Assessing future rainfall projections using multiple GCMs and a multi-site stochastic downscaling model

Impact of global warming on daily rainfall is examined using atmospheric variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a stochastic downscaling model. Daily rainfall at eleven raingauges over Malaprabha catchment of India and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data at grid points over the catchment for a continuous time period 1971-2000 (current climate) are used to calibrate the downscaling model. The downscaled rainfall simulations obtained using GCM atmospheric variables corresponding to the IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 emission scenario for the same period are used to validate the results. Following this, future downscaled rainfall projections are constructed and examined for two 20 year time slices viz. 2055 (i.e. 2046-2065) and 2090 (i.e. 2081-2100). The model results show reasonable skill in simulating the rainfall over the study region for the current climate. The downscaled rainfall projections indicate no significant changes in the rainfall regime in this catchment in the future. More specifically, 2% decrease by 2055 and 5% decrease by 2090 in monsoon (HAS) rainfall compared to the current climate (1971-2000) under global warming conditions are noticed. Also, pre-monsoon (JFMAM) and post-monsoon (OND) rainfall is projected to increase respectively, by 2% in 2055 and 6% in 2090 and, 2% in 2055 and 12% in 2090, over the region. On annual basis slight decreases of 1% and 2% are noted for 2055 and 2090, respectively.

Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Forest observational studies in India: Past developments and considerations for the future

Long term forest research sites in India, going by different names including Linear Tree Increment Plots, Linear Increment Plots, Linear Sample Plots and Permanent Preservation Plots, cover diverse plant communities and environmental conditions. Presently, some of these long-term observational studies are functional, some are disturbed and others have almost been lost. The accumulated data will become increasingly important in the context of environmental modelling and climate change, especially if the plots and data can be maintained and/or revived. This contribution presents the history and current state of forest research plots in India, including details of locations and re-measurements. We provide a brief introduction of the National Forest Inventory (NFI), Preservation Plots in natural forests, the 50-ha Mudumalai Forest Dynamics Plot as part of the Centre for Tropical Forest Science and Smithsonian Institution Global Earth Observatories network (CTFS-SIGEO), and research plots established in plantations for tree growth studies and modelling. We also present some methodological details including assessment and analysis for two types of observational studies, the Tree Count Plots (TCP) and Tree Re-measurement Plots (TRP). Arguments are presented in favour of enumeration and analysis methods which are consistent with current approaches in forest ecological research. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance analysis of 1200 kV ceramic disc insulator string under normal and faulted conditions

In the recent years there has been a considerable increase in demand for the electrical power requirement in our country. Presently the transmission system voltages has increased to 765 kV ac and 800kV dc, keeping in view of the future demand experimentation and simulation studies for 1200 kV ac and 1100kV dc transmission are under progress. In the present study an attempt is made to compute the surface potential, electric field across the string of ceramic disc insulators used for 1200kV ac systems. The studies are carried out under normal, polluted conditions and for the case of insulator string containing faulty discs. A computer code using surface charge simulation method (SCSM) is developed for the present analysis. Also a new technique which enhances the surface potential and electric field strength for the existing ceramic disc insulators is presented.

Hydrogen energy future with formic acid: a renewable chemical hydrogen storage system

Formic acid, the simplest carboxylic acid, is found in nature or can be easily synthesized in the laboratory (major by-product of some second generation biorefinery processes); it is also an important chemical due to its myriad applications in pharmaceuticals and industry. In recent years, formic acid has been used as an important fuel either without reformation (in direct formic acid fuel cells, DFAFCs) or with reformation (as a potential chemical hydrogen storage material). Owing to the better efficiency of DFAFCs compared to several other PEMFCs and reversible hydrogen storage systems, formic acid could serve as one of the better fuels for portable devices, vehicles and other energy-related applications in the future. This perspective is focused on recent developments in the use of formic acid as a reversible source for hydrogen storage. Recent developments in this direction will likely give access to a variety of low-cost and highly efficient rechargeable hydrogen fuel cells within the next few years by the use of suitable homogeneous metal complex/heterogeneous metal nanoparticle-based catalysts under ambient reaction conditions. The production of formic acid from atmospheric CO2 (a greenhouse gas) will decrease the CO2 content and may be helpful in reducing global warming.

2007 Annual Report: Hydrologic Conditions in Baseflow Reaches Pursuant to Conditions 14 and 15, Santa Lucia Preserve, Monterey County, California

This report presents the results of the 2007 baseflow condition surveys of the four major streams flowing through Santa Lucia Preserve- Las Garzas, Portrero, San Jose, and San Clemente Creeks. This report has been prepared for the Santa Lucia Conservancy and is primarily intended for the staff of Monterey County and California Department of Fish and Game, in accordance with the baseflow monitoring and reporting requirements outlined in County Conditions 14 and 15. The scope of this report is limited to the presentation and evaluation of existing baseflow conditions as required by Conditions 14 and 15, and is not intended as a comprehensive analysis. However, data presented here are an important part of the long term data set that will be used for future in depth watershed analyses. (Document contains 13 pages & 14 figs)

Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Black Holes, Cosmological Solutions, Future Singularities, and Their Thermodynamical Properties in Modified Gravity Theorie

54 p.

Regulation in Uganda's Lake Victoria fishery: historical and contemporary conditions

This paper sets out to explore how Uganda's lake Victoria fishery has been managed. It explores the management of the fishery during the protectorate period, and argues that the apparent success of regulation during this time may be attributed to the very heightened controls arising from Sleeping Sickness Controls. Once these were removed, entry into the fishery was rapid and uncontrolled, and the resultant impact on fish stocks was quickly felt. With its huge area, considerable shoreline, and innumerable islands, the lake Victoria fisheries service was quickly overwhelmed and disbanded as a result. In the early independence years, the Republic's government focused on developing the fishery, plans thwarted by turmoil of, and following, Idi Amin's reign. More recently, the fishery has prospered from Uganda's entry into the Nile perch fillet export market, which ahs adversely affected stocks. We present and comment on recently collected data that considers fishers' impressions of the status of the fishery, regulations and future managerial possibilities, and comment on these in the light of recent changes to Uganda's fisheries administration

Advancing EDL technologies for future space missions : from ground testing facilities to ablative heatshields

Motivated by recent MSL results where the ablation rate of the PICA heatshield was over-predicted, and staying true to the objectives outlined in the NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities report, this work focuses on advancing EDL technologies for future space missions.

Due to the difficulties in performing flight tests in the hypervelocity regime, a new ground testing facility called the vertical expansion tunnel is proposed. The adverse effects from secondary diaphragm rupture in an expansion tunnel may be reduced or eliminated by orienting the tunnel vertically, matching the test gas pressure and the accelerator gas pressure, and initially separating the test gas from the accelerator gas by density stratification. If some sacrifice of the reservoir conditions can be made, the VET can be utilized in hypervelocity ground testing, without the problems associated with secondary diaphragm rupture.

The performance of different constraints for the Rate-Controlled Constrained-Equilibrium (RCCE) method is investigated in the context of modeling reacting flows characteristic to ground testing facilities, and re-entry conditions. The effectiveness of different constraints are isolated, and new constraints previously unmentioned in the literature are introduced. Three main benefits from the RCCE method were determined: 1) the reduction in number of equations that need to be solved to model a reacting flow; 2) the reduction in stiffness of the system of equations needed to be solved; and 3) the ability to tabulate chemical properties as a function of a constraint once, prior to running a simulation, along with the ability to use the same table for multiple simulations.

Finally, published physical properties of PICA are compiled, and the composition of the pyrolysis gases that form at high temperatures internal to a heatshield is investigated. A necessary link between the composition of the solid resin, and the composition of the pyrolysis gases created is provided. This link, combined with a detailed investigation into a reacting pyrolysis gas mixture, allows a much needed consistent, and thorough description of many of the physical phenomena occurring in a PICA heatshield, and their implications, to be presented.

Through the use of computational fluid mechanics and computational chemistry methods, significant contributions have been made to advancing ground testing facilities, computational methods for reacting flows, and ablation modeling.

Monitoring well-being and changing environmental conditions in coastal communities: development of an assessment method

The intersection of social and environmental forces is complex in coastal communities. The well-being of a coastal community is caught up in the health of its environment, the stability of its economy, the provision of services to its residents, and a multitude of other factors. With this in mind, the project investigators sought to develop an approach that would enable researchers to measure these social and environmental interactions. The concept of well-being proved extremely useful for this purpose. Using the Gulf of Mexico as a regional case study, the research team developed a set of composite indicators to be used for monitoring well-being at the county-level. The indicators selected for the study were: Social Connectedness, Economic Security, Basic Needs, Health, Access to Social Services, Education, Safety, Governance, and Environmental Condition. For each of the 37 sample counties included in the study region, investigators collected and consolidated existing, secondary data representing multiple aspects of objective well-being. To conduct a longitudinal assessment of changing wellbeing and environmental conditions, data were collected for the period of 2000 to 2010. The team focused on the Gulf of Mexico because the development of a baseline of well-being would allow NOAA and other agencies to better understand progress made toward recovery in communities affected by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. However, the broader purpose of the project was to conceptualize and develop an approach that could be adapted to monitor how coastal communities are doing in relation to a variety of ecosystem disruptions and associated interventions across all coastal regions in the U.S. and its Territories. The method and models developed provide substantial insight into the structure and significance of relationships between community well-being and environmental conditions. Further, this project has laid the groundwork for future investigation, providing a clear path forward for integrated monitoring of our nation’s coasts. The research and monitoring capability described in this document will substantially help counties, local organizations, as well state and federal agencies that are striving to improve all facets of community well-being.

Informal fish retailing in rural Egypt: Opportunities to enhance income and work conditions for women and men

Poor rural consumers benefit from Egypt’s aquaculture sector through access to small and medium-sized farmed tilapia sold by informal fish retailers, many of whom are women. In fact, informal fish retail is the main, if not only, segment of the farmed fish value chain where women are found. This report aims to inform current and future strategies to improve conditions in informal fish retail by understanding in more depth the similarities and differences in employment quality and outcomes across different fish retailers. It is particularly focused on identifying whether and how gender inequality influences different dimensions of the work, and whether women and men have similar outcomes and employment conditions. This knowledge will help to design interventions to overcome gender-based constraints, as well as approaches that address shared obstacles and include both women and men in gender-responsive ways to ensure that all of those involved in the sector benefit.

Reports of the ICSF seminar / workshop on the conditions of fishworkers on distant water vessels, Manila, Philippines, 1-3 February 1991

This ICSF Exchange Programme held in Manila is an offshoot of the Bangkok Conference on “Global Fisheries Trends and Future of Fishworkers” held on January 22–27, 1990. One of the issues raised in that conference was about the operation of Taiwanese fishing vessels outside its territorial waters and the impact of such operations on small fishermen from the countries concerned. The presence of a Taiwanese fishworker as well as an NGO supporter contributed to an enlightening discussion as the former shed light on the sad plight of Taiwanese fishworkers who are the victims of such structural problems. This meaningful exchange between groups of fishermen, particularly Taiwanese and Filipinos, resulted in the plan of the Taiwanese delegation to have some Taiwanese fishermen visit the Philippines and immerse in fishing communities.

Viewing the future

As many industrial organizations have learned to apply roadmapping successfully, they have also learned that it is "roadmapping" rather than "the roadmap" that generates value. This two-part special report has focused primarily on product and technology roadmapping in industry. The first part (RTM, March-April 2003, pp. 26-59) examined the workings of the process at Lucent Technologies, Rockwell Automation, the pharmaceutical/biotechnology industry, and United Kingdom-based Domino Printing Sciences. This second part examines roadmapping in the UK, Motorola, General Motors, the services sector, and in cases that demand major investment decisions under conditions of volatility.

MgO expansive cement and concrete in China: Past, present and future

Uniquely, China employs MgO already contained in cement clinker or as an expansive additive to compensate for the thermal shrinkage of mass concrete, particularly dam concrete, with almost 40 years' experience in both research activities and industrial applications. Compensating shrinkage with expansion produced by MgO has been proved to effectively prevent thermal cracking of mass concrete, and reduce the cost of temperature control measures and speed up the construction process. Moreover, the expansion properties of MgO could be designed flexibly, through adjusting its microstructure by changing the calcination conditions (calcining temperature and residence time). The collective knowledge and experience of MgO expansive cement and concrete is worthy of sharing with relevant engineers and researchers globally but dissemination has been hindered as most of the relevant literature is published in Chinese. This paper reviews the history, state-of-the-art progress and future research needs in the field of MgO expansive cement and concrete. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.