Multimodal Investment Analysis Methodology, Phase One: The Conceptual Model, 1998

The purpose of this project is to develop an investment analysis model that integrates the capabilities of four types of analysis for use in evaluating interurban transportation system improvements. The project will also explore the use of new data warehousing and mining techniques to design the types of databases required for supporting such a comprehensive transportation model. The project consists of four phases. The first phase, which is documented in this report, involves development of the conceptual foundation for the model. Prior research is reviewed in Chapter 1, which is composed of three major sections providing demand modeling background information for passenger transportation, transportation of freight (manufactured products and supplies), and transportation of natural resources and agricultural commodities. Material from the literature on geographic information systems makes up Chapter 2. Database models for the national and regional economies and for the transportation and logistics network are conceptualized in Chapter 3. Demand forecasting of transportation service requirements is introduced in Chapter 4, with separate sections for passenger transportation, freight transportation, and transportation of natural resources and commodities. Characteristics and capacities of the different modes, modal choices, and route assignments are discussed in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a general discussion of the economic impacts and feedback of multimodal transportation activities and facilities.

The business model ontology a proposition in a design science approach

The goal of this dissertation is to find and provide the basis for a managerial tool that allows a firm to easily express its business logic. The methodological basis for this work is design science, where the researcher builds an artifact to solve a specific problem. In this case the aim is to provide an ontology that makes it possible to explicit a firm's business model. In other words, the proposed artifact helps a firm to formally describe its value proposition, its customers, the relationship with them, the necessary intra- and inter-firm infrastructure and its profit model. Such an ontology is relevant because until now there is no model that expresses a company's global business logic from a pure business point of view. Previous models essentially take an organizational or process perspective or cover only parts of a firm's business logic. The four main pillars of the ontology, which are inspired by management science and enterprise- and processmodeling, are product, customer interface, infrastructure and finance. The ontology is validated by case studies, a panel of experts and managers. The dissertation also provides a software prototype to capture a company's business model in an information system. The last part of the thesis consists of a demonstration of the value of the ontology in business strategy and Information Systems (IS) alignment. Structure of this thesis: The dissertation is structured in nine parts: Chapter 1 presents the motivations of this research, the research methodology with which the goals shall be achieved and why this dissertation present a contribution to research. Chapter 2 investigates the origins, the term and the concept of business models. It defines what is meant by business models in this dissertation and how they are situated in the context of the firm. In addition this chapter outlines the possible uses of the business model concept. Chapter 3 gives an overview of the research done in the field of business models and enterprise ontologies. Chapter 4 introduces the major contribution of this dissertation: the business model ontology. In this part of the thesis the elements, attributes and relationships of the ontology are explained and described in detail. Chapter 5 presents a case study of the Montreux Jazz Festival which's business model was captured by applying the structure and concepts of the ontology. In fact, it gives an impression of how a business model description based on the ontology looks like. Chapter 6 shows an instantiation of the ontology into a prototype tool: the Business Model Modelling Language BM2L. This is an XML-based description language that allows to capture and describe the business model of a firm and has a large potential for further applications. Chapter 7 is about the evaluation of the business model ontology. The evaluation builds on literature review, a set of interviews with practitioners and case studies. Chapter 8 gives an outlook on possible future research and applications of the business model ontology. The main areas of interest are alignment of business and information technology IT/information systems IS and business model comparison. Finally, chapter 9 presents some conclusions.

The Omega model: from bankruptcy to occupation times in the red

Ruin occurs the first time when the surplus of a company or an institution is negative. In the Omega model, it is assumed that even with a negative surplus, the company can do business as usual until bankruptcy occurs. The probability of bankruptcy at a point of time only depends on the value of the negative surplus at that time. Under the assumption of Brownian motion for the surplus, the expected discounted value of a penalty at bankruptcy is determined, and hence the probability of bankruptcy. There is an intrinsic relation between the probability of no bankruptcy and an exposure random variable. In special cases, the distribution of the total time the Brownian motion spends below zero is found, and the Laplace transform of the integral of the negative part of the Brownian motion is expressed in terms of the Airy function of the first kind.

What interventions facilitate client progress through the assimilation model? A task analysis of interventions in the psychodynamic treatment of depression.

A variation of task analysis was used to build an empirical model of how therapists may facilitate client assimilation process, described in the Assimilation of Problematic Experiences Scale. A rational model was specified and considered in light of an analysis of therapist in-session performances (N = 117) drawn from six inpatient therapies for depression. The therapist interventions were measured by the Comprehensive Psychotherapeutic Interventions Rating Scale. Consistent with the rational model, confronting interventions were particularly useful in helping clients elaborate insight. However, rather than there being a small number of progress-related interventions at lower levels of assimilation, therapists' use of interventions was broader than hypothesized and drew from a wide range of therapeutic approaches. Concerning the higher levels of assimilation, there was insufficient data to allow an analysis of the therapist's progress-related interventions.

The transtheoretical model in weight management: Validation of the Processes of Change Questionnaire

Objective: The processes of change implied in weight management remain unclear. The present study aimed to identify these processes by validating a questionnaire designed to assess processes of change (the P-Weight) in line with the transtheoretical model. The relationship of processes of change with stages of change and other external variables is also examined. Methods: Participants were 723 people from community and clinical settings in Barcelona. Their mean age was 32.07 (SD = 14.55) years; most of them were women (75.0%), and their mean BMI was 26.47 (SD = 8.52) kg/m2. They all completed the P-Weight and the stages of change questionnaire (SWeight), both applied to weight management, as well as two subscales from the Eating Disorders Inventory-2 and Eating Attitudes Test-40 questionnaires about the concern with dieting. Results: A 34-item version of the PWeight was obtained by means of a refinement process. The principal components analysis applied to half of the sample identified four processes of change. A confirmatory factor analysis was then carried out with the other half of the sample, revealing that the model of four freely correlated first-order factors showed the best fit (GFI = 0.988, AGFI = 0.986, NFI = 0.986, and SRMR = 0.0559). Corrected item-total correlations (0.322-0.865) and Cronbach"s alpha coefficients (0.781-0.960) were adequate. The relationship between the P-Weight and the S-Weight and the concern with dieting measures from other questionnaires supported the validity of the scale. Conclusion: The study identified processes of change involved in weight management and reports the adequate psychometric properties of the P-Weight. It also reveals the relationship between processes and stages of change and other external variables.

The transtheoretical model and obesity: a bibliometric study

The Transtheoretical Model of behaviour change is currently one of the most promising models in terms of understanding and promoting behaviour change related to the acquisition of healthy living habits. By means of a bibliographic search of papers adopting a TTM approach to obesity, the present bibliometric study enables the scientific output in this field to be evaluated. The results obtained reveal a growing interest in applying this model to both the treatment of obesity and its prevention. Otherwise, author and journal outputs fit the models proposed by Lotka and Bradford, respectively.

Neutron skin thickness in the droplet model with surface width dependence: Indications of softness of the nuclear symmetry energy

We analyze the neutron skin thickness in finite nuclei with the droplet model and effective nuclear interactions. The ratio of the bulk symmetry energy J to the so-called surface stiffness coefficient Q has in the droplet model a prominent role in driving the size of neutron skins. We present a correlation between the density derivative of the nuclear symmetry energy at saturation and the J/Q ratio. We emphasize the role of the surface widths of the neutron and proton density profiles in the calculation of the neutron skin thickness when one uses realistic mean-field effective interactions. Next, taking as experimental baseline the neutron skin sizes measured in 26 antiprotonic atoms along the mass table, we explore constraints arising from neutron skins on the value of the J/Q ratio. The results favor a relatively soft symmetry energy at subsaturation densities. Our predictions are compared with the recent constraints derived from other experimental observables. Though the various extractions predict different ranges of values, one finds a narrow window L∼45-75 MeV for the coefficient L that characterizes the density derivative of the symmetry energy that is compatible with all the different empirical indications.

Visualizing Business Model Evolution with the Business Model Canvas: Concept and Tool

The Business Model Canvas (BMC) assists in the design of companies' business models. As strategies evolve so too does the business model. Unfortunately, each BMC is a standalone representation. Thus, there is a need to be able to describe transformation from one version of a business model to the next as well as to visualize these operations. To address this issue, and to contribute to computer-assisted business model design, we propose a set of design principles for business model evolution. We also demonstrate a tool that can assist in the creation and navigation of business model versions in a visual and user-friendly way

Immune Memory and Exhaustion: Clinically Relevant Lessons from the LCMV Model.

The development of dysfunctional or exhausted T cells is characteristic of immune responses to chronic viral infections and cancer. Exhausted T cells are defined by reduced effector function, sustained upregulation of multiple inhibitory receptors, an altered transcriptional program and perturbations of normal memory development and homeostasis. This review focuses on (a) illustrating milestone discoveries that led to our present understanding of T cell exhaustion, (b) summarizing recent developments in the field, and (c) identifying new challenges for translational research. Exhausted T cells are now recognized as key therapeutic targets in human infections and cancer. Much of our knowledge of the clinically relevant process of exhaustion derives from studies in the mouse model of Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infection. Studies using this model have formed the foundation for our understanding of human T cell memory and exhaustion. We will use this example to discuss recent advances in our understanding of T cell exhaustion and illustrate the value of integrated mouse and human studies and will emphasize the benefits of bi-directional mouse-to-human and human-to-mouse research approaches.

Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields: The Fed Model Approach

Prediction of the stock market valuation is a common interest to all market participants. Theoretically sound market valuation can be achieved by discounting future earnings of equities to present. Competing valuation models seek to find variables that affect the equity market valuation in a way that the market valuation can be explained and also variables that could be used to predict market valuation. In this paper we test the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, forward looking earnings and long-term government bond yields. We test this so-called Fed model in a long- and short-term time series analysis. In order to test the dynamics of the relationship, we use the cointegration framework. The data used in this study spans over four decades of various market conditions between 1964-2007, using data from United States. The empirical results of our analysis do not give support for the Fed model. We are able to show that the long-term government bonds do not play statistically significant role in this relationship. The effect of forward earnings yield on the stock market prices is significant and thus we suggest the use of standard valuation ratios when trying to predict the future paths of equity prices. Also, changes in the long-term government bond yields do not have significant short-term impact on stock prices.

Tackling Societal Challenges Related to Ageing and Transport Transition: An Introduction to Philosophical Principles of Causation Adapted to the Biopsychosocial Model

In geriatrics, driving cessation is addressed within the biopsychosocial model. This has broadened the scope of practitioners, not only in terms of assessing fitness to drive, but also by helping to maintain social engagements and provide support for transport transition. Causes can be addressed at different levels by adapting medication, improving physical health, modifying behaviour, adapting lifestyle, or bringing changes to the environment. This transdisciplinary approach requires an understanding of how different disciplines are linked to each other. This article reviews the philosophical principles of causality between fields and provides a framework for understanding causality within the biopsychosocial model. Understanding interlevel constraints should help practitioners overcome their differences, and favor transversal approaches to driving cessation.

Towards open access networks – prototyping with the Lappeenranta model

The provision of Internet access to large numbers has traditionally been under the control of operators, who have built closed access networks for connecting customers. As the access network (i.e. the last mile to the customer) is generally the most expensive part of the network because of the vast amount of cable required, many operators have been reluctant to build access networks in rural areas. There are problems also in urban areas, as incumbent operators may use various tactics to make it difficult for competitors to enter the market. Open access networking, where the goal is to connect multiple operators and other types of service providers to a shared network, changes the way in which networks are used. This change in network structure dismantles vertical integration in service provision and enables true competition as no service provider can prevent others fromcompeting in the open access network. This thesis describes the development from traditional closed access networks towards open access networking and analyses different types of open access solution. The thesis introduces a new open access network approach (The Lappeenranta Model) in greater detail. The Lappeenranta Model is compared to other types of open access networks. The thesis shows that end users and service providers see local open access and services as beneficial. In addition, the thesis discusses open access networking in a multidisciplinary fashion, focusing on the real-world challenges of open access networks.

Quantum dynamics of the parabolic model

Kvanttimekaniikan teoriassa suljettuja, ympäristöstään eristettyjä systeemejä koskevat tulokset ovat hyvin tunnettuja. Eräs tärkeä erityispiirre tällaisille systeemeille on, että niiden aikakehitys on unitaarista. Oletus siitä, että systeemi on suljettu, on osaltaan tietysti vain yksinkertaistus. Käytännössä kaikki kvanttimekaaniset systeemit vuorovaikuttavat ympäristönsä kanssa ja tästä johtuen niiden dynamiikka monimutkaistuu oleellisesti. Kuitenkin tietyissä tapauksissa systeemin aikakehitys voidaan ratkaista, ainakin approksimatiivisesti. Tärkeimpinä esimerkkeinä on ympäristön joko nopea tai erittäin hidas muutos kvanttisysteemin ominaiseen aikaskaalaan verrattuna. Näistä erityisesti jälkimmäinen on käyttökelpoinen oletus monissa fysikaalisissa tilanteissa. Tällöin voidaan suorittaa niin sanottu adiabaattinen approksimaatio. Sen mukaan systeemi, joka on aikakehityksen generoivan Hamiltonin operaattorin ominaistilassa, pysyy vastaavassa ominaistilassa ympäristön muuttuessa äärettömän hitaasti, mikäli systeemin eri energiatasot eivät leikkaa toisiaan. Todellisissa tilanteissa muutos ei tietenkään voi olla äärettömän hidasta ja myös energiatasojen leikkaukset ovat mahdollisia, jolloin tapahtuu transitio eri ominaistilojen välillä. Energiatasojen leikkauksilla on oleellisia vaikutuksia erittäin monissa fysikaalisissa prosesseissa ja niitä kuvaamaan on luotu monia malleja kvanttimekaniikan alkuajoista lähtien aina tähän päivään saakka. Nykyinen teknologinen kehitys on avannut uudenlaisen mahdollisuuden ilmiön kokeelliseen varmentamiseen ja hyödyntämiseen. Tämän vuoksi kyseisten mallien dynamiikan ja erityisesti energiatasojen useiden peräkkäisten leikkausten aiheuttamien koherenssi-ilmiöiden selvittäminen on tärkeää. Tässä työssä käsitellään kvanttimekaanisia kaksitasosysteemejä, joissa esiintyy energiatasojen leikkauksia sekä niiden pitkän aikavälin dynamiikkaa. Tutkielmassa perehdytään tarkemmin kahteen tiettyyn malliin. Näistä ensimmäinen, Landau-Zener -malli, on tunnetuin ja sovelluksissa käytetyin malli. Kuitenkin erityisen mielenkiinnon kohteena on niin kutsuttu parabolinen malli, jolle johdetaan eri approksimaatioita käyttäen asymptoottiset transitiotodennäköisyydet eri tilojen välille. Näitä verrataan numeerisiin tuloksiin.

The Fed Model: International Analysis

The Fed model is a widely used market valuation model. It is often used only on market analysis of the S&P 500 index as a shorthand measure for the attractiveness of equity, and as a timing device for allocating funds between equity and bonds. The Fed model assumes a fixed relationship between bond yield and earnings yield. This relationship is often assumed to be true in market valuation. In this paper we test the Fed model from historical perspective on the European markets. The markets of the United States are also includedfor comparison. The purpose of the tests is to determine if the Fed model and the underlying assumptions come true on different markets. The various tests are made on time-series data ranging from the year 1973 to the end of the year 2008. The statistical methods used are regressions analysis, cointegration analysis and Granger causality. The empirical results do not give strong support for the Fed model. The underlying relationships assumed by the Fed model are statistically not valid in most of the markets examined and therefore the model is not valid in valuation purposes generally. The results vary between the different markets which gives reason to suspect the general use of the Fed model in different market conditions and in different markets.