Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff between complexity, spatial resolution, simulation length, and ensemble size. The methods used to assess climate impacts are examined in the context of this trade-off. An emphasis on complexity allows simulation of coupled mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle and feedbacks between agricultural land management and climate. In addition to improving skill, greater spatial resolution increases relevance to regional planning. Greater ensemble size improves the sampling of probabilities. Research from major international projects is used to show the importance of synergistic research efforts. The primary climate impact examined is crop yield, although many of the issues discussed are relevant to hydrology and health modeling. Methods used to bridge the scale gap between climate and crop models are reviewed. Recent advances include large-area crop modeling, quantification of uncertainty in crop yield, and fully integrated crop–climate modeling. The implications of trends in computer power, including supercomputers, are also discussed.

Bergmann's rule and body size in mammals

Aim: To describe the geographical pattern of mean body size of the non-volant mammals of the Nearctic and Neotropics and evaluate the influence of five environmental variables that are likely to affect body size gradients. Location: The Western Hemisphere. Methods: We calculated mean body size (average log mass) values in 110 × 110 km cells covering the continental Nearctic and Neotropics. We also generated cell averages for mean annual temperature, range in elevation, their interaction, actual evapotranspiration, and the global vegetation index and its coefficient of variation. Associations between mean body size and environmental variables were tested with simple correlations and ordinary least squares multiple regression, complemented with spatial autocorrelation analyses and split-line regression. We evaluated the relative support for each multiple-regression model using AIC. Results: Mean body size increases to the north in the Nearctic and is negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, across the Neotropics mammals are largest in the tropical and subtropical lowlands and smaller in the Andes, generating a positive correlation with temperature. Finally, body size and temperature are nonlinearly related in both regions, and split-line linear regression found temperature thresholds marking clear shifts in these relationships (Nearctic 10.9 °C; Neotropics 12.6 °C). The increase in body sizes with decreasing temperature is strongest in the northern Nearctic, whereas a decrease in body size in mountains dominates the body size gradients in the warmer parts of both regions. Main conclusions: We confirm previous work finding strong broad-scale Bergmann trends in cold macroclimates but not in warmer areas. For the latter regions (i.e. the southern Nearctic and the Neotropics), our analyses also suggest that both local and broad-scale patterns of mammal body size variation are influenced in part by the strong mesoscale climatic gradients existing in mountainous areas. A likely explanation is that reduced habitat sizes in mountains limit the presence of larger-sized mammals.

Multivariate analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of GENTLE/S robot-mediated stroke therapy

Background: Robot-mediated therapies offer entirely new approaches to neurorehabilitation. In this paper we present the results obtained from trialling the GENTLE/S neurorehabilitation system assessed using the upper limb section of the Fugl-Meyer ( FM) outcome measure. Methods: We demonstrate the design of our clinical trial and its results analysed using a novel statistical approach based on a multivariate analytical model. This paper provides the rational for using multivariate models in robot-mediated clinical trials and draws conclusions from the clinical data gathered during the GENTLE/S study. Results: The FM outcome measures recorded during the baseline ( 8 sessions), robot-mediated therapy ( 9 sessions) and sling-suspension ( 9 sessions) was analysed using a multiple regression model. The results indicate positive but modest recovery trends favouring both interventions used in GENTLE/S clinical trial. The modest recovery shown occurred at a time late after stroke when changes are not clinically anticipated. Conclusion: This study has applied a new method for analysing clinical data obtained from rehabilitation robotics studies. While the data obtained during the clinical trial is of multivariate nature, having multipoint and progressive nature, the multiple regression model used showed great potential for drawing conclusions from this study. An important conclusion to draw from this paper is that this study has shown that the intervention and control phase both caused changes over a period of 9 sessions in comparison to the baseline. This might indicate that use of new challenging and motivational therapies can influence the outcome of therapies at a point when clinical changes are not expected. Further work is required to investigate the effects arising from early intervention, longer exposure and intensity of the therapies. Finally, more function-oriented robot-mediated therapies or sling-suspension therapies are needed to clarify the effects resulting from each intervention for stroke recovery.

SANS/WANS time-resolving neutron scattering studies of polymer phase transitions using NIMROD

We use new neutron scattering instrumentation to follow in a single quantitative time-resolving experiment, the three key scales of structural development which accompany the crystallisation of synthetic polymers. These length scales span 3 orders of magnitude of the scattering vector. The study of polymer crystallisation dates back to the pioneering experiments of Keller and others who discovered the chain-folded nature of the thin lamellae crystals which are normally found in synthetic polymers. The inherent connectivity of polymers makes their crystallisation a multiscale transformation. Much understanding has developed over the intervening fifty years but the process has remained something of a mystery. There are three key length scales. The chain folded lamellar thickness is ~ 10nm, the crystal unit cell is ~ 1nm and the detail of the chain conformation is ~ 0.1nm. In previous work these length scales have been addressed using different instrumention or were coupled using compromised geometries. More recently researchers have attempted to exploit coupled time-resolved small-angle and wide-angle x-ray experiments. These turned out to be challenging experiments much related to the challenge of placing the scattering intensity on an absolute scale. However, they did stimulate the possibility of new phenomena in the very early stages of crystallisation. Although there is now considerable doubt on such experiments, they drew attention to the basic question as to the process of crystallisation in long chain molecules. We have used NIMROD on the second target station at ISIS to follow all three length scales in a time-resolving manner for poly(e-caprolactone). The technique can provide a single set of data from 0.01 to 100Å-1 on the same vertical scale. We present the results using a multiple scale model of the crystallisation process in polymers to analyse the results.

Pharmacogenetics of Warfarin: Development of a Dosing Algorithm for Brazilian Patients

A dosing algorithm including genetic (VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genotypes) and nongenetic factors (age, weight, therapeutic indication, and cotreatment with amiodarone or simvastatin) explained 51% of the variance in stable weekly warfarin doses in 390 patients attending an anticoagulant clinic in a Brazilian public hospital. The VKORC1 3673G>A genotype was the most important predictor of warfarin dose, with a partial R(2) value of 23.9%. Replacing the VKORC1 3673G>A genotype with VKORC1 diplotype did not increase the algorithm`s predictive power. We suggest that three other single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (5808T>G, 6853G>C, and 9041G>A) that are in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with 3673G>A would be equally good predictors of the warfarin dose requirement. The algorithm`s predictive power was similar across the self-identified ""race/color"" subsets. ""Race/color"" was not associated with stable warfarin dose in the multiple regression model, although the required warfarin dose was significantly lower (P = 0.006) in white (29 +/- 13 mg/week, n = 196) than in black patients (35 +/- 15 mg/week, n = 76).

The impact of computer-assisted learning on academic grades: an assessment of students' perceptions

This study examines student perceptions of the usefulness of Computer-Assisted Learning (CAL) packages in learning accounting concepts in terms of the influence on academic performance. Various additional factors  affecting academic performance [such as gender, prior studies of  accounting, and computer systems, together with entry background] are incorporated in the development of a multiple regression model, together with perceptions of CAL. The study uses a sample of 280 second-year undergraduate accounting students from an Australian university to test the model. In contrast to prior studies (e.g. Lane and Porch, 2002, Accounting Education: an international journal, 11(3), pp. 217-233), this study showed that positive perceptions of the usefulness of CAL significantly influenced performance. Additionally, it was found that international students, many of whom enter university at the second year level having obtained advanced standing credits, had significantly poorer performance than local students. The findings show that gender, prior studies of accounting and computing systems were not significant influences on academic performance. Overall, the results have implications for accounting educators utilising CAL in courses as a means of improving students' understanding of accounting concepts and academic performance.

Longitudinal changes in dietary patterns during adult life

Despite the growing interest in dietary patterns, there have been few longitudinal investigations. The objective of the present study was to extend an earlier method of dietary pattern assessment to longitudinal binary data and to assess changes in patterns over time and in relation to socio-demographic covariates. A prospective national cohort of 1265 participants completed a 5 d food diary at three time-points during their adult life (at age 36 years in 1982, 43 years in 1989 and 53 years in 1999). Factor analysis identified three dietary patterns for women (fruit, vegetables and dairy; ethnic foods and alcohol; meat, potatoes and sweet foods) and two patterns in men (ethnic foods and alcohol; mixed). Trends in dietary pattern scores were calculated using random effects models. Marked changes were found in scores for all patterns between 1989 and 1999, with only the meat, potatoes and sweet foods pattern in women recording a decline. In a multiple variable model that included the three time-points, socio-demographic variables and BMI time-dependent covariates, both non-manual social class and higher education level were also strongly associated with the consumption of more items from the ethnic foods and alcohol pattern and the mixed pattern for men (P<0[middle dot]0001) and the fruit, vegetables and dairy pattern and the ethnic foods and alcohol pattern for women (P<0[middle dot]01). In conclusion, longitudinal changes in dietary patterns and across socio-economic groups can assist with targeting public health initiatives by identifying stages during adult life when interventions to improve diet would be most beneficial to health.

Eight ways at once

Different students have different strengths. A classroom based on a multiple intelligences model meets the needs of all students and raises their awareness of their own strengths and self worth.

Animal visual systems and the evolution of color patterns; sensory processing illuminates signal evolution

Animal color pattern phenotypes evolve rapidly. What influences their evolution? Because color patterns are used in communication, selection for signal efficacy, relative to the intended receiver's visual system, may explain and predict the direction of evolution. We investigated this in bowerbirds, whose color patterns consist of plumage, bower structure, and ornaments and whose visual displays are presented under predictable visual conditions. We used data on avian vision, environmental conditions, color pattern properties, and an estimate of the bowerbird phylogeny to test hypotheses about evolutionary effects of visual processing. Different components of the color pattern evolve differently. Plumage sexual dimorphism increased and then decreased, while overall (plumage plus bower) visual contrast increased. The use of bowers allows relative crypsis of the bird but increased efficacy of the signal as a whole. Ornaments do not elaborate existing plumage features but instead are innovations (new color schemes) that increase signal efficacy. Isolation between species could be facilitated by plumage but not ornaments, because we observed character displacement only in plumage. Bowerbird color pattern evolution is at least partially predictable from the function of the visual system and from knowledge of different functions of different components of the color patterns. This provides clues to how more constrained visual signaling systems may evolve.

Corporate governance structure and firm performance : empirical evidence from Brusa Malaysia, Kuala Lumper

The issue of corporate governance has been emerging as important phenomena that has been searched extensively both in developed countries due to its strategic impact on the monitoring of management activities and firms’ performance. Yet little attempt has been made in developing countries like Malaysia to ascertain what constitute corporate governance and its impact on firm's performance. Therefore, this study aims at examining the structure of the corporate governance and its impact on firm’s performance. This study is based on 100 firms, which are the component of the Composite Index (CI) serve as market barometer. This study employs cross-sectional annual multiple regression model to examine, what constitutes the corporate governance structure and its impact on performance of the firm. The analysis was based on annual regression over 5 years period from 1997 through 2001. Three different blend of surrogate for corporate governance were developed for good corporate governance structure. These are the independent non-executive (outside) directors, audit committee and remuneration committee. To isolate the size effect from the impact of corporate governance structure on firm’s performance, firm’s size was also included are variable in the model. The ratio of net income before tax to total asset is used as a surrogate for firm’s performance. Evidence from the study indicates that there is partial relation between corporate governance structure and corporate performance. The presence of both audit and remuneration committee serves as an important monitoring device to control management activities that lead to increase firm's performance. While on average, the presence of independent nonexecutive directors does not provide any significant explanation for the firm's performance. However, the firm size appears to have significant impact on corporate performance.

Latitudinal gradients in abundance, and the causes of rarity in the tropics: a test using Australian honeyeaters (Aves: Meliphagidae)

Several studies have uncovered interspecific latitudinal gradients in abundance (population density) such that tropical species tend to be, on average, less abundant than species at higher latitudes. The causes of this relationship remain poorly studied, in contrast to the relative wealth of literature examining the relationship to latitude of other variables such as range size and body mass. We used a cross-species phylogenetic comparative approach and a spatial approach to examine three potential determining factors (distribution, reproductive output and climate) that might explain why abundance correlates with latitude, using data from 54 species of honeyeaters (Meliphagidae) in woodland environments in eastern Australia. There is a strong positive correlation between mean abundance and latitude in these birds. Reproductive output (clutch size) was positively linked to both abundance and latitude, but partial correlation analysis revealed that clutch size is not related to abundance once the effects of latitude are removed. A subsequent multiple regression model that also considered range size, clutch size and body mass showed that latitude is the only strong predictor of abundance in honeyeaters. In the separate spatial analysis, the climatic variables that we considered (temperature, rainfall and seasonality) were all strongly linked to latitude, but none served as a better predictor of abundance than latitude per se, either individually or collectively. The most intriguing result of our analyses was that the cross-species latitudinal pattern in abundance was not evident within species. This suggests an intrinsic cause of the pattern of ‘rarity in the tropics’ in Australian honeyeaters. We suggest that evolutionary age may provide a key to understanding patterns of abundance in these birds.

Explaining the effects of a 1-year intervention promoting a low fat diet in adolescent girls : a mediation analysis

Background : Although it is important to investigate how interventions work, no formal mediation analyses have been conducted to explain behavioral outcomes in school-based fat intake interventions in adolescents. The aim of the present study was to examine mediation effects of changes in psychosocial determinants of dietary fat intake (attitude, social support, self-efficacy, perceived benefits and barriers) on changes in fat intake in adolescent girls.

Methods : Data from a 1-year prospective intervention study were used. A random sample of 804 adolescent girls was included in the study. Girls in the intervention group (n = 415) were exposed to a multi-component school-based intervention program, combining environmental changes with a computer tailored fat intake intervention and parental support. Fat intake and psychosocial determinants of fat intake were measured with validated self-administered questionnaires. To assess mediating effects, a product-of-coefficient test, appropriate for cluster randomized controlled trials, was used.

Results : None of the examined psychosocial factors showed a reliable mediating effect on changes in fat intake. The single-mediator model revealed a statistically significant suppression effect of perceived barriers on changes in fat intake (p = 0.011). In the multiple-mediator model, this effect was no longer significant, which was most likely due to changes in perceived barriers being moderately related to changes in self-efficacy (-0.30) and attitude (-0.25). The overall mediated-suppressed effect of the examined psychosocial factors was virtually zero (total mediated effect = 0.001; SE = 7.22; p = 0.992).

Conclusion : Given the lack of intervention effects on attitudes, social support, self-efficacy and perceived benefits and barriers, it is suggested that future interventions should focus on the identification of effective strategies for changing these theoretical mediators in the desired direction. Alternatively, it could be argued that these constructs need not be targeted in interventions aimed at adolescents, as they may not be responsible for the intervention effects on fat intake. To draw any conclusions regarding mediators of fat-intake change in adolescent' girls and regarding optimal future intervention strategies, more systematic research on the mediating properties of psychosocial variables is needed.

A panel vector error correction approach to forecasting demand in regional construction markets

Reliable forecasting as to the level of aggregate demand for construction is of vital importance to developers, builders and policymakers. Previous construction demand forecasting studies mainly focused on temporal estimating using national aggregate data. The construction market can be better represented by a group of interconnected regions or local markets rather than a national aggregate, and yet regional forecasting techniques have rarely been applied. Furthermore, limited research has applied regional variations in construction markets to construction demand modelling and forecasting. A new comprehensive method is used, a panel vector error correction approach, to forecast regional construction demand using Australia’s state-level data. The links between regional construction demand and general economic indicators are investigated by panel cointegration and causality analysis. The empirical results suggest that both long-run and causal links are found between regional construction demand and construction price, state income, population, unemployment rates and interest rates. The panel vector error correction model can provide reliable and robust forecasting with less than 10% of the mean absolute percentage error for a medium-term trend of regional construction demand and outperforms the conventional forecasting models (panel multiple regression and time series multiple regression model). The key macroeconomic factors of construction demand variations across regions in Australia are also presented. The findings and robust econometric techniques used are valuable to construction economists in examining future construction markets at a regional level.

Revisiting the mediating role of trust in transformational leadership effects: Do different types of trust make a difference?

This study examines the mediating effects of cognitive and affective trust on the relationship between follower perceptions of transformational leadership behavior and their work outcomes. Using data obtained from 318 supervisor-subordinate dyads from a manufacturing organization located in mainland China, structural equation modeling results revealed that affective trust fully mediated the relationships between transformational leadership and the work outcomes of followers, including their affective organizational commitment, organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs), and job performance. In contrast, cognitive trust negatively mediated the relationship between transformational leadership and follower job performance, and had insignificant effects on their affective organizational commitment and organizational citizenship behaviors. These findings highlight the importance of affective trust as a mechanism which translates transformational leadership into positive work outcomes for the organization. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Um estudo dos supermercados no Brasil: uma investigação sobre a demanda de mercado, a fatia de mercado e a área de influência

Esse trabalho dá continuidade a estudos anteriores e visa contribuir para o avanço da ainda embrionária teoria varejista. Conseguimos desenvolver e operacionalizar os conceitos de área de influência, demanda de mercado e fatia de mercado, e analisar os resultados desses indicadores para os 27 supermercados de São Paulo, que participaram de nossa extensa pesquisa empírica. Um processo de modelagem econométrica foi conduzido, resultando em um modelo de regressão múltipla que satisfatoriamente explica e prevê área de influência como função de três variáveis: tamanho da loja, densidade populacional e disponibilidade de transporte coletivo. Apoiado em rigorosa metodologia de previsão de mercado, o estudo também revela estimativas de mercado que substancialmente diferem dos valores que vem sendo publicados na mídia especializada do setor. Nossa estimativa da demanda de mercado para o setor 'supermercados' no Brasil, em 2002, chega a superar R$ 100 bilhões, enquanto que nossa projeção da concentração das 5 maiores empresas no setor é de apenas 25%.