Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Load frequency control for rural distributed generation

In rural low-voltage networks, distribution lines are usually highly resistive. When many distributed generators are connected to such lines, power sharing among them is difficult when using conventional droop control, as the real and reactive power have strong coupling with each other. A high droop gain can alleviate this problem but may lead the system to instability. To overcome4 this, two droop control methods are proposed for accurate load sharing with frequency droop controller. The first method considers no communication among the distributed generators and regulates the output voltage and frequency, ensuring acceptable load sharing. The droop equations are modified with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ration for this purpose. The second proposed method, with minimal low bandwidth communication, modifies the reference frequency of the distributed generators based on the active and reactive power flow in the lines connected to the points of common coupling. The performance of these two proposed controllers is compared with that of a controller, which includes an expensive high bandwidth communication system through time-domain simulation of a test system. The magnitude of errors in power sharing between these three droop control schemes are evaluated and tabulated.

Community engagement and groundwater investigation in a rural/peri urban basaltic aquifier system, Tamborine Mountain, South East Queensland

The Tamborine Mt area is a popular residential and tourist area in the Gold Coast hinterland, SE Qld. The 15km2 area occurs on elevated remnant Tertiary Basalts of the Beechmont Group, which comprise a number of mappable flow units originally derived from the Tweed volcanic centre to the south. The older Albert Basalt (Tertiary), which underlies the Beechmont Basalt at the southern end of the investigation area, is thought to be derived from the Focal Peak volcanic centre to the south west. The Basalts contain a locally significant ‘un-declared’ groundwater resource, which is utilised by the Tamborine Mt community for: • domestic purposes to supplement rainwater tank supplies, • commercial scale horticulture and • commercial export off-Mountain for bottled water. There is no reticulated water supply, and all waste water is treated on-site through domestic scale WTPs. Rainforest and other riparian ecosystems that attract residents and tourist dollars to the area, are also reliant on the groundwater that discharges to springs and surface streams on and around the plateau. Issues regarding a lack of compiled groundwater information, groundwater contamination, and groundwater sustainability are being investigated by QUT, utilising funding provided by the Federal Government’s ‘Caring for our Country’ programme through SEQ Catchments Ltd. The objectives of the two year project, which started in April 2009, are to: • Characterise the nature and condition of groundwater / surface water systems in the Tamborine Mountain area in terms of the issues being raised; • Engage and build capacity within the community to source local knowledge, encourage participation, raise awareness and improve understanding of the impacts of land and water use; • Develop a stand-alone 3D Visualisation model for dissemination into the community and use as a communication tool.

Repeat participation in colorectal cancer screening utilizing fecal occult blood testing : a community-based project in a rural setting

Background and Aim: To investigate participation in a second round of colorectal cancer screening using a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) in an Australian rural community, and to assess the demographic characteristics and individual perspectives associated with repeat screening. ---------- Methods: Potential participants from round 1 (50–74 years of age) were sent an intervention package and asked to return a completed FOBT (n = 3406). Doctors of participants testing positive referred to colonoscopy as appropriate. Following screening, 119 participants completed qualitative telephone interviews. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated the association between round-2 participation and other variables.---------- Results: Round-2 participation was 34.7%; the strongest predictor was participation in round 1. Repeat participants were more likely to be female; inconsistent screeners were more likely to be younger (aged 50–59 years). The proportion of positive FOBT was 12.7%, that of colonoscopy compliance was 98.6%, and the positive predictive value for cancer or adenoma of advanced pathology was 23.9%. Reasons for participation included testing as a precautionary measure or having family history/friends with colorectal cancer; reasons for non-participation included apathy or doctors’ advice against screening.---------- Conclusion: Participation was relatively low and consistent across rounds. Unless suitable strategies are identified to overcome behavioral trends and/or to screen out ineligible participants, little change in overall participation rates can be expected across rounds.

User characteristics of transit oriented developments : the case of Kelvin Grove Urban Village

Transit oriented developments are high density mixed use developments located within short and easily walkable distance of a major transit centre. These developments are often hypothesised as a means of enticing a mode shift from the private car to sustainable transport modes such as, walking, cycling and public transport. However, it is important to gather evidence to test this hypothesis by determining the travel characteristics of transit oriented developments users. For this purpose, travel surveys were conducted for an urban transit oriented development currently under development. This chapter presents the findings from the preliminary data analysis of the travel surveys. Kelvin Grove Urban Village, a mixed use development located in Brisbane, Australia, has been selected as the case for the transit oriented developments study. Travel data for all groups of transit oriented development users ranging from students to shoppers, and residents to employees were collected. Different survey instruments were used for different transit oriented development users to optimise their response rates, and the performance of these survey instruments are stated herein. The travel characteristics of transit oriented development users are reported in this chapter by explaining mode share, trip length distribution, and time of day of trip. The results of the travel survey reveal that Kelvin Grove Urban Village users use more sustainable modes of transport as compared to other Brisbane residents.

A novel load transfer scheme for peak load management in rural areas

This paper proposes a novel peak load management scheme for rural areas. The scheme transfers certain customers onto local nonembedded generators during peak load periods to alleviate network under voltage problems. This paper develops and presents this system by way of a case study in Central Queensland, Australia. A methodology is presented for determining the best location for the nonembedded generators as well as the number of generators required to alleviate network problems. A control algorithm to transfer and reconnect customers is developed to ensure that the network voltage profile remains within specification under all plausible load conditions. Finally, simulations are presented to show the performance of the system over a typical maximum daily load profile with large stochastic load variations.

Prospective bus rapid transit scenarios for pilot corridor in Dhaka

Dhaka doesn’t have a mature transport system. Lacking in institutional arrangements, policy and planning, and law enforcement, the transport system operates has developed ad hoc and is situationally problematic. Absence of proper coordination between modes, poor public transport system, inadequate pedestrian facilities, and environmental degradation justify full consideration of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Dhaka. BRT centres on sustainable transport principles. BRT is a system, which is capable to mitigate Dhaka’s transport problem if properly planned. In Strategic transport plan of Dhaka three BRT transport corridor has been proposed and BRT pre-feasibility study came up with one pilot corridor for early implementation of BRT. This paper first reviews international best practices then explores various BRT system packages and evaluates the suitability of these BRT packages by analyzing current bus service condition and physical and geometric configuration along the BRT pilot corridor. It concludes by proposing some BRT scenarios, which can be considered for further evaluation with respect to speed, delay, travel time and environmental pollution.

Risk factors for fatal crashes in rural Australia

This paper presents findings from the rural and remote road safety study, conducted in Queensland, Australia, from March 2004 till June 2007, and compares fatal crashes and non-fatal but serious crashes in respect of their environmental, vehicle and operator factors. During the study period there were 613 non-fatal crashes resulting in 684 hospitalised casualties and 119 fatal crashes resulting in 130 fatalities. Additional information from police sources was available on 103 fatal and 309 non-fatal serious crashes. Over three quarters of both fatal and hospitalised casualties were male and the median age in both groups was 34 years. Fatal crashes were more likely to involve speed, alcohol and violations of road rules and fatal crash victims were 2 and a 1/2 times more likely to be unrestrained inside the vehicle than non-fatal casualties, consistent with current international evidence. After controlling for human factors, vehicle and road conditions made a minimal contribution to the seriousness of the crash outcome. Targeted interventions to prevent fatalities on rural and remote roads should focus on reducing speed and drink driving and promoting seatbelt wearing.

Predicting single-vehicle fatal crashes for two-lane rural highways in Southeastern United States

The rural two-lane highway in the southeastern United States is frequently associated with a disproportionate number of serious and fatal crashes and as such remains a focus of considerable safety research. The Georgia Department of Transportation spearheaded a regional fatal crash analysis to identify various safety performances of two-lane rural highways and to offer guidance for identifying suitable countermeasures with which to mitigate fatal crashes. The fatal crash data used in this study were compiled from Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The database, developed for an earlier study, included 557 randomly selected fatal crashes from 1997 or 1998 or both (this varied by state). Each participating state identified the candidate crashes and performed physical or video site visits to construct crash databases with enhance site-specific information. Motivated by the hypothesis that single- and multiple-vehicle crashes arise from fundamentally different circumstances, the research team applied binary logit models to predict the probability that a fatal crash is a single-vehicle run-off-road fatal crash given roadway design characteristics, roadside environment features, and traffic conditions proximal to the crash site. A wide variety of factors appears to influence or be associated with single-vehicle fatal crashes. In a model transferability assessment, the authors determined that lane width, horizontal curvature, and ambient lighting are the only three significant variables that are consistent for single-vehicle run-off-road crashes for all study locations.

Assessing the impact of transit and personal characteristics on mode choice of TOD users

Comparison are required to understand transport benefits of Transit Oriented Developments (TODs). Mode shares of TOD users need to be understood. Accurate travel demand models for TODs are needed.

Investigation into travel modes of TOD users : impacts of personal and transit characteristics

Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) are often designed to promote the use of sustainable modes of transport and reduce car usage. This paper investigates the effect of personal and transit characteristics on travel choices of TOD users. Binary logistic regression models were developed to determine the probability of choosing sustainable modes of transport including walking, cycling and public transport. Kelvin Grove Urban Village (KGUV) located in Brisbane, Australia was chosen as case study TOD. The modal splits for employees, students, shoppers and residents showed that 47% of employees, 84% of students, 71% of shoppers and 56% of residents used sustainable modes of transport.

Estimating the latent demand for rail transit : a case study in Perth, Western Australia

This paper presents a study on estimating the latent demand for rail transit in Australian context. Based on travel mode-choice modelling, a two-stage analysis approach is proposed, namely market population identification and mode share estimation. A case study is conducted on Midland-Fremantle rail transit corridor in Perth, Western Australia. The required data mainly include journey-to-work trip data from Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 and work-purpose mode-choice model in Perth Strategic Transport Evaluation Model. The market profile is analysed, such as catchment areas, market population, mode shares, mode specific trip distributions and average trip distances. A numerical simulation is performed to test the sensitivity of the transit ridership to the change of fuel price. A corridor-level transit demand function of fuel price is thus obtained and its characteristics of elasticity are discussed. This study explores a viable approach to developing a decision-support tool for the assessment of short-term impacts of policy and operational adjustments on corridor-level demand for rail transit.

Weekly activity-travel behaviour in rural Northern Ireland : differences by context and socio-demographic

Despite a wide variation in access to goods and services between rural areas, common policy interventions are often proposed in Northern Ireland. Questions remain as to the level and form of policy differentiation that is required, if any, both within and between different rural areas. This issue is investigated in this paper through the analysis of activity-travel patterns of individuals living in two rural areas with different levels of area accessibility and area mobility. Three focus groups, 299 questionnaires and 89 activity-travel diaries for 7 days were collected for individuals from these areas. Regression analyses were employed to explore the degree to which different factors influence activity travel behaviour. The results indicate that individuals from rural areas with a higher level of accessibility are more integrated within their local community and as a result, are potentially less at risk of being excluded from society due to immobility. Differences, however, were also found between different groups within an area (e.g. non-car owning individuals who were more reliant on walking, and low-income individuals who made trips of a shorter distance). Based on the study findings and a review of existing policies, this research highlights the need to tailor policy responses to reflect the particular sets of circumstances exhibited in different areas.

Participation index : a measure to identify rural transport disadvantage?

This paper develops a composite participation index (PI) to identify patterns of transport disadvantage in space and time. It is operationalised using 157 weekly activity-travel diaries data collected from three case study areas in rural Northern Ireland. A review of activity space and travel behaviour research found that six dimensional indicators of activity spaces were typically used including the number of unique locations visited, distance travelled, area of activity spaces, frequency of activity participation, types of activity participated in, and duration of participation in order to identify transport disadvantage. A combined measure using six individual indices were developed based on the six dimensional indicators of activity spaces, by taking into account the relativity of the measures for weekdays, weekends, and for a week. Factor analyses were conducted to derive weights of these indices to form the PI measure. Multivariate analysis using general linear models of the different indicators/indices identified new patterns of transport disadvantage. The research found that: indicator based measures and index based measures are complement each other; interactions between different factors generated new patterns of transport disadvantage; and that these patterns vary in space and time. The analysis also indicates that the transport needs of different disadvantaged groups are varied.