Labor's shares - aggregate and industry: accounting for both in a model of unbalanced growth with induced innovation

The relative stability of aggregate labor's share constitutes one of the great macroeconomic ratios. However, relative stability at the aggregate level masks the unbalanced nature of industry labor's shares – the Kuznets stylized facts underlie those of Kaldor. We present a two-sector – one labor-only and the other using both capital and labor – model of unbalanced economic development with induced innovation that can rationalize these phenomena as well as several other empirical regularities of actual economies. Specifically, the model features (i) one sector ("goods" production) becoming increasingly capital-intensive over time; (ii) an increasing relative price and share in total output of the labor-only sector ("services"); and (iii) diverging sectoral labor's shares despite (iii) an aggregate labor's share that converges from above to a value between 0 and unity. Furthermore, the model (iv) supports either a neoclassical steadystate or long-run endogenous growth, giving it the potential to account for a wide range of real world development experiences.

Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements

Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.

Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: the MarQUEST experience

The MarQUEST (Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Modelling Initiative in QUEST) project was established to develop improved descriptions of marine biogeochemistry, suited for the next generation of Earth system models. We review progress in these areas providing insight on the advances that have been made as well as identifying remaining key outstanding gaps for the development of the marine component of next generation Earth system models. The following issues are discussed and where appropriate results are presented; the choice of model structure, scaling processes from physiology to functional types, the ecosystem model sensitivity to changes in the physical environment, the role of the coastal ocean and new methods for the evaluation and comparison of ecosystem and biogeochemistry models. We make recommendations as to where future investment in marine ecosystem modelling should be focused, highlighting a generic software framework for model development, improved hydrodynamic models, and better parameterisation of new and existing models, reanalysis tools and ensemble simulations. The final challenge is to ensure that experimental/observational scientists are stakeholders in the models and vice versa.

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31mWm-2) compared to SHIP (24 mWm-2) and AIR (17 mWm-2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(±13)(one standard deviation) mWm-2) and AIR (+6(±5) mWm-2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(±10) mWm-2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

Inflation dynamics in the new EU member states: how relevant are external factors?

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Multipotent stem cells from umbilical cord: Cord is richer than blood!

The identification of mesenchymal stem cell ( MSC) sources that are easily obtainable is of utmost importance. Several studies have shown that MSCs could be isolated from umbilical cord (UC) units. However, the presence of MSCs in umbilical cord blood (UCB) is controversial. A possible explanation for the low efficiency of MSCs from UCB is the use of different culture conditions by independent studies. Here, we compared the efficiency in obtaining MSCs from unrelated paired UCB and UC samples harvested from the same donors. Samples were processed simultaneously, under the same culture conditions. Although MSCs from blood were obtained from only 1 of the 10 samples, we were able to isolate large amounts of multi-potent MSCs from all UC samples, which were able to originate different cell lineages. Since the routine procedure in UC banks has been to store the blood and discard other tissues, such as the cord and/or placenta, we believe our results are of immediate clinical value. Furthermore, the possibility of originating different cell lines from the UC of neonates born with genetic defects may provide new cellular research models for understanding human malformations and genetic disorders, as well as the possibility of testing the effects of different therapeutic drugs.

Transformed symmetric models

For the first time, we introduce a class of transformed symmetric models to extend the Box and Cox models to more general symmetric models. The new class of models includes all symmetric continuous distributions with a possible non-linear structure for the mean and enables the fitting of a wide range of models to several data types. The proposed methods offer more flexible alternatives to Box-Cox or other existing procedures. We derive a very simple iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood, whereas a direct unconditional maximization would be more difficult. We give simple formulae to estimate the parameter that indexes the transformation of the response variable and the moments of the original dependent variable which generalize previous published results. We discuss inference on the model parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated in one application to a real dataset.

Power series generalized nonlinear models

We introduce in this paper a new class of discrete generalized nonlinear models to extend the binomial, Poisson and negative binomial models to cope with count data. This class of models includes some important models such as log-nonlinear models, logit, probit and negative binomial nonlinear models, generalized Poisson and generalized negative binomial regression models, among other models, which enables the fitting of a wide range of models to count data. We derive an iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood and discuss inference on the parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated with an application to a real data set. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-sectoral health promotion and public health : the role of evidence

Background Evidence-informed health promotion and public health is an emerging and ever-changing theme in research and practice. A collaborative approach to gathering and applying evidence is crucial to implementing effective multi-sectoral health promotion and public health interventions for improved population outcomes. This paper presents an argument for the development of multi-sector evidence and discusses both facilitators and challenges to this process.

Methods Sector-specific contacts familiar with decision-making processes were selected from referrals gained through academic, government and non-government networks and interviewed (in-person or via telephone) as part of a small scale study to scope the use of evidence within non-health sectors where decisions are likely to impact on public health.

Results The views gathered are preliminary, and this analysis would benefit from more extensive consultation. Nonetheless, information gathered from the interviews and literature search provide valuable insights into evidence-related decision-making paradigms which demonstrate similarities with, and differences from, those found in the health sector.

Conclusions Decisions in health promotion and public may benefit from consideration of the ways in which disciplines and sectors can work together to inform policy and practice.

Construction supply chain economics

Introducing the new topic of supply chain economics, this comprehensive title combines theory and practice - including real-world case studies - to bring new methodology and models for mapping the construction sector.

Governance, employees and CSR : integration is the key to unlocking value

Corporate governance has gained increasing importance in the last decade as organisations have been involved in bankruptcies and frauds alongside decreases in organisational value and jobs. Researchers have signalled a need for new perspectives and models of governance, especially one that clearly identifies and embeds employees as part of the system. This article explores the importance of human resources as a key component of the governance system. It discusses whether organisational rhetoric in relation to stakeholders and social responsibility incorporates employees and in doing so it delves into the concept of labour as a key stakeholder. The article examines publicly available reports of two resource-based firms and two finance-sector firms: Rio Tinto, Shell Australia, Westpac and ANZ Bank to explore the position of labour. It concludes that the position of labour as a stakeholder is problematic, with a divergence between espoused statements on CSR and how they are operationalised throughout the organisation. The emphasis seems to be on environmental and financial sustainability with lesser importance placed on dimensions of workplace management and accompanying employee relations approaches.

The 2012 Revised FATF Recommendations: Assessing and Mitigating Mobile Money Integrity Risks Within the New Standards Framework

Mobile money holds great financial inclusion promise, but also poses financial integrity challenges. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF)—the intergovernmental global anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF) standard-setting body—expressed support for financial inclusion and mobile money as a means to decrease the use of non-transparent cash in many developing countries. In February 2012, FATF adopted a new revised set of standards. This Article considers the impact of these new standards on mobile money models in developing countries. It highlights aspects of the new standards that would facilitate innovative mobile money models, but also points to questions and challenges. The new standards are generally more facilitative of new financial services models for the unbanked and underbanked, but a number of key questions and implementation challenges remain. These include mobile money-related privacy and cyber-crime concerns.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.