Statistical detection of spurious variations in daily raingauge data caused by changes in observation practices, as applied to records from various parts of the world

In the instrumental records of daily precipitation, we often encounter one or more periods in which values below some threshold were not registered. Such periods, besides lacking small values, also have a large number of dry days. Their cumulative distribution function is shifted to the right in relation to that for other portions of the record having more reliable observations. Such problems are examined in this work, based mostly on the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, where the portion of the series with more number of dry days is compared with the portion with less number of dry days. Another relatively common problem in daily rainfall data is the prevalence of integers either throughout the period of record or in some part of it, likely resulting from truncation during data compilation prior to archiving or by coarse rounding of daily readings by observers. This problem is identified by simple calculation of the proportion of integers in the series, taking the expected proportion as 10%. The above two procedures were applied to the daily rainfall data sets from the European Climate Assessment (ECA), Southeast Asian Climate Assessment (SACA), and Brazilian Water Resources Agency (BRA). Taking the statistic D of the KS test >0.15 and the corresponding p-value <0.001 as the condition to classify a given series as suspicious, the proportions of the ECA, SACA, and BRA series falling into this category are, respectively, 34.5%, 54.3%, and 62.5%. With relation to coarse rounding problem, the proportions of series exceeding twice the 10% reference level are 3%, 60%, and 43% for the ECA, SACA, and BRA data sets, respectively. A simple way to visualize the two problems addressed here is by plotting the time series of daily rainfall for a limited range, for instance, 0–10 mm day−1.

An Extended Kernel for Generalized Multiple-Instance Learning

The multiple-instance learning (MIL) model has been successful in areas such as drug discovery and content-based image-retrieval. Recently, this model was generalized and a corresponding kernel was introduced to learn generalized MIL concepts with a support vector machine. While this kernel enjoyed empirical success, it has limitations in its representation. We extend this kernel by enriching its representation and empirically evaluate our new kernel on data from content-based image retrieval, biological sequence analysis, and drug discovery. We found that our new kernel generalized noticeably better than the old one in content-based image retrieval and biological sequence analysis and was slightly better or even with the old kernel in the other applications, showing that an SVM using this kernel does not overfit despite its richer representation.

Mid- to late-Holocene paleoceanographic changes on the southeastern Brazilian shelf based on grain size records

; High-resolution grain size analyses of three AMS (14)C-dated cores from the Southeastern Brazilian shelf provide a detailed record of mid- to late-Holocene environmental changes in the Southwestern Atlantic Margin. The cores exhibit millennial variability that we associate with the previously described southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) average latitudinal position over the South American continent during the Holocene climatic maximum. This generated changes in the wind-driven current system of the SW Atlantic margin and modified the grain size characteristics of the sediments deposited there. Centennial variations in the grain size are associated with a previously described late-Holocene enhancement of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude, which led to stronger NNE trade winds off eastern Brazil, favouring SW transport of sediments from the Paraiba do Sul River. This is recorded in a core from off Cabo Frio as a coarsening trend from 3000 cal. BP onwards. The ENSO enhancement also caused changes in precipitation and wind pattern in southern Brazil, allowing high discharge events and northward extensions of the low-saline water plume from Rio de la Plata. We propose that this resulted in a net increase in northward alongshore transport of fine sediments, seen as a prominent fine-shift at 2000 cal. BP in a core from similar to 24 degrees S on the Brazilian shelf. Wavelet-and spectral analysis of the sortable silt records show a significant similar to 1000-yr periodicity, which we attribute to solar forcing. If correct, this is one of the first indications of solar forcing of this timescale on the Southwestern Atlantic margin.

Efficient Kernel Computation for Volterra Filter Structure Evaluation

Despite their generality, conventional Volterra filters are inadequate for some applications, due to the huge number of parameters that may be needed for accurate modelling. When a state-space model of the target system is known, this can be assessed by computing its kernels, which also provides valuable information for choosing an adequate alternate Volterra filter structure, if necessary, and is useful for validating parameter estimation procedures. In this letter, we derive expressions for the kernels by using the Carleman bilinearization method, for which an efficient algorithm is given. Simulation results are presented, which confirm the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records

We present the first high resolution, approximately similar to 4 years sample spacing, precipitation record from northeastern Brazil (hereafter referred to as 'Nordeste') covering the last similar to 3000 yrs from Th-230-dated stalagmites oxygen isotope records. Our record shows abrupt fluctuations in rainfall tied to variations in the intensity of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), including the periods corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and an event around 2800 yr B.P. Unlike other monsoon records in southern tropical South America, dry conditions prevailed during the LIA in the Nordeste. Our record suggests that the region is currently undergoing drought conditions that are unprecedented over the past 3 millennia, rivaled only by the LIA period. Using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet analyses we show that changes in SASM activity in the region are mainly associated with variations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and to a lesser degree caused by fluctuations in tropical Pacific SST. Our record also shows a distinct periodicity around 210 years, which has been linked to solar variability. Citation: Novello, V. F., et al. (2012), Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23706, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053936.

NEW RECORDS OF MOSQUITOES FROM NORTHWESTERN ARGENTINA

Eleven mosquito species, namely Aedes hastatus, Ae. fulvus, Coquillettidia albicosta, Cq. juxtamansonia, Culex aliciae, Cx. delpontei, Cx. oedipus, Cx. pedroi, Mansonia flaveola, Uranotaenia leucoptera, and Wyeomyia oblita, are recorded for the first time from northwestern Argentina. In addition, 3 species, Cx. brethesi, Limatus durhami, and Ur. nataliae, are reported for the first time from Salta Province. These records extend the geographical distribution of these 3 species to Salta Province. This study also extends the geographical distributions of Cq. nigricans, Cx. chidesteri, and Ma. humeralis to Jujuy Province and of Ae. meprai, Ae. milleri, Ae. oligopistus, Cx. brethesi, Cx. fernandezi, and Cx. tatoi to Tucuman Province.

Measuring Adherence to Antiretroviral Treatment: The Role of Pharmacy Records of Drug Withdrawals

This study aimed to evaluate adherence to anti-retroviral treatment (ART) among HIV + adults, assess its association with HIV viral load (VL) and identify factors associated to adherence. A survey involving a random sample of adults followed at a HIV/AIDS reference center in Sao Paulo city, Brazil, from 2007 to 2009 was done. A questionnaire was applied and data were retrieved from the pharmacy and medical records. The study involved 292 subjects: 70.2% men; median age: 43 years; median duration of ART: 8 years. 89.3% self-reported taken all prescribed pills in the last 3 days but only 39.3% picked up >= 95% of the prescribed ART from the pharmacy in the last 12 months. At the multivariate analysis having symptoms prior to ART, taking fewer ART pills, and not missing medical appointments were independently associated to higher adherence. Adherence was strongly associated with undetectable HIV VL. Rates of undetectable HIV VL did not differ from 80 to >= 95% of adherence.

NEW RECORDS OF ANOPHELES HOMUNCULUS IN CENTRAL AND SERRA DO MAR BIODIVERSITY CORRIDORS OF THE ATLANTIC FOREST, BRAZIL

Two new records of Anopheles homunculus in the eastern part of the Atlantic Forest are reported. This species was found for the first time in Barra do Ouro district, Maquine municipality, Rio Grande do Sul state, located in the southern limit of the Atlantic Forest. The 2nd new record was in the Serra Bonita Reserve, Camacan municipality, southeast Bahia state. These records extend the geographical distribution of An. homunculus, suggesting that the species may be widely distributed in coastal areas of the Atlantic Forest. It is hypothesized that the disjunct distribution of the species may be caused by inadequate sampling, and also difficulties in species identification based only on female external characteristics. Species identification was based on morphological characters of the male, larva, and pupa, and corroborated by DNA sequence analyses, employing data from both 2nd internal transcribed spacer of nuclear ribosomal DNA and of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I.

NEW FOSSIL RECORDS OF PLEISTOCENE MARINE MOLLUSKS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Fossils of the gastropods Diodora patagonica, Zidona dufresnei, Olivancillaria carcellesi, Lamniconus lemniscatus carcellesi and the bivalve Arcinella brasiliana are registered for the first time from the outcrops of Chui Creek, on the coastal plain of Rio Grande do Sul State, southernmost Brazil, together with other taxa previously known elsewhere. The specimens were collected in a shallow Pleistocene marine facies exposed at the base of the banks of the creek, in a fossil concentration possibly formed by storm events. The taxa described here live in shallow environments (with the exception of A. brasiliana and Z. dufresnei) with sandy bottoms (except for D. patagonica, T patagonica, B. odites, C. rhizophorae and A. brasiliana). The presence of L. lemniscatus carcellesi, found living today only in Uruguay and Argentina, indicates a wider distribution for this taxon during the late Pleistocene.

Two new genera, ten new species and new records of Amazonian Stygnidae Simon, 1879 (Opiliones: Laniatores)

As a result of recent expeditions to two mountains in the Amazon basin, Tapirapeco and Pico da Neblina, two new genera of Stygnidae, Imeri g. nov. (type species Imeri lomanhungae sp. nov.) and Jime g. nov. (type species Jime chifrudo sp. nov.), and ten new species are described: Auranus hehu sp. nov., Auranus tepui sp. nov., Imeri lomanhungae sp. nov.; Jime chifrudo sp. nov.; Stygnoplus ianomami sp. nov.; Stygnus magalhaesi sp. nov.; Stygnoplus neblina sp. nov.; Stygnoplus tapirapeco sp. nov.; Stygnus nogueirai sp. nov., Stygnus kuryi sp. nov.. Additionally, new distributional records in Amazonas (Brazil) are presented for Stygnidius guerinii Soerensen, 1932, Minax tetraspinosus Pinto-da-Rocha, 1997 and Protimesius longipalpis (Roewer, 1943). Keys for genera of Heterostygninae and Stygninae are provided.

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Asymptotic integral kernel for ensembles of random normal matrices with radial potentials

The method of steepest descent is used to study the integral kernel of a family of normal random matrix ensembles with eigenvalue distribution P-N (z(1), ... , z(N)) = Z(N)(-1)e(-N)Sigma(N)(i=1) V-alpha(z(i)) Pi(1 <= i<j <= N) vertical bar z(i) - z(j)vertical bar(2), where V-alpha(z) = vertical bar z vertical bar(alpha), z epsilon C and alpha epsilon inverted left perpendicular0, infinity inverted right perpendicular. Asymptotic formulas with error estimate on sectors are obtained. A corollary of these expansions is a scaling limit for the n-point function in terms of the integral kernel for the classical Segal-Bargmann space. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3688293]

Morphological records of oocyte maturation in the parthenogenetic tick Amblyomma rotundatum Koch, 1844 (Acari: Ixodidae)

Oocyte maturation in the thelytokous parthenogenetic tick Amblyomma rotundatum was examined for the first time using light and scanning electron microscopy. The panoistic ovary lacks nurse and follicular cells and is a single continuous tubular structure forming a lumen delimited by the ovarian wall. Oocytes of tick species are usually classified according to cytoplasm appearance, the presence of germinal vesicle, the presence of yolk granules, and the chorion. However, for this species, we also use oocyte size as an auxiliary tool since most oocytes were in stages I-Ill and were histologically very similar. Oocytes were classified into five development stages, and specific characteristics were observed: mature oocytes with thin chorion, pedicel cells arranged forming an epithelium with two Or more oocytes attached by the same structure, and a large number of oocytes in the process of reabsorption. (C) 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Using Machine Learning Classifiers to Assist Healthcare-Related Decisions: Classification of Electronic Patient Records

Surveillance Levels (SLs) are categories for medical patients (used in Brazil) that represent different types of medical recommendations. SLs are defined according to risk factors and the medical and developmental history of patients. Each SL is associated with specific educational and clinical measures. The objective of the present paper was to verify computer-aided, automatic assignment of SLs. The present paper proposes a computer-aided approach for automatic recommendation of SLs. The approach is based on the classification of information from patient electronic records. For this purpose, a software architecture composed of three layers was developed. The architecture is formed by a classification layer that includes a linguistic module and machine learning classification modules. The classification layer allows for the use of different classification methods, including the use of preprocessed, normalized language data drawn from the linguistic module. We report the verification and validation of the software architecture in a Brazilian pediatric healthcare institution. The results indicate that selection of attributes can have a great effect on the performance of the system. Nonetheless, our automatic recommendation of surveillance level can still benefit from improvements in processing procedures when the linguistic module is applied prior to classification. Results from our efforts can be applied to different types of medical systems. The results of systems supported by the framework presented in this paper may be used by healthcare and governmental institutions to improve healthcare services in terms of establishing preventive measures and alerting authorities about the possibility of an epidemic.

Genetic analysis of kernel oil content in tropical maize with design III and QTL mapping

Oil content and grain yield in maize are negatively correlated, and so far the development of high-oil high-yielding hybrids has not been accomplished. Then a fully understand of the inheritance of the kernel oil content is necessary to implement a breeding program to improve both traits simultaneously. Conventional and molecular marker analyses of the design III were carried out from a reference population developed from two tropical inbred lines divergent for kernel oil content. The results showed that additive variance was quite larger than the dominance variance, and the heritability coefficient was very high. Sixteen QTL were mapped, they were not evenly distributed along the chromosomes, and accounted for 30.91% of the genetic variance. The average level of dominance computed from both conventional and QTL analysis was partial dominance. The overall results indicated that the additive effects were more important than the dominance effects, the latter were not unidirectional and then heterosis could not be exploited in crosses. Most of the favorable alleles of the QTL were in the high-oil parental inbred, which could be transferred to other inbreds via marker-assisted backcross selection. Our results coupled with reported information indicated that the development of high-oil hybrids with acceptable yields could be accomplished by using marker-assisted selection involving oil content, grain yield and its components. Finally, to exploit the xenia effect to increase even more the oil content, these hybrids should be used in the Top Cross((TM)) procedure.