An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

On the Efficiency of the Benchmarks Used in the Asset Management

In this work we studied the efficiency of the benchmarks used in the asset management industry. In chapter 2 we analyzed the efficiency of the benchmark used for the government bond markets. We found that for the Emerging Market Bonds an equally weighted index for the country weights is probably the more suited because guarantees maximum diversification of country risk but for the Eurozone government bond market we found a GDP weighted index is better because the most important matter is to avoid a higher weight for highly indebted countries. In chapter 3 we analyzed the efficiency of a Derivatives Index to invest in the European corporate bond market instead of a Cash Index. We can state that the two indexes are similar in terms of returns, but that the Derivatives Index is less risky because it has a lower volatility, has values of skewness and kurtosis closer to those of a normal distribution and is a more liquid instrument, as the autocorrelation is not significant. In chapter 4 it is analyzed the impact of fallen angels on the corporate bond portfolios. Our analysis investigated the impact of the month-end rebalancing of the ML Emu Non Financial Corporate Index for the exit of downgraded bond (the event). We can conclude a flexible approach to the month-end rebalancing is better in order to avoid a loss of valued due to the benchmark construction rules. In chapter 5 we did a comparison between the equally weighted and capitalization weighted method for the European equity market. The benefit which results from reweighting the portfolio into equal weights can be attributed to the fact that EW portfolios implicitly follow a contrarian investment strategy, because they mechanically rebalance away from stocks that increase in price.

Essays on International Asset Allocation and Pricing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Human resource management in emerging markets:an introduction

The shifting of global economic power from mature, established markets to emerging markets (EMs) is a fundamental feature of the new realities in the global political economy. Due to a combination of reasons (such as scarcity of reliable information on management systems of EMs, the growing contribution of human resource management (HRM) towards organisational performance, amongst others), the understanding about the dynamics of management of HRM in the EMs context and the need for proactive efforts by key stakeholders (e.g., multinational and local firms, policy makers and institutions such as trade unions) to develop appropriate HRM practice and policy for EMs has now become more critical than ever. It is more so given the phenomenal significance of the EMs predicted for the future of the global economy. For example, Antoine van Agtmael predicts that: in about 25 years the combined gross national product (GNP) of emergent markets will overtake that of currently mature economies causing a major shift in the centre of gravity of the global economy away from the developed to emerging economies. (van Agtmael 2007: 10–11) Despite the present (late 2013 and early 2014) slowdown in the contribution of EMs towards the global industrial growth (e.g., Das, 2013; Reuters, 2014), EMs are predicted to produce 70 per cent of world GDP growth and a further ten years later, their equity market capitalisation is expected to reach US$ 80 trillion, 1.2 times more than the developed world (see Goldman Sachs, 2010).

The effect on the performance of listed family and non-family firms

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the ownership of public firms is related to accounting and market performance, comparing family and non-family listed firms. Design/methodology/approach: We use regression analysis, considering a sample of Portuguese family and non-family firms for the period between 1999 and 2010. Findings: Overall, the results show that family firms are older, are more indebted and have higher debt costs than non-family firms. However, they present lower levels of risk. The evidence suggests that family firms outperform non-family firms when we consider a market performance measure. The market performance of family-controlled firms is more sensitive to the crisis periods and age, compared to their counterparts. The empirical findings suggest that under economic adversity, the performance is especially compromised by the firms’ age. Research limitations/implications: A limitation of this study is the small size of the sample, which derives from the small size of the Portuguese stock market, the Euronext Lisbon. Originality/value: This paper offers some insights on the ownership of public firms and firm performance by investigating a small European economy. The study also contributes to the stream of firm performance, considering new independent variables as determinants of firm performance, such as operational risk. Finally, the study examines the interaction between ownership and performance under both steady and adverse economic conditions, giving the opportunity to analyze whether firm performance differs according to market conditions.

Conceção e pré-teste de comunicação de uma campanha publicitária para a revista "Courrier Internacional"

Trabalho de projeto apresentado à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Publicidade e Marketing.

Estrategias defensivas en el mercado de renta variable en Colombia a la baja

El Mercado de Renta Variable en Colombia sigue estando en desarrollo, así como la confianza de los inversionistas a la hora de tomar decisiones de elección de portafolios óptimos de inversión, los cuales le brinden la maximización de los retornos esperados a un mínimo riesgo. Por lo anterior esta investigación explora y conoce más a fondo los sectores que conforman el mercado accionario y determina cual es más rentable que otro, a través del modelo propuesto por Harry Markowitz y teniendo en cuenta los avances a la teoría hecha por Sharpe a través del índice de Sharpe y Betas. Entre los sectores que conforman El Mercado de Renta Variable en Colombia está el Financiero, Materiales, Energía, Consumo Básico Servicios e Industrial; los cuales siguen la misma tendencia bajista que el Índice del Colcap, el cual en los últimos años está rentando negativamente. Por lo tanto con esta investigación el lector e inversionista cuenta con herramientas que aplican el modelo de Markowitz para vislumbrar de acuerdo a datos históricos, los sectores en los cuales se recomienda invertir y en los que por el contrario de acuerdo a la tendencia de debe desistir. Sin embargo, se aclara que esta investigación se basa en datos históricos, tendencias y cálculos matemáticos que pueden diferenciarse de la realidad actual, dado que por aspectos coyunturales económicos, políticos o sociales puede verse afectadas las rentabilidades de las acciones y sectores en los que decida invertir las personas.

Efeitos da fusão num grupo grupo de empresas do mesmo setor

Mestrado em Controlo de Gestão e dos Negócios

Empirical studies on share issuance and repurchase decisions

Financial constraints influence corporate policies of firms, including both investment decisions and external financing policies. The relevance of this phenomenon has become more pronounced during and after the recent financial crisis in 2007/2008. In addition to raising costs of external financing, the effects of financial crisis limited the availability of external financing which had implications for employment, investment, sale of assets, and tech spending. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of financial constraints on share issuance and repurchases decisions. Financial constraints comprise both internal constraints reflecting the demand for external financing and external financial constraints that relate to the supply of external financing. The study also examines both operating performance and stock market reactions associated with equity issuance methods. The first empirical chapter explores the simultaneous effects of financial constraints and market timing on share issuance decisions. Internal financing constraints limit firms’ ability to issue overvalued equity. On the other hand, financial crisis and low market liquidity (external financial constraints) restrict availability of equity financing and consequently increase the costs of external financing. Therefore, the study explores the extent to which internal and external financing constraints limit market timing of equity issues. This study finds that financial constraints play a significant role in whether firms time their equity issues when the shares are overvalued. The conclusion is that financially constrained firms issue overvalued equity when the external equity market or the general economic conditions are favourable. During recessionary periods, costs of external finance increase such that financially constrained firms are less likely to issue overvalued equity. Only unconstrained firms are more likely to issue overvalued equity even during crisis. Similarly, small firms that need cash flows to finance growth projects are less likely to access external equity financing during period of significant economic recessions. Moreover, constrained firms have low average stock returns compared to unconstrained firms, especially when they issue overvalued equity. The second chapter examines the operating performance and stock returns associated with equity issuance methods. Firms in the UK can issue equity through rights issues, open offers, and private placement. This study argues that alternative equity issuance methods are associated with a different level of operating performance and long-term stock returns. Firms using private placement are associated with poor operating performance. However, rights issues are found empirically to be associated with higher operating performance and less negative long-term stock returns after issuance in comparison to counterpart firms that issue private placements and open offers. Thus, rights issuing firms perform better than open offers and private placement because the favourable operating performance at the time of issuance generates subsequent positive long-run stock price response. Right issuing firms are of better quality and outperform firms that adopt open offers and private placement. In the third empirical chapter, the study explores the levered share repurchase of internally financially unconstrained firms. Unconstrained firms are expected to repurchase their shares using internal funds rather than through external borrowings. However, evidence shows that levered share repurchases are common among unconstrained firms. These firms display this repurchase behaviour when they have bond ratings or investment grade ratings that allow them to obtain cheap external debt financing. It is found that internally financially unconstrained firms borrow to finance their share repurchase when they invest more. Levered repurchase firms are associated with less positive abnormal returns than unlevered repurchase firms. For the levered repurchase sample, high investing firms are associated with more positive long-run abnormal stock returns than low investing firms. It appears the market underreact to the levered repurchase in the short-run regardless of the level of investments. These findings indicate that market reactions reflect both undervaluation and signaling hypotheses of positive information associated with share repurchase. As the firms undertake capital investments, they generate future cash flows, limit the effects of leverage on financial distress and ultimately reduce the risk of the equity capital.

Entre edições e impressões : orientalismo, subalternidade e assimetrias de poder

O presente trabalho tem o objetivo de fomentar a discussão sobre a incidência e a propagação do pensamento orientalista frente às mulheres árabes e/ou muçulmanas no âmbito do mercado editorial português da atualidade. Para tanto, será feita uma análise das capas de um corpus selecionado de obras que abordam esta temática e foram publicadas após o 11 de setembro, quando o chamado Mundo Árabe e o Islã ganharam ainda mais notoriedade no cenário do Ocidente. Mais do que relacionar a produção das publicações sobre mulheres árabes e islâmicas em Portugal aos acontecimentos políticos do específico cenário apresentado, este trabalho buscará evidenciar as representações pungentes acerca deste público feminino e o modo como elas são articuladas em um cenário de poder hegemônico, hierarquias e assimetrias.

Three essays on liquidity

Doutoramento em Gestão.

A divulgação de informação do governo societário e o seu efeito no mercado de capitais. Evidência no PSI20 - Euronext Lisbon

Dissertação de Mestrado, Finanças Empresariais, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Assessment of the Availability of Forest Biomass for Bioenergy Production in Southwest Portugal.

In 2014, Portugal was the seventh largest pellets producer in the World. Since the shortage of raw material is one of the major obstacles that the Portuguese sellets market faces, the need for a good assessment of biomass availability for energy purposes at both country and regional levels is reinforced. This work uses a Geographical Information System environment and remote sensing data to assess the availability and sustainability of forest biomass residues in a management unit with around 940 ha of maritime pine forest. The period considered goes from 2004 to 2015. The study area is located in Southwestern Portugal, close to a pellets factory; therefore the potential Contribution of the residual biomass generated in the management unit to the production of pellets is evaluated. An allometric function is used for the estimation of maritime pine above ground biomass. With this estimate, and considering several forest operations, the residual biomass available was assessed, according to stand composition and structure. This study shows that, when maritime pine forests are managed to produce wood, the amount of residues available for energy production is small (an average of 0.37 t ha -1  year -1 were generated in the study area between 2004 and 2015). As a contribution to the sustainability of the Portuguese pellets industries, new management models for maritime pine forests may be developed. The effect of the pinewood nematode on the availability of residual biomass can be clearly seen in this study. In the management unit considered, cuts were made to prevent dissemination of the disease. This contributes to a higher availability of forest residues in a specific period of time, but, in the medium term, they lead to a decrease in the amount of residues that can be used for energy purposes.

Price manipulation: theoretical models and empirical investigation

Understanding why market manipulation is conducted, under which conditions it is the most profitable and investigating the magnitude of these practices are crucial questions for financial regulators. Closing price manipulation induced by derivatives’ expiration is the primary subject of this thesis. The first chapter provides a mathematical framework in continuous time to study the incentive to manipulate a set of securities induced by a derivative position. An agent holding a European-type contingent claim, depending on the price of a basket of underlying securities, is considered. The agent can affect the price of the underlying securities by trading on each of them before expiration. The elements of novelty are at least twofold: (1) a multi-asset market is considered; (2) the problem is solved by means of both classic optimisation and stochastic control techniques. Both linear and option payoffs are considered. In the second chapter an empirical investigation is conducted on the existence of expiration day effects on the UK equity market. Intraday data on FTSE 350 stocks over a six-year period from 2015-2020 are used. The results show that the expiration of index derivatives is associated with a rise in both trading activity and volatility, together with significant price distortions. The expiration of single stock options appears to have little to no impact on the underlying securities. The last chapter examines the existence of patterns in line with closing price manipulation of UK stocks on option expiration days. The main contributions are threefold: (1) this is one of the few empirical studies on manipulation induced by the options market; (2) proprietary equity orderbook and transaction data sets are used to define manipulation proxies, providing a more detailed analysis; (3) the behaviour of proprietary trading firms is studied. Despite the industry concerns, no evidence is found of this type of manipulative behaviour.

Equity in Higher Education – Portuguese Perspective

Access, participation and exclusion from higher education for marginalized and disadvan-taged sections of the population are an intricate socio-political as well as economic practice that has manifold explanations and outcomes. During the last three decades, the higher education has experienced expansion in both enrolments and institutions. The approaches and means of delivery have changed besides the diversification in provision. The role of the state and mar¬ket has also reformed. This characteristic has also altered the nature of equity in higher edu¬cation across the globe. The chapters of this book on different countries of Asia, Europe and Latin America examine access and describe the several spaces where cohorts of relevant age group are included, excluded, or are at threat of exclusion in higher education. The chapters also narrate the state of affairs in which despite numerous alike structure in the experience and outcomes of social exclusion across disenfranchised groups and regions, how some critical differences have led to different paths of struggles and policy formation to attain the objective of equity in higher education.