pública de aquí a futuro y cómo poder influir en la agenda de temas.