Nagyobb kockázat, nagyobb növekedési ütem - kockázat nélkül nincs növekedés! Hozzászólás Thomas Piketty A tőke a 21. században című könyvéhez (Why are interest rates higher than growth rates? A comment on Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century)

E rövid írás aktualitását az adja, hogy nemrégen jelent meg magyarul Thomas Piketty híres könyve: A tőke a 21. században. A könyv központi gondolata, hogy az elmúlt kétszáz év átlagában a gazdaság átlagos növekedési üteme, a g jelentősen elmarad az r értékétől, vagyis a tőke átlagos hozamától. A nevezetes r>g összefüggés egyik lehetséges oka, hogy az r szórása nagyobb, mint a g-é. A nagyobb szórás mögött nagyobb kockázati motívumok állhatnak. Ebből következően a Piketty által javasolt adókat jelentős mértékben a pénzügyi tőkének kellene viselnie. ____ The immediacy of this note derives from the fact that Picatty's famous Capital in the Twenty-First Century has been recently published in Hungarian. The central issue in the book is that taking the average of 200 years, the mean growth rate g is lower than the average return on capital r. One possible explanation of this famous r > g inequality may be that the standard deviation of r is greater than that of g because of the greater appetite for risk. The implication to draw from this is that financial capital should bear the majority of the taxes being suggested by Piketty.

A bizalmat befolyásoló tényezők vizsgálata az üzleti kapcsolatokban (Affects of Transaction cost and Social Exchange Constructs on trust In supply chain relationship)

Az üzleti célú kapcsolatok vizsgálatakor legtöbbször felmerül a bizalom fogalma is, amellyel először a szociálpszichológia és a szociológia foglalkozott. A szerző cikkében azzal foglalkozik, hogy milyen tényezők befolyásolják a bizalmat az üzleti kapcsolatokban. Ezért magyarországi szervezeteket (elsősorban üzleti vállalkozásokat) kérdezett meg kvantitatív módszer alkalmazásával. Ez az empirikus kutatás igyekszik a bizalom lehető legtöbb tényezőit összegyűjteni, ahol a kérdőívben a válaszolók egyik létező – vevői vagy beszállítói – kapcsolatukra gondolva válaszoltak a bizalmon túl a partner hírnevére, az észlelt elégedettségre és konfliktusra, az információcserére, a lecserélhetőségre, valamint a kapcsolatspecifikus beruházásokra vonatkozóan. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy egyik változó sem jelent kizárólagos befolyásoló erőt, hanem közösen alakítják ki a bizalom adott szintjét. _______ This article is based on the assumption that trust promotes commitment between partners in the supply chain and improves the chances of return on supply chain success. In contrast, a lack of trust between them often increases transaction costs and results in inefficiency. The results of this research, based on multi-country surveys with 729 returns from France, Hungary, Korea, Tunisia and the United States on supply chain professionals, reveals a strong affect of transaction cost constructs (TCC) (asset specificity and behavioral uncertainty) and social exchange constructs (SEC) (replaceability, perceived satisfaction, partner reputation, and perceived conflict) on trust-commitment variables in partnership based supply chain relationships. This paper employed a structural equation model to extract information from the survey data. Among the findings, the research indicates that a firm’s trustcommitment in dealing with their supply chain partnership is highly associated with not only transaction cost, but more so with social exchange variables. This study may open a new research avenue in that there is another construct, SEC, beside TSC that influences the degree of trust and commitment.

Imagined intergroup contact facilitates intercultural communication for college students on academic exchange programs

Imagined intergroup contact (Crisp & Turner, 2009) is a new cognitive intervention designed to improve intergroup relations. In two studies, we examined whether it could also facilitate intercultural communication among international students and host country natives engaged in a college exchange program. In Study 1, international students who had recently arrived in Italy and participated in an imagined contact session displayed increased self-disclosure toward, and improved evaluation of, host country natives. In Study 2, Italian students mentally simulated positive contact with an unknown native from the host country prior to leaving for the exchange. Results from an online questionnaire administered on their return (on average, more than 7 months after the imagery task) revealed that participants who imagined contact reported spending more time with natives during the stay and enhanced outgroup evaluation, via reduced intergroup anxiety. Implications for enhancing the quality and effectiveness of college student exchange programs are discussed.

Essays on the Economics of Higher Education

At least since the seminal works of Jacob Mincer, labor economists have sought to understand how students make higher education investment decisions. Mincer’s original work seeks to understand how students decide how much education to accrue; subsequent work by various authors seeks to understand how students choose where to attend college, what field to major in, and whether to drop out of college.

Broadly speaking, this rich sub-field of literature contributes to society in two ways: First, it provides a better understanding of important social behaviors. Second, it helps policymakers anticipate the responses of students when evaluating various policy reforms.

While research on the higher education investment decisions of students has had an enormous impact on our understanding of society and has shaped countless education policies, students are only one interested party in the higher education landscape. In the jargon of economists, students represent only the `demand side’ of higher education---customers who are choosing options from a set of available alternatives. Opposite students are instructors and administrators who represent the `supply side’ of higher education---those who decide which options are available to students.

For similar reasons, it is also important to understand how individuals on the supply side of education make decisions: First, this provides a deeper understanding of the behaviors of important social institutions. Second, it helps policymakers anticipate the responses of instructors and administrators when evaluating various reforms. However, while there is substantial literature understanding decisions made on the demand side of education, there is far less attention paid to decisions on the supply side of education.

This dissertation uses empirical evidence to better understand how instructors and administrators make decisions and the implications of these decisions for students.

In the first chapter, I use data from Duke University and a Bayesian model of correlated learning to measure the signal quality of grades across academic fields. The correlated feature of the model allows grades in one academic field to signal ability in all other fields allowing me to measure both ‘own category' signal quality and ‘spillover' signal quality. Estimates reveal a clear division between information rich Science, Engineering, and Economics grades and less informative Humanities and Social Science grades. In many specifications, information spillovers are so powerful that precise Science, Engineering, and Economics grades are more informative about Humanities and Social Science abilities than Humanities and Social Science grades. This suggests students who take engineering courses during their Freshman year make more informed specialization decisions later in college.

In the second chapter, I use data from the University of Central Arkansas to understand how universities decide which courses to offer and how much to spend on instructors for these courses. Course offerings and instructor characteristics directly affect the courses students choose and the value they receive from these choices. This chapter reveals the university preferences over these student outcomes which best explain observed course offerings and instructors. This allows me to assess whether university incentives are aligned with students, to determine what alternative university choices would be preferred by students, and to illustrate how a revenue neutral tax/subsidy policy can induce a university to make these student-best decisions.

In the third chapter, co-authored with Thomas Ahn, Peter Arcidiacono, and Amy Hopson, we use data from the University of Kentucky to understand how instructors choose grading policies. In this chapter, we estimate an equilibrium model in which instructors choose grading policies and students choose courses and study effort given grading policies. In this model, instructors set both a grading intercept and a return on ability and effort. This builds a rich link between the grading policy decisions of instructors and the course choices of students. We use estimates of this model to infer what preference parameters best explain why instructors chose estimated grading policies. To illustrate the importance of these supply side decisions, we show changing grading policies can substantially reduce the gender gap in STEM enrollment.

Almetrics: measuring the influence of the media on the social impact of research

Social media is changing the way we interact, present ideas and information and judge the quality of content and contributions. In recent years there have been hundreds of platforms to freely share all kinds of information and connect across networks. These new tools generate activity statistics and interactions among users such as mentions, retweets, conversations, comments on blogs or Facebook; managers references showing popularity ratings of more references shared by other researchers or repositories that generate statistics of visits or downloads of articles. This paper analyzes that have meaning and implications altmetrics, what are its advantages and critical platforms (Almetric.com, ImpactStory, Plos altmetrics, PlumX), reports progress and benefits for authors, publishers and librarians. It concluded that the value of alternative metrics as a complementary tool citation analysis is evident, although it is suggested that you should dig deeper into this issue to unravel the meaning and the potential value of these indicators to assess their potential.

An evaluation of carbon offset supplementation options for beef production systems on coastal speargrass in central Queensland, Australia

In 2014, the Australian Government implemented the Emissions Reduction Fund to offer incentives for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by following approved methods. Beef cattle businesses in northern Australia can participate by applying the 'reducing GHG emissions by feeding nitrates to beef cattle' methodology and the 'beef cattle herd management' methods. The nitrate (NO3) method requires that each baseline area must demonstrate a history of urea use. Projects earn Australian carbon credit units (ACCU) for reducing enteric methane emissions by substituting NO3 for urea at the same amount of fed nitrogen. NO3 must be fed in the form of a lick block because most operations do not have labour or equipment to manage daily supplementation. NO3 concentrations, after a 2-week adaptation period, must not exceed 50 g NO3/adult animal equivalent per day or 7 g NO3/kg dry matter intake per day to reduce the risk of NO3 toxicity. There is also a 'beef cattle herd management' method, approved in 2015, that covers activities that improve the herd emission intensity (emissions per unit of product sold) through change in the diet or management. The present study was conducted to compare the required ACCU or supplement prices for a 2% return on capital when feeding a low or high supplement concentration to breeding stock of either (1) urea, (2) three different forms of NO3 or (3) cottonseed meal (CSM), at N concentrations equivalent to 25 or 50 g urea/animal equivalent, to fasten steer entry to a feedlot (backgrounding), in a typical breeder herd on the coastal speargrass land types in central Queensland. Monte Carlo simulations were run using the software @risk, with probability functions used for (1) urea, NO3 and CSM prices, (2) GHG mitigation, (3) livestock prices and (4) carbon price. Increasing the weight of steers at a set turnoff month by feeding CSM was found to be the most cost-effective option, with or without including the offset income. The required ACCU prices for a 2% return on capital were an order of magnitude higher than were indicative carbon prices in 2015 for the three forms of NO3. The likely costs of participating in ERF projects would reduce the return on capital for all mitigation options. © CSIRO 2016.

Active versus passive management : the case of BOVESPA

Mestrado em Finanças

Impact of IS/IT Investments on Firm Performance: Does Stakeholder Orientation Matter?

This research project addresses a central question in the IS business value field: Does IS/IT investments impact positively on firm financial performance? IS/IT investments are seen as having an enormous potential impact on the competitive position of the firm, on its performance, and demand an active and motivated participation of several stakeholder groups. Actual research conducted in the Information Systems field, relating IS/IT investments with firm performance use transactions costs economics and resource-based view of the firm to try to explain and understand that relationship. However, it lacks to stress the importance of stakeholder management, as a moderator variable in that relationship. Stakeholder theory sees the firm as the hub centric to the spokes representing various stakeholders who were in essence equidistant to the firm, and survival and continuing profitability of the corporation depend upon its ability to fulfil its economic and social purpose, which is to create and distribute wealth or value sufficient to ensure that each primary stakeholder group continues as part of the corporation’s stakeholder system. Stakeholder theory in its instrumental version, argues that if a firm pays attention to the stakes of all stakeholder groups (and not just shareholders), it will obtain higher levels of financial performance. With this premise in mind, the aim of this paper is to discuss and test the use of stakeholder theory in the IS business value stream of research, in order to achieve a better understanding of the impact of IS/IT investments on firm performance (moderated by stakeholder management). To achieve the expected impact from an IS/IT investment, it is argued that firms need a strong commitment from those stakeholder groups, which lead us to the need of a corporate “stakeholder orientation”. When firm financial performance is measured by returns on assets (ROA), returns on investments (ROI) and returns on sales (ROS), the results show that “stakeholder orientation” impact positively in the relation between IS/IT and firm performance, using a sample of Portuguese large companies.

Financial Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farm on the Farming Company Level

This research was conducted to evaluate the feasibility level of dairy cattle farm on the farming company level especially from the financial aspects. Research was carried out from March to July 2003 in Rumeksa Mekaring Sabda dairy cattle farm company, Argomulyo District, Salatiga. Case study was used as research method. Collected data was tabulated and analyzed using financial analysis criteria (Return On Investment, Payback Period, Net Present Value, Benefit Cost Ratio and Internal Rate of Return). The result showed that ROI (20.44%) is higher than deposit interest  rate (8%). The length of payback period (3 years and 6 months) is faster than maximum period that was predicted by the company (5 years). NPV (Rp. 45,565,585.16) and BC Ratio (1.42) have positive and higher value (more than 1), respectively. IRR’s value (38.45%) is higher than credit interest rate (18%). Based on the results, it can be concluded that the company is feasible enough to continue the operational project. (Animal Production 7(1): 40-45 (2005) Key Words : Financial analysis, farming company, dairy cattle

Value-oriented process modeling : integrating financial perspectives into business process re-design

Purpose – Financial information about costs and return on investments are of key importance to strategic decision-making but also in the context of process improvement or business engineering. In this paper we propose a value-oriented approach to business process modeling based on key concepts and metrics from operations and financial management, to aid decision making in process re-design projects on the basis of process models. Design/methodology/approach – We suggest a theoretically founded extension to current process modeling approaches, and delineate a framework as well as methodical support to incorporate financial information into process re-design. We use two case studies to evaluate the suggested approach. Findings – Based on two case studies, we show that the value-oriented process modeling approach facilitates and improves managerial decision-making in the context of process re-design. Research limitations / implications – We present design work and two case studies. More research is needed to more thoroughly evaluate the presented approach in a variety of real-life process modeling settings. Practical implications – We show how our approach enables decision makers to make investment decisions in process re-design projects, and also how other decisions, for instance in the context of enterprise architecture design, can be facilitated. Originality/value – This study reports on an attempt to integrate financial considerations into the act of process modeling, in order to provide more comprehensive decision making support in process re-design projects.

Education for all : providing curriculum for students with disabilities in a standards-based environment : implications for Queensland schools

This report investigates lessons learned by educators in the United States when providing a standards-based curriculum for all students including Students with Disabilities (SWD). Assumptions about implementation of these lessons are then made to the Queensland school system. Queensland mainstream schools currently provide a standards-based curriculum for over sixteen thousand-four hundred students with mild-moderate disabilities and appear to be challenged by this new educational reform and its implications to school and teacher practices, beliefs and attitudes. The analysis of US research, literature and educational policy for this report, has provided some implications for Queensland schools in the areas of student participation, achievement and curriculum planning to provide an “education for all”. The analysis and comparison of legislation and policy, which demonstrates some significant similarities, provides greater validity for the application of lessons learned in the United States to the Queensland context. The key findings about lessons learned provides Queensland schools with some assumptions as to why and how they need to refocus school leader and teachers’ practices, beliefs and attitudes to provide an “education for all”. These lessons infer that school leaders and teachers to explicitly focus on equity, expectation, accountability, performance, alignment and collaboration so that effective curriculum is provided for SWD, indeed all students, in the Queensland standards-based curriculum environment.

Effectuation & newness : an intertwined relationship?

Principal topic: Effectuation theory suggests that entrepreneurs develop their new ventures in an iterative way by selecting possibilities through flexibility and interactions with the market; a focus on affordability of loss rather than maximal return on the capital invested, and the development of pre-commitments and alliances from stakeholders (Sarasvathy, 2001, 2008; Sarasvathy et al., 2005, 2006). In contrast, causation may be described as a rationalistic reasoning method to create a company. After a comprehensive market analysis to discover opportunities, the entrepreneur will select the alternative with the higher expected return and implement it through the use of a business plan. However, little is known about the consequences of following either of these two processes. One aspect that remains unclear is the relationship between newness and effectuation. On one hand it can be argued that the combination of a means-centered, interactive (through pre-commitments and alliances with stakeholders from the early phases of the venture creation) and open-minded process (through flexibility of exploiting contingencies) should encourage and facilitate the development of innovative solutions. On the other hand, having a close relationship with their “future first customers” and focussing too much on the resources and knowledge already within the firm may be a constraint that is not conducive to innovation, or at least not to a radical innovation. While it has been suggested that effectuation strategy is more likely to be used by innovative entrepreneurs (Sarasvathy, 2001), this hypothesis has not been demonstrated yet (Sarasvathy, 2001). Method: In our attempt to capture newness in its different aspects we have considered the following four domains where newness may happen: new product/service; new method for promotion and sales; new production methods/sourcing; market creation. We identified how effectuation may be differently associated with these four domains of newness. To test our four sets of hypotheses a dataset of 1329 firms (702 nascent and 627 young firms) randomly selected in Australia was examined through ANOVA Tukey HSD Test. Results and Implications: Results indicate the existence of a curvilinear relationship between effectuation and newness where low and high levels of newness are associated with low level of effectuation while medium level of newness is associated with high level of effectuation. Implications for academia, practitioners and policy makers are also discussed.

Entering the era of post production the role visual effects will play in documentary

Creating an acceptance of Visual Effects (VFX) as an effective non-fiction communication tool has the potential to significantly boost return on investment for filmmakers producing documentary. Obtaining this acceptance does not necessarily mean rethinking the way documentary is defined, however, the need to address negative perceptions presently dominant within the production industry does exist; specifically, the misguided judgement that use of sequences which include visual effects discredits a filmmaker's attempt to represent reality. After completing a documentary utilising a traditional model of production for methodology, the question of how to increase this film's marketability is then examined by testing the specific assertion that Visual Effects is capable of increasing the level of appeal inherent within the documentary genre. Whilst this area of research is speculative, qualifying Visual Effects as an acceptable communication tool in non-fiction narratives will allow the documentary sector to benefit from increased production capabilities.

The growth-profitability relationship : strategic orientations as moderator

Principal Topic: In this study we investigate how strategic orientation moderates the impact of growth on profitability for a sample of Danish high growth (Gazelle) firms. ---------- Firm growth has been an essential part of both management research and entrepreneurship research for decades (e.g. Penrose 1959, Birch 1987, Storey 1994). From a societal point of view, firm growth has been perceived as economic generator and job creator. In entrepreneurship research, growth has been an important part of the field (Davidsson, Delmar and Wiklund 2006), and many have used growth as a measure of success. In strategic management, growth has been seen as an approach to achieve competitive advantages and a way of becoming increasing profitable (e.g. Russo and Fouts 1997, Cho and Pucic 2005). However, although firm growth used to be perceived as a natural pathway to profitability recently more skepticism has emerged due to both new theoretical development and new empirical insights. Empirically, studies show inconsistent and inconclusive empirical evidence regarding the impact of growth on profitability. Our review reveals that some studies find a substantial positive relationship, some find a weak positive relationship, some find no relationship and further some find a negative relationship. Overall, two dominant yet divergent theoretical positions can be identified. The first position, mainly focusing on the environmental fit, argues that firms are likely to become more profitable if they enter a market quickly and on a larger scale due to first mover advantages and economic of scale. The second position, mainly focusing the internal fit, argues that growth may lead to a range of internal challenges and difficulties, including rapid change in structure, reward systems, decision making, communication and management style. The inconsistent empirical results together with two divergent theoretical positions call for further investigations into the circumstances by which growth generate profitability and into the circumstances by which growth do not generate profitability. In this project, we investigate how strategic orientations influence the impact of growth on profitability by asking the following research question: How is the impact of growth on profitability moderated by strategic orientation? Based on a literature review of how growth impacts profitability in areas such as entrepreneurship, strategic management and strategic entrepreneurship we develop three hypotheses regarding the growth-profitability relationship and strategic orientation as a potential moderator. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: The three hypotheses are tested on data collected in 2008. All firms in Denmark, including all listed and non-listed (VAT-registered) firms who experienced a 100 % growth and had a positive sales or gross profit over a four years period (2004-2007) were surveyed. In total 2,475 fulfilled the requirements. Among those 1,107 firms returned usable questionnaires satisfactory giving us a response rate on 45 %. The financial data together with data on number of employees were obtained from D&B (previously Dun & Bradstreet). The remaining data were obtained through the survey. Hierarchical regression models with ROA (return on assets) as the dependent variable were used to test the hypotheses. In the first model control variables including region, industry, firm age, CEO age, CEO gender, CEO education and number of employees were entered. In the second model, growth measured as growth in employees was entered. Then strategic orientation (differentiation, cost leadership, focus differentiation and focus cost leadership) and then interaction effects of strategic orientation and growth were entered in the model. ---------- Results and Implications: The results show a positive impact of firm growth on profitability and further that this impact is moderated by strategic orientation. Specifically, it was found that growth has a larger impact on profitability when firms do not pursue a focus strategy including both focus differentiation and focus cost leadership. Our preliminary interpretation of the results suggests that the value of growth depends on the circumstances and more specifically 'how much is left to fight for'. It seems like those firms who target towards a narrow segment are less likely to gain value of growth. The remaining market shares to fight for to these firms are not large enough to compensate for the cost of growing. Based on our findings, it therefore seems like growth has a more positive relationship with profitability for those who approach a broad market segment. Furthermore we argue that firms pursuing af Focus strategy will have more specialized assets that decreases the possibilities of further profitable expansion. For firms, CEOs, board of directors etc., the study shows that high growth is not necessarily something worth aiming for. It is a trade-off between the cost of growing and the value of growing. For many firms, there might be better ways of generating profitability in the long run. It depends on the strategic orientation of the firm. For advisors and consultants, the conditional value of growth implies that in-depth knowledge on their clients' situation is necessary before any advice can be given. And finally, for policy makers, it means they have to be careful when initiating new policies to promote firm growth. They need to take into consideration firm strategy and industry conditions.

E-commerce experiences in the real estate industry : a preliminary study in regional Queensland

Computer systems have become commonplace in most SMEs and technology is increasingly becoming a part of doing business. In recent years, the Internet has become readily available to businesses; consequently there has been growing pressure on SMEs to take up e-commerce. However, e-commerce is perceived by many as being unproven in terms of business benefit. This research aims to determine what, if any, benefits are derived from assimilating e-commerce technologies into SME business processes. This paper presents three in-depth case studies from the Real Estate industry in a regional setting. Overall, findings were positive and identified the following experiences: enhanced business efficiencies, cost benefits, improved customer interactions and increased business return on investment.