Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax.

The Scottish Parliament has the authority to make a balanced-budget expansion or contraction in public expenditure, funded by corresponding local changes in the basic rate of income tax of up to 3p in the pound. This fiscal adjustment is known as the Scottish Variable Rate of income tax, though it has never, as yet, been used. In this paper we attempt to identify the impact on aggregate economic activity in Scotland of implementing these devolved fiscal powers. This is achieved through theoretical analysis and simulation using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland. This analysis generalises the conventional Keynesian model so that negative balanced-budget multipliers values are possible, reflecting a regional “inverted Haavelmo effect”. Key parameters determining the aggregate economic impact are the extent to which the Scottish Government create local amenities valuable to the Scottish population and the extent to which this is incorporated into local wage bargaining.

Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model

This paper considers the instrumental variable regression model when there is uncertainty about the set of instruments, exogeneity restrictions, the validity of identifying restrictions and the set of exogenous regressors. This uncertainty can result in a huge number of models. To avoid statistical problems associated with standard model selection procedures, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows us to do Bayesian model averaging. The algorithm is very exible and can be easily adapted to analyze any of the di¤erent priors that have been proposed in the Bayesian instrumental variables literature. We show how to calculate the probability of any relevant restriction (e.g. the posterior probability that over-identifying restrictions hold) and discuss diagnostic checking using the posterior distribution of discrepancy vectors. We illustrate our methods in a returns-to-schooling application.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

Patrones de tomate: resistencia variable frente al nematodo Meloidogyne

Los patrones de tomate se han propuesto como una alternativa no química al uso del bromuro de metilo. En este estudio se evaluó la respuesta de resistencia de diez patrones de tomate (comerciales y experimentales) a nematodos del género Meloidogyne mediante un ensayo de campo realizado en un invernadero de plástico cuyo suelo se hallaba infestado por Meloidogyne javanica. Al finalizar la campaña agrícola (marzo a julio), siete de los patrones ensayados mostraron altos niveles de resistencia, uno presentó resistencia intermedia y dos resultaron ser susceptibles al nematodo.

Human polymeric IgA is superior to IgG and single-chain Fv of the same monoclonal specificity to inhibit urease activity associated with Helicobacter pylori.

Helicobacter-induced gastritis is considered nowadays an epidemic, the prevalence of which is one of the highest world-wide (70%), with as much as 40% of the population in industrialized countries. Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) antigens (Ag) capable to elicit a protective immune response in animal models have been identified, but these antigens have not been shown to be strongly immunogenic when administered to humans. Due to their stability in the gastric environment and avidity, passive administration of secretory immunoglobulin A (SIgA) antibodies (Ab) targeting protective Ag might be particularly relevant as a substitute or complement to current therapies. To this aim, we have designed expression vectors to convert a scFv polypeptide specific for H. pylori urease subunit A into human IgG, polymeric IgA (IgAp/d) and SIgA. Purified proteins show proper binding characteristics toward both the native and denatured forms of H. pylori urease. The direct comparison between different isotype and molecular forms, but of unique specificity, demonstrates that SIgA and IgAp/d are more efficient in blocking free and H. pylori-associated urease than IgG and scFv. We conclude that the expression system reported herein will represent a valuable tool to produce human SIgA Ab of multiple specificities against H. pylori antigens involved in colonization and persistence.

Acute aphasia after right hemisphere stroke

Abstract Right hemispheric stroke aphasia (RHSA) rarely occurs in right- or left-handed patients with their language representation in right hemisphere (RH). For right-handers, the term crossed aphasia is used. Single cases, multiple cases reports, and reviews suggest more variable anatomo-clinical correlations. We included retrospectively from our stroke data bank 16 patients (right- and left-handed, and ambidextrous) with aphasia after a single first-ever ischemic RH stroke. A control group was composed of 25 successive patients with left hemispheric stroke and aphasia (LHSA). For each patient, we analyzed four modalities of language (spontaneous fluency, naming, repetition, and comprehension) and recorded eventual impairment: (1) on admission (hyperacute) and (2) between day 3 and 14 (acute). Lesion volume and location as measured on computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were transformed into Talairach stereotaxic space. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare impaired/nonimpaired patients. Comprehension and repetition were less frequently impaired after RHSA (respectively, 56% and 50%) than after LHSA (respectively, 84% and 80%, P = 0.05 and 0.04) only at hyperacute phase. Among RHSA, fewer left-handers/ambidextrous than right-handers had comprehension disorders at second evaluation (P = 0.013). Mean infarct size was similar in RHSA and LHSA with less posterior RHSA lesions (caudal to the posterior commissure). Comprehension and repetition impairments were more often associated with anterior lesions in RHSA (Fisher's exact test, P < 0.05). Despite the small size of the cohort, our findings suggest increased atypical anatomo-functional correlations of RH language representation, particularly in non-right-handed patients. Rapport de synthèse : Des aphasies secondaires à un accident vasculaire ischémique cérébral (AVC) hémisphérique droit sont rarement rencontrées chez des patients droitiers ou gauchers avec une représentation du langage dans l'hémisphère droit. Chez les droitiers, on parle d'aphasie croisée. Plusieurs études sur le sujet ont suggéré des corrélations anatomocliniques plus variables. Dans notre étude, nous avons inclus rétrospectivement, à partir d'une base de données de patients avec un AVC, seize patients (droitiers, gauchers et ambidextres) souffrant d'une aphasie suite à un premier et unique AVC ischémique hémisphérique droit. Un groupe contrôle est composé de vingt-cinq patients successifs avec une aphasie suite à un AVC ischémique hémisphérique gauche. Pour chaque patient, nous avons analysé quatre modalités de langage, à savoir la fluence spontanée, la dénomination, la répétition et la compréhension et leur éventuelle atteinte à deux moments distincts : 1) à l'admission (phase hyperaiguë) et 2) entre le 3e et le 14e jour (phase aiguë). Le volume et la localisation de la lésion mesurés, soit sur un CT-scanner soit sur une imagerie par résonance magnétique cérébrale, ont été analysés à l'aide de l'échelle stéréotaxique de Talairach. Des statistiques non paramétriques ont été utilisées pour comparer les patients atteints et non atteints. . La compréhension et la répétition étaient moins souvent atteintes, seulement en phase hyperaiguë, après une aphasie suite à un AVC hémisphérique droit (resp. 56% et 50%) plutôt que gauche (resp. 84 % et 80%, p= 0.05 et 0.04). Parmi les aphasies suite à un AVC ischémique hémisphérique droit, moins de gauchers et d'ambidextres que de droitiers avaient des troubles de la compréhension lors de la seconde évaluation (p=0.013}. La .taille moyenne de la zone infarcie était semblable entre les aphasies droites et gauches, avec moins de lésions postérieures (caudale à la commissure postérieure) lors des aphasies droites. Les troubles de la répétition et de la compréhension étaient plus souvent associés à des lésions antérieures lors d'aphasie droite. (Fischer's exact test, p>0.05). Malgré la petite taille de notre cohorte de patients, ces résultats suggèrent une augmentation des corrélations anatomocliniques atypiques lors d'une représentation du langage dans l'hémisphère droit, surtout chez les patients non droitiers.

Chronic exercise preserves lean muscle mass in masters athletes.

Aging is commonly associated with a loss of muscle mass and strength, resulting in falls, functional decline, and the subjective feeling of weakness. Exercise modulates the morbidities of muscle aging. Most studies, however, have examined muscle-loss changes in sedentary aging adults. This leaves the question of whether the changes that are commonly associated with muscle aging reflect the true physiology of muscle aging or whether they reflect disuse atrophy. This study evaluated whether high levels of chronic exercise prevents the loss of lean muscle mass and strength experienced in sedentary aging adults. A cross-section of 40 high-level recreational athletes ("masters athletes") who were aged 40 to 81 years and trained 4 to 5 times per week underwent tests of health/activity, body composition, quadriceps peak torque (PT), and magnetic resonance imaging of bilateral quadriceps. Mid-thigh muscle area, quadriceps area (QA), subcutaneous adipose tissue, and intramuscular adipose tissue were quantified in magnetic resonance imaging using medical image processing, analysis, and visualization software. One-way analysis of variance was used to examine age group differences. Relationships were evaluated using Spearman correlations. Mid-thigh muscle area (P = 0.31) and lean mass (P = 0.15) did not increase with age and were significantly related to retention of mid-thigh muscle area (P < 0.0001). This occurred despite an increase in total body fat percentage (P = 0.003) with age. Mid-thigh muscle area (P = 0.12), QA (P = 0.17), and quadriceps PT did not decline with age. Specific strength (strength per QA) did not decline significantly with age (P = 0.06). As muscle area increased, PT increased significantly (P = 0.008). There was not a significant relationship between intramuscular adipose tissue (P = 0.71) or lean mass (P = 0.4) and PT. This study contradicts the common observation that muscle mass and strength decline as a function of aging alone. Instead, these declines may signal the effect of chronic disuse rather than muscle aging. Evaluation of masters athletes removes disuse as a confounding variable in the study of lower-extremity function and loss of lean muscle mass. This maintenance of muscle mass and strength may decrease or eliminate the falls, functional decline, and loss of independence that are commonly seen in aging adults.

Distinct expression pattern of microtubule-associated protein-2 in human oligodendrogliomas and glial precursor cells.

Microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2), a protein linked to the neuronal cytoskeleton in the mature central nervous system (CNS), has recently been identified in glial precursors indicating a potential role during glial development. In the present study, we systematically analyzed the expression of MAP2 in a series of 237 human neuroepithelial tumors including paraffin-embedded specimens and tumor tissue microarrays from oligodendrogliomas, mixed gliomas, astrocytomas, glioblastomas, ependymomas, as well as dysembryoplastic neuroepithelial tumors (DNT), and central neurocytomas. In addition, MAP2-immunoreactive precursor cells were studied in the developing human brain. Three monoclonal antibodies generated against MAP2A-B or MAP2A-D isoforms were used. Variable immunoreactivity for MAP2 could be observed in all gliomas with the exception of ependymomas. Oligodendrogliomas exhibited a consistently strong and distinct pattern of expression characterized by perinuclear cytoplasmic staining without significant process labeling. Tumor cells with immunoreactive bi- or multi-polar processes were mostly encountered in astroglial neoplasms, whereas the small cell component in neurocytomas and DNT was not labeled. These features render MAP2 immunoreactivity a helpful diagnostic tool for the distinction of oligodendrogliomas and other neuroepithelial neoplasms. RT-PCR, Western blot analysis, and in situ hybridization confirmed the expression of MAP2A-C (including the novel MAP2+ 13 transcript) in both oligodendrogliomas and astrocytomas. Double fluorescent laser scanning microscopy showed that GFAP and MAP2 labeled different tumor cell populations. In embryonic human brains, MAP2-immunoreactive glial precursor cells were identified within the subventricular or intermediate zones. These precursors exhibit morphology closely resembling the immunolabeled neoplastic cells observed in glial tumors. Our findings demonstrate MAP2 expression in astrocytic and oligodendroglial neoplasms. The distinct pattern of immunoreactivity in oligodendrogliomas may be useful as a diagnostic tool. Since MAP2 expression occurs transiently in migrating immature glial cells, our findings are in line with an assumed origin of diffuse gliomas from glial precursors.

Generation of a recombinant mouse-human chimaeric monoclonal antibody directed against human carcinoembryonic antigen.

A procedure was devised for the identification and specific cloning of functionally rearranged variable region immunoglobulin (Ig) gene segments from genomic DNA of a murine hybridoma cell line which produces a high-affinity monoclonal antibody (MAb) directed against human carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). The cloned, functionally-rearranged murine Ig H-chain and L-chain variable region gene segments were incorporated into plasmid vectors capable of directing the expression of a chimaeric mouse-human antibody molecule with human (gamma 4, kappa) constant region sequences. Expression plasmids were transfected into a mouse myeloma cell line by electroporation and transfectomas secreting functional chimaeric antibody selected. Chimaeric antibody generated by transfectomas was analysed and shown to compete effectively with its murine counterpart for binding to the CEA epitope, and to have an equivalent antigen-binding affinity. This anti-CEA recombinant antibody should find application in in vivo diagnosis by immunoscintigraphy of human colonic carcinoma, and possibly also in therapy of the disease, overcoming some of the difficulties associated with the repeated use of non-human immunoglobulins in human patients.

Variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma levels during valganciclovir treatment for cytomegalovirus disease in D+/R- transplant recipients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Valganciclovir, the oral prodrug of ganciclovir, has been demonstrated equivalent to iv ganciclovir for CMV disease treatment in solid organ transplant recipients. Variability in ganciclovir exposure achieved with valganciclovir could be implicated as a contributing factor for explaining variations in the therapeutic response. This prospective observational study aimed to correlate clinical and cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load response (DNAemia) with ganciclovir plasma concentrations in patients treated with valganciclovir for CMV infection/disease. METHODS: Seven CMV D+/R- transplant recipients (4 kidney, 2 liver and 1 heart) were treated with valganciclovir (initial dose was 900-1800 mg/day for 3-6.5 weeks, followed by 450-900 mg/day for 2-9 weeks). DNAemia was monitored by real time quantitative PCR and ganciclovir plasma concentration was measured at trough (Ctrough) and 3 h after drug administration (C3h) by HPLC. RESULTS: Four patients presented with CMV syndrome, two had CMV tissue-invasive disease after prophylaxis discontinuation, and one liver recipient was treated pre-emptively for asymptomatic rising CMV viral load 5 weeks post-transplantation in the absence of prophylaxis. CMV DNAemia decreased during the first week of treatment in all recipients except in one patient (median decrease: -1.2 log copies/mL, range: -1.8 to 0) despite satisfactory ganciclovir exposure (AUC0-12 = 48 mg.h/L, range for the 7 patients: 40-118 mg.h/L). Viral clearance was obtained in five patients after a median of time of 34 days (range: 28-82 days). Two patients had recurrent CMV disease despite adequate ganciclovir exposure (65 mg.h/L, range: 44-118 mg.h/L). CONCLUSIONS: Valganciclovir treatment for CMV infection/disease in D+/R- transplant recipients can thus result in variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma concentrations, probably correlating inversely with anti-CMV immune responses after primary infection.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Less frequent dosing of erythropoiesis stimulating agents in patients undergoing dialysis: a European multicentre cost study.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate the variable costs involved with the process of delivering erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) in European dialysis practices. METHODS: A conceptual model was developed to classify the processes and sub-processes followed in the pharmacy (ordering from supplier, receiving/storing/delivering ESA to the dialysis unit), dialysis unit (dose determination, ordering, receipt, registration, storage, administration, registration) and waste disposal unit. Time and material costs were recorded. Labour costs were derived from actual local wages while material costs came from the facilities' accounting records. Activities associated with ESA administration were listed and each activity evaluated to determine if dosing frequency affected the amount of resources required. RESULTS: A total of 21 centres in 8 European countries supplied data for 142 patients (mean) per hospital (range 42-648). Patients received various ESA regimens (thrice-weekly, twice-weekly, once-weekly, once every 2 weeks and once-monthly). Administering ESA every 2 weeks, the mean costs per patient per year for each process and the estimates of the percentage reduction in costs obtainable, respectively, were: pharmacy labour (10.1 euro, 39%); dialysis unit labour (66.0 euro, 65%); dialysis unit materials (4.11 euro, 61%) and waste unit materials (0.43 euro, 49%). LIMITATION: Impact on financial costs was not measured. CONCLUSION: ESA administration has quantifiable labour and material costs which are affected by dosing frequency.

Genetic analysis of the breeding system of an invasive subterranean termite, Reticulitermes santonensis, in urban and natural habitats.

Reticulitermes santonensis is a subterranean termite that invades urban areas in France and elsewhere where it causes damage to human-built structures. We investigated the breeding system, colony and population genetic structure, and mode of dispersal of two French populations of R. santonensis. Termite workers were sampled from 43 and 31 collection points, respectively, from a natural population in west-central France (in and around the island of Oleron) and an urban population (Paris). Ten to 20 workers per collection point were genotyped at nine variable microsatellite loci to determine colony identity and to infer colony breeding structure. There was a total of 26 colonies, some of which were spatially expansive, extending up to 320 linear metres. Altogether, the analysis of genotype distribution, F-statistics and relatedness coefficients suggested that all colonies were extended families headed by numerous neotenics (nonwinged precocious reproductives) probably descended from pairs of primary (winged) reproductives. Isolation by distance among collection points within two large colonies from both populations suggested spatially separated reproductive centres with restricted movement of workers and neotenics. There was a moderate level of genetic differentiation (F(ST) = 0.10) between the Oleron and Paris populations, and the number of alleles was significantly higher in Oleron than in Paris, as expected if the Paris population went through bottlenecks when it was introduced from western France. We hypothesize that the diverse and flexible breeding systems found in subterranean termites pre-adapt them to invade new or marginal habitats. Considering that R. santonensis may be an introduced population of the North American species R. flavipes, a breeding system consisting primarily of extended family colonies containing many neotenic reproductives may facilitate human-mediated spread and establishment of R. santonensis in urban areas with harsh climates.