Geochemistry and kinetic models od Cretaceous samples

The source rock potential of Cretaceous organic rich whole rock samples from deep sea drilling project (DSDP) wells offshore southwestern Africa was investigated using bulk and quantitative pyrolysis techniques. The sample material was taken from organic rich intervals of Aptian, Albian and Turonian aged core samples from DSDP site 364 offshore Angola, DSDP well 530A north of the Walvis Ridge offshore Namibia, and DSDP well 361 offshore South Africa. The analytical program included TOC, Rock-Eval, pyrolysis GC, bulk kinetics and micro-scale sealed vessel pyrolysis (MSSV) experiments. The results were used to determine differences in the source rock petroleum type organofacies, petroleum composition, gas/oil ratio (GOR) and pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) behavior of hydrocarbons generated from these black shales for petroleum system modeling purposes. The investigated Aptian and Albian organic rich shales proved to contain excellent quality marine kerogens. The highest source rock potential was identified in sapropelic shales in DSDP well 364, containing very homogeneous Type II and organic sulfur rich Type IIS kerogen. They generate P-N-A low wax oils and low GOR sulfur rich oils, whereas Type III kerogen rich silty sandstones of DSDP well 361 show a potential for gas/condensate generation. Bulk kinetic experiments on these samples indicate that the organic sulfur contents influence kerogen transformation rates, Type IIS kerogen being the least stable. South of the Walvis Ridge, the Turonian contains predominantly a Type III kerogen. North of the Walvis Ridge, the Turonian black shales contain Type II kerogen and have the potential to generate P-N-A low and high wax oils, the latter with a high GOR at high maturity. Our results provide the first compositional kinetic description of Cretaceous organic rich black shales, and demonstrate the excellent source rock potential, especially of the Aptian-aged source rock, that has been recognized in a number of the South Atlantic offshore basins.

Geochemistry, lithology and maceral analysis at DSDP Hole 71-511

The quantity, type, and maturity of the organic matter in Recent through Upper Jurassic sediments from the Falkland Plateau, DSDP Site 511, have been determined. Sediments were investigated for their hydrocarbon potential by organic carbon and Rock-Eval pyrolysis. Kerogen concentrates were prepared and analyzed in reflected and transmitted light to determine vitrinite reflectance and maceral content. Total extractable organic compounds were analyzed for their elemental composition, and the fraction of the nonaromatic hydrocarbons was determined by capillary column gas chromatography and combined gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Three main classes of organic matter can be determined at DSDP Site 511 by a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of microscopic and geochemical results. The Upper Jurassic to lower Albian black shales contain high amounts of organic matter of dominantly marine origin. The content of terrigenous organic matter increases at the base of the black shales, whereas the shallowest black shales near the Aptian/Albian boundary are transitional in composition, with increasing amounts of inert, partly oxidized organic matter which is the dominant component in all Albian through Tertiary sediments investigated. The organic matter in the black shales has a low level of maturity and has not yet reached the onset of thermal hydrocarbon generation. This is demonstrated by the low amounts of total extractable organic compounds, low percentages of hydrocarbons, and the pattern and composition of nonaromatic hydrocarbons. The observed reflectance of huminite and vitrinite particles (between 0.4% and 0.5% Ro at bottom-hole depth of 632 m) is consistent with this interpretation. Several geochemical parameters indicate, however, a rapid increase in the maturation of organic matter with depth of burial. This appears to result from the relatively high heat flow observed at Site 511. If we relate the level of maturation of the black shales at the bottom of Hole 511 to their present shallow depth of burial, they appear rather mature. On the basis of comparisons with other sedimentary basins of a known geothermal history, a somewhat higher paleotemperature gradient and/or additional overburden are required to give the observed maturity at shallow depth. A comparison with contemporaneous sediments of DSDP Site 361, Cape Basin, which was the basin adjacent and to the north of the Falkland Plateau during the early stages of the South Atlantic Ocean, demonstrates differences in sedimentological features and in the nature of sedimentary organic matter. We interpret these differences to be the result of the different geological settings for Sites 361 and 511.

Organic geochemistry and sedimentology of lower to mid-Cretaceous at DSDP Leg 77 Holes

Analyses of 40 carbonate core samples - 27 from Site 535, 12 from Site 540, and 1 from Site 538A - have confirmed many of the findings of the Shipboard Scientific Party. The samples, all but one Early to mid-Cretaceous in age (Berriasian to Cenomanian), reflect sequences of cyclically anoxic and oxic depositional environments. They are moderately to very dark colored, dominantly planar-parallel, laminated lime mudstones. Most show the effects of intense mechanical compaction. Visual kerogen characteristics and conventional Rock-Eval parameters indicate that these deep basinal carbonates contain varying mixtures of thermally immature kerogen derived from both marine and terrigenous precursors. However, variations in kerogen chemistry are evident upon analysis of the pyrolysis mass spectral data in conjunction with the other geochemical analyses. Particularly diagnostic is the reduction index, Rl, a measure of H2S produced during pyrolysis. Total organic carbon, TOC, ranges from 0.6 to 6.6%, with an overall average of 2.4%. Average TOCs for these fine-grained mudstones are: late Eocene 2.5% (1 sample), Cenomanian 2.2% (6), Albian 2.0% (10), Aptian 1.3% (1), Barremian-Hauterivian 2.8% (11), late Valanginian 4.8% (3), Berriasian-early Valanginian 1.6% (7). Most of the carbonates have source-potential ratings of fair to very good of predominantly oil-prone to mixed kerogen, with only a few gas-prone samples. The ratings correlate well with the inferred depositional environments, i.e., whether oxic or anoxic. Several new organic-geochemical parameters, especially Rl, based on pyrolysis mass spectrometry of powdered whole-rock samples, support this view. Tar from fractures in laminated to bioturbated limestones of Unit IV (late Valanginian) at 535-58-4, 19-20 cm (530 m sub-bottom) appears to be mature, biodegraded, and of migrated rather than on site indigenous origin.

Inorganic and organic geochemistry and sediment descriptions at DSDP Hole 93-603B

About one hundred samples of sediments and rocks recovered in Hole 603B were analyzed for type, abundance, and isotopic composition of organic matter, using a combination of Rock-Eval pyrolysis, C-H-N-S elemental analysis, and isotope-ratio mass spectrometry. Concentrations of major, minor, and trace inorganic elements were determined with a combination of X-ray fluorescence and induction-coupled plasma spectrometry. The oldest strata recovered in Hole 603B (lithologic Unit V) consist of interbedded light-colored limestones and marlstones, and black calcareous claystones of Neocomian age. The inorganic and organic geochemical results suggest a very terrigenous aspect to the black claystones. The organic geochemical results indicate that the limestones and marlstones contain a mixture of highly degraded marine and terrestrial organic matter. Comparison of the Neocomian carbonates at Site 603 with those on the other side of the North Atlantic, off Northwest Africa at Site 367, shows that the organic matter at Site 367 contains more marine organic matter, as indicated by higher pyrolysis hydrogen indices and lighter values of d13C. Comparison of inorganic geochemical results for the carbonate lithologies at Site 603 with those for carbonate lithologies at Site 367 suggests that the Site 603 carbonates may contain clastic material from both North American and African sources. The black claystones at Site 603, on the other hand, probably were derived almost entirely from North American clastic sources. Lithologic Unit IV overlying the Neocomian carbonates, consists of interbedded red, green, and black claystones. The black claystones at Site 603 contain more than ten times the organic carbon concentration of the interbedded green claystones. The average concentration of organic carbon in the black claystones (2.8%), however, is low relative to most mid-Cretaceous black claystones and shales in the Atlantic, particularly those found off Northwest Africa. The geochemical data all suggest that the organic matter in the black claystones is more abundant but generally more degraded than the organic matter in the green claystones, and that it was derived mainly from terrestrial sources and deposited in oxygenated bottom waters. The increased percentage of black claystone beds in the upper Cenomanian section, and the presence of more hydrogen-rich organic matter in this part of the section, probably resulted from the increased production and accumulation of marine organic matter that is represented worldwide near the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary in deep-sea and land sections. A few upper Cenomanian black claystone samples that have hydrogen indices > 150 also contain particularly high concentrations of V and Zn. Most samples of black claystone, however, are not particularly metal-rich compared with other black claystones and shales. Compared with red claystones from lithologic Unit IV, the green and black claystones are enriched in many trace transition elements, especially V, Zn, Cu, Co, and Pb. The main difference between the "carbonaceous" claystones of lithologic Unit IV and "variegated" or "multicolored" claystones of the overlying Upper Cretaceous to lower Tertiary Unit III is the absence of black claystone beds. As observed at several other sites (105 and 386), the multicolored claystones at Site 603 are somewhat enriched in several trace transition elements-especially Cu, Ni, and Cr-relative to most deep-sea clays. The multicolored claystones are not enriched in Fe and Mn, and therefore are not "metalliferous" sediments in the sense of those found at several locations in the eastern Pacific. The source of the slightly elevated concentrations of transition metals in the multicolored claystones probably is upward advection and diffusion of metals from the black claystones of the underlying Hatteras Formation. The red, orange, and green claystone beds of lithologic Unit II (Eocene), like those of Unit III, really represent a continuation of deposition of multicolored claystone that began after the deposition of the Neocomian carbonates. The color of the few black beds that occur within this unit results from high concentrations of manganese oxide rather than high concentrations of organic matter.

Organic geochemistry of ODP Leg 107 sediments

The Rock-Eval pyrolysis of rock samples and the elemental analysis of kerogens show clear differences between Messinian black shales and Pliocene-Pleistocene sapropels recovered during ODP Leg 107. The Messinian black shales are characterized by a large variety of compositions which probably reflects a great diversity of depositional and diagenetic paleoenvironments. In contrast, the Pliocene-Pleistocene sapropels, occurring as discrete layers in nannofossil oozes barren of organic carbon, constitute a rather homogeneous group in terms of organic content. A considerable contribution of terrestrial organic matter in the sapropels could mean that an identical phenomenon of terrestrial input has been periodically reproduced in the basin. The maturity and the nature of the organic matter are discussed with respect to anomalous values recorded for Tmax parameter.

Swift thermal reaction norm evolution in a key coccolithopore species: Reaction norm assay data from an experiment in Kiel from December 2012 to June 2015

Temperature has a profound effect on the species composition and physiology of marine phytoplankton, a polyphyletic group of microbes responsible for half of global primary production. Here, we ask whether and how thermal reaction norms in a key calcifying species, the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, change as a result of 2.5 years of experimental evolution to a temperature about 2°C below its upper thermal limit. Replicate experimental populations derived from a single genotype isolated from Norwegian coastal waters were grown at two temperatures for 2.5 years before assessing thermal responses at 6 temperatures ranging from 15 to 26°C, with pCO2 (400/1100/2200 ?atm) as a fully factorial additional factor. The two selection temperatures (15°/26.3°C) led to a marked divergence of thermal reaction norms. Optimal growth temperatures were 0.7°C higher in experimental populations selected at 26.3°C than those selected at 15.0°C. An additional negative effect of high pCO2 on maximal growth rate (8% decrease relative to lowest level) was observed. Finally, the maximum persistence temperature (Tmax) differed by 1-3°C between experimental treatments, as a result of an interaction between pCO2 and the temperature selection. Taken together, we demonstrate that several attributes of thermal reaction norms in phytoplankton may change faster than the predicted progression of ocean warming.

Responses of marine benthic microalgae to elevated CO2

Increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are causing a rise in pCO2 concentrations in the ocean surface and lowering pH. To predict the effects of these changes, we need to improve our understanding of the responses of marine primary producers since these drive biogeochemical cycles and profoundly affect the structure and function of benthic habitats. The effects of increasing CO2 levels on the colonisation of artificial substrata by microalgal assemblages (periphyton) were examined across a CO2 gradient off the volcanic island of Vulcano (NE Sicily). We show that periphyton communities altered significantly as CO2 concentrations increased. CO2 enrichment caused significant increases in chlorophyll a concentrations and in diatom abundance although we did not detect any changes in cyanobacteria. SEM analysis revealed major shifts in diatom assemblage composition as CO2 levels increased. The responses of benthic microalgae to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are likely to have significant ecological ramifications for coastal systems.

Future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows the possible future situations 50 years from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980-2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman- Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, considering the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly). The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11%) and 55 mm (5%) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin?s crops

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin’s crops

A theoretical consideration of the parameters of the Max Min Ant System

In this thesis we will discuss the setting of the parameters of the Max-Min Ant System. In the literature it is possible to find theoretical and practical considerations of these parameters, nevertheless it seems that they have not been studied in a joint manner. We propose a theoretical study of the relationship between them, giving the user some further knowledge at the time of setting the algorithm's parameters and some new idea are proposed. In particular, the number of ants is studied in more detail. Then we will study the settings of the Tmax and Tmin in a way which is diferent from the most commonly used technique, taking in consideration theoretical as well as experimental problems. Finally, some experiments are shown that demonstrate the validity of our proposals.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.

Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain

Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will affect summer crops in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to obtain projections of the impacts of rising temperatures, and of higher frequency of extreme events on irrigated maize, and to evaluate some adaptation strategies. The study was conducted at several locations in Andalusia using the CERES-Maize crop model, previously calibrated/validated with local experimental datasets. The simulated climate consisted of projections from regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; these were corrected for daily temperature and precipitation with regard to the E-OBS observational dataset. These bias-corrected projections were used with the CERES-Maize model to generate future impacts. Crop model results showed a decrease in maize yield by the end of the 21st century from 6 to 20%, a decrease of up to 25% in irrigation water requirements, and an increase in irrigation water productivity of up to 22%, due to earlier maturity dates and stomatal closure caused by CO2 increase. When adaptation strategies combining earlier sowing dates and cultivar changes were considered, impacts were compensated, and maize yield increased up to 14%, compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), with similar reductions in crop irrigation water requirements. Effects of extreme maximum temperatures rose to 40% at the end of the 21st century, compared with the baseline. Adaptation resulted in an overall reduction in extreme Tmax damages in all locations, with the exception of Granada, where losses were limited to 8%.

Impacto do pH final na maciez do músculo Longissimus lumborum de animais zebuínos: mudanças estruturais de proteínas da carne crua e cozida durante a maturação

O objetivo do presente trabalho foi determinar a força de cisalhamento Warner-Bratzler do músculo Longissimus lumborum de animais zebuínos machos inteiros (Bos indicus) durante o período de maturação, nas faixas de pH final (pHf 48 horas post mortem) normal (pH entre 5,5 e 5,8) e anormal (pH entre 5,81 e 6,19) e temperaturas internas de cozimento. Concomitante com a avaliação de força de cisalhamento, foram avaliadas também a degradação da desmina e troponina T, o comprimento do sarcômero, o teor de colágeno total e solúvel, as temperaturas máximas de desnaturação das proteínas e a morfologia geral de agregação das fibras do músculo no cozimento. A degradação da desmina e troponina T foi maior no pHf normal, aparecendo produtos de degradação a partir do dia 7 nessa faixa de pHf. Não houve diferenças nos valores de comprimento do sarcômero, descartando-se assim, a contribuição desse parâmetro sobre a temperatura máxima de desnaturação (Tmáx) das proteínas, determinada utilizando calorímetro exploratório diferencial (DSC). Similarmente, não foram encontradas diferenças para os teores de colágeno total e solúvel, e os valores de colágeno total foram baixos, sugerindo que sua contribuição na segunda transição térmica e nos valores de força de cisalhamento foi mínima. As Tmáx1 e Tmáx2, correspondentes à desnaturação da meromiosina leve e pesada, respectivamente, foram menores no pHf normal, mas o efeito foi maior para a Tmáx2. A Tmáx3 da actina e titina aumentou até 14 dias post mortem na faixa de pHf normal, e posteriormente diminuiu significativamente após 21 dias, sugerindo possível degradação dessas proteínas nesse período de dias. Não foram encontradas diferenças nos valores de Tmáx no pHf anormal, em todos os dias post mortem, o que sugere a contribuição de um possível mecanismo de proteção que estabiliza as miofibrilas no aquecimento. Houve maior agregação das fibras do músculo no pHf normal nas temperaturas internas de cozimento de 65 e 80°C, provavelmente devido à maior desnaturação térmica das miofibrilas. Os valores de força de cisalhamento foram maiores com o aumento da temperatura interna de cozimento, devido ao aumento da desnaturação térmica das miofibrilas do músculo. Independente da temperatura interna de cozimento, os valores de força de cisalhamento foram altos em quase todos os dias post mortem para ambas as faixas de pHf, o que sugere a necessidade de utilizar métodos físicos ou químicos para aumentar a maciez do músculo Longissimus lumborum de animais zebuínos.

Organic properties of sediments and amino acids in iterstitial waters of ODP Holes 111-677A and 111-678B

The basement at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 677 and 678 originated from the Galapagos spreading center of the Costa Rica Rift and has moved about 200 km over the last 6 m.y. (Fig. 1) (Shipboard Scientific Party, 1987, 1988; Scientific Drilling Party, 1987). Sediments about 300 m thick cover basement so young that basal sediments at Sites 677 and 678 have been reheated up to 60?-70?C at Site 677 and altered to limestone and/or chert (Shipboard Scientific Party, 1988). Sediments from both sites indicate (1) a high sedimentation rate (about 48 m/m.y.) and (2) biogenic silica and carbonate as the main constituents of sediments (Table 1) (Shipboard Scientific Party, 1988). Heatflow observations and measurements of interstitial water chemistry around the sites show that Site 677 is in a lower heatflow zone (166 mW/m**2; 1°12.14'N, 83°44.22'W) whereas Site 678 is located in a zone of higher heat flow (250 mW/m**2; 1°13.01'N, 83°43.39'W) (Langseth et al., 1988; Shipboard Scientific Party, 1988). In the flank hydrothermal systems, circulating solution is moving upward through the sedimentary column in zones of higher heat flow while it is moving downward in zones of lower heat flow (Anderson and Skilbeck, 1981). The chemistry of the interstitial waters is modified by several processes such as (1) diagenetic reactions and (2) advective and (3) diffusive transports of dissolved constituents. Analyses of Ca2+ and Mg2+ in interstitial waters from Sites 677 and 678 show that their profiles are mainly controlled by advective transport (Shipboard Scientific Party, 1988). In contrast, the interstitial-water profiles for NH4+, Si, and PO4[3-] are highly affected by reactions in the sediments. Site 677 offers a good opportunity to investigate amino acids in the interstitial waters because sediments of similar compositions have been deposited at constant rates of sedimentation. There are few previous works on amino acid distributions in interstitial waters (Henrichs and Parrington, 1979; Michaelis et al., 1982; Henrichs et al., 1984; Henrichs and Farrington, 1987; Ishizuka et al., 1988). In this chapter, we report (1) Rock-Eval analysis and (2) the composition of total hydrolyzable and dissolved free amino acids (THAA and DFAA, respectively) in the interstitial waters. Our objectives are to discuss (1) the possible origin of organic materials, (2) the characteristics of THAA and DFAA, and (3) their relationships in interstitial waters.

Organic geochemistry on sediment profiles from the Arctic Ocean

During the ARCTIC '91-Expedition with RV 'Polarstern', several Multicorer and Kastenlot-cores were recovered along a profile crossing the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean. The investigated cores consist mainly of clayey-silty sediments, and some units with a higher sand content. In this thesis, detailed sedimentological and organic-geochemical investigations were performed. In part, the near surface sediments were AMS-14C dated making it possible to Interpret the results of the organic-geochemical investigations in terms of climatic changes (isotopic stage 2 to the Holocene). The more or less absence of foraminifers within the long cores prevented the development of an oxygen isotope stratigraphy. Only the results of core PS2174-5 from the Amundsen-Basin could be discussed in terms of the climatic change that could be dated back to oxygen isotope stage 7. Detailed organic-geochemical investigations in the central Arctic Ocean are rare. Therefore, several different organic-geochemical methods were used to obtain a wide range of data for the Interpretation of the organic matter. The high organic carbon content of the surface sediments is derived from a high input of terrigenous organic matter. The terrigenous organic material is most likely entrained within the sea-ice On the Siberian shelves and released during ice-drift over the Arctic Ocean. Other factors such as iceberg-transport and turbidites are also responsible for the high input of terrigenous organic matter. Due to the more or less closed sea-ice Cover, the Arctic Ocean is known as a low productivity system. A model shows, that only 2 % of the organic matter in central Arctic Ocean sediments is of a marine origin. The influence of the West-Spitsbergen current increases the marine organic matter content to 16 %. Short chain n-alkanes (C17 and C19) can be used as a marker of marine productivity in the Arctic Ocean. Higher contents of short chain n-alkanes exist in surface sediments of the Lomonosov-Ridge and the Makarov-Basin, indicating a higher marine productivity caused by a reduced sea-ice Cover. The Beaufort-Gyre and Transpolar-Drift drift Patterns could be responsible for the lower sea-ice distribution in this region. The sediments of Stage 2 and Stage 3 in this region are also dominated by a higher content of short chain-nalkanes indicating a comparable ice-drift Pattern during that time. The content and composition of organic carbon in the sediments of core PS2174-5 reflect glaciallinterglacial changes. Interglacial stages 7 and 5e show a low organic carbon content (C 0,5 %) and, as indicated by high hydrogen-indices, low CIN-ratios, higher content of n-alkanes (C17 and C19) and a higher opal content, a higher marine productivity. In the Holocene, a high content of foraminifers, coccoliths, ostracodes, and sponge spicules indicate higher surface-water productivity. Nevertheless, the low hydrogenindices reveal a high content of terrigenous organic matter. Therefore, the Holocene seems to be different from interglacials 7 and 5e. During the glacial periods (stages 6, upper 5, and 4), TOC-values are significantly higher (0.7 to 1.3 %). In addition, low hydrogen-indices, high CIN-ratios, low short chain n-alkanes and opal contents provide evidence for a higher input of terrigenous organic matter and reduced marine productivity. The high lignin content in core sections with high TOC-contents, substantiates the high input of terrigenous organic matter. Changes in the content and composition of the organic carbon is believed to vary with the fluctuations in sea-level and sea-ice coverage.