Measuring ageing and the need for longer working lives in the EU. CEPS Working Document No. 417/February 2016 Wednesday, 24 February 2016

This study considers different ways of measuring the ageing of societies and their implications for public policy. The first part characterises the ongoing ageing of the population in the EU28 by relating it to past and future longer-term demographic trends for broad groups of countries. It goes beyond traditional chronological measures to include recently suggested prospective measures of ageing. The second part of the study is concerned with economic dependency ratios; a more relevant measure for summarising the economic challenges related to ageing. Three main findings emerge: first, prospective indicators of ageing reveal the challenge of population ageing to be less onerous than traditional chronological measures would suggest. Their relevance, however, will depend on the degree to which policy changes can respond to the changing age structure of the population. Second, substantial increases in the length of working lives are necessary to maintain current economic dependency ratios. Taking a year-2000 perspective view of the economic challenges of ageing shows that substantial progress has been made. Third, looking towards 2050, education will have limited direct impact on the scale of the ageing challenge.

Sedimentation rates calculated on surface sediment samples from different site of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans (Table 1)

Radiocarbon ages on CaCO3 from deep-sea cores offer constraints on the nature of the CaCO3 dissolution process. The idea is that the toll taken by dissolution on grains within the core top bioturbation zone should be in proportion to their time of residence in this zone. If so, dissolution would shift the mass distribution in favor of younger grains, thereby reducing the mean radiocarbon age for the grain ensemble. We have searched in vain for evidence supporting the existence of such an age reduction. Instead, we find that for water depths of more than 4 km in the tropical Pacific the radiocarbon age increases with the extent of dissolution. We can find no satisfactory steady state explanation and are forced to conclude that this increase must be the result of chemical erosion. The idea is that during the Holocene the rate of dissolution of CaCO3 has exceeded the rain rate of CaCO3. In this circumstance, bioturbation exhumes CaCO3 from the underlying glacial sediment and mixes it with CaCO3 raining from the sea surface.

Digital surface model, hillshade and orthophoto of the world's largest fossil oyster reef, links to GeoTIFFs

The world's largest fossil oyster reef, formed by the giant oyster Crassostrea gryphoides and located in Stetten (north of Vienna, Austria) is studied by Harzhauser et al., 2015, 2016; Djuricic et al., 2016. Digital documentation of the unique geological site is provided by terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) at the millimeter scale. Obtaining meaningful results is not merely a matter of data acquisition with a suitable device; it requires proper planning, data management, and postprocessing. Terrestrial laser scanning technology has a high potential for providing precise 3D mapping that serves as the basis for automatic object detection in different scenarios; however, it faces challenges in the presence of large amounts of data and the irregular geometry of an oyster reef. We provide a detailed description of the techniques and strategy used for data collection and processing in Djuricic et al., 2016. The use of laser scanning provided the ability to measure surface points of 46,840 (estimated) shells. They are up to 60-cm-long oyster specimens, and their surfaces are modeled with a high accuracy of 1 mm. In addition to laser scanning measurements, more than 300 photographs were captured, and an orthophoto mosaic was generated with a ground sampling distance (GSD) of 0.5 mm. This high-resolution 3D information and the photographic texture serve as the basis for ongoing and future geological and paleontological analyses. Moreover, they provide unprecedented documentation for conservation issues at a unique natural heritage site.

Palaeoclimatic implications of the growth history and stable isotope (delta O-18 and delta C-13) geochemistry of a Middle to Late Pleistocene stalagmite from central-western Italy

The age structure and, stable isotope composition of a stalagmite (CC I) from an upland cave in central-western Italy were studied to investigate regional response to global climatic changes. Four growth phases are constrained by 28 thermal ionization and multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry Th-U ages and reveal intermittent deposition through the period between Marine isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and 3 (similar to380 and similar to43 kyr). Most of the growth took place between similar to380 and similar to280 kyr, a period punctuated briefly by a hiatus in deposition through the glacial maximum of MIS 10. Growth was terminated abruptly at 280 kyr just prior to the MIS 8 glacial maximum. With a present-day chamber temperature of 7.5 degreesC, the timing of hiatuses close to these glacial maxima point to freezing conditions at the time. No deposition was recorded through the entirety of MIS 7 and most of MIS 6, whilst two minor growth phases occurred at similar to141-125 and similar to43 kyr. Growth at 141 kyr indicates temperatures >0 degreesC at a time when MIS 6 ice volumes were close to their maximum. High stable carbon isotope (delta(13)C) values (similar to2.8parts per thousand to +3.1parts per thousand) throughout the stalagmite's growth reflect a persistently low input of biogenic CO2, indicating that the steep, barren and alpine-like recharge area of today ha's been in existence for at least the last similar to380 kyr. During MIS 9, the lowest delta(13)C values occur well after maximum interglacial conditions, suggesting a lag in the development of post-glacial soils in this high-altitude karst. The stable oxygen isotope (delta(18)O) trends match the main structural features of the major climate proxy records (SPECMAP, Vostok and Devils Hole), suggesting that the delta(18)O of CC1 has responded to global-scale climate changes, whilst remarkable similarity exists between CC1 delta(18)O and regional sea-surface temperature reconstructions from North Atlantic core ODP980 and southwest Pacific marine core MD97-2120 through the most detailed part of the CC1 record, MIS 9-8. The results suggest that CC1 and other stalagmites from the cave have the potential to capture a long record of regional temperature trends, particularly in regards to the relative severity of Pleistocene glacial stages. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Control of structured populations by harvest

It has long been recognized that demographic structure within a population can significantly affect the likely outcomes of harvest. Many studies have focussed on equilibrium dynamics and maximization of the value of the harvest taken. However, in some cases the management objective is to maintain the population at a abundance that is significantly below the carrying capacity. Achieving such an objective by harvest can be complicated by the presence of significant structure (age or stage) in the target population. in such cases, optimal harvest strategies must account for differences among age- or stage-classes of individuals in their relative contribution to the demography of the population. In addition, structured populations are also characterized by transient non-linear dynamics following perturbation, such that even under an equilibrium harvest, the population may exhibit significant momentum, increasing or decreasing before cessation of growth. Using simple linear time-invariant models, we show that if harvest levels are set dynamically (e.g., annually) then transient effects can be as or more important than equilibrium outcomes. We show that appropriate harvest rates can be complicated by uncertainty about the demographic structure of the population, or limited control over the structure of the harvest taken. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Market-oriented new product development of health promoting foods for the ageing population

Major factors influencing food development and food marketing strategies in global market places at present can be attributable to the changing age structure of the population. The significant shifts in global age structure will inevitably lead to the number of people aged 60 reaching an all-time high of one billion by the year 2020. The rapidly growing population of ageing people globally represents a large, neglected and very much under-developed category within the Food Industry. The primary focus of this study was the integration of knowledge creation techniques at early NPD stages, for the development of market-oriented new health promoting foods for the ageing population. The methodology of this study was centered on an exploratory sequential mixed methods strategy. Stage one of the study involved in-depth semi-structured interviews with 16 Stakeholders to facilitate the need identification stage of the NPD process. The main outputs identified were the need for: the fortification of foods for a preventative nutrition approach, the development of foods that targeted age-related conditions such as cognitive, heart, gut and bone health, the integration of ageing compensatory packaging adaptations and the creation of marketing messages with an active lifestyle message. Stage two consisted of a market-oriented computer assisted NPD technique, a user centered design interaction (UCD) to integrate consumers as co-creators throughout the idea generation stage of the NPD process. The most important product attributes identified in this stage included: products targeted at brain and cognitive health, liquid based beverages, easy to use packaging with environmentally friendly elements, simplistic marketing with a clear focus on health not age and realistic health claims constructed with consumer friendly terminology. Finally, Stage three used an abbreviated means-end chain (MEC) analysis to complete the concept development stage of the NPD process. This stage identified commercial information that could be used by food firms for the development of positioning and communication strategies. Equally, the information generated could be of high strategic importance to governments, policy makers, health professionals and medical professionals. The values and goals listed in this stage included: better overall health, active lifestyle, optimum nutrition and wellbeing feelings. Overall, this research illustrated that knowledge creation techniques can assist firms in the development of market-oriented health promoting foods for the ageing population.

Biologia reprodutiva, crescimento corporal e parâmetros demográficos de Cavia magna em uma ilha estuarina do extremo sul do Brasil

A teoria da história de vida tem como objetivo compreender os fatores que produzem variações na taxa de sobrevivência, tamanho no nascimento, idade de maturação, sazonalidade na reprodução, longevidade, razão sexual da prole. O gênero Cavia pallas 1776 apresenta a maior distribuição dentro da subfamília Cavinae, sendo composto por seis espécies, dentre elas Cavia magna, a qual habita regiões de restinga próximas a estuários ou lagos do norte do Uruguai ao sul do Brasil. Durante esse trabalho avaliamos os padrões da história de vida de uma população de Cavia magna da Ilha dos Marinheiros, RS, Brasil, devido ao fato de se tratar de uma espécie com baixa taxa reprodutiva, distribuição geográfica restrita, e estar exposta a alta pressão de predação. Para isso foi realizado um programa de captura-marcação-recaptura, durante 13 meses no qual foram capturados 129 animais, sendo 63 fêmeas e 66 machos. As longevidades máximas registradas, foram 233 dias para uma fêmea e 321 dias para um macho. Foram encontradas 13 fêmeas grávidas ou lactantes, dentre elas 9 estavam grávidas, sendo que 6 estavam prenhas de 2 filhotes e 3 estavam prenhas de 1 filhote apenas. Vários parâmetros foram testados, para estimar a taxa de sobrevivência e captura ,utilizamos o programa Mark, o método jacknife um modelo probabilístico, que permite heterogeneidade individual nas taxas de captura também foi utilizado. Não houve diferenças significativas no número de machos e fêmeas, a razão sexual foi 1:1. Em relação a estrutura etária, a população foi composta por adultos (82%) e a densidade populacional foi de 30 animais por hectare.

Stout Whiting Fishery Summary : Commercial Quota Setting for 2017

This fishery assessment report describes the commercial stout whiting fishery operation along Australia’s east coast between Sandy Cape and the Queensland-New South Wales border. The fishery is identified by a T4 symbol. This study follows methods applied in (O'Neill & Leigh, 2016a) and extends the results of that study by using the latest data available up to end of March 2016. The fishery statistics reported herein are for fishing years 1991 to 2016. This study analysed stout whiting catch rates from both Queensland and New South Wales (NSW) for all vessels, areas and fishing gears. The 2016 catch rate index from Queensland and NSW waters was 0.86. This means that the 2016 catch rate index was 86% of the mean standardised catch rate. Results showed that there was a stable trend in catch rates from 2012 to 2016, as in the previous study (O'Neill & Leigh, 2016a), with the 2015 and 2014 catch rates 85% of the mean catch rate. The fish-length frequency and age-length-otolith data were translated using two models which showed: • Where patterns of fish age-abundance were estimated from the fish-length frequency and age-length data, there were slightly decreased estimated measures of fish survival at 38% for 2014, compared to fish survival estimates in 2013 at 40%. The 2014 and 2015 estimated age structure was dominated by 1+ and 2+ old fished, with a slightly higher frequency of age 2 - 3 fish for 2015. • Where only the age-length data were used, estimates showed that from 2011 to 2014 the survival index increased. The estimated survival index increased from 35% in 2013 to 64% in 2014, indicating stronger survival of fish as they recruited and aged. Together the stout whiting catch rate and survival indicators showed the recent fishery harvests were sustainable. Since 1997, T4 management (Stout Whiting Fishery) is centred on annual assessments of total allowable commercial catch (TACC). The TACC is assessed before the start of each fishing year using statistical assessment methodologies, namely evaluation of trends in fish catch rates and catch-at-age frequencies measured against management reference points. The TACC has been under-caught in many years. For setting the 2017 T4 stout whiting TACC, the calculations covered a range of settings to account for the variance in the data and provide options for quota change. The overall (averaged) results suggested: • The procedure where the quota was adjusted based on previous TACC setting in year 2016 gave a recommended TACC for 2017 of between 1100 and 1130 t. • The procedure that focussed directly on optimising the average harvest to match target reference points gave a recommended TACC for 2017 of between 860 and 890 t. Use of these estimates to set TACC will depend on management and industry aims for the fishery.

Population ageing and monetary policy

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira

High adult mortality in disease-challenged frog populations increases vulnerability to drought

Pathogen emergence can drive major changes in host population demography, with implications for population dynamics and sensitivity to environmental fluctuations. The amphibian disease chytridiomycosis, caused by infection with the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is implicated in the severe decline of over 200 amphibian species. In species that have declined but not become extinct, Bd persists and can cause substantial ongoing mortality. High rates of mortality associated with Bd may drive major changes in host demography, but this process is poorly understood. Here, we compared population age structure of Bd-infected populations, Bd-free populations, and museum specimens collected prior to Bd emergence for the endangered Australian frog, Litoria verreauxii alpina (alpine tree frog). We then used population simulations to investigate how pathogen-associated demographic shifts affect the ability of populations to persist in stochastic environments. We found that Bd-infected populations have a severely truncated age structure associated with very high rates of annual adult mortality. Near-complete annual adult turnover in Bd-infected populations means that individuals breed once, compared with Bd-free populations where adults may breed across multiple years. Our simulations showed that truncated age structure erodes the capacity of populations to withstand periodic recruitment failure; a common challenge for species reproducing in uncertain environments. We document previously undescribed demographic shifts associated with a globally emerging pathogen and demonstrate how these shifts alter host ecology. Truncation of age structure associated with Bd effectively reduces host niche width, and can help explain the contraction of L. v. alpina to perennial waterbodies where the risk of drought-induced recruitment failure is low. Reduced capacity to tolerate other sources of mortality may explain variation in decline severity among other chytridiomycosis-challenged species and highlights the potential to mitigate disease impacts through minimising other sources of mortality.

Successional changes in feeding activity by threatened cockatoos in revegetated mine sites

Provision of key habitat resources is essential for effectively managing species that have specific ecological requirements and occur in production landscapes. Threatened black cockatoos in the jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest of Western Australia have a wide range, so their conservation requires support from all land tenures, not just reserves. Mining in the jarrah forest temporarily removes cockatoo feeding habitat, so it is important to understand how cockatoos exploit revegetated areas for food resources. Aims We aimed to determine whether there were successional patterns in cockatoo feeding activity in revegetation aged from 4 to 23 years at three mine sites in the jarrah forest in south-Western Australia. Methods We surveyed 232 plots in revegetation to document (1) structural and floristic variation in vegetation across mine sites and revegetation ages, (2) differences in cockatoo feeding activity across mine sites and revegetation ages on the basis of feeding residues and (3) any edge effect reflecting preferential use of vegetation at the interior or exterior of mine pits. We also documented the frequency of occurrence of cockatoo food plants and feeding residues in 480 plots in unmined forest to compare with revegetated areas. Key results Marri (Corymbia calophylla) and jarrah were commonly consumed in unmined forest and Banksia and Hakea species were also fed on to a lesser extent. Revegetated mine pits provided food within 4 years and continued to do so up until the oldest plots studied (23 years). The relative importance of food plants shifted from proteaceous species in young revegetation to myrtaceous species in intermediate to older revegetation. However, extent of feeding on myrtaceous species in older revegetation did not equate to feeding rates in unmined forest, with lower frequencies recorded in revegetation. Conclusions Black cockatoos fed in revegetation at all three mine sites, despite variations in vegetation age, structure and floristics. Feeding on proteaceous and myrtaceous food plants occurred within 4 and 7 years of revegetation being established, respectively, indicating that some food resources are restored quickly after mining disturbance of the jarrah forest. Implications Our results emphasise the importance of monitoring fauna recolonisation over appropriate time scales, to understand how successional processes in revegetation influence fauna population persistence in production landscapes.

Structure du temps de travail des infirmières de santé publique: effets de l'âge des patients, de la nature des prestations fournies et du lieu du contact. [Structure of work times of public health nurses: effect of the age of patients, nature of care given and location of contact].

In the framework of health services research sponsored by the Swiss National Science Foundation, a research was undertaken of the activity of the large majority of the public health nurses working in the Swiss cantons of Vaud and Fribourg (total population 700,000). During one week, 130 nurses gathered, with a specially devised instrument, data on 4165 patient visits. Studying the duration of the contacts, one has distinguished contact duration per se (DC), duration of the travel time preceding the contact (DD), and total duration in relation with the contact (DTC-addition of the first two). It was noted that the three durations increased significantly with patient age (as regard travel time, this is explained by the higher proportion of home visits in higher age groups, as compared with visits at a health center). Examined according to location of the visit, contact duration per se (without travel) is higher for visits at home and in nursing homes than for those taking place at a health center. Looked at in respect to the care given (technical care, or basic nursing care, or both simultaneously), our data show that the provision of basic nursing care (alone or with technical care) doubles contact duration (from 20 to 42-45'). The analyses according to patient age shows that, at an advanced age (beyond 80 years particularly), there is an important increase of the visits where both types of care are given. However, contact duration per se shows a significant raise with age only for the group "technical care only"; it can be demonstrated that this is due to the fact that older patients require more complex technical acts (e.g., bladder care, as compared with simpler acts such as injection). A model of the relationships between patient age and contact duration is proposed: it is because of the increase in the proportions of home visits, of visits including basic nursing care, and of more complex technical acts that older persons require more of the working time of public health nurses.

The effect of age on the structure and compostition of the cell walls of Choanephora cucurbitarum

The effect of age on the structure and composition of isolated and purified cell walls from cultures of Choanephora cucurbitarum was investigated by microchemical analyses, visible and infrared spectrophotometry, x-ray diffractometry and electron microscopy. Qualitative evaluation revealed the presence of lipids, proteins, neutral sugars, strong alkali soluble sugars, chitin, chitosan and uronic acids in the cell walls of both the 1 and 7 day old cultures. As the mycelium aged, there was a slight but statistically significant increase in the protein content, and a pronounced rise in the chitin and neutral sugar constituents of the cell walls. Conversely, the decrease in the chitosan content during this period had the net effect of altering the chitin: chitosan ratio from near unity in the younger cultures, to a 2:1 ratio in the 7 day old cell wall samples. Glutaraldehyde-osmium fixed thin sections of the 1 day old vegetative hyphae of £. curbitarum revealed the presence of a monolayered cell wall, which upon aging became bilayered. Replicas of acid hydrolysed cell walls demonstrated that both the 1 and 7 day old samples possessed an outer layer which was composed of finely granular amorphous material and randomly distributed microfibrils. The deposition of an inner secondary layer composed of parallel oriented microfibrils in the older hypha was correlated with an increase in the chitin content in the cell wall. The significance of these results with respect to the intimate relationship between composition and structure is discussed.

The effect of gregarine parasite infections, age, and diet on calling song structure and mating behaviour in the Texas field cricket, Gryllus integer

In the past ten years, many researchers have focussed their attention on parasites regarding the role they may play in causing variations in male secondary sexual traits and subsequent effects on female choice. Male age has also been suggested to be an important factor in female choice if old age reflects superior genes. This study investigated the effects that gregarine gut parasites, age, and diet have on the calling and mating behaviour of the male Texas field cricket, Gryllus integer. Male calling songs were recorded in the laboratory using a Digital Signal Processing Network. The song parameters measured were: pulse rate, pulse width, burst duration, pulses per burst, interburst interval, and percent missing pulses. The effects of parasite load and age on the various calling song parameters was investigated in crickets that were fed two different diets varying in nutritional quality. None of the calling song parameters were affected by either parasite load or age in either diet grou p. Courtship behaviour was ob served and recorded using an Eventlog recorder on an IBM computer in the laboratory. Females mated equally with paras(tized and unparasitized males and with old and young males The total duration and proportion of time spent performing each of 9 courtship displays were recorded for males on each diet. Only one display was affected by parasite load. Highly parasitized males fed the nutritionally inferior diet juddered for a proportionately shorter time than males with low parasite loads. Also, older males performed juddering and shaking antennae proportionally longer and juddering and raising wings for longer durations than younger males. Males that successfully mated were observed for performance of 8 post-copulatory guarding behaviour displays. None of the guarding behaviours were affected by parasite load. However, one display was affected by age, with older males performing guard turning for shorter durations than younger males. Results are discuss,ed in terms of the influence of parasites and age on female choice.