A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

Xylella fastidiosa: An in vivo system to study possible survival strategies within citrus xylem vessels based on global gene expression analysis

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Global dynamics of the Rikitake system

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

GLOBAL DYNAMICS of THE LORENZ SYSTEM WITH INVARIANT ALGEBRAIC SURFACES

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

On the global dynamics of the Rabinovich system

In this paper by using the Poincare compactification in R(3) make a global analysis of the Rabinovich system(x) over dot = hy - v(1)x + yz, (y) over dot = hx - v(2)y - xz, (z) over dot = -v(3)z + xy,with (x, y, z) is an element of R(3) and ( h, v(1), v(2), v(3)) is an element of R(4). We give the complete description of its dynamics on the sphere at infinity. For ten sets of the parameter values the system has either first integrals or invariants. For these ten sets we provide the global phase portrait of the Rabinovich system in the Poincare ball (i.e. in the compactification of R(3) with the sphere S(2) of the infinity). We prove that for convenient values of the parameters the system has two families of singularly degenerate heteroclinic cycles. Then changing slightly the parameters we numerically found a four wings butterfly shaped strange attractor.

GLOBAL DYNAMICS IN THE POINCARE BALL of THE CHEN SYSTEM HAVING INVARIANT ALGEBRAIC SURFACES

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Open regionalism, nation-states and the learning process of integrating into a global trading system

Includes bibliography

Xylella fastidiosa: An in vivo system to study possible survival strategies within citrus xylem vessels based on global gene expression analysis

Xylella fastidiosa inhabits the plant xylem, a nutrient-poor environment, so that mechanisms to sense and respond to adverse environmental conditions are extremely important for bacterial survival in the plant host. Although the complete genome sequences of different Xylella strains have been determined, little is known about stress responses and gene regulation in these organisms. In this work, a DNA microarray was constructed containing 2,600 ORFs identified in the genome sequencing project of Xylella fastidiosa 9a5c strain, and used to check global gene expression differences in the bacteria when it is infecting a symptomatic and a tolerant citrus tree. Different patterns of expression were found in each variety, suggesting that bacteria are responding differentially according to each plant xylem environment. The global gene expression profile was determined and several genes related to bacterial survival in stressed conditions were found to be differentially expressed between varieties, suggesting the involvement of different strategies for adaptation to the environment. The expression pattern of some genes related to the heat shock response, toxin and detoxification processes, adaptation to atypical conditions, repair systems as well as some regulatory genes are discussed in this paper. DNA microarray proved to be a powerful technique for global transcriptome analyses. This is one of the first studies of Xylella fastidiosa gene expression in vivo which helped to increase insight into stress responses and possible bacterial survival mechanisms in the nutrient-poor environment of xylem vessels.

Description of atmospheric conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)

Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malargue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation of virtual tumours in canine kidney using Global Positioning System-like technology

What's known on the subject? And what does the study add? We have previously shown that percutaneous radiofrequency ablation guided by image-fusion technology allows for precise needle placement with real time ultrasound superimposed with pre-loaded imaging, removing the need for real-time CT or MR guidance. Emerging technology also allows real-time tracking of a treatment needle within an organ in a virtually created 3D format. To our knowledge, this is the first study utilising a sophisticated ultrasound-based navigation system that uses both image-fusion and real-time probe-tracking technologies for in-vivo renal ablative intervention.