Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.

Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate

Uncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas the irreducible forecast uncertainty (IFU) arising from the chaoticity of the climate system has received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into the mechanisms through which predictability is lost, and hence can inform prioritization of model development and observations deployment. Here, we characterize how internal oceanic and surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute to IFU of Arctic sea ice and upper ocean heat content in an Earth system model by analyzing a set of idealized ensemble prediction experiments. We find that atmospheric and oceanic heat flux are often equally important for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes in sea ice and surface water temperatures, and hence contribute equally to IFU. Atmospheric surface heat flux tends to dominate Arctic-wide changes for lead times of up to a year, whereas oceanic heat flux tends to dominate regionally and on interannual time scales. There is in general a strong negative covariance between surface heat flux and ocean vertical heat flux at depth, and anomalies of lateral ocean heat transport are wind-driven, which suggests that the unpredictable oceanic heat flux variability is mainly forced by the atmosphere. These results are qualitatively robust across different initial states, but substantial variations in the amplitude of IFU exist. We conclude that both atmospheric variability and the initial state of the upper ocean are key ingredients for predictions of Arctic surface climate on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Foliations and polynomial diffeomorphisms of R(3)

Let Y = (f, g, h): R(3) -> R(3) be a C(2) map and let Spec(Y) denote the set of eigenvalues of the derivative DY(p), when p varies in R(3). We begin proving that if, for some epsilon > 0, Spec(Y) boolean AND (-epsilon, epsilon) = empty set, then the foliation F(k), with k is an element of {f, g, h}, made up by the level surfaces {k = constant}, consists just of planes. As a consequence, we prove a bijectivity result related to the three-dimensional case of Jelonek`s Jacobian Conjecture for polynomial maps of R(n).

Phase portraits of quadratic polynomial vector fields having a rational first integral of degree 3

In this paper, we classify all the global phase portraits of the quadratic polynomial vector fields having a rational first integral of degree 3. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The univalent polynomial of Suffridge as a summability kernel

A positive summability trigonometric kernel {K(n)(theta)}(infinity)(n=1) is generated through a sequence of univalent polynomials constructed by Suffridge. We prove that the convolution {K(n) * f} approximates every continuous 2 pi-periodic function f with the rate omega(f, 1/n), where omega(f, delta) denotes the modulus of continuity, and this provides a new proof of the classical Jackson`s theorem. Despite that it turns out that K(n)(theta) coincide with positive cosine polynomials generated by Fejer, our proof differs from others known in the literature.

Irreducible morphisms of categories of complexes

We study irreducible morphisms of complexes. In particular, we show that the irreducible morphisms having one (finite) irreducible submorphism fall into three canonical forms and we give necessary and sufficient conditions for a given morphism of that type to be irreducible. Our characterization of the above mentioned type of irreducible morphisms of complexes characterizes also some class of irreducible morphisms of the derived category D(-)(A) for A a finite dimensional k-algebra, where k is a field. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Inc.

An application of lattice basis reduction to polynomial identities for algebraic structures

The authors` recent classification of trilinear operations includes, among other cases, a fourth family of operations with parameter q epsilon Q boolean OR {infinity}, and weakly commutative and weakly anticommutative operations. These operations satisfy polynomial identities in degree 3 and further identities in degree 5. For each operation, using the row canonical form of the expansion matrix E to find the identities in degree 5 gives extremely complicated results. We use lattice basis reduction to simplify these identities: we compute the Hermite normal form H of E(t), obtain a basis of the nullspace lattice from the last rows of a matrix U for which UE(t) = H, and then use the LLL algorithm to reduce the basis. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A NOTE ON THE COMPOSITE OF TWO IRREDUCIBLE MORPHISMS

In this note, we show that a composite of two irreducible morphisms between indecomposable modules cannot lie in R(3)\R(5).

A NOTE ON FREE GROUPS IN THE RING OF FRACTIONS OF SKEW POLYNOMIAL RINGS

Let L be a function field over the rationals and let D denote the skew field of fractions of L[t; sigma], the skew polynomial ring in t, over L, with automorphism sigma. We prove that the multiplicative group D(x) of D contains a free noncyclic subgroup.

Polynomial identities for the ternary cyclic sum

We simplify the results of Bremner and Hentzel [J. Algebra 231 (2000) 387-405] on polynomial identities of degree 9 in two variables satisfied by the ternary cyclic sum [a, b, c] abc + bca + cab in every totally associative ternary algebra. We also obtain new identities of degree 9 in three variables which do not follow from the identities in two variables. Our results depend on (i) the LLL algorithm for lattice basis reduction, and (ii) linearization operators in the group algebra of the symmetric group which permit efficient computation of the representation matrices for a non-linear identity. Our computational methods can be applied to polynomial identities for other algebraic structures.

POLYNOMIAL AND GROUP IDENTITIES IN ALTERNATIVE LOOP ALGEBRAS

We investigate polynomial identities on an alternative loop algebra and group identities on its (Moufang) unit loop. An alternative loop ring always satisfies a polynomial identity, whereas whether or not a unit loop satisfies a group identity depends on factors such as characteristic and centrality of certain kinds of idempotents.

On the composite of irreducible morphisms in almost sectional paths

We study here when the composite of it irreducible morphisms in almost sectional paths is non-zero and lies in Rn+1 (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

POLYNOMIAL IDENTITIES OF FINITE DIMENSIONAL SIMPLE ALGEBRAS

Let F be an algebraically closed field and let A and B be arbitrary finite dimensional simple algebras over F. We prove that A and B are isomorphic if and only if they satisfy the same identities.

ON THE COMPOSITE OF THREE IRREDUCIBLE MORPHISMS IN THE FOURTH POWER OF THE RADICAL

We study here the nonzero composite of three irreducible morphisms between indecomposable modules lying in the fourth power of the radical.

A Character Formula for the Category (O)over-tilde of Modules for Affine sl(2)

One may construct, for any function on the integers, an irreducible module of level zero for affine sl(2) using the values of the function as structure constants. The modules constructed using exponential-polynomial functions realize the irreducible modules with finite-dimensional weight spaces in the category (O) over tilde of Chari. In this work, an expression for the formal character of such a module is derived using the highest weight theory of truncations of the loop algebra.