A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

As alterações contabilísticas nos contratos de construção em Portugal: estudo de caso da H Tecnic de 2005 a 2010

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Gestão do risco em mercados de energia eléctrica recorrendo ao VaR por simulação de Monte Carlo

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia.

Estratégias e internacionalização na manutenção e produção

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

The impact of financial disclosures in the measurement of notional interest rate swaps in the period of 2007-2012

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Contratos de concessão: os efeitos contabilísticos da adopção da IFRIC 12

Mestrado em Contabilidade Internacional

Leilão de direitos de transmissão financeiros de energia eléctrica em ambiente de mercado

Os direitos de transmissão (Transmission Rigths – TRs) correspondem, na sua essência, a contratos que conferem aos seus proprietários o direito de transmitir energia eléctrica, por um determinado caminho, a um preço fixo. Na actualidade vive-se uma era de liberalização dos mercados de energia eléctrica nos quais, no caso concreto dos mercados de TRs, os diversos agentes podem ceder os TRs que possuem a outros agentes desde que cumpram certos requisitos impostos pelo sistema na figura do seu operador de sistema (Independent System Operator – ISO). Neste sentido, o ISO oferece, aos diversos agentes do mercado, algumas ferramentas que lhes permite transaccionar, sob sua orientação, os seus respectivos TRs fazendo-se cumprir todos os requisitos indispensáveis para o efeito. A mais popular dessas ferramentas, nos principais mercados energético da actualidade, é o leilão. Com o presente trabalho de dissertação é pretendido apresentar-se um modelo para a resolução do problema inerente a um leilão de TRs em ambiente de mercado, neste caso concreto de direitos de transmissão financeiros de energia eléctrica (Financial Transmission Rigths – FTRs). Neste sentido foi desenvolvido um simulador informático (SIM_AuctFTR) que implementa um modelo para este tipo de problemas. Este trabalho foi estruturado essencialmente em três etapas com objectivos inerentes. Assim, numa primeira fase da realização deste trabalho, foi realizado um estudo de diversos conceitos e metodologias inerentes ao problema de leilão de FTRs em ambiente de mercado, suportado por uma sólida base bibliográfica. A segunda fase tratou-se do desenvolvimento do algoritmo da aplicação computacional que solucione um problema de um leilão de FTRs. O SIM_AuctFTR foi desenvolvido sobre o pressuposto da maximização dos rendimentos financeiros provenientes da atribuição dos FTRs propostos a leilão, tendo estes últimos de coabitar no sistema respeitando as restrições técnicas a que este são inerentes, mesmo na eventualidade da ocorrência de contingências de nível ‘n-1’. Por último, numa terceira fase, partindo da aplicação desenvolvida, foram realizados 4 casos de estudos com outras tantas redes eléctricas de forma a testar a robustez da ferramenta desenvolvida.

A actual conjuntura económico-financeira e os mercados de futuros sobre o petróleo

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Contratos de Futuros sobre Taxas de Juro

Mestrado em Contabilidade Internacional

Sustainability reporting and financial reporting: the relevance of an integrated reporting approach

In the business world, there are issues such as globalisation, environmental awareness, and the rising expectations of public opinion which have a specific role in what is required from companies as providers of information to the market. This chapter refers to the current state of corporate reporting (financial reporting and sustainability reporting) and demonstrates the need for evolution to a more integrated method of reporting which meets the stakeholders’ needs. This research offers a reflection on how this development can be achieved, which notes the ongoing efforts by international organisations in implementing the diffusion and adoption, as well as looking at the characteristics which are needed for this type of reporting. It also makes the link between an actual case of a company that is one of the world references in sustainable development and integrated reporting. Whether or not the integrated reporting is the natural evolution of the history of financial and sustainability reporting, it still cannot yet claim to be infallible. However, it may definitely be concluded that a new approach is necessary to meet the needs which are continuously developing for a network of stakeholders.

Uma análise das diferenças em termos da cultura e dos interesses profissionais a partir do projeto de substituiçao das IAS 39: Financial Instruments - Recognition and Measurement

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Stressful working conditions and poor self-rated health among financial services employees

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between exposure to adverse psychosocial working conditions and poor self-rated health among bank employees. METHODS: A cross-sectional study including a sample of 2,054 employees of a government bank was conducted in 2008. Self-rated health was assessed by a single question: "In general, would you say your health is (...)." Exposure to adverse psychosocial working conditions was evaluated by the effort-reward imbalance model and the demand-control model. Information on other independent variables was obtained through a self-administered semi-structured questionnaire. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed and odds ratio calculated to assess independent associations between adverse psychosocial working conditions and poor self-rated health. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of poor self-rated health was 9%, with no significant gender difference. Exposure to high demand and low control environment at work was associated with poor self-rated health. Employees with high effort-reward imbalance and overcommitment also reported poor self-rated health, with a dose-response relationship. Social support at work was inversely related to poor self-rated health, with a dose-response relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to adverse psychosocial work factors assessed based on the effort-reward imbalance model and the demand-control model is independently associated with poor self-rated health among the workers studied.

Power law analysis of financial index dynamics

Power law PL and fractional calculus are two faces of phenomena with long memory behavior. This paper applies PL description to analyze different periods of the business cycle. With such purpose the evolution of ten important stock market indices DAX, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Nikkei, NYSE, S&P500, SSEC, HSI, TWII, and BSE over time is studied. An evolutionary algorithm is used for the fitting of the PL parameters. It is observed that the PL curve fitting constitutes a good tool for revealing the signal main characteristics leading to the emergence of the global financial dynamic evolution.