Checking Assumptions in Latent Class Regression Models via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation Approach: An Application to Depression and Socio-Economic Status

Latent class regression models are useful tools for assessing associations between covariates and latent variables. However, evaluation of key model assumptions cannot be performed using methods from standard regression models due to the unobserved nature of latent outcome variables. This paper presents graphical diagnostic tools to evaluate whether or not latent class regression models adhere to standard assumptions of the model: conditional independence and non-differential measurement. An integral part of these methods is the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure. Unlike standard maximum likelihood implementations for latent class regression model estimation, the MCMC approach allows us to calculate posterior distributions and point estimates of any functions of parameters. It is this convenience that allows us to provide the diagnostic methods that we introduce. As a motivating example we present an analysis focusing on the association between depression and socioeconomic status, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. We consider a latent class regression analysis investigating the association between depression and socioeconomic status measures, where the latent variable depression is regressed on education and income indicators, in addition to age, gender, and marital status variables. While the fitted latent class regression model yields interesting results, the model parameters are found to be invalid due to the violation of model assumptions. The violation of these assumptions is clearly identified by the presented diagnostic plots. These methods can be applied to standard latent class and latent class regression models, and the general principle can be extended to evaluate model assumptions in other types of models.

Collapsed cone convolution and analytical anisotropic algorithm dose calculations compared to VMC++ Monte Carlo simulations in clinical cases

The purpose of this work was to study and quantify the differences in dose distributions computed with some of the newest dose calculation algorithms available in commercial planning systems. The study was done for clinical cases originally calculated with pencil beam convolution (PBC) where large density inhomogeneities were present. Three other dose algorithms were used: a pencil beam like algorithm, the anisotropic analytic algorithm (AAA), a convolution superposition algorithm, collapsed cone convolution (CCC), and a Monte Carlo program, voxel Monte Carlo (VMC++). The dose calculation algorithms were compared under static field irradiations at 6 MV and 15 MV using multileaf collimators and hard wedges where necessary. Five clinical cases were studied: three lung and two breast cases. We found that, in terms of accuracy, the CCC algorithm performed better overall than AAA compared to VMC++, but AAA remains an attractive option for routine use in the clinic due to its short computation times. Dose differences between the different algorithms and VMC++ for the median value of the planning target volume (PTV) were typically 0.4% (range: 0.0 to 1.4%) in the lung and -1.3% (range: -2.1 to -0.6%) in the breast for the few cases we analysed. As expected, PTV coverage and dose homogeneity turned out to be more critical in the lung than in the breast cases with respect to the accuracy of the dose calculation. This was observed in the dose volume histograms obtained from the Monte Carlo simulations.

Monte Carlo calculation of Varian 2300C/D Linac photon beam characteristics: a comparison between MCNP4C, GEANT3 and measurements

Different codes are used for Monte Carlo (MC) calculations in radiation therapy. In this research, MCNP4C and GEANT3 codes have been compared in calculations of dosimetric characteristics of Varian Clinac 2300C/D. The parameters of influence in the differences seen in dosimetric features were discussed. This study emphasizes that both MCNP4C and GEANT3 MC can be used in radiation therapy computations and their differences in photon spectra calculations have a negligible effect on percentage depth dose computations in radiation therapy.

Monte Carlo source model for photon beam radiotherapy: photon source characteristics

A major barrier to widespread clinical implementation of Monte Carlo dose calculation is the difficulty in characterizing the radiation source within a generalized source model. This work aims to develop a generalized three-component source model (target, primary collimator, flattening filter) for 6- and 18-MV photon beams that match full phase-space data (PSD). Subsource by subsource comparison of dose distributions, using either source PSD or the source model as input, allows accurate source characterization and has the potential to ease the commissioning procedure, since it is possible to obtain information about which subsource needs to be tuned. This source model is unique in that, compared to previous source models, it retains additional correlations among PS variables, which improves accuracy at nonstandard source-to-surface distances (SSDs). In our study, three-dimensional (3D) dose calculations were performed for SSDs ranging from 50 to 200 cm and for field sizes from 1 x 1 to 30 x 30 cm2 as well as a 10 x 10 cm2 field 5 cm off axis in each direction. The 3D dose distributions, using either full PSD or the source model as input, were compared in terms of dose-difference and distance-to-agreement. With this model, over 99% of the voxels agreed within +/-1% or 1 mm for the target, within 2% or 2 mm for the primary collimator, and within +/-2.5% or 2 mm for the flattening filter in all cases studied. For the dose distributions, 99% of the dose voxels agreed within 1% or 1 mm when the combined source model-including a charged particle source and the full PSD as input-was used. The accurate and general characterization of each photon source and knowledge of the subsource dose distributions should facilitate source model commissioning procedures by allowing scaling the histogram distributions representing the subsources to be tuned.

Monte Carlo simulation of a dynamic MLC: implementation and applications

PURPOSE: Study of behavior and influence of a multileaf collimator (MLC) on dose calculation, verification, and portal energy spectra in the case of intensity-modulated fields obtained with a step-and-shoot or a dynamic technique. METHODS: The 80-leaf MLC for the Varian Clinac 2300 C/D was implemented in a previously developed Monte Carlo (MC) based multiple source model (MSM) for a 6 MV photon beam. Using this model and the MC program GEANT, dose distributions, energy fluence maps and energy spectra at different portal planes were calculated for three different MLC applications. RESULTS: The comparison of MC-calculated dose distributions in the phantom and portal plane, with those measured with films showed an agreement within 3% and 1.5 mm for all cases studied. The deviations mainly occur in the extremes of the intensity modulation. The MC method allows to investigate, among other aspects, dose components, energy fluence maps, tongue-and-groove effects and energy spectra at portal planes. CONCLUSION: The MSM together with the implementation of the MLC is appropriate for a number of investigations in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT).

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Monte Carlo modeling of polarized light propagation: Stokes vs Jones - Part I

This bipartite comparative study aims at inspecting the similarities and differences between the Jones and Stokes–Mueller formalisms when modeling polarized light propagation with numerical simulations of the Monte Carlo type. In this first part, we review the theoretical concepts that concern light propagation and detection with both pure and partially/totally unpolarized states. The latter case involving fluctuations, or “depolarizing effects,” is of special interest here: Jones and Stokes–Mueller are equally apt to model such effects and are expected to yield identical results. In a second, ensuing paper, empirical evidence is provided by means of numerical experiments, using both formalisms.

Monte Carlo modeling of polarized light propagation: Stokes vs Jones - Part II

In this second part of our comparative study inspecting the (dis)similarities between “Stokes” and “Jones,” we present simulation results yielded by two independent Monte Carlo programs: (i) one developed in Bern with the Jones formalism and (ii) the other implemented in Ulm with the Stokes notation. The simulated polarimetric experiments involve suspensions of polystyrene spheres with varying size. Reflection and refraction at the sample/air interfaces are also considered. Both programs yield identical results when propagating pure polarization states, yet, with unpolarized illumination, second order statistical differences appear, thereby highlighting the pre-averaged nature of the Stokes parameters. This study serves as a validation for both programs and clarifies the misleading belief according to which “Jones cannot treat depolarizing effects.”

Object Kinetic Monte Carlo calculations of irradiated Fe-Cr dilute alloys: The effect of the interaction radius between substitutional Cr and self-interstitial Fe

ObjectKineticMonteCarlo models allow for the study of the evolution of the damage created by irradiation to time scales that are comparable to those achieved experimentally. Therefore, the essential ObjectKineticMonteCarlo parameters can be validated through comparison with experiments. However, this validation is not trivial since a large number of parameters is necessary, including migration energies of point defects and their clusters, binding energies of point defects in clusters, as well as the interactionradii. This is particularly cumbersome when describing an alloy, such as the Fe–Cr system, which is of interest for fusion energy applications. In this work we describe an ObjectKineticMonteCarlo model for Fe–Cr alloys in the dilute limit. The parameters used in the model come either from density functional theory calculations or from empirical interatomic potentials. This model is used to reproduce isochronal resistivity recovery experiments of electron irradiateddiluteFe–Cr alloys performed by Abe and Kuramoto. The comparison between the calculated results and the experiments reveal that an important parameter is the capture radius between substitutionalCr and self-interstitialFe atoms. A parametric study is presented on the effect of the capture radius on the simulated recovery curves.

Monte Carlo simulation of circular grain growth

Monte Carlo simulations have been carried out to study the effect of temperature on the growth kinetics of a circular grain. This work demonstrates the importance of roughening fluctuations on the growth dynamics. Since the effect of thermal fluctuations is stronger in d =2 than in d =3, as predicted by d =3 theories of domain kinetics, the circular domain shrinks linearly with time as A (t)=A(0)-αt, where A (0) and A(t) are the initial and instantaneous areas, respectively. However, in contrast to d =3, the slope α is strongly temperature dependent for T≥0.6TC. An analytical theory which considers the thermal fluctuations agrees with the T dependence of the Monte Carlo data in this regime, and this model show that these fluctuations are responsible for the strong temperature dependence of the growth rate for d =2. Our results are particularly relevant to the problem of domain growth in surface science

MMonCa: A flexible and powerful new Kinetic Monte Carlo simulator

Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) is a widely used technique to simulate the evolution of radiation damage inside solids. Despite de fact that this technique was developed several decades ago, there is not an established and easy to access simulating tool for researchers interested in this field, unlike in the case of molecular dynamics or density functional theory calculations. In fact, scientists must develop their own tools or use unmaintained ones in order to perform these types of simulations. To fulfil this need, we have developed MMonCa, the Modular Monte Carlo simulator. MMonCa has been developed using professional C++ programming techniques and has been built on top of an interpreted language to allow having a powerful yet flexible, robust but customizable and easy to access modern simulator. Both non lattice and Lattice KMC modules have been developed. We will present in this conference, for the first time, the MMonCa simulator. Along with other (more detailed) contributions in this meeting, the versatility of MMonCa to study a number of problems in different materials (particularly, Fe and W) subject to a wide range of conditions will be shown. Regarding KMC simulations, we have studied neutron-generated cascade evolution in Fe (as a model material). Starting with a Frenkel pair distribution we have followed the defect evolution up to 450 K. Comparison with previous simulations and experiments shows excellent agreement. Furthermore, we have studied a more complex system (He-irradiated W:C) using a previous parametrization [1]. He-irradiation at 4 K followed by isochronal annealing steps up to 500 K has been simulated with MMonCa. The He energy was 400 eV or 3 keV. In the first case, no damage is associated to the He implantation, whereas in the second one, a significant Frenkel pair concentration (evolving into complex clusters) is associated to the He ions. We have been able to explain He desorption both in the absence and in the presence of Frenkel pairs and we have also applied MMonCa to high He doses and fluxes at elevated temperatures. He migration and trapping dominate the kinetics of He desorption. These processes will be discussed and compared to experimental results. [1] C.S. Becquart et al. J. Nucl. Mater. 403 (2010) 75

A stochastic model updating method for parameter variability quantification based on response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation

Stochastic model updating must be considered for quantifying uncertainties inherently existing in real-world engineering structures. By this means the statistical properties,instead of deterministic values, of structural parameters can be sought indicating the parameter variability. However, the implementation of stochastic model updating is much more complicated than that of deterministic methods particularly in the aspects of theoretical complexity and low computational efficiency. This study attempts to propose a simple and cost-efficient method by decomposing a stochastic updating process into a series of deterministic ones with the aid of response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation. The response surface models are used as surrogates for original FE models in the interest of programming simplification, fast response computation and easy inverse optimization. Monte Carlo simulation is adopted for generating samples from the assumed or measured probability distributions of responses. Each sample corresponds to an individual deterministic inverse process predicting the deterministic values of parameters. Then the parameter means and variances can be statistically estimated based on all the parameter predictions by running all the samples. Meanwhile, the analysis of variance approach is employed for the evaluation of parameter variability significance. The proposed method has been demonstrated firstly on a numerical beam and then a set of nominally identical steel plates tested in the laboratory. It is found that compared with the existing stochastic model updating methods, the proposed method presents similar accuracy while its primary merits consist in its simple implementation and cost efficiency in response computation and inverse optimization.

MMonCa: An Object Kinetic Monte Carlo simulator for damage irradiation evolution and defect diffusion

In this work, we introduce the Object Kinetic Monte Carlo (OKMC) simulator MMonCa and simulate the defect evolution in three different materials. We start by explaining the theory of OKMC and showing some details of how such theory is implemented by creating generic structures and algorithms in the objects that we want to simulate. Then we successfully reproduce simulated results for defect evolution in iron, silicon and tungsten using our simulator and compare with available experimental data and similar simulations. The comparisons validate MMonCa showing that it is powerful and flexible enough to be customized and used to study the damage evolution of defects in a wide range of solid materials.

FocusDET, a new toolbox for SISCOM analysis. Evaluation of the registration accuracy using monte carlo simulation

Subtraction of Ictal SPECT Co-registered to MRI (SISCOM) is an imaging technique used to localize the epileptogenic focus in patients with intractable partial epilepsy. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of registration algorithms involved in SISCOM analysis using FocusDET, a new user-friendly application. To this end, Monte Carlo simulation was employed to generate realistic SPECT studies. Simulated sinograms were reconstructed by using the Filtered BackProjection (FBP) algorithm and an Ordered Subsets Expectation Maximization (OSEM) reconstruction method that included compensation for all degradations. Registration errors in SPECT-SPECT and SPECT-MRI registration were evaluated by comparing the theoretical and actual transforms. Patient studies with well-localized epilepsy were also included in the registration assessment. Global registration errors including SPECT-SPECT and SPECT-MRI registration errors were less than 1.2 mm on average, exceeding the voxel size (3.32 mm) of SPECT studies in no case. Although images reconstructed using OSEM led to lower registration errors than images reconstructed with FBP, differences after using OSEM or FBP in reconstruction were less than 0.2 mm on average. This indicates that correction for degradations does not play a major role in the SISCOM process, thereby facilitating the application of the methodology in centers where OSEM is not implemented with correction of all degradations. These findings together with those obtained by clinicians from patients via MRI, interictal and ictal SPECT and video-EEG, show that FocusDET is a robust application for performing SISCOM analysis in clinical practice.

On-road visual vehicle tracking using Markov chain Monte Carlo with metropolis sampling

In this study, a method for vehicle tracking through video analysis based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) particle filtering with metropolis sampling is proposed. The method handles multiple targets with low computational requirements and is, therefore, ideally suited for advanced-driver assistance systems that involve real-time operation. The method exploits the removed perspective domain given by inverse perspective mapping (IPM) to define a fast and efficient likelihood model. Additionally, the method encompasses an interaction model using Markov Random Fields (MRF) that allows treatment of dependencies between the motions of targets. The proposed method is tested in highway sequences and compared to state-of-the-art methods for vehicle tracking, i.e., independent target tracking with Kalman filtering (KF) and joint tracking with particle filtering. The results showed fewer tracking failures using the proposed method.