A systems view of risk factors for knee osteoarthritis reveals insights into the pathogenesis of the disease.

Early detection of osteoarthritis (OA) remains a critical yet unsolved multifaceted problem. To address the multifaceted nature of OA a systems model was developed to consolidate a number of observations on the biological, mechanical and structural components of OA and identify features common to the primary risk factors for OA (aging, obesity and joint trauma) that are present prior to the development of clinical OA. This analysis supports a unified view of the pathogenesis of OA such that the risk for developing OA emerges when one of the components of the disease (e.g., mechanical) becomes abnormal, and it is the interaction with the other components (e.g., biological and/or structural) that influences the ultimate convergence to cartilage breakdown and progression to clinical OA. The model, applied in a stimulus-response format, demonstrated that a mechanical stimulus at baseline can enhance the sensitivity of a biomarker to predict cartilage thinning in a 5 year follow-up in patients with knee OA. The systems approach provides new insight into the pathogenesis of the disease and offers the basis for developing multidisciplinary studies to address early detection and treatment at a stage in the disease where disease modification has the greatest potential for a successful outcome.

Positive Outcomes Influence the Rate and Time to Publication, but Not the Impact Factor of Publications of Clinical Trial Results

Objectives: Publication bias may affect the validity of evidence based medical decisions. The aim of this study is to assess whether research outcomes affect the dissemination of clinical trial findings, in terms of rate, time to publication, and impact factor of journal publications. Methods and Findings: All drug-evaluating clinical trials submitted to and approved by a general hospital ethics committee between 1997 and 2004 were prospectively followed to analyze their fate and publication. Published articles were identified by searching Pubmed and other electronic databases. Clinical study final reports submitted to the ethics committee, final reports synopses available online and meeting abstracts were also considered as sources of study results. Study outcomes were classified as positive (when statistical significance favoring experimental drug was achieved), negative (when no statistical significance was achieved or it favored control drug) and descriptive (for non-controlled studies). Time to publication was defined as time from study closure to publication. A survival analysis was performed using a Cox regression model to analyze time to publication. Journal impact factors of identified publications were recorded. Publication rate was 48·4% (380/785). Study results were identified for 68·9% of all completed clinical trials (541/785). Publication rate was 84·9% (180/212) for studies with results classified as positive and 68·9% (128/186) for studies with results classified as negative (p<0·001). Median time to publication was 2·09 years (IC95 1·61-2·56) for studies with results classified as positive and 3·21 years (IC95 2·69-3·70) for studies with results classified as negative (hazard ratio 1·99 (IC95 1·55-2·55). No differences were found in publication impact factor between positive (median 6·308, interquartile range: 3·141-28·409) and negative result studies (median 8·266, interquartile range: 4·135-17·157). Conclusions: Clinical trials with positive outcomes have significantly higher rates and shorter times to publication than those with negative results. However, no differences have been found in terms of impact factor.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Comparative study of the different degrees of risk of gastrointestinal stromal tumor

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the applicability of the main categories of risk and morphological factors in the prognosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors. METHODS: we retrospectively studied fifty-four cases of GIST, assessing the main prognostic factors of this neoplasis: risk levels, topography, size, mitotic index, necrosis, histological subtype and immunophenotype. We also verified their association and the reduction of overall survival. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that tumors with mitoses number greater than 5 per 50CGA (high-power fields), the presence of necrosis and a high risk for both the systems proposed by Fletcher and Miettinen had a significant association with reduced survival (p = 0.00001, 0.0056, 0.03 and 0.009, respectively). The remaining analyzed factors (size, histological subtype, topography and immunophenotype) had no such association. Multivariate analysis (Jacard index) showed that the Miettinen degree of risk was the one that best correlated with prognosis. CONCLUSION: the risk criteria of Fletcher and Miettinen are important in assessing the prognosis of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors, especially the latter, which adds to the mitotic index and the presence of tumor necrosis.

Increased oxidative stress markers may be a promising indicator of risk for primary ovarian insufficiency: a cross-sectional case control study

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate serum levels of inducible nitric oxide synthase (INOS), myeloperoxidase (MPO), total antioxidant status (TAS), and total oxidative status (TOS) in women with primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) and to compare them with healthy fertile women. We also examined the possible risk factors associated with POI.METHODS: This cross-sectional case control study was conducted in Zekai Tahir Burak Women's Health Education and Research Hospital. The study population consisted of 44 women with POI (study group) and 36 healthy fertile women (control group). In all patients, serum levels of INOS, MPO, TAS, and TOS were determined. INOS and MPO levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay whereas colorimetric method was used for evaluating TAS and TOS levels. Age, body mass index (BMI), obstetric history, smoking status, family history, comorbidities, sonographic findings, complete blood count values, C-reactive protein and baseline hormone levels were also analyzed. Student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare continuous variables between the groups; categorical data were evaluated by using Pearson χ2 or Fisher exact test, when appropriate. Binary logistic regression method was used to identify risk factors for POI.RESULTS: We found significantly elevated levels of INOS (234.1±749.5 versus133.8±143.0; p=0.005), MPO (3,438.7±1,228.6 versus 2,481.9±1,230.1; p=0.001), and TOS (4.3±1.4 versus 3.6±1.4; p=0.02) in the sera of the study group when compared to the BMI-age matched control group. However, difference in serum levels of TAS were not significant between the 2 groups (1.7±0.2 versus 1.6±0.2; p=0.15). Logistic regression method demonstrated that BMI <25 kg/m2, nulliparity, family history of POI, smoking, and elevated serum levels of INOS, MPO, and TOS were independent risk factors for POI.CONCLUSION: We found an increase in INOS, MPO, and TOS in women with POI. These serum markers may be promising in early diagnosis of POI. Further large-scale studies are required to determine whether oxidative stress markers have a role in diagnosing POI.

The Effect of Risk-Based Factors on the Value Premium: The Finnish Evidence

This thesis examines the effect of operating leverage and financial leverage on the value premium in the Finnish stock markets 2002-2012. The purpose of the thesis is to examine whether operating leverage and financial leverage affect firm`s BE/ME and stock returns. The accounting data has been collected from Amadeus database and market-based data from the Datastream database. Sample used in this thesis covers years from 1998 to 2012. This thesis confirms the findings of previous research of tight connection between operating leverage and BE/ME and reinforces the findings of previous research that relation between financial leverage and BE/ME is not robust. In turn, relation between operating leverage, BE/ME and stock returns is not clearly perceived during the 2002-2012 period in the Finnish stock markets.

The measured variation of the Debye-Waller factor of aluminum from 295K to 815K by using the energy dispersive x-ray diffraction technique

The Energy Dispersive X-ray Diffraction System at Brock University has been used to measure the intensities of the diffraction lines of aluminum powder sample as a function of temperature. At first, intensity measurements at high temperature were not reproducible. After some modifications have been made, we were able to measure the intensities of the diffraction lines to 815K, with good accuracy and reproducibility. Therefore the changes of the Debye-Waller factor from room temperature up to 815K for aluminum were determined with precision. Our results are in good agreement with those previously published.

Thermodynamic properties and Debye-Waller factor of fee materials

We have calculated the equation of state and the various thermodynamic properties of monatomic fcc crystals by minimizing the Helmholtz free energy derived in the high temperature limit for the quasiharmonic theory, QH, and the lowest-order (cubic and quartic), 'A2, anharmonic terms of the perturbation theory, PT. The total energy in each case is obtained by adding the static energy. The calculation of the thermal properties was carried out for a nearest-neighbour central-force model of the fcc lattice by means of the appropriate thermodynamic relations. We have calculated the lattice constant, the thermal expansion, the coefficient of volume expansion, the specific heat at constant volume and at constant pressure, the isothermal and adiabatic bulk moduli, and the Griineisen parameter, for the rare-gas solids Kr and Xe, and gold. Morse potential and modified Morse potential were each used to represent the atomic interaction for the three fcc materials. For most of the calculated thermodynamic properties from the QH theory, the results for Kr and Xe with the modified Morse potential show an improvement over the results for the Morse potential when compared with the experimental data. However, the results of the 'A 2 equation of state with the modified Morse potential are in good agreement with experiment only in the case of the specific heat at constant volume and at constant pressure. For Au we have calculated the lattice contribution from the QH and 'A 2 PT and the electronic contribution to the thermal properties. The electronic contribution was taken into account by using the free electron model. The results of the thermodynamic properties calculated with the modified Morse potential were similar to those obtained with the Morse potential. U sing the minimized equation of state we also calculated the Mossbauer recoilless fraction for Kr and Xe and the Debye-Waller factor (DWF) for Pb, AI, eu, Ag, and Au. The Mossbauer recoilless fraction was obtained for the above two potentials and Lennard-Jones potential. The L-J potential gives the best agreement with experiment for Kr. No experimental data exists for Xe. At low temperature the calculated DWF results for Pb, AI, and eu show a good agreement with experimental values, but at high temperature the experimental DWF results increase very rapidly. For Ag the computed values were below the expected results at all temperatures. The DWF results of the modified Morse potential for Pb, AI, eu and Ag were slightly better than those of the Morse potential. In the case of Au the calculated values were in poor agreement with experimental results. We have calculated the quasiharmonic phonon dispersion curves for Kr, Xe, eu, Ag, and Au. The calculated and experimental results of the frequencies agree quite well for all the materials except for Au where the longitudinal modes show serious discrepancies with the experimental results. In addition, the two lowest-order anharmonic contributions to the phonon frequency were derived using the Green's function method. The A 2 phonon dispersion curves have been calculated only for eu, and the results were similar to those of the QH dispersion curves. Finally, an expression for the Griineisen parameter "( has been derived from the anharmonic frequencies, and calculated for these materials. The "( results are comparable with those obtained from the thermodynamic definition.

Taenia solium transmission in a rural community in Honduras : an examination of risk factors and knowledge

Taenia soliurn taeniasis and cysticercosis are recognized as a major public health problem in Latin America. T. soliurn transmission not only affects the health of the individual, but also social and economic development, perpetuating the cycle of poverty. To determine prevalence rates, population knowledge and risk factors associated with transmission, an epidemiological study was undertaken in the rural community of Jalaca. Two standardized questionnaires were used to collect epidemiological and T. soli urn general knowledge data. Kato-Katz technique and an immunoblot assay (EITB) were used to determine taeniasis and seroprevalence, respectively. In total, 139 individuals belonging to 56 households participated in the study. Household characteristics were consistent with conditions of poverty of rural Honduras: 21.4% had no toilet or latrines, 19.6% had earthen floor, and 51.8% lacked indoor tap water. Pigs were raised in 46.4% of households, of which 70% allowed their pigs roaming freely. A human seroprevalence rate of 18.7% and a taeniasis prevalence rate of 2.4% were found. Only four persons answered correctly 2: 6 out of ten T. soliurn knowledge questions, for an average passing score of 2.9%. In general, a serious gap exists in knowledge regarding how humans acquire the infections, especially neurocysticercosis was identified. After regression analysis, the ability to recognize adult tapeworms and awareness of the clinical importance of taeniasis, were found to be significant risk factors for T. soliurn seropositivity. These results demonstrate a high level of transmission and a low level of kn~,wledge about Taenia soliurn in Jalaca. Consequently, intervention measures integrated with health education are necessary to decrease the burden caused by this parasite.

Mediated action, narratives of risk-taking, and identity formation in adolescents with a visual impairment

The purpose of this project was to discern the inherent tension present in narratives told by adolescents with a visual impairment as they attempted to make sense of their experiences, specifically those surrounding risk. Mediated action, based on the foundational work of Vygotsky and Bakhtin, was used as both a theoretical and methodological approach; it is the theory that there are two components that constitute any human action: the "agent," or the person who is doing the acting, and the "mediational means" that he or she is using to accomplish the action in question. Tension ensues as neither is able to fully explain human behaviour. Ten adolescents with a visual impairment participated in a narrative interview, revealing numerous counter-narratives surrounding risk-taking, including "experimentation undertaken using good judgment." Participants offered examples of how they engaged, appropriated, resisted and transformed the dominant narratives of disability and adolescence in their identity formation.

A Survey Measure of Risk Aversion

We Use Survey Data on the Well-Being of Individuals to Measure Attitude Toward Risk. Risk Neutrality Cannot Be Rejected by the Data.