Impact of the Femoral Head Position on Moment Arms in Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Parametric Finite Element Study.

BACKGROUND: Although the importance of accurate femoral reconstruction to achieve a good functional outcome is well documented, quantitative data on the effects of a displacement of the femoral center of rotation on moment arms are scarce. The purpose of this study was to calculate moment arms after nonanatomical femoral reconstruction. METHODS: Finite element models of 15 patients including the pelvis, the femur, and the gluteal muscles were developed. Moment arms were calculated within the native anatomy and compared to distinct displacement of the femoral center of rotation (leg lengthening of 10 mm, loss of femoral offset of 20%, anteversion ±10°, and fixed anteversion at 15°). Calculations were performed within the range of motion observed during a normal gait cycle. RESULTS: Although with all evaluated displacements of the femoral center of rotation, the abductor moment arm remained positive, some fibers initially contributing to extension became antagonists (flexors) and vice versa. A loss of 20% of femoral offset led to an average decrease of 15% of abductor moment. Femoral lengthening and changes in femoral anteversion (±10°, fixed at 15°) led to minimal changes in abductor moment arms (maximum change of 5%). Native femoral anteversion correlated with the changes in moment arms induced by the 5 variations of reconstruction. CONCLUSION: Accurate reconstruction of offset is important to maintaining abductor moment arms, while changes of femoral rotation had minimal effects. Patients with larger native femoral anteversion appear to be more susceptible to femoral head displacements.

Intensity-duration-frequency ratios obtained from annual records and partial duration records in the locality of Pelotas - RS, Brazil

The intensity-duration-frequency occurrence ratio (IDF) is a tool commonly used for precipitation-runoff data transformation, which is established from observations of intense precipitations over a period sufficiently long as to allow the occurrence of extremes at the observation site. This study focused on verifying the existence or absence of new data, in terms of IDF ratio, by using partial duration records produced from data on maximum daily disaggregated rainfall for pre determined durations. The partial duration records considered a base value of 55 mm, totaling 279 values. After the rainfall series were established, their independence and seasonality were assessed. Using the Student's t-test statistics, it was established that no new data, as IDF ratio, emerged from the analysis of the partial duration series with the recommended base value of precipitation, as compared to the historical records.

Detection of the Vulnerable Atherosclerotic Plaque. Pre-Clinical Evaluation of Novel PET Imaging Probes With Experimental Models

Atherosclerosis is a life-long vascular inflammatory disease and the leading cause of death in Finland and in other western societies. The development of atherosclerotic plaques is progressive and they form when lipids begin to accumulate in the vessel wall. This accumulation triggers the migration of inflammatory cells that is a hallmark of vascular inflammation. Often, this plaque will become unstable and form vulnerable plaque which may rupture causing thrombosis and in the worst case, causing myocardial infarction or stroke. Identification of these vulnerable plaques before they rupture could save lives. At present, in the clinic, there exists no appropriated, non-invasive method for their identification. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate novel positron emission tomography (PET) probes for the detection of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques and to characterize, two mouse models of atherosclerosis. These studies were performed by using ex vivo and in vivo imaging modalities. The vulnerability of atherosclerotic plaques was evaluated as expression of active inflammatory cells, namely macrophages. Age and the duration of high-fat diet had a drastic impact on the development of atherosclerotic plaques in mice. In imaging of atherosclerosis, 6-month-old mice, kept on high-fat diet for 4 months, showed matured, metabolically active, atherosclerotic plaques. [18F]FDG and 68Ga were accumulated in the areas representative of vulnerable plaques. However, the slow clearance of 68Ga limits its use for the plaque imaging. The novel synthesized [68Ga]DOTA-RGD and [18F]EF5 tracers demonstrated efficient uptake in plaques as compared to the healthy vessel wall, but the pharmacokinetic properties of these tracers were not optimal in used models. In conclusion, these studies resulted in the identification of new strategies for the assessment of plaque stability and mouse models of atherosclerosis which could be used for plaque imaging. In the used probe panel, [18F]FDG was the best tracer for plaque imaging. However, further studies are warranted to clarify the applicability of [18F]EF5 and [68Ga]DOTA-RGD for imaging of atherosclerosis with other experimental models.

Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

Effect of Sapindus trifoliatus on hyperalgesic in vivo migraine models

Phytotherapies have offered alternative sources of therapy for migraine and gained much importance in prophylactic treatment. Sapindus trifoliatus is a medium-sized deciduous tree growing wild in south India that belongs to the family Sapindaceae. The pericarp is reported for various medicinal properties. A thick aqueous solution of the pericarp is used for the treatment of hemicrania, hysteria or epilepsy in folklore medicine. We have investigated the antihyperalgesic effects of the lyophilized aqueous extract of S. trifoliatus in animal models predictive of experimental migraine models using morphine withdrawal-induced hyperalgesia on the hot-plate test and on 0.3% acetic acid-induced abdominal constrictions in adult male Swiss albino mice. The extract significantly (N = 10, P < 0.05) increased the licking latency in the hot-plate test when administered ip at 10 mg/kg (6.70 ± 0.39 s in saline control vs 18.76 ± 0.96 s in S. trifoliatus-treated animals) and significantly (N = 10, P < 0.001) reduced the abdominal constrictions when administered ip at 2 and 10 mg/kg (40.20 ± 1.36 in saline control vs 30.20 ± 1.33 and 23.00 ± 0.98 for 2 and 10 mg/kg, ip, respectively, in S. trifoliatus-treated animals). Furthermore, when administered ip at 20 and 100 mg/kg, the extract significantly (N = 10, P < 0.05) inhibited the apomorphine-induced climbing behavior in mice (climbing duration 15.75 ± 5.0 min for saline control vs 11.4 ± 1.28 and 3.9 ± 1.71 min for 20 and 100 mg/kg, respectively, in S. trifoliatus-treated animals). In receptor radioligand-binding studies, the extract exhibited affinity towards D2 receptors. The findings suggest that dopamine D2 antagonism could be the mechanism involved in the antihyperalgesic activity of the aqueous extract of S. trifoliatus.

Multibody models for examination of touchdown bearing systems

Increased rotational speed brings many advantages to an electric motor. One of the benefits is that when the desired power is generated at increased rotational speed, the torque demanded from the rotor decreases linearly, and as a consequence, a motor of smaller size can be used. Using a rotor with high rotational speed in a system with mechanical bearings can, however, create undesirable vibrations, and therefore active magnetic bearings (AMBs) are often considered a good option for the main bearings, as the rotor then has no mechanical contact with other parts of the system but levitates on the magnetic forces. On the other hand, such systems can experience overloading or a sudden shutdown of the electrical system, whereupon the magnetic field becomes extinct, and as a result of rotor delevitation, mechanical contact occurs. To manage such nonstandard operations, AMB-systems require mechanical touchdown bearings with an oversized bore diameter. The need for touchdown bearings seems to be one of the barriers preventing greater adoption of AMB technology, because in the event of an uncontrolled touchdown, failure may occur, for example, in the bearing’s cage or balls, or in the rotor. This dissertation consists of two parts: First, touchdown bearing misalignment in the contact event is studied. It is found that misalignment increases the likelihood of a potentially damaging whirling motion of the rotor. A model for analysis of the stresses occurring in the rotor is proposed. In the studies of misalignment and stresses, a flexible rotor using a finite element approach is applied. Simplified models of cageless and caged bearings are used for the description of touchdown bearings. The results indicate that an increase in misalignment can have a direct influence on the bending and shear stresses occurring in the rotor during the contact event. Thus, it was concluded that analysis of stresses arising in the contact event is essential to guarantee appropriate system dimensioning for possible contact events with misaligned touchdown bearings. One of the conclusions drawn from the first part of the study is that knowledge of the forces affecting the balls and cage of the touchdown bearings can enable a more reliable estimation of the service life of the bearing. Therefore, the second part of the dissertation investigates the forces occurring in the cage and balls of touchdown bearings and introduces two detailed models of touchdown bearings in which all bearing parts are modelled as independent bodies. Two multibody-based two-dimensional models of touchdown bearings are introduced for dynamic analysis of the contact event. All parts of the bearings are modelled with geometrical surfaces, and the bodies interact with each other through elastic contact forces. To assist in identification of the forces affecting the balls and cage in the contact event, the first model describes a touchdown bearing without a cage, and the second model describes a touchdown bearing with a cage. The introduced models are compared with the simplified models used in the first part of the dissertation through parametric study. Damages to the rotor, cage and balls are some of the main reasons for failures of AMB-systems. The stresses in the rotor in the contact event are defined in this work. Furthermore, the forces affecting key bodies of the bearings, cage and balls can be studied using the models of touchdown bearings introduced in this dissertation. Knowledge obtained from the introduced models is valuable since it can enable an optimum structure for a rotor and touchdown bearings to be designed.

Semi-Parametric Weak Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-Return Trade-off

Recent work shows that a low correlation between the instruments and the included variables leads to serious inference problems. We extend the local-to-zero analysis of models with weak instruments to models with estimated instruments and regressors and with higher-order dependence between instruments and disturbances. This makes this framework applicable to linear models with expectation variables that are estimated non-parametrically. Two examples of such models are the risk-return trade-off in finance and the impact of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity. Results show that inference based on Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests is more robust to weak instruments than Wald-based inference. Using LM confidence intervals leads us to conclude that no statistically significant risk premium is present in returns on the S&P 500 index, excess holding yields between 6-month and 3-month Treasury bills, or in yen-dollar spot returns.

A Semi-Parametric Factor Model for Interest Rates.

Understanding the dynamics of interest rates and the term structure has important implications for issues as diverse as real economic activity, monetary policy, pricing of interest rate derivative securities and public debt financing. Our paper follows a longstanding tradition of using factor models of interest rates but proposes a semi-parametric procedure to model interest rates.

Essays on numerically efficient inference in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models, and commodity market analysis.

The first two articles build procedures to simulate vector of univariate states and estimate parameters in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space models. We propose state space speci fications that offer more flexibility in modeling dynamic relationship with latent variables. Our procedures are extension of the HESSIAN method of McCausland[2012]. Thus, they use approximation of the posterior density of the vector of states that allow to : simulate directly from the state vector posterior distribution, to simulate the states vector in one bloc and jointly with the vector of parameters, and to not allow data augmentation. These properties allow to build posterior simulators with very high relative numerical efficiency. Generic, they open a new path in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space analysis with limited contribution of the modeler. The third article is an essay in commodity market analysis. Private firms coexist with farmers' cooperatives in commodity markets in subsaharan african countries. The private firms have the biggest market share while some theoretical models predict they disappearance once confronted to farmers cooperatives. Elsewhere, some empirical studies and observations link cooperative incidence in a region with interpersonal trust, and thus to farmers trust toward cooperatives. We propose a model that sustain these empirical facts. A model where the cooperative reputation is a leading factor determining the market equilibrium of a price competition between a cooperative and a private firm

Queueing Models with Vacations and Working Vacations

The thesis entitled “Queueing Models with Vacations and Working Vacations" consists of seven chapters including the introductory chapter. In chapters 2 to 7 we analyze different queueing models highlighting the role played by vacations and working vacations. The duration of vacation is exponentially distributed in all these models and multiple vacation policy is followed.In chapter 2 we discuss an M/M/2 queueing system with heterogeneous servers, one of which is always available while the other goes on vacation in the absence of customers waiting for service. Conditional stochastic decomposition of queue length is derived. An illustrative example is provided to study the effect of the input parameters on the system performance measures. Chapter 3 considers a similar setup as chapter 2. The model is analyzed in essentially the same way as in chapter 2 and a numerical example is provided to bring out the qualitative nature of the model. The MAP is a tractable class of point process which is in general nonrenewal. In spite of its versatility it is highly tractable as well. Phase type distributions are ideally suited for applying matrix analytic methods. In all the remaining chapters we assume the arrival process to be MAP and service process to be phase type. In chapter 4 we consider a MAP/PH/1 queue with working vacations. At a departure epoch, the server finding the system empty, takes a vacation. A customer arriving during a vacation will be served but at a lower rate.Chapter 5 discusses a MAP/PH/1 retrial queueing system with working vacations.In chapter 6 the setup of the model is similar to that of chapter 5. The signicant dierence in this model is that there is a nite buer for arrivals.Chapter 7 considers an MMAP(2)/PH/1 queueing model with a nite retrial group

The persistent colombian conflict bubnational analysis of the duration of violence

The growing empirical literature on the analysis of civil war has recently included the study of conflict duration at the cross-country level. This paper presents, for the first time, a within-country analysis of the determinants of violence duration. I focus on the experience of the Colombian armed conflict. While the conflict has been active for about five decades, local violence ebbs and flows and areas experiencing continuous conflict coexist with places that have been able to resile and where violence is mostly absent. I examine a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level, including scale variables, geographical conditions, economic and social variables, institutions and state presence, inequality, government intervention, and victimization variables. I characterize a few variables robustly correlated with the persistence of localized conflict, both across specifications and using different econometric models of duration analysis.

Oaxaca-Blinder type counterfactual decomposition methods for duration outcomes

Los métodos disponibles para realizar análisis de descomposición que se pueden aplicar cuando los datos son completamente observados, no son válidos cuando la variable de interés es censurada. Esto puede explicar la escasez de este tipo de ejercicios considerando variables de duración, las cuales se observan usualmente bajo censura. Este documento propone un método del tipo Oaxaca-Blinder para descomponer diferencias en la media en el contexto de datos censurados. La validez de dicho método radica en la identificación y estimación de la distribución conjunta de la variable de duración y un conjunto de covariables. Adicionalmente, se propone un método más general que permite descomponer otros funcionales de interés como la mediana o el coeficiente de Gini, el cual se basa en la especificación de la función de distribución condicional de la variable de duración dado un conjunto de covariables. Con el fin de evaluar el desempeño de dichos métodos, se realizan experimentos tipo Monte Carlo. Finalmente, los métodos propuestos son aplicados para analizar las brechas de género en diferentes características de la duración del desempleo en España, tales como la duración media, la probabilidad de ser desempleado de largo plazo y el coeficiente de Gini. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que los factores diferentes a las características observables, tales como capital humano o estructura del hogar, juegan un papel primordial para explicar dichas brechas.

Aspectes metodològics i aplicacions de la modelització del temps de supervivència multivariant mitjançant models mixtes

Els estudis de supervivència s'interessen pel temps que passa des de l'inici de l'estudi (diagnòstic de la malaltia, inici del tractament,...) fins que es produeix l'esdeveniment d'interès (mort, curació, millora,...). No obstant això, moltes vegades aquest esdeveniment s'observa més d'una vegada en un mateix individu durant el període de seguiment (dades de supervivència multivariant). En aquest cas, és necessari utilitzar una metodologia diferent a la utilitzada en l'anàlisi de supervivència estàndard. El principal problema que l'estudi d'aquest tipus de dades comporta és que les observacions poden no ser independents. Fins ara, aquest problema s'ha solucionat de dues maneres diferents en funció de la variable dependent. Si aquesta variable segueix una distribució de la família exponencial s'utilitzen els models lineals generalitzats mixtes (GLMM); i si aquesta variable és el temps, variable amb una distribució de probabilitat no pertanyent a aquesta família, s'utilitza l'anàlisi de supervivència multivariant. El que es pretén en aquesta tesis és unificar aquests dos enfocs, és a dir, utilitzar una variable dependent que sigui el temps amb agrupacions d'individus o d'observacions, a partir d'un GLMM, amb la finalitat d'introduir nous mètodes pel tractament d'aquest tipus de dades.

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.

Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2)

Thirty‐three snowpack models of varying complexity and purpose were evaluated across a wide range of hydrometeorological and forest canopy conditions at five Northern Hemisphere locations, for up to two winter snow seasons. Modeled estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) or depth were compared to observations at forest and open sites at each location. Precipitation phase and duration of above‐freezing air temperatures are shown to be major influences on divergence and convergence of modeled estimates of the subcanopy snowpack. When models are considered collectively at all locations, comparisons with observations show that it is harder to model SWE at forested sites than open sites. There is no universal “best” model for all sites or locations, but comparison of the consistency of individual model performances relative to one another at different sites shows that there is less consistency at forest sites than open sites, and even less consistency between forest and open sites in the same year. A good performance by a model at a forest site is therefore unlikely to mean a good model performance by the same model at an open site (and vice versa). Calibration of models at forest sites provides lower errors than uncalibrated models at three out of four locations. However, benefits of calibration do not translate to subsequent years, and benefits gained by models calibrated for forest snow processes are not translated to open conditions.