Processi markoviani nascosti

We introduce the notation of Markov chains and their properties, and give the definition of ergodic, irreducible and aperiodic chains with correspective examples. Then, the definition of hidden Markov models is given and their characteristics are examined. We formulate three basic problems regarding the hidden Markov models and discuss the solution of two of them - the Viterbi algorithm and the forward-backward algorithm.

Fixed-Width Output Analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a complicated target distribution via simple ergodic averages. A fundamental question in MCMC applications is when should the sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages good estimates of the desired quantities? We consider a method that stops the MCMC sampling the first time the width of a confidence interval based on the ergodic averages is less than a user-specified value. Hence calculating Monte Carlo standard errors is a critical step in assessing the output of the simulation. In particular, we consider the regenerative simulation and batch means methods of estimating the variance of the asymptotic normal distribution. We describe sufficient conditions for the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of both methods and investigate their finite sample properties in a variety of examples.

Exact moment calculations for genetic models with migration, mutation, and drift

Using properties of moment stationarity we develop exact expressions for the mean and covariance of allele frequencies at a single locus for a set of populations subject to drift, mutation, and migration. Some general results can be obtained even for arbitrary mutation and migration matrices, for example: (1) Under quite general conditions, the mean vector depends only on mutation rates, not on migration rates or the number of populations. (2) Allele frequencies covary among all pairs of populations connected by migration. As a result, the drift, mutation, migration process is not ergodic when any finite number of populations is exchanging genes. in addition, we provide closed form expressions for the mean and covariance of allele frequencies in Wright's finite-island model of migration under several simple models of mutation, and we show that the correlation in allele frequencies among populations can be very large for realistic rates of mutation unless an enormous number of populations are exchanging genes. As a result, the traditional diffusion approximation provides a poor approximation of the stationary distribution of allele frequencies among populations. Finally, we discuss some implications of our results for measures of population structure based on Wright's F-statistics.

A derivation of thermodynamic principles

A detailed macroscopic description as in continuum mechanics, and just the concept of microstate,have been used to derive thermodynamics from mechanics. In opposition to statistical physics, the derivation lays emphasis on a definite prescription for macrostates (and non-equilibrium entropy), and uses basic features of the macrostate concept: complementary descriptions, involving either conservative and additive quantities or densities;scale-free character; reference to finite velocities and regions distant in space, thus introducing time indirectly. On the other hand, the derivation keeps the particle substratum (limit of number of particles N taken at fixed densities), and makes no ergodic-type considerations.

Correlation Dimension of Complex Networks

We propose a new measure to characterize the dimension of complex networks based on the ergodic theory of dynamical systems. This measure is derived from the correlation sum of a trajectory generated by a random walker navigating the network, and extends the classical Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm to the context of complex networks. The method is validated with reliable results for both synthetic networks and real-world networks such as the world air-transportation network or urban networks, and provides a computationally fast way for estimating the dimensionality of networks which only relies on the local information provided by the walkers.

The vibrational energy flow transition in organic molecules: Theory meets experiment

Most large dynamical systems are thought to have ergodic dynamics, whereas small systems may not have free interchange of energy between degrees of freedom. This assumption is made in many areas of chemistry and physics, ranging from nuclei to reacting molecules and on to quantum dots. We examine the transition to facile vibrational energy flow in a large set of organic molecules as molecular size is increased. Both analytical and computational results based on local random matrix models describe the transition to unrestricted vibrational energy flow in these molecules. In particular, the models connect the number of states participating in intramolecular energy flow to simple molecular properties such as the molecular size and the distribution of vibrational frequencies. The transition itself is governed by a local anharmonic coupling strength and a local state density. The theoretical results for the transition characteristics compare well with those implied by experimental measurements using IR fluorescence spectroscopy of dilution factors reported by Stewart and McDonald [Stewart, G. M. & McDonald, J. D. (1983) J. Chem. Phys. 78, 3907–3915].

Asymptotic properties of stationary sequences.

Bibliography: p. 146.

Birth-death processes with disaster and instantaneous resurrection

A new structure with the special property that instantaneous resurrection and mass disaster are imposed on an ordinary birth-death process is considered. Under the condition that the underlying birth-death process is exit or bilateral, we are able to give easily checked existence criteria for such Markov processes. A very simple uniqueness criterion is also established. All honest processes are explicitly constructed. Ergodicity properties for these processes are investigated. Surprisingly, it can be proved that all the honest processes are not only recurrent but also ergodic without imposing any extra conditions. Equilibrium distributions are then established. Symmetry and reversibility of such processes are also investigated. Several examples are provided to illustrate our results.

Existence and uniqueness of Q-processes with a given finite μ-invariant measure

Let Q be a stable and conservative Q-matrix over a countable state space S consisting of an irreducible class C and a single absorbing state 0 that is accessible from C. Suppose that Q admits a finite mu-subinvariant measure in on C. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for there to exist a Q-process for which m is mu-invariant on C, as well as a necessary condition for the uniqueness of such a process.

Subgeometric rates of convergence for a class of continuous-time Markov process

Let (Phi(t))(t is an element of R+) be a Harris ergodic continuous-time Markov process on a general state space, with invariant probability measure pi. We investigate the rates of convergence of the transition function P-t(x, (.)) to pi; specifically, we find conditions under which r(t) vertical bar vertical bar P-t (x, (.)) - pi vertical bar vertical bar -> 0 as t -> infinity, for suitable subgeometric rate functions r(t), where vertical bar vertical bar - vertical bar vertical bar denotes the usual total variation norm for a signed measure. We derive sufficient conditions for the convergence to hold, in terms of the existence of suitable points on which the first hitting time moments are bounded. In particular, for stochastically ordered Markov processes, explicit bounds on subgeometric rates of convergence are obtained. These results are illustrated in several examples.

On the existence of uni-instantaneous Q-processes with a given finite mu-invariant measure

Let S be a countable set and let Q = (q(ij), i, j is an element of S) be a conservative q-matrix over S with a single instantaneous state b. Suppose that we are given a real number mu >= 0 and a strictly positive probability measure m = (m(j), j is an element of S) such that Sigma(i is an element of S) m(i)q(ij) = -mu m(j), j 0 b. We prove that there exists a Q-process P(t) = (p(ij) (t), i, j E S) for which m is a mu-invariant measure, that is Sigma(i is an element of s) m(i)p(ij)(t) = e(-mu t)m(j), j is an element of S. We illustrate our results with reference to the Kolmogorov 'K 1' chain and a birth-death process with catastrophes and instantaneous resurrection.

Calculation of the microcanonical temperature for the classical Bose field

The ergodic hypothesis asserts that a classical mechanical system will in time visit every available configuration in phase space. Thus, for an ergodic system, an ensemble average of a thermodynamic quantity can equally well be calculated by a time average over a sufficiently long period of dynamical evolution. In this paper, we describe in detail how to calculate the temperature and chemical potential from the dynamics of a microcanonical classical field, using the particular example of the classical modes of a Bose-condensed gas. The accurate determination of these thermodynamics quantities is essential in measuring the shift of the critical temperature of a Bose gas due to nonperturbative many-body effects.

Symbolic Dynamics in the Free-Fall Equal-Mass Three-Body Problem

The paper has been presented at the 12th International Conference on Applications of Computer Algebra, Varna, Bulgaria, June, 2006