Seasonal variation in cardiovascular disease risk factors in a subarctic population : the Tromso Study 1979-2008

Background Seasonal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be due to exposure to seasonal environmental variables like temperature and acute infections or seasonal behavioural patterns in physical activity and diet. Investigating the seasonal pattern of risk factors should help determine the causes of the seasonal pattern in CVD. Few studies have investigated the seasonal variation in risk factors using repeated measurements from the same individual, which is important as individual and population seasonal patterns may differ. Methods The authors investigated the seasonal pattern in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body weight, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. Measurements came from 38 037 participants in the population-based cohort, the Tromsø Study, examined up to eight times from 1979 to 2008. Individual and population seasonal patterns were estimated using a cosinor in a mixed model. Results All risk factors had a highly statistically significant seasonal pattern with a peak time in winter, except for triglycerides (peak in autumn), C reactive protein and fibrinogen (peak in spring). The sizes of the seasonal variations were clinically modest. Conclusions Although the authors found highly statistically significant individual seasonal patterns for all risk factors, the sizes of the changes were modest, probably because this subarctic population is well adapted to a harsh climate. Better protection against seasonal risk factors like cold weather could help reduce the winter excess in CVD observed in milder climates.

Visual sensitivity loss in the central thirty degrees of visual field is associated with diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Aims/hypothesis: Impaired central vision has been shown to predict diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN). Several studies have demonstrated diffuse retinal neurodegenerative changes in diabetic patients prior to retinopathy development, raising the prospect that non-central vision may also be compromised by primary neural damage. We hypothesise that type 2 diabetic patients with DPN exhibit visual sensitivity loss in a distinctive pattern across the visual field, compared with a control group of type 2 diabetic patients without DPN. Methods: Increment light sensitivity was measured by standard perimetry in the central 30 degree of visual field for two age-matched groups of type 2 diabetic patients, with and without neuropathy (n=40/30). Neuropathy status was assigned using the neuropathy disability score. Mean visual sensitivity values were calculated globally, for each quadrant and for three eccentricities (0-10 degree , 11-20 degree and 21-30 degree ). Data were analysed using a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM). Results: Global and quadrant between-group visual sensitivity mean differences were marginally but consistently lower (by about 1 dB) in the neuropathy cohort compared with controls. Between-group mean differences increased from 0.36 to 1.81 dB with increasing eccentricity. GAMM analysis, after adjustment for age, showed these differences to be significant beyond 15 degree eccentricity and monotonically increasing. Retinopathy levels and disease duration were not significant factors within the model (p=0.90). Conclusions/interpretation: Visual sensitivity reduces disproportionately with increasing eccentricity in type 2 diabetic patients with peripheral neuropathy. This sensitivity reduction within the central 30 degree of visual field may be indicative of more consequential loss in the far periphery.

Spatial modelling of population health screening : the role of accessibility in predicting expected patient flows

This paper describes a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) approach for understanding spatial patterns of participation in population health screening, in the presence of multiple screening facilities. The models presented have dual focus, namely the prediction of expected patient flows from regions to services and relative rates of participation by region- service combination, with both outputs having meaningful implications for the monitoring of current service uptake and provision. The novelty of this paper lies with the former focus, and an approach for distributing expected participation by region based on proximity to services is proposed. The modelling of relative rates of participation is achieved through the combination of different random effects, as a means of assigning excess participation to different sources. The methodology is applied to participation data collected from a government-funded mammography program in Brisbane, Australia.

Thai family support (TFS) : working with families of young substance users in primary health care

Living with substance users negatively impacts upon family members in many ways, and distress is common. Despite these deep and wide-ranging impacts, supportive interventions for family members in their own right are rarely available. Thailand has substantial and growing problems with substance use, and there is very little support or family members of drug users, especially in community setting. The Thai Family Support (TFS) program was designed for implementation in primary health care units (PCUs) in Thailand. TFS was based on two approaches with existing empirical support in Western contexts—the 5-step method and CRAFT—with adaptations to a Thai setting that included integration with Buddhist practices. Its aims were to increase well-being of family members, reduce mental distress, improve family relationships between family members, and engage substance users in behaviour change. A small-scale randomised controlled trial on TFS with a Delayed Treatment control was conducted, with assessments at 8 weeks (Post 1) and 20-24 weeks (Post 2). Structured interviews with participants and PCU staff and an examination of five case studies augmented the quantitative results. Mixed Model Analyses were applied to quantitative outcomes, and thematic analysis was used for qualitative data. Thirty-six participants (18 in each of Immediate and Delayed Conditions) were recruited. A significant difference at Baseline between the two conditions was observed on the Thai GHQ-28 and Gender, but it was not possible to statistically control for these effects. There was a significant Time by Condition interaction on the Thai GHQ-28, WHOQOL-BREF-THAI and FAS, reflecting greater improvements in the Immediate condition by Post 1, but with the Delayed condition meeting or exceeding that effect by Post 2. On FES Cohesion and Conflict, there were falls across conditions at Post 2, but only Cohesion also showed a Time by Condition interaction, and that effect was consistent with a delayed impact of treatment. Overall, TFS by PCU staff in the Delayed Condition gave similar results to TFS conducted by the researcher, supporting the viability of its dissemination to standard health services. Qualitative data also confirmed the quantitative results. Most participants reported physiological and psychological improvements even though their substance-using relative did not change their drug use behaviour. After completing TFS, participants reported increased knowledge, group support and sharing feeling, having positive patient-professional relationship, having greater knowledge of substance abuse and social support. In particular, they changed their behaviour towards the substance user, resulting in improvements to family relationships. PCU staff gave similar responses on the efficacy of TFS, and saw it as feasible for routine use, although some implementation challenges were identified. The cultural adaptation and in particular the religious activities, were recognised by participants and PCU staff as an important component of TFS to support psychological health and well-being. Findings from this study showed the impact of substance use on family members and difficulties that they experienced when living with the substance users, resulting distresses and burden that may develop severe mental health disease. Drug use policies should be modified to support family members and response to their needs effectively for early prevention. This study also gave preliminary support for application of the TFS program in rural primary care settings and identified some policies that will be required for it to be disseminated more broadly.

Damage diagnosis for complex steel truss bridges using multi-layer genetic algorithm

Considerate amount of research has proposed optimization-based approaches employing various vibration parameters for structural damage diagnosis. The damage detection by these methods is in fact a result of updating the analytical structural model in line with the current physical model. The feasibility of these approaches has been proven. But most of the verification has been done on simple structures, such as beams or plates. In the application on a complex structure, like steel truss bridges, a traditional optimization process will cost massive computational resources and lengthy convergence. This study presents a multi-layer genetic algorithm (ML-GA) to overcome the problem. Unlike the tedious convergence process in a conventional damage optimization process, in each layer, the proposed algorithm divides the GA’s population into groups with a less number of damage candidates; then, the converged population in each group evolves as an initial population of the next layer, where the groups merge to larger groups. In a damage detection process featuring ML-GA, as parallel computation can be implemented, the optimization performance and computational efficiency can be enhanced. In order to assess the proposed algorithm, the modal strain energy correlation (MSEC) has been considered as the objective function. Several damage scenarios of a complex steel truss bridge’s finite element model have been employed to evaluate the effectiveness and performance of ML-GA, against a conventional GA. In both single- and multiple damage scenarios, the analytical and experimental study shows that the MSEC index has achieved excellent damage indication and efficiency using the proposed ML-GA, whereas the conventional GA only converges at a local solution.

Malnutrition and its impact on cost of hospitalization, length of stay, readmission and 3-year mortality

Background & aims The confounding effect of disease on the outcomes of malnutrition using diagnosis-related groups (DRG) has never been studied in a multidisciplinary setting. This study aims to determine the impact of malnutrition on hospitalisation outcomes, controlling for DRG. Methods Subjective Global Assessment was used to assess the nutritional status of 818 patients within 48 hours of admission. Prospective data were collected on cost of hospitalisation, length of stay (LOS), readmission and mortality up to 3 years post-discharged using National Death Register data. Mixed model analysis and conditional logistic regression matching by DRG were carried out to evaluate the association between nutritional status and outcomes, with the results adjusted for gender, age and race. Results Malnourished patients (29%) had longer hospital stays (6.9±7.3 days vs. 4.6±5.6 days, p<0.001) and were more likely to be readmitted within 15 days (adjusted relative risk = 1.9, 95%CI 1.1–3.2, p=0.025). Within a DRG, the mean difference between actual cost of hospitalisation and the average cost for malnourished patients was greater than well-nourished patients (p=0.014). Mortality was higher in malnourished patients at 1 year (34% vs. 4.1 %), 2 years (42.6% vs. 6.7%) and 3 years (48.5% vs. 9.9%); p<0.001 for all. Overall, malnutrition was a significant predictor of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 4.4, 95%CI 3.3-6.0, p<0.001). Conclusions Malnutrition was evident in up to one third of inpatients and led to poor hospitalisation outcomes, even after matching for DRG. Strategies to prevent and treat malnutrition in the hospital and post-discharge are needed.

The effect of varied test instructions on neuropsychological performance following mild traumatic brain injury : an investigation of ‘diagnosis threat’

Diagnosis threat is a psychosocial factor that has been proposed to contribute to poor outcomes following mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). This threat is thought to impair the cognitive test performance of individuals with mTBI because of negative injury stereotypes. University students (N= 45, 62.2% female) with a history of mTBI were randomly allocated to a diagnosis threat (DT, n=15), reduced threat (DT-reduced, n=15) or neutral (n=15) group. The reduced threat condition invoked a positive stereotype (i.e., that people with mTBI can perform well on cognitive tests). All participants were given neutral instructions before they completed baseline tests of: a) objective cognitive function across a number of domains; b) psychological symptoms; and, c) PCS symptoms, including self-reported cognitive and emotional difficulties. Participants then received either neutral, DT or DT-reduced instructions, before repeating the tests. Results were analyzed using separate mixed model ANOVAs; one for each dependent measure. The only significant result was for the 2 X 3 ANOVA on an objective test of attention/working memory, Digit Span, p<.05, such that the DT-reduced group performed better than the other groups, which were not different from each other. Although not consistent with predictions or earlier DT studies, the absence of group differences on most tests fits with several recent DT findings. The results of this study suggest that it is timely to reconsider the role of DT as a unique contributor to poor mTBI outcome.

Reduced biceps femoris myoelectrical activity influences eccentric knee flexor weakness after repeat sprint running

The aim of this study was to determine whether declines in knee flexor strength following overground repeat sprints were related to changes in hamstrings myoelectrical activity. Seventeen recreationally active males completed maximal isokinetic concentric and eccentric knee flexor strength assessments at 1800.s-1 before and after repeat sprint running. Myoelectrical activity of the biceps femoris (BF) and medial hamstrings (MH) was measured during all isokinetic contractions. Repeated measures mixed model (Fixed factors = time [pre- and post- repeat sprint] and leg [dominant and non-dominant], random factor = participants) design was fitted with the restricted maximal likelihood method. Repeat sprint running resulted in significant declines in eccentric, and concentric, knee flexor strength (eccentric = 25 ± 34 Nm, 15% p<0.001; concentric 11 Nm± 22 Nm, 10% p = 0.001). Eccentric BF myoelectrical activity was significantly reduced (10%; p= 0.033). Concentric BF and all MH myoelectrical activity were not altered. The declines in maximal eccentric torque were associated with the change in eccentric biceps femoris myoelectrical activity (p = 0.013). Following repeat sprint running there were preferential declines in the myoelectrical activity of the BF, which explained declines in eccentric knee flexor strength.

Landscape ecology of the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica

The Lesser Grain Borer is a major pest of stored grain with a global distribution. This project has, for the first time recorded this pest throughout broad spatial areas, tens of kilometres from grain production or storage. Statistical analysis revealed that different factors such as ambient temperature and the availability of food resources affect R. dominica differently between different habitats. This suggests that, contrary to the prevailing view, this pest is not solely dependent on stored wheat and can continue to persist throughout a range of habitats. These findings have important management implications for Australia's wheat industry.

Calibration of the biotrainer pro activity monitor in children

The unique physical and movement characteristics of children necessitate the development of accelerometer equations and cut points that are population specific. The purpose of this study is to develop an ecologically valid cut point for the Biotrainer Pro monitor that reflects a threshold for moderate-intensity physical activity in elementary school children. A sample of 30 children (ages 8-12) wore a Biotrainer monitor while completing a series of 7 movement tasks (calibration phase) and while participating in an organized group activity (cross-validation phase). Videotapes from each session were processed using a computerized direct-observation technique to provide a criterion measure of physical activity. Analyses involved the use of mixed-model regression and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The results indicated that a cut point of 4 counts/min provides the optimal balance between the related needs for sensitivity (accurately detecting activity) and specificity (limiting misclassification of activity as inactivity). Results with the cross-validation data demonstrated that this value yielded the best overall kappa (.58) and a high classification agreement (84%) for activity determination. The specificity of 93% demonstrates that the proposed cut point can accurately detect activity; however, the lower sensitivity value of 61% suggests that some minutes of activity might be incorrectly classified as inactivity. The cut point of 4 counts/min provides an ecologically valid cut point to capture physical activity in children using the Biotrainer Pro activity monitor.

Physical activity correlates in adolescent girls who differ by weight status

Objective This study compared correlates of physical activity (PA) among African-American and white girls of different weight groups to guide future interventions. Research Methods and Procedures Participants were 1015 girls (mean age, 14.6 years; 45% African-American) from 12 high schools in South Carolina who served as control subjects for a school-based intervention. Post-intervention measures obtained at the end of ninth grade were used. PA was measured using the Three-Day PA Recall, and a questionnaire measured social-cognitive and environmental variables thought to mediate PA. Height and weight were measured, and BMI was calculated. Girls were stratified by race and categorized into three groups, based on BMI percentiles for girls from CDC growth charts: normal (BMI < 85th percentile), at risk (BMI, 85th to 94th percentile), and overweight (BMI ≥ 95th percentile). Girls were further divided into active and low-active groups, based on a vigorous PA standard (average of one or more 30-minute blocks per day per 3-day period). Mixed-model ANOVA was used to compare factors among groups, treating school as a random effect Results None of the social-cognitive or environmental variables differed by weight status for African-American or white girls. Perceived behavioral control and sports team participation were significantly higher in girls who were more active, regardless of weight or race group. In general, social-cognitive variables seem to be more related to activity in white girls, whereas environmental factors seem more related to activity in African-American girls. Discussion PA interventions should be tailored to the unique needs of girls based on PA levels and race, rather than on weight status alone.

Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

Morphometric stability of the corneal subbasal nerve plexus in healthy individuals a 3-year longitudinal study using corneal confocal microscopy

Purpose We examined the age-dependent alterations and longitudinal course of subbasal nerve plexus (SNP) morphology in healthy individuals. Methods Laser-scanning corneal confocal microscopy, ocular screening, and health and metabolic assessment were performed on 64 healthy participants at baseline and at 12-month intervals for 3 years. At each annual visit, eight central corneal images of the SNP were selected and analyzed using a fully-automated analysis system to quantify corneal nerve fiber length (CNFL). Two linear mixed model approaches were fitted to examine the relationship between age and CNFL, and the longitudinal changes of CNFL over three years. Results At baseline, mean age was 51.9 ± 14.7 years. The cohort was sex balanced (χ2 = 0.56, P = 0.45). Age (t = 1.6, P = 0.12) and CNFL (t = -0.50, P = 0.62) did not differ between sexes. A total of 52 participants completed the 36-month visit and 49 participants completed all visits. Age had a significant effect on CNFL (F1,33 = 5.67, P = 0.02) with a linear decrease of 0.05 mm/mm2 in CNFL per one year increase in age. No significant change in CNFL was observed over the 36-month period (F1,55 = 0.69, P = 0.41). Conclusions The CNFL showed a stable course over a 36-month period in healthy individuals, although there was a slight linear reduction in CNFL with age. The findings of this study have implications for understanding the time-course of the effect of pathology and surgical or therapeutic interventions on the morphology of the SNP, and serves to confirm the suitability of CNFL as a screening/monitoring marker for peripheral neuropathies.

Natural history of corneal nerve morphology in mild neuropathy associated with type 1 diabetes : Development of a potential measure of diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Purpose To investigate longitudinal changes of subbasal nerve plexus (SNP) morphology and its relationship with conventional measures of neuropathy in individuals with diabetes. Methods A cohort of 147 individuals with type 1 diabetes and 60 age-balanced controls underwent detailed assessment of clinical and metabolic factors, neurologic deficits, quantitative sensory testing, nerve conduction studies and corneal confocal microscopy at baseline and four subsequent annual visits. The SNP parameters included corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD), branch density (CNBD) and fiber length (CNFL) and were quantified using a fully-automated algorithm. Linear mixed models were fitted to examine the changes in corneal nerve parameters over time. Results At baseline, 27% of the participants had mild diabetic neuropathy. All SNP parameters were significantly lower in the neuropathy group compared to controls (P<0.05). Overall, 89% of participants examined at baseline also completed the final visit. There was no clinically significant change to health and metabolic parameters and neuropathy measures from baseline to the final visit. Linear mixed model revealed a significant linear decline of CNFD (annual change rate, -0.9 nerve/mm2, P=0.01) in the neuropathy group compared to controls, which was associated with age (β=-0.06, P=0.04) and duration of diabetes (β=-0.08, P=0.03). In the neuropathy group, absolute changes of CNBD and CNFL showed moderate correlations with peroneal conduction velocity and cold sensation threshold, respectively (rs, 0.38 and 0.40, P<0.05). Conclusion This study demonstrates dynamic small fiber damage at the SNP, thus providing justification for our ongoing efforts to establish corneal nerve morphology as an appropriate adjunct to conventional measures of DPN.

Pituitary volume and early treatment response in drug-naïve first-episode psychosis patients

BACKGROUND: An early response to antipsychotic treatment in patients with psychosis has been associated with a better course and outcome. However, factors that predict treatment response are not well understood. The onset of schizophrenia and related disorders has been associated with increased levels of stress and hyper-activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. This study examined whether pituitary volume at the onset of psychosis may be a potential predictor of early treatment response in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHODS: We investigated the relationship between baseline pituitary volume and symptomatic treatment response over 12 weeks using mixed model analysis in a sample of 42 drug-naïve or early treated FEP patients who participated in a controlled dose-finding study of quetiapine fumarate. Logistic regression was used to examine predictors of treatment response. Pituitary volume was measured from magnetic resonance imaging scans that were obtained upon entry into the trial. RESULTS: Larger pituitary volume was associated with less improvement in overall psychotic symptoms (Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) P=0.031) and positive symptoms (BPRS positive symptom subscale P=0.010). Regardless of gender, patients with a pituitary volume at the 25th percentile (413 mm(3)) were approximately three times more likely to respond to treatment by week 12 than those at the 75th percentile (635 mm(3)) (odds ratio=3.07, CI: 0.90-10.48). CONCLUSION: The association of baseline pituitary volumes with early treatment response highlights the importance of the HPA axis in emerging psychosis. Potential implications for treatment strategies in early psychosis are discussed.