Risk perception and the public acceptance of drones

Unmanned aircraft, or drones, are a rapidly emerging sector of the aviation industry. There has been limited substantive research, however, into the public perception and acceptance of drones. This paper presents the results from two surveys of the Australian public designed to investigate (a) whether the public perceive drones to be riskier than existing manned aviation, (b) whether the terminology used to describe the technology influences public perception, and (c) what the broader concerns are that may influence public acceptance of the technology. We find that the Australian public currently hold a relatively neutral attitude towards drones. Respondents did not consider the technology to be overly unsafe, risky, beneficial, or threatening. Drones are largely viewed as being of comparable risk to that of existing manned aviation. Further, terminology had a minimal effect on the perception of the risks or acceptability of the technology. The neutral response is likely due to a lack of knowledge about the technology, which was also identified as the most prevalent public concern as opposed to the risks associated with its use. Privacy, military use and misuse (e.g., terrorism) were also significant public concerns. The results suggest that society is yet to form an opinion of drones. As public knowledge increases, the current position is likely to change. Industry communication and media coverage will likely influence the ultimate position adopted by the public, which can be difficult to change once established.

Mobile medical applications for melanoma risk assessment: False assurance or valuable tool?

With the smartphone revolution, consumer-focused mobile medical applications (apps) have flooded the market without restriction. We searched the market for commercially available apps on all mobile platforms that could provide automated risk analysis of the most serious skin cancer, melanoma. We tested 5 relevant apps against 15 images of previously excised skin lesions and compared the apps' risk grades to the known histopathologic diagnosis of the lesions. Two of the apps did not identify any of the melanomas. The remaining 3 apps obtained 80% sensitivity for melanoma risk identification; specificities for the 5 apps ranged from 20%-100%. Each app provided its own grading and recommendation scale and included a disclaimer recommending regular dermatologist evaluation regardless of the analysis outcome. The results indicate that autonomous lesion analysis is not yet ready for use as a triage tool. More concerning is the lack of restrictions and regulations for these applications.

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter.

Economic Analysis of Sugarcane Farming Systems for Water Quality Improvement in the Great Barrier Reef Catchments.

In this report we analyse the private financial-economic impacts of transitioning to improved sugarcane management in the National Resource Management regions of the Wet Tropics, Burdekin Dry Tropics and Mackay Whitsundays. In order to do so, we: 1) compare farm GMs; 2) present information on capital investment associated with the transition; 3) perform a net present value analysis of the investments and; 4) undertake a risk analysis for cane and legume yields and prices. It must be noted that transaction costs are not captured within this project.

Ecological consequences of genetic modifications - an invasion analysis approach

Biological invasions are considered as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, as they may lead to disruption and homogenization of natural communities, and in the worst case, to native species extinctions. The introduction of gene modified organisms (GMOs) to agricultural, fisheries and forestry practices brings them into contact with natural populations. GMOs may appear as new invasive species if they are able to (1) invade into natural habitats or (2) hybridize with their wild relatives. The benefits of GMOs, such as increased yield or decreased use of insecticides or herbicides in cultivation, may thus be reduced due the potential risks they may cause. A careful ecological risk analysis therefore has to precede any responsible GMO introduction. In this thesis I study ecological invasion in relation to GMOs, and what kind of consequences invasion may have in natural populations. A set of theoretical models that combine life-history evolution, population dynamics, and population genetics were developed for the hazard identification part of ecological risks assessment of GMOs. In addition, the potential benefits of GMOs in management of an invasive pest were analyzed. In the first study I showed that a population that is fluctuating due to scramble-type density dependence (due to, e.g., nutrient competition in plants) may be invaded by a population that is relatively more limited by a resource (e.g., light in plants) that is a cause of contest-type density dependence. This result emphasises the higher risk of invasion in unstable environments. The next two studies focused on escape of a growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish into a natural population. The results showed that previous models may have given too pessimistic a view of the so called Trojan gene -effect, where the invading genotype is harmful for the population as a whole. The previously suggested population extinctions did not occur in my studies, since the changes in mating preferences caused by the GH-fish were be ameliorated by decreased level of competition. The GH-invaders may also have to exceed a threshold density before invasion can be successful. I also showed that the prevalence of mature parr (aka. sneaker) strategy among GH-fish may have clear effect on invasion outcome. The fourth study assessed the risks and developed methods against the invasion of the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata). I showed that the eradication of CPB is most important for the prevention of their establishment, but the cultivation of transgenic Bt-potato could also be effective. In general, my results emphasise that invasion of transgenic species or genotypes to be possible under certain realistic conditions and resulting in competitive exclusion, population decline through outbreeding depression and genotypic displacement of native species. Ecological risk assessment should regard the decline and displacement of the wild genotype by an introduced one as a consequence that is as serious as the population extinction. It will also be crucial to take into account different kinds of behavioural differences among species when assessing the possible hazards that GMOs may cause if escaped. The benefits found of GMO crops effectiveness in pest management may also be too optimistic since CPB may evolve resistance to Bt-toxin. The models in this thesis could be further applied in case specific risk assessment of GMOs by supplementing them with detailed data of the species biology, the effect of the transgene introduced to the species, and also the characteristics of the populations or the environments in the risk of being invaded.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Risk based lifetime costs assessment of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system design: Methodology and case study

Space heating accounts for a large portion of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) are a technology which can reduce carbon emissions from heating and cooling. GSHP system performance is however highly sensitive to deviation from design values of the actual annual energy extraction/rejection rates from/to the ground. In order to prevent failure and/or performance deterioration of GSHP systems it is possible to incorporate a safety factor in the design of the GSHP by over-sizing the ground heat exchanger (GHE). A methodology to evaluate the financial risk involved in over-sizing the GHE is proposed is this paper. A probability based approach is used to evaluate the economic feasibility of a hypothetical full-size GSHP system as compared to four alternative Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system configurations. The model of the GSHP system is developed in the TRNSYS energy simulation platform and calibrated with data from an actual hybrid GSHP system installed in the Department of Earth Science, University of Oxford, UK. Results of the analysis show that potential savings from a full-size GSHP system largely depend on projected HVAC system efficiencies and gas and electricity prices. Results of the risk analysis also suggest that a full-size GSHP with auxiliary back up is potentially the most economical system configuration. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk mitigation framework for a robust design process

The increasing complexity of new manufacturing processes and the continuously growing range of fabrication options mean that critical decisions about the insertion of new technologies must be made as early as possible in the design process. Mitigating the technology risks under limited knowledge is a key factor and major requirement to secure a successful development of the new technologies. In order to address this challenge, a risk mitigation methodology that incorporates both qualitative and quantitative analysis is required. This paper outlines the methodology being developed under a major UK grand challenge project - 3D-Mintegration. The main focus is on identifying the risks through identification of the product key characteristics using a product breakdown approach. The assessment of the identified risks uses quantification and prioritisation techniques to evaluate and rank the risks. Traditional statistical process control based on process capability and six sigma concepts are applied to measure the process capability as a result of the risks that have been identified. This paper also details a numerical approach that can be used to undertake risk analysis. This methodology is based on computational framework where modelling and statistical techniques are integrated. Also, an example of modeling and simulation technique is given using focused ion beam which is among the investigated in the project manufacturing processes.

Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Offenders' Risk-Taking Attitude Inside and Outside the Prison Walls

It has long been assumed that risk taking is closely associated with criminal behavior. One reason for placing criminals behind bars-aside from punishment and protecting the public-is to prevent them from engaging in further risky criminal activities. Limited attention has been paid to whether being inside or outside prison affects offenders' risk-taking behaviors and attitudes. We compared risk-taking behaviors and attitudes in five risk domains (ethical, financial, health/safety, recreational, social) among 75 incarcerated offenders (i.e., offenders who are currently in prison) and 45 ex-offenders (i.e., offenders who have just been released from prison). Ex-offenders reported higher likelihood of engaging in risky behavior, driven largely by a willingness to take more risks in the recreational and ethical domains. Benefits attributed to risk taking as well as risk perception did not differ between incarcerated and ex-offenders, indicating that the opportunity to take risks might underlie behavioral risk intentions. Our results also indicate that risk-taking activities are better predicted by the expected benefits rather than by risk perception, aside from the health/safety domain. These results highlight the importance of studying the person and the environment and examining risk taking in a number of content domains.

Child Maltreatment and High Risk Families: Protecting children and young people

Most child maltreatment occurs within the context of high risk families. There are ethical, economic and ecological reasons why physical abuse in such families should be a major concern. Physical abuse is a significant issue throughout the UK. Yet, while neglect and other forms of abuse are receiving focused attention, physical abuse may languish under the misconceptions that it is no longer a problem, is addressed elsewhere, or is just too overwhelming an issue.
The physical abuse of children can involve regular, violent treatment at the hands of parents or carers over a number of years. Its physical effects may last for days and may result in actual physical injury. It is not accidental. Although physical abuse can occur in any family, it is prevalent in particular sectors of society, where families may be vulnerable to a combination of complex risk factors such as domestic abuse, alcohol and drug (mis)use, and mental health issues. These factors are present in 34% of Serious Case Reviews (SCRs).
The authors provide an increased understanding of risk, analysis, impact, learning and the current landscape of service delivery in relation to the physical abuse of children living in high risk families for professional, postgraduate and policy-making audiences.