Development of power flows around Baltic countries with new grid links

In the Thesis main focus is done on power flow development paths around the Baltic States as well as on market-based requirements for creation of the common Baltic electricity market. Current market regulations between the countries are presented; barriers for creating competitive common Baltic power market and for electricity trading with third countries are clarified; solutions are offered and corresponding road map is developed. Future power development paths around the Baltic States are analysed. For this purpose the 330 kV transmission grid of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is modelled in a power flow tool. Power flow calculations are carried out for winter and summer peak and off-peak load periods in 2020 with different combinations of interconnections. While carrying out power balance experiments several power flow patterns in the Baltic States are revealed. Conclusions are made about security of supply, grid congestion and transmission capacity availability for different scenarios.

Performance characteristic of moving average trading rules in the Finnish stock market

The thesis examines the profitability of DMAC trading rules in the Finnish stock market over the 1996-2012 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis literature by comparing for the first time the performance of DMAC strategies based on individual stock trading portfolios to the performance of index trading strategies based on the trading on the index (OMX Helsinki 25) that consists of the same stocks. Besides, the market frictions including transaction costs and taxes are taken into account, and the results are reported from both institutional and individual investor’s perspective. Performance characteristic of DMAC rules are evaluated by simulating 19,900 different trading strategies in total for two non- overlapping 8-year sub-periods, and decomposing the full-sample-period performance of DMAC trading strategies into distinct bullish- and bearish-period performances. The results show that the best DMAC rules have predictive power on future price trends, and these rules are able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy. Although the performance of the DMAC strategies is highly dependent on the combination of moving average lengths, the best DMAC rules of the first sub-period have also performed well during the latter sub-period in the case of individual stock trading strategies. According to the results, the outperformance of DMAC trading rules over buy-and-hold strategy is mostly attributed to their superiority during the bearish periods, and particularly, during stock market crashes.

Methodology for Photovoltaic Modules Characterization and Shading Effects Analysis

This work describes the methodology, basic procedures and instrumental employed by the Solar Energy Laboratory at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul for the determination of current-voltage characteristic curves of photovoltaic modules. According to this methodology, I-V characteristic curves were acquired for several modules under diverse conditions. The main electrical parameters were determined and the temperature and irradiance influence on photovoltaic modules performance was quantified. It was observed that most of the tested modules presented output power values considerably lower than those specified by the manufacturers. The described hardware allows the testing of modules with open-circuit voltage up to 50 V and short-circuit current up to 8 A.

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis for the siting of on-shore wind power in Kemiönsaari

Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Kemiönsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordanå-Lövböle and Påvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungböle, Björkboda, and Östanå-Labböle. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.

Insiders´ views as a predictor of stock performance : can insider trading be used to predict stock performance on the United States stock market?

This thesis studies the possibility of using information on insiders’ transactions to forecast future stock returns after the implementation of Sarbanes Oxley Act in July 2003. Insider transactions between July 2003 and August 2009 are analysed with regression tests to identify the relationships between insiders’ transactions and future stock returns. This analysis is complemented with rudimentary bootstrapping procedures to verify the robustness of the findings. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that insiders constantly receive pieces of information that indicate future performance of the company. They may not be allowed to trade on large and tangible pieces of information but they can trade on accumulation of smaller, intangible pieces of information. Based on the analysis in the thesis insiders’ profits were found not to differ from the returns from broad stock index. However, their individual transactions were found to be linked to future stock returns. The initial model was found to be unstable but some of the predictive power could be sacrificed to achieve greater stability. Even after sacrificing some predictive power the relationship was significant enough to allow external investors to achieve abnormal profits after transaction costs and taxes. The thesis does not go into great detail about timing of transactions. Delay in publishing insiders’ transactions is not taken into account in the calculations and the closed windows are not studied in detail. The potential effects of these phenomena are looked into and they do not cause great changes in the findings. Additionally the remuneration policy of an insider or a company is not taken into account even though it most likely affects the trading patterns of insiders. Even with the limitations the findings offer promising opportunities for investors to improve their investment processes by incorporating additional information from insiders’ transaction into their decisions. The findings also raise questions on how insider trading should be regulated. Insiders achieve greater returns than other investors based on superior information. On the other hand, more efficient information transfer could warrant more lenient regulation. The fact that insiders’ returns are dominated by the large investment stake they maintain all the time in their own companies also speaks for more leniency. As Sarbanes Oxley Act considerably modified the insider trading landscape, this analysis provides information that has not been available before. The thesis also constitutes a thorough analysis of insider trading phenomenon which has previously been somewhat separated into several studies.

Achieving EU energy targets – Impacts of evolutionary and revolutionary transition paths on power systems

Ambitious energy targets set by EU put pressures to increase share of renewable electricity supply in this and next decades and therefore, some EU member countries have boosted increasing renewable energy generation capacity by implementing subsidy schemes on national level. In this study, two different change approaches to increase renewable energy supply and increase self-sufficiency of supply are assessed with respect to their impacts on power system, electricity market and electricity generation costs in Finland. It is obtained that the current electricity generation costs are high compared to opportunities of earnings from present-day investor’s perspective. In addition, the growth expectations of consumptions and the price forecasts do not stimulate investing in new generation capacity. Revolutionary transition path is driven by administrative and political interventions to achieve the energy targets. Evolutionary transition path is driven by market-based mechanisms, such as market itself and emission trading scheme. It is obtained in this study that in the revolutionary transition path operation of market-based mechanisms is distorted to some extent and it is likely that this path requires providing more public financial resources compared to evolutionary transition path. In the evolutionary transition path the energy targets are not achieved as quickly but market-based mechanisms function better and investment environment endures more stable compared to revolutionary transition path.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Optimization of microwave drying conditions of two banana varieties using response surface methodology

AbstractOptimization of microwave drying conditions of Luvhele and Mabonde banana varieties were studied using response surface methodology. The drying was performed using a central composite rotatable design for two variables: microwave power level (100, 200 and 300 W) and drying time (40, 26, and 12 min.) for Luvhele; (100, 200 and 300 W) and (42, 27, and 12 min) for Mabonde. The colour and texture (hardness) data were analyzed using ANOVA and regression analysis. The fitness of the models obtained was good as the lack of fit for each of the models was not significant. The coefficient of determination R2 of the models was relatively high, hence the models obtained for the responses were adequate and acceptable. Drying conditions of 178.76 W, 12 min. drying time were found optimum for product quality at a desirability of 0.91 for Luvhele; while 127.67 W, 12 min. with a desirability of 0.86 was predicted for Mabonde. The result of this study could be used as a standard for microwave processing of Luvhele and Mabondebanana varieties.

Determination of the thermal parameters of high-power batteries by local heat

A new approach to the determination of the thermal parameters of high-power batteries is introduced here. Application of local heat flux measurement with a gradient heat flux sensor (GHFS) allows determination of the cell thermal parameters in di_erent surface points of the cell. The suggested methodology is not cell destructive as it does not require deep discharge of the cell or application of any charge/discharge cycles during measurements of the thermal parameters of the cell. The complete procedure is demonstrated on a high-power Li-ion pouch cell, and it is verified on a sample with well-known thermal parameters. A comparison of the experimental results with conventional thermal characterization methods shows an acceptably low error. The dependence of the cell thermal parameters on state of charge (SoC) and measurement points on the surface was studied by the proposed measurement approach.

Effect of Material Recycling on the Feasibility of Solid Recovered Fuel Fired Power Plant

This master’s thesis examines the effects of increased material recycling on different waste-to-energy concepts. With background study and a developed techno-economic computational method the feasibility of chosen scenarios with different combinations of mechanical treatment and waste firing technologies can be evaluated. The background study covers the waste scene of Finland, and potential market areas Poland and France. Calculated cases concentrate on municipal solid waste treatment in the Finnish operational environment. The chosen methodology to approach the objectives is techno-economic feasibility assessment. It combines calculation methods of literature and practical engineering to define the material and energy balances in chosen scenarios. The calculation results together with other operational and financial data can be concluded to net present values compared between the scenarios. For the comparison, four scenarios, most vital and alternative between each other, are established. The baseline scenario is grate firing of source separated mixed municipal solid waste. Second scenario is fluidized bed combustion of solid recovered fuel produced in mechanical treatment process with metal separation. Third scenario combines a biomaterial separation process to the solid recovered fuels preparation and in the last scenario plastics are separated in addition to the previous operations. The results indicated that the mechanical treatment scenarios still need to overcome some problems to become feasible. Problems are related to profitability, residue disposal and technical reliability. Many uncertainties are also related to the data gathered over waste characteristics, technical performance and markets. With legislative support and development of further processing technologies and markets of the recycled materials the scenarios with biomaterial and plastic separation may operate feasibly in the future.

The storying of an educator: the power of living legacy /

"I began these pages for myself, in order to think out my own particular pattern of living, my own individual balance of life, work and human relationships." Lindbergh (1983) p.9. In this thesis, I use self-study research as I focus on the topic of living legacy. This is a personal story, using narrative methodology and method as a means of uncovering and naming life lessons learned. I write to gain insight into my interpretation of the concept of living legacy - what living legacy means to me and why this concept is significant to me - and how living legacy impacts the person that I am in the present. Using a narrative lens, I inquire into stories that connect me to my spirit, my gender, education and theology, through my living legacy lessons, and I seek the impact these stories hold for me in my life today. I utilize a variety of methods including personal journals, course work, and arts-based research experiences as I explore the connections to my emerging perceptions ofmy living legacy lessons. This thesis represents the beginning of a continuing journey of self-discovery. I take the journey in order to uncover hidden and ongoing lessons of living legacy and the impact they have on the student and educator that I am.

The Impact of a Corporate Name Change on Stock Price and Trading Volume of Canadian Companies

This thesis examines the impact of a corporate name change on stock price and trading volume of Canadian companies around the announcement date, the approval date, and the adoption date over the time period from 1997 to 2011. Name changes are classified into six categories: major and minor, structural and pure, diversified and focused, accompanied with a change in ticker symbol and without a change in ticker symbol, “Gold” name addition and deletion, and different reasons for name changes (e.g., merger and acquisition, change of structure, change of strategy, and better image). The thesis uses the standard event study methodology to perform abnormal return and trading volume analyses. In addition, regression analysis is employed to examine which type of a name change has the largest impact on cumulative abnormal returns. Sample stocks exhibit a significant positive abnormal return one-day prior to the approval day and one day after the adoption date. Around the approval date we observe significant abnormal returns for stocks with a structural name change. On the day after the adoption date we document abnormal returns for stocks with major, minor, structural, pure, focused, and ticker symbol name changes. If a merger or acquisition is the reason for a name change, companies tend to experience a significant positive abnormal return one-day before the approval date and on the adoption date. If a change of structure is the reason for a name change, companies exhibit a significant positive abnormal return on the approval date and a significant negative abnormal return on the adoption date. In case of a change of strategy as the reason for a name change, companies show a significant negative abnormal return around the approval date and a significant positive abnormal return around the adoption date.

Retos y alternativas de inversión para las compañías aseguradoras en Colombia

En este documento se explica el rol de las compañías aseguradoras colombianas dentro del sistema pensional y se busca, a través de la comprensión de la evolución del entorno macroeconómico y del marco regulatorio, identificar los retos que enfrentan. Los retos explicados en el documento son tres: el reto de la rentabilidad, el reto que plantean los cambios relativamente frecuentes de la regulación, y el reto del “calce”. El documento se enfoca principalmente en el reto de la rentabilidad y desarrolla un ejercicio de frontera eficiente que utiliza retornos esperados calculados a partir de la metodología de Damodaran (2012). Los resultados del ejercicio soportan la idea de que en efecto los retornos esperados serán menores para cualquier nivel de riesgo y sugiere que ante tal panorama, la relajación de las restricciones impuestas por el Régimen de inversiones podría alivianar los preocupaciones de las compañías aseguradoras en esta materia. Para los otros dos retos también se sugieren alternativas: el Algorithmic Trading para el caso del reto que impone los cambios en la regulación, y las Asociaciones Público-Privadas para abordar el reto del “calce”.

Asymptotic normality in mixtures of power series distributions

The problem of estimating the individual probabilities of a discrete distribution is considered. The true distribution of the independent observations is a mixture of a family of power series distributions. First, we ensure identifiability of the mixing distribution assuming mild conditions. Next, the mixing distribution is estimated by non-parametric maximum likelihood and an estimator for individual probabilities is obtained from the corresponding marginal mixture density. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimator of individual probabilities by showing that, under certain conditions, the difference between this estimator and the empirical proportions is asymptotically negligible. Our framework includes Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic series as well as binomial mixture models. Simulations highlight the benefit in achieving normality when using the proposed marginal mixture density approach instead of the empirical one, especially for small sample sizes and/or when interest is in the tail areas. A real data example is given to illustrate the use of the methodology.

Life cycle analysis of UK coal fired power plants

This paper examines the life cycle GHG emissions from existing UK pulverized coal power plants. The life cycle of the electricity Generation plant includes construction, operation and decommissioning. The operation phase is extended to upstream and downstream processes. Upstream processes include the mining and transport of coal including methane leakage and the production and transport of limestone and ammonia, which are necessary for flue gas clean up. Downstream processes, on the other hand, include waste disposal and the recovery of land used for surface mining. The methodology used is material based process analysis that allows calculation of the total emissions for each process involved. A simple model for predicting the energy and material requirements of the power plant is developed. Preliminary calculations reveal that for a typical UK coal fired plant, the life cycle emissions amount to 990 g CO2-e/kWh of electricity generated, which compares well with previous UK studies. The majority of these emissions result from direct fuel combustion (882 g/kWh 89%) with methane leakage from mining operations accounting for 60% of indirect emissions. In total, mining operations (including methane leakage) account for 67.4% of indirect emissions, while limestone and other material production and transport account for 31.5%. The methodology developed is also applied to a typical IGCC power plant. It is found that IGCC life cycle emissions are 15% less than those from PC power plants. Furthermore, upon investigating the influence of power plant parameters on life cycle emissions, it is determined that, while the effect of changing the load factor is negligible, increasing efficiency from 35% to 38% can reduce emissions by 7.6%. The current study is funded by the UK National Environment Research Council (NERC) and is undertaken as part of the UK Carbon Capture and Storage Consortium (UKCCSC). Future work will investigate the life cycle emissions from other power generation technologies with and without carbon capture and storage. The current paper reveals that it might be possible that, when CCS is employed. the emissions during generation decrease to a level where the emissions from upstream processes (i.e. coal production and transport) become dominant, and so, the life cycle efficiency of the CCS system can be significantly reduced. The location of coal, coal composition and mining method are important in determining the overall impacts. In addition to studying the net emissions from CCS systems, future work will also investigate the feasibility and technoeconomics of these systems as a means of carbon abatement.