7 resultados para ZERO-OR-ONE INFLATED BETA DISTRIBUTION

em CaltechTHESIS


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The Daya Bay Reactor Antineutrino Experiment observed the disappearance of reactor $\bar{\nu}_e$ from six $2.9~GW_{th}$ reactor cores in Daya Bay, China. The Experiment consists of six functionally identical $\bar{\nu}_e$ detectors, which detect $\bar{\nu}_e$ by inverse beta decay using a total of about 120 metric tons of Gd-loaded liquid scintillator as the target volume. These $\bar{\nu}_e$ detectors were installed in three underground experimental halls, two near halls and one far hall, under the mountains near Daya Bay, with overburdens of 250 m.w.e, 265 m.w.e and 860 m.w.e. and flux-weighted baselines of 470 m, 576 m and 1648 m. A total of 90179 $\bar{\nu}_e$ candidates were observed in the six detectors over a period of 55 days, 57549 at the Daya Bay near site, 22169 at the Ling Ao near site and 10461 at the far site. By performing a rate-only analysis, the value of $sin^2 2\theta_{13}$ was determined to be $0.092 \pm 0.017$.

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A research program was designed (1) to map regional lithological units of the lunar surface based on measurements of spatial variations in spectral reflectance, and, (2) to establish the sequence of the formation of such lithological units from measurements of the accumulated affects of impacting bodies.

Spectral reflectance data were obtained by scanning luminance variations over the lunar surface at three wavelengths (0.4µ, 0.52µ, and 0.7µ). These luminance measurements were reduced to normalized spectral reflectance values relative to a standard area in More Serenitotis. The spectral type of each lunar area was identified from the shape of its reflectance spectrum. From these data lithological units or regions of constant color were identified. The maria fall into two major spectral classes: circular moria like More Serenitotis contain S-type or red material and thin, irregular, expansive maria like Mare Tranquillitatis contain T-type or blue material. Four distinct subtypes of S-type reflectances and two of T-type reflectances exist. As these six subtypes occur in a number of lunar regions, it is concluded that they represent specific types of material rather than some homologous set of a few end members.

The relative ages or sequence of formation of these more units were established from measurements of the accumulated impacts which have occurred since more formation. A model was developed which relates the integrated flux of particles which hove impacted a surface to the distribution of craters as functions of size and shape. Erosion of craters is caused chiefly by small bodies which produce negligible individual changes in crater shape. Hence the shape of a crater can be used to estimate the total number of small impacts that have occurred since the crater was formed. Relative ages of a surface can then be obtained from measurements of the slopes of the walls of the oldest craters formed on the surface. The results show that different maria and regions within them were emplaced at different times. An approximate absolute time scale was derived from Apollo 11 crystallization ages under an assumption of a constant rote of impacting for the last 4 x 10^9 yrs. Assuming, constant flux, the period of mare formation lasted from over 4 x 10^9 yrs to about 1.5 x 10^9 yrs ago.

A synthesis of the results of relative age measurements and of spectral reflectance mapping shows that (1) the formation of the lunar maria occurred in three stages; material of only one spectral type was deposited in each stage, (2) two distinct kinds of maria exist, each type distinguished by morphology, structure, gravity anomalies, time of formation, and spectral reflectance type, and (3) individual maria have complicated histories; they contain a variety of lithic units emplaced at different times.

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The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

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The epoch of reionization remains one of the last uncharted eras of cosmic history, yet this time is of crucial importance, encompassing the formation of both the first galaxies and the first metals in the universe. In this thesis, I present four related projects that both characterize the abundance and properties of these first galaxies and uses follow-up observations of these galaxies to achieve one of the first observations of the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium during the heart of the reionization era.

First, we present the results of a spectroscopic survey using the Keck telescopes targeting 6.3 < z < 8.8 star-forming galaxies. We secured observations of 19 candidates, initially selected by applying the Lyman break technique to infrared imaging data from the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This survey builds upon earlier work from Stark et al. (2010, 2011), which showed that star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 6, when the universe was highly ionized, displayed a significant increase in strong Lyman alpha emission with redshift. Our work uses the LRIS and NIRSPEC instruments to search for Lyman alpha emission in candidates at a greater redshift in the observed near-infrared, in order to discern if this evolution continues, or is quenched by an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Our spectroscopic observations typically reach a 5-sigma limiting sensitivity of < 50 AA. Despite expecting to detect Lyman alpha at 5-sigma in 7-8 galaxies based on our Monte Carlo simulations, we only achieve secure detections in two of 19 sources. Combining these results with a similar sample of 7 galaxies from Fontana et al. (2010), we determine that these few detections would only occur in < 1% of simulations if the intrinsic distribution was the same as that at z ~ 6. We consider other explanations for this decline, but find the most convincing explanation to be an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Using theoretical models, we infer a neutral fraction of X_HI ~ 0.44 at z = 7.

Second, we characterize the abundance of star-forming galaxies at z > 6.5 again using WFC3 onboard the HST. This project conducted a detailed search for candidates both in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field as well as a number of additional wider Hubble Space Telescope surveys to construct luminosity functions at both z ~ 7 and 8, reaching 0.65 and 0.25 mag fainter than any previous surveys, respectively. With this increased depth, we achieve some of the most robust constraints on the Schechter function faint end slopes at these redshifts, finding very steep values of alpha_{z~7} = -1.87 +/- 0.18 and alpha_{z~8} = -1.94 +/- 0.23. We discuss these results in the context of cosmic reionization, and show that given reasonable assumptions about the ionizing spectra and escape fraction of ionizing photons, only half the photons needed to maintain reionization are provided by currently observable galaxies at z ~ 7-8. We show that an extension of the luminosity function down to M_{UV} = -13.0, coupled with a low level of star-formation out to higher redshift, can fit all available constraints on the ionization history of the universe.

Third, we investigate the strength of nebular emission in 3 < z < 5 star-forming galaxies. We begin by using the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) onboard the Spitzer Space Telescope to investigate the strength of H alpha emission in a sample of 3.8 < z < 5.0 spectroscopically confirmed galaxies. We then conduct near-infrared observations of star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 3.8 to investigate the strength of the [OIII] 4959/5007 and H beta emission lines from the ground using MOSFIRE. In both cases, we uncover near-ubiquitous strong nebular emission, and find excellent agreement between the fluxes derived using the separate methods. For a subset of 9 objects in our MOSFIRE sample that have secure Spitzer IRAC detections, we compare the emission line flux derived from the excess in the K_s band photometry to that derived from direct spectroscopy and find 7 to agree within a factor of 1.6, with only one catastrophic outlier. Finally, for a different subset for which we also have DEIMOS rest-UV spectroscopy, we compare the relative velocities of Lyman alpha and the rest-optical nebular lines which should trace the cites of star-formation. We find a median velocity offset of only v_{Ly alpha} = 149 km/s, significantly less than the 400 km/s observed for star-forming galaxies with weaker Lyman alpha emission at z = 2-3 (Steidel et al. 2010), and show that this decrease can be explained by a decrease in the neutral hydrogen column density covering the galaxy. We discuss how this will imply a lower neutral fraction for a given observed extinction of Lyman alpha when its visibility is used to probe the ionization state of the intergalactic medium.

Finally, we utilize the recent CANDELS wide-field, infra-red photometry over the GOODS-N and S fields to re-analyze the use of Lyman alpha emission to evaluate the neutrality of the intergalactic medium. With this new data, we derive accurate ultraviolet spectral slopes for a sample of 468 3 < z < 6 star-forming galaxies, already observed in the rest-UV with the Keck spectroscopic survey (Stark et al. 2010). We use a Bayesian fitting method which accurately accounts for contamination and obscuration by skylines to derive a relationship between the UV-slope of a galaxy and its intrinsic Lyman alpha equivalent width probability distribution. We then apply this data to spectroscopic surveys during the reionization era, including our own, to accurately interpret the drop in observed Lyman alpha emission. From our most recent such MOSFIRE survey, we also present evidence for the most distant galaxy confirmed through emission line spectroscopy at z = 7.62, as well as a first detection of the CIII]1907/1909 doublet at z > 7.

We conclude the thesis by exploring future prospects and summarizing the results of Robertson et al. (2013). This work synthesizes many of the measurements in this thesis, along with external constraints, to create a model of reionization that fits nearly all available constraints.

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While some of the deepest results in nature are those that give explicit bounds between important physical quantities, some of the most intriguing and celebrated of such bounds come from fields where there is still a great deal of disagreement and confusion regarding even the most fundamental aspects of the theories. For example, in quantum mechanics, there is still no complete consensus as to whether the limitations associated with Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle derive from an inherent randomness in physics, or rather from limitations in the measurement process itself, resulting from phenomena like back action. Likewise, the second law of thermodynamics makes a statement regarding the increase in entropy of closed systems, yet the theory itself has neither a universally-accepted definition of equilibrium, nor an adequate explanation of how a system with underlying microscopically Hamiltonian dynamics (reversible) settles into a fixed distribution.

Motivated by these physical theories, and perhaps their inconsistencies, in this thesis we use dynamical systems theory to investigate how the very simplest of systems, even with no physical constraints, are characterized by bounds that give limits to the ability to make measurements on them. Using an existing interpretation, we start by examining how dissipative systems can be viewed as high-dimensional lossless systems, and how taking this view necessarily implies the existence of a noise process that results from the uncertainty in the initial system state. This fluctuation-dissipation result plays a central role in a measurement model that we examine, in particular describing how noise is inevitably injected into a system during a measurement, noise that can be viewed as originating either from the randomness of the many degrees of freedom of the measurement device, or of the environment. This noise constitutes one component of measurement back action, and ultimately imposes limits on measurement uncertainty. Depending on the assumptions we make about active devices, and their limitations, this back action can be offset to varying degrees via control. It turns out that using active devices to reduce measurement back action leads to estimation problems that have non-zero uncertainty lower bounds, the most interesting of which arise when the observed system is lossless. One such lower bound, a main contribution of this work, can be viewed as a classical version of a Heisenberg uncertainty relation between the system's position and momentum. We finally also revisit the murky question of how macroscopic dissipation appears from lossless dynamics, and propose alternative approaches for framing the question using existing systematic methods of model reduction.

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The cross sections for the two antiproton-proton annihilation-in-flight modes,

ˉp + p → π+ + π-

ˉp + p → k+ + k-

were measured for fifteen laboratory antiproton beam momenta ranging from 0.72 to 2.62 GeV/c. No magnets were used to determine the charges in the final state. As a result, the angular distributions were obtained in the form [dσ/dΩ (ΘC.M.) + dσ/dΩ (π – ΘC.M.)] for 45 ≲ ΘC.M. ≲ 135°.

A hodoscope-counter system was used to discriminate against events with final states having more than two particles and antiproton-proton elastic scattering events. One spark chamber was used to record the track of each of the two charged final particles. A total of about 40,000 pictures were taken. The events were analyzed by measuring the laboratory angle of the track in each chamber. The value of the square of the mass of the final particles was calculated for each event assuming the reaction

ˉp + p → a pair of particles with equal masses.

About 20,000 events were found to be either annihilation into π ±-pair or k ±-pair events. The two different charged meson pair modes were also distinctly separated.

The average differential cross section of ˉp + p → π+ + π- varied from ~ 25 µb/sr at antiproton beam momentum 0.72 GeV/c (total energy in center-of-mass system, √s = 2.0 GeV) to ~ 2 µb/sr at beam momentum 2.62 GeV/c (√s = 2.64 GeV). The most striking feature in the angular distribution was a peak at ΘC.M. = 90° (cos ΘC.M. = 0) which increased with √s and reached a maximum at √s ~ 2.1 GeV (beam momentum ~ 1.1 GeV/c). Then it diminished and seemed to disappear completely at √s ~ 2.5 GeV (beam momentum ~ 2.13 GeV/c). A valley in the angular distribution occurred at cos ΘC.M. ≈ 0.4. The differential cross section then increased as cos ΘC.M. approached 1.

The average differential cross section for ˉp + p → k+ + k- was about one third of that of the π±-pair mode throughout the energy range of this experiment. At the lower energies, the angular distribution, unlike that of the π±-pair mode, was quite isotropic. However, a peak at ΘC.M. = 90° seemed to develop at √s ~ 2.37 GeV (antiproton beam momentum ~ 1.82 GeV/c). No observable change was seen at that energy in the π±-pair cross section.

The possible connection of these features with the observed meson resonances at 2.2 GeV and 2.38 GeV, and its implications, were discussed.

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Part I

Several approximate Hartree-Fock SCF wavefunctions for the ground electronic state of the water molecule have been obtained using an increasing number of multicenter s, p, and d Slater-type atomic orbitals as basis sets. The predicted charge distribution has been extensively tested at each stage by calculating the electric dipole moment, molecular quadrupole moment, diamagnetic shielding, Hellmann-Feynman forces, and electric field gradients at both the hydrogen and the oxygen nuclei. It was found that a carefully optimized minimal basis set suffices to describe the electronic charge distribution adequately except in the vicinity of the oxygen nucleus. Our calculations indicate, for example, that the correct prediction of the field gradient at this nucleus requires a more flexible linear combination of p-orbitals centered on this nucleus than that in the minimal basis set. Theoretical values for the molecular octopole moment components are also reported.

Part II

The perturbation-variational theory of R. M. Pitzer for nuclear spin-spin coupling constants is applied to the HD molecule. The zero-order molecular orbital is described in terms of a single 1s Slater-type basis function centered on each nucleus. The first-order molecular orbital is expressed in terms of these two functions plus one singular basis function each of the types e-r/r and e-r ln r centered on one of the nuclei. The new kinds of molecular integrals were evaluated to high accuracy using numerical and analytical means. The value of the HD spin-spin coupling constant calculated with this near-minimal set of basis functions is JHD = +96.6 cps. This represents an improvement over the previous calculated value of +120 cps obtained without using the logarithmic basis function but is still considerably off in magnitude compared with the experimental measurement of JHD = +43 0 ± 0.5 cps.