Estimators and Tests based on Likelihood-Depth with Application to Weibull Distribution, Gaussian and Gumbel Copula

In dieser Arbeit werden mithilfe der Likelihood-Tiefen, eingeführt von Mizera und Müller (2004), (ausreißer-)robuste Schätzfunktionen und Tests für den unbekannten Parameter einer stetigen Dichtefunktion entwickelt. Die entwickelten Verfahren werden dann auf drei verschiedene Verteilungen angewandt. Für eindimensionale Parameter wird die Likelihood-Tiefe eines Parameters im Datensatz als das Minimum aus dem Anteil der Daten, für die die Ableitung der Loglikelihood-Funktion nach dem Parameter nicht negativ ist, und dem Anteil der Daten, für die diese Ableitung nicht positiv ist, berechnet. Damit hat der Parameter die größte Tiefe, für den beide Anzahlen gleich groß sind. Dieser wird zunächst als Schätzer gewählt, da die Likelihood-Tiefe ein Maß dafür sein soll, wie gut ein Parameter zum Datensatz passt. Asymptotisch hat der Parameter die größte Tiefe, für den die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass für eine Beobachtung die Ableitung der Loglikelihood-Funktion nach dem Parameter nicht negativ ist, gleich einhalb ist. Wenn dies für den zu Grunde liegenden Parameter nicht der Fall ist, ist der Schätzer basierend auf der Likelihood-Tiefe verfälscht. In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie diese Verfälschung korrigiert werden kann sodass die korrigierten Schätzer konsistente Schätzungen bilden. Zur Entwicklung von Tests für den Parameter, wird die von Müller (2005) entwickelte Simplex Likelihood-Tiefe, die eine U-Statistik ist, benutzt. Es zeigt sich, dass für dieselben Verteilungen, für die die Likelihood-Tiefe verfälschte Schätzer liefert, die Simplex Likelihood-Tiefe eine unverfälschte U-Statistik ist. Damit ist insbesondere die asymptotische Verteilung bekannt und es lassen sich Tests für verschiedene Hypothesen formulieren. Die Verschiebung in der Tiefe führt aber für einige Hypothesen zu einer schlechten Güte des zugehörigen Tests. Es werden daher korrigierte Tests eingeführt und Voraussetzungen angegeben, unter denen diese dann konsistent sind. Die Arbeit besteht aus zwei Teilen. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird die allgemeine Theorie über die Schätzfunktionen und Tests dargestellt und zudem deren jeweiligen Konsistenz gezeigt. Im zweiten Teil wird die Theorie auf drei verschiedene Verteilungen angewandt: Die Weibull-Verteilung, die Gauß- und die Gumbel-Copula. Damit wird gezeigt, wie die Verfahren des ersten Teils genutzt werden können, um (robuste) konsistente Schätzfunktionen und Tests für den unbekannten Parameter der Verteilung herzuleiten. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass für die drei Verteilungen mithilfe der Likelihood-Tiefen robuste Schätzfunktionen und Tests gefunden werden können. In unverfälschten Daten sind vorhandene Standardmethoden zum Teil überlegen, jedoch zeigt sich der Vorteil der neuen Methoden in kontaminierten Daten und Daten mit Ausreißern.

News from compositions, the R package

The R-package “compositions”is a tool for advanced compositional analysis. Its basic functionality has seen some conceptual improvement, containing now some facilities to work with and represent ilr bases built from balances, and an elaborated subsys- tem for dealing with several kinds of irregular data: (rounded or structural) zeroes, incomplete observations and outliers. The general approach to these irregularities is based on subcompositions: for an irregular datum, one can distinguish a “regular” sub- composition (where all parts are actually observed and the datum behaves typically) and a “problematic” subcomposition (with those unobserved, zero or rounded parts, or else where the datum shows an erratic or atypical behaviour). Systematic classification schemes are proposed for both outliers and missing values (including zeros) focusing on the nature of irregularities in the datum subcomposition(s). To compute statistics with values missing at random and structural zeros, a projection approach is implemented: a given datum contributes to the estimation of the desired parameters only on the subcompositon where it was observed. For data sets with values below the detection limit, two different approaches are provided: the well-known imputation technique, and also the projection approach. To compute statistics in the presence of outliers, robust statistics are adapted to the characteristics of compositional data, based on the minimum covariance determinant approach. The outlier classification is based on four different models of outlier occur- rence and Monte-Carlo-based tests for their characterization. Furthermore the package provides special plots helping to understand the nature of outliers in the dataset. Keywords: coda-dendrogram, lost values, MAR, missing data, MCD estimator, robustness, rounded zeros

El Outsourcing en la dinámica de sistemas hacia mercados extranjeros

Este trabajo recopila literatura académica relevante sobre estrategias de entrada y metodologías para la toma de decisión sobre la contratación de servicios de Outsourcing para el caso de empresas que planean expandirse hacia mercados extranjeros. La manera en que una empresa planifica su entrada a un mercado extranjero, y realiza la consideración y evaluación de información relevante y el diseño de la estrategia, determina el éxito o no de la misma. De otro lado, las metodologías consideradas se concentran en el nivel estratégico de la pirámide organizacional. Se parte de métodos simples para llegar a aquellos basados en la Teoría de Decisión Multicriterio, tanto individuales como híbridos. Finalmente, se presenta la Dinámica de Sistemas como herramienta valiosa en el proceso, por cuanto puede combinarse con métodos multicriterio.

Desenvolvimento de um método in vivo para melhor compreender a pele do obeso

O impacto da obesidade na fisiopatologia da pele humana parece relacionar-se com diversas dermatoses, resultado da alteração da sua fisiologia normal, incluindo alterações na função barreira e na função de “envelope”. Contudo, a informação disponível é ainda escassa devido às diversas complexidades do tema. Este trabalho pretende contribuir para a definição de uma metodologia de abordagem experimental para estudar, de forma objectiva, as alterações funcionais que caracterizam a pele obesa. O presente estudo, transversal, incluiu 28 voluntárias, do sexo feminino, saudáveis, com idade média 23±5 anos de idade, após consentimento informado. Foi realizada uma única medição de caracterização das diversas funções cutâneas obtidas por meios não invasivos em condições controladas. As variáveis consideradas relevantes foram, a hidratação (superficial e profunda) a função de barreira e o comportamento biomecânico, medidos em 4 áreas anatómicas distintas. Através do SPSS (v 20.0) realizámos uma análise estatística univariada com cálculo de medidas de tendência central e de dispersão. Recorremos aos testes de Pearson e de Spearman, para as variáveis que seguiam, ou não, uma distribuição normal, respectivamente, adoptando um grau de confiança de 95% . Os resultados permitem propor uma metodologia para o estudo da pele, aplicável ao doente obeso, incluindo a escolha das áreas anatómicas e das variáveis adequadas ao objetivo pretendido.

Developmental changes in the germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and longevity of individual seeds of Trifolium ambiguum

Background and Aims: Using two parental clones of outcrossing Trifolium ambiguum as a potential model system, we examined how during seed development the maternal parent, number of seeds per pod, seed position within the pod, and pod position within the inflorescence influenced individual seed fresh weight, dry weight, water content, germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and subsequent longevity of individual seeds. Methods: Near simultaneous, manual reciprocal crosses were carried out between clonal lines for two experiments. Infructescences were harvested at intervals during seed development. Each individual seed was weighed and then used to determine dry weight or one of the physiological behaviour traits. Key Results: Whilst population mass maturity was reached at 33–36 days after pollination (DAP), seed-to-seed variation in maximum seed dry weight, when it was achieved, and when maturation drying commenced, was considerable. Individual seeds acquired germinability between 14 and 44 DAP, desiccation tolerance between 30 and 40 DAP, and the capability to become hardseeded between 30 and 47 DAP. The time for viability to fall to 50 % (p50) at 60 % relative humidity and 45 °C increased between 36 and 56 DAP, when the seed coats of most individuals had become dark orange, but declined thereafter. Individual seed f. wt at harvest did not correlate with air-dry storage survival period. Analysing survival data for cohorts of seeds reduced the standard deviation of the normal distribution of seed deaths in time, but no sub-population showed complete uniformity of survival period. Conclusions: Variation in individual seed behaviours within a developing population is inherent and inevitable. In this outbreeder, there is significant variation in seed longevity which appears dependent on embryo genotype with little effect of maternal genotype or architectural factors.

An experimental manipulation of responsibility in children: a test of the inflated responsibility model of obsessive-compulsive disorder

The objective of this study was to investigate whether Salkovskis (1985) inflated responsibility model of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) applied to children. In an experimental design, 81 children aged 9– 12 years were randomly allocated to three conditions: an inflated responsibility group, a moderate responsibility group, and a reduced responsibility group. In all groups children were asked to sort sweets according to whether or not they contained nuts. At baseline the groups did not differ on children’s self reported anxiety, depression, obsessive-compulsive symptoms or on inflated responsibility beliefs. The experimental manipulation successfully changed children’s perceptions of responsibility. During the sorting task time taken to complete the task, checking behaviours, hesitations, and anxiety were recorded. There was a significant effect of responsibility level on the behavioural variables of time taken, hesitations and check; as perceived responsibility increased children took longer to complete the task and checked and hesitated more often. There was no between-group difference in children’s self reported state anxiety. The results offer preliminary support for the link between inflated responsibility and increased checking behaviours in children and add to the small but growing literature suggesting that cognitive models of OCD may apply to children.

Accounting for the economic risk, caused by variation in disease severity, in fungicide dose decisions: exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk-aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost, plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimises net costs on average across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept ‘high loss’ years one year in ten or one year in twenty (i.e. specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk-aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over three years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of ‘high loss’ years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

The zero, the centre and the empty utopia: from Rossellini to Walter Salles

This article examines utopian gestures and inaugural desires in two films which became symbolic of the Brazilian Film Revival in the late 1990s: Central Station (1998) and Midnight (1999). Both evolve around the idea of an overcrowded or empty centre in a country trapped between past and future, in which the motif of the zero stands for both the announcement and the negation of utopia. The analysis draws parallels between them and new wave films which also elaborate on the idea of the zero, with examples picked from Italian neo-realism, the Brazilian Cinema Novo and the New German Cinema. In Central Station, the ‘point zero’, or the core of the homeland, is retrieved in the archaic backlands, where political issues are resolved in the private sphere and the social drama turns into family melodrama. Midnight, in its turn, recycles Glauber Rocha’s utopian prophecies in the new millennium’s hour zero, when the earthly paradise represented by the sea is re-encountered by the middle-class character, but not by the poor migrant. In both cases, public injustice is compensated by the heroes’ personal achievements, but those do not refer to the real nation, its history or society. Their utopian breadth, based on nostalgia, citation and genre techniques, is of a virtual kind, attune to cinema only.

Endurance training activates AMP-activated protein kinase, increases expression of uncoupling protein 2 and reduces insulin secretion from rat pancreatic islets

Endurance exercise is known to enhance peripheral insulin sensitivity and reduce insulin secretion. However, it is unknown whether the latter effect is due to the reduction in plasma substrate availability or alterations in beta-cell secretory machinery. Here, we tested the hypothesis that endurance exercise reduces insulin secretion by altering the intracellular energy-sensitive AMP-activated kinase (AMPK) signaling pathway. Male Wistar rats were submitted to endurance protocol training one, three, or five times per week, over 8 weeks. After that, pancreatic islets were isolated, and glucose-induced insulin secretion (GIIS), glucose transporter 2 (GLUT2) protein content, total and phosphorylated calmodulin kinase kinase (CaMKII), and AMPK levels as well as peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma coactivator-1-alpha (PGC-1 alpha) and uncoupling protein 2 (UCP2) content were measured. After 8 weeks, chronic endurance exercise reduced GIIS in a dose-response manner proportionally to weekly exercise frequency. Contrariwise, increases in GLUT2 protein content, CaMKII and AMPK phosphorylation levels were observed. These alterations were accompanied by an increase in UCP2 content, probably mediated by an enhancement in PGC-1 alpha protein expression. In conclusion, chronic endurance exercise induces adaptations in beta-cells leading to a reduction in GIIS, probably by activating the AMPK signaling pathway. Journal of Endocrinology (2011) 208, 257-264

Crystal and molecular structures of three 2-sulphur-substituted cyclohexanones studied by X-ray crystallography and by ab initio molecular orbital calculations

The conformational features of three 2-sulphur-substituted cyclohexanone derivatives, which differ in the number of sulphur-bound oxygen atoms, i.e. zero (I), one (II) and two (III), were investigated by single crystal X-ray crystallography and geometry optimized structures determined using Hartree-Fock method. In each of (I)-(III) an intramolecular S center dot center dot center dot O(carbonyl) interaction is found with the magnitude correlated with the oxidation state of the sulphur atom, i.e. 2.838(3) angstrom in (I) to 2.924(2) angstrom in (II) to 3.0973(18) angstrom in (III). There is an inverse relationship between the strength of this interaction and the magnitude of the carbonyl bond. The supramolecular aggregation patterns are primarily determined by C-H center dot center dot center dot O contacts and are similarly influenced by the number of oxygen atoms in the molecular structures. Thus, a supramolecular chain is found in the crystal structure of (I). With an additional oxygen atom available to participate in C-H center dot center dot center dot O interactions, as in (II), a two-dimensional array is found. Finally, a three-dimensional network is found for (III). Despite there being differences in conformations between the experimental structures and those calculated in the gas-phase, the S center dot center dot center dot O interactions persist. The presence of intermolecular C-H center dot center dot center dot O interactions involving the cyclohexanone-carbonyl group in the solid-state, disrupts the stabilising intramolecular C-H center dot center dot center dot O interaction in the energetically-favoured conformation. (I): C(12)H(13)NO(3)S, triclinic space group P (1) over bar with a = 5.392(3) angstrom b = 10.731(6) angstrom, c = 11.075(6) angstrom, alpha = 113.424(4)degrees, beta = 94.167(9)degrees, gamma = 98.444(6)degrees, V = 575.5(6) angstrom(3), Z = 2, R(1) = 0.052; (II): C(12)H(13)NO(4)S, monoclinic P2(1)/n, a = 7.3506(15) angstrom, b = 6.7814(14) angstrom, c = 23.479(5) angstrom, beta = 92.94(3)degrees, V = 1168.8(4) angstrom(3), Z = 4, R(1) = 0.046; (III): C(12)H(13)NO(5)S, monoclinic P2(1)/c, a = 5.5491(11) angstrom, b = 24.146(3) angstrom, c = 11.124(3) angstrom, beta = 114.590(10)degrees, V = 1355.3(5) angstrom(3), Z = 4, R(1) = 0.051.

Endurance training in humans leads to fiber type-specific increases in levels of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-[gamma] coactivator-1 and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-[alpha] in skeletal muscle

The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-γ coactivator-1 (PGC-1) can induce mitochondria biogenesis and has been implicated in the development of oxidative type I muscle fibers. The PPAR isoforms α, &beta;/δ, and γ control the transcription of genes involved in fatty acid and glucose metabolism. As endurance training increases skeletal muscle mitochondria and type I fiber content and fatty acid oxidative capacity, our aim was to determine whether these increases could be mediated by possible effects on PGC-1 or PPAR-α, -&beta;/δ, and -γ. Seven healthy men performed 6 weeks of endurance training and the expression levels of PGC-1 and PPAR-α, -&beta;/δ, and -γ mRNA as well as the fiber type distribution of the PGC-1 and PPAR-α proteins were measured in biopsies from their vastus lateralis muscle. PGC-1 and PPAR-α mRNA expression increased by 2.7- and 2.2-fold (P < 0.01), respectively, after endurance training. PGC-1 expression was 2.2- and 6-fold greater in the type IIa than in the type I and IIx fibers, respectively. It increased by 2.8-fold in the type IIa fibers and by 1.5-fold in both the type I and IIx fibers after endurance training (P < 0.015). PPAR-α was 1.9-fold greater in type I than in the II fibers and increased by 3.0-fold and 1.5-fold in these respective fibers after endurance training (P < 0.001). The increases in PGC-1 and PPAR-α levels reported in this study may play an important role in the changes in muscle mitochondria content, oxidative phenotype, and sensitivity to insulin known to be induced by endurance training.

A tangled tale of two teal : population history of the grey Anas gracilis and chestnut teal A. castanea of Australia

Two Australian species of teal (Anseriformes: Anatidae: Anas), the grey teal Anas gracilis and the chestnut teal A. castanea, are remarkable for the zero or near-zero divergence recorded between them in earlier surveys of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity. We confirmed this result through wider geographical and population sampling as well as nucleotide sampling in the more rapidly evolving mtDNA control region. Any data set where two species share polymorphism as is the case here can be explained by a model of gene flow through hybridization on one hand or by incomplete lineage sorting on the other hand. Ideally, analysis of such shared polymorphism would simultaneously estimate the likelihood of both phenomena. To do this, we used the underlying principle of the IMa package to explore ramifications to understanding population histories of A. gracilis and A. castanea. We cannot reject that hybridization occurs between the two species but an equally or more plausible finding for their nearly zero divergence is incomplete sorting following very recent divergence between the two, probably in the mid-late Pleistocene. Our data add to studies that explore intermediate stages in the evolution of reciprocal monophyly and paraphyletic or polyphyletic relationships in mtDNA diversity among widespread Australian birds.

Tracking phenotypically and functionally distinct T cell subsets via T cell repertoire diversity

Antigen-specific T cell receptors (TCRs) recognise complexes of immunogenic peptides (p) and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) glycoproteins. Responding T cell populations show profiles of preferred usage (or bias) toward one or few TCR&beta; chains. Such skewing is also observed, though less commonly, in TCRα chain usage. The extent and character of clonal diversity within individual, antigen-specific T cell sets can be established by sequence analysis of the TCRV&beta; and/or TCRVα CDR3 loops. The present review provides examples of such TCR repertoires in prominent responses to acute and persistent viruses. The determining role of structural constraints and antigen dose is discussed, as is the way that functionally and phenotypically distinct populations can be defined at the clonal level. In addition, clonal dissection of “high” versus “low” avidity, or “central” versus “effector” memory sets provides insights into how these antigen specific T cell responses are generated and maintained. As TCR diversity potentially influences both the protective capacity of CD8+ T cells and the subversion of immune control that leads to viral escape, analysing the spectrum of TCR selection and maintenance has implications for improving the functional efficacy of T cell responsiveness and effector function.

Efficient management of drinking water distribution systems through the application of water quality modeling

The quality of drinking water generally degrades when it is delivered through a distribution system due to the decay of disinfectant, which subsequently allows the re-growth of microorganisms in the distribution system. A model that describes the changes that occur in the water quality in distribution system is needed to determine whether to enhance the treatment processes or to improve the distribution system so that microbiological criteria are met. This paper describes how chlorine decay kinetics are modeled and the model output is used in finding the elements that are contributing to the consumption of chlorine at the treatment plant other than the water itself; this allows better control of chlorine dosing at the treatment plant, which in tum will reduce the formation of disinfectant by-products. In addition, the model will accurately predict the decay due to the organic/inorganic and nitrogenous compounds that are remaining in the water at any point in the distribution system, which will indicate the status of the distribution system with respect to its chlorine consumption. Further, if re-chlorination is introduced in the distribution system downstream of the treatment plant, the model will predict the chlorine decay due to the slow reacting organic and nitrogenous compounds accurately.

Behavioral inference of diving metabolic rate in free-ranging leatherback turtles

Good estimates of metabolic rate in free‐ranging animals are essential for understanding behavior, distribution, and abundance. For the critically endangered leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea), one of the world’s largest reptiles, there has been a long‐standing debate over whether this species demonstrates any metabolic endothermy. In short, do leatherbacks have a purely ectothermic reptilian metabolic rate or one that is elevated as a result of regional endothermy? Recent measurements have provided the first estimates of field metabolic rate (FMR) in leatherback turtles using doubly labeled water; however, the technique is prohibitively expensive and logistically difficult and produces estimates that are highly variable across individuals in this species. We therefore examined dive duration and depth data collected for nine free‐swimming leatherback turtles over long periods (up to 431 d) to infer aerobic dive limits (ADLs) based on the asymptotic increase in maximum dive duration with depth. From this index of ADL and the known mass‐specific oxygen storage capacity (To2) of leatherbacks, we inferred diving metabolic rate (DMR) as . We predicted that if leatherbacks conform to the purely ectothermic reptilian model of oxygen consumption, these inferred estimates of DMR should fall between predicted and measured values of reptilian resting and field metabolic rates, as well as being substantially lower than the FMR predicted for an endotherm of equivalent mass. Indeed, our behaviorally derived DMR estimates ( mL O2 min−1 kg−1) were times the resting metabolic rate measured in unrestrained leatherbacks and times the average FMR for a reptile of equivalent mass. These DMRs were also nearly one order of magnitude lower than the FMR predicted for an endotherm of equivalent mass. Thus, our findings lend support to the notion that diving leatherback turtles are indeed ectothermic and do not demonstrate elevated metabolic rates that might be expected due to regional endothermy. Their capacity to have a warm body core even in cold water therefore seems to derive from their large size, heat exchangers, thermal inertia, and insulating fat layers and not from an elevated metabolic rate.