Cálculo do Value at Risk (VaR) para o Ibovespa, pós crise de 2008, por meio dos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional (GARCH) e de volatilidade estocástica (Local Scale Model - LSM)

O objetivo deste estudo é propor a implementação de um modelo estatístico para cálculo da volatilidade, não difundido na literatura brasileira, o modelo de escala local (LSM), apresentando suas vantagens e desvantagens em relação aos modelos habitualmente utilizados para mensuração de risco. Para estimação dos parâmetros serão usadas as cotações diárias do Ibovespa, no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2014, e para a aferição da acurácia empírica dos modelos serão realizados testes fora da amostra, comparando os VaR obtidos para o período de janeiro a dezembro de 2014. Foram introduzidas variáveis explicativas na tentativa de aprimorar os modelos e optou-se pelo correspondente americano do Ibovespa, o índice Dow Jones, por ter apresentado propriedades como: alta correlação, causalidade no sentido de Granger, e razão de log-verossimilhança significativa. Uma das inovações do modelo de escala local é não utilizar diretamente a variância, mas sim a sua recíproca, chamada de “precisão” da série, que segue uma espécie de passeio aleatório multiplicativo. O LSM captou todos os fatos estilizados das séries financeiras, e os resultados foram favoráveis a sua utilização, logo, o modelo torna-se uma alternativa de especificação eficiente e parcimoniosa para estimar e prever volatilidade, na medida em que possui apenas um parâmetro a ser estimado, o que representa uma mudança de paradigma em relação aos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional.

Um modelo de leilões com conteúdo local: análise e modelagem dos leilões de concessão de blocos exploratórios de petróleo e gás promovidos pela ANP no Brasil

Os leilões para concessão de blocos de petróleo no Brasil utilizam uma equação para formar a pontuação que define o vencedor. Cada participante deve submeter ao leiloeiro um lance composto por três atributos: Bônus de Assinatura (BA), Programa Exploratório Mínimo (PEM) e Conteúdo Local (CL). Cada atributo possui um peso na equação e a nota final de cada participante também depende dos lances ofertados pelos outros participantes. Apesar de leilões de petróleo serem muito estudados na economia, o leilão multi-atributos, do tipo máxima pontuação, ainda é pouco analisado, principalmente como mecanismo de alocação de direitos minerários. Este trabalho destaca a inserção do CL como atributo que transforma a estrutura, do que poderia ser um leilão simples de primeiro preço, em um leilão multi-atributos de máxima pontuação. Demonstra-se como o CL, através da curva de custos do projeto, está relacionado também ao Bônus de Assinatura, outro importante atributo da equação. Para compreender o impacto do fenômeno da inserção do CL, foram criados três casos de leilões hipotéticos, onde, dentre outras simplificações, o programa exploratório mínimo foi fixado para todas as empresas envolvidas. No caso base (Sem CL), simula-se a estrutura de um leilão de primeiro preço, onde apenas o BA define o vencedor do leilão. Já no caso forçado (CLO=CLR), há inserção do atributo CL, sendo o participante obrigado a cumprir o CL ofertado. Por fim, o caso completo (Com Multa) permite que o participante preveja a aplicação de multa por descumprimento do CL ofertado e, caso haja benefício econômico, descumpra efetivamente o CL ofertado. Considerando estes casos, argumenta-se que, apesar do o lucro das empresas e a eficiência do leilão não serem alterados, a inclusão do conteúdo local na estrutura do leilão pode ter reflexos consideráveis na receita do governo.

Desenvolvimento do cluster de economia criativa na área central da cidade de São Paulo

A presente dissertação trata da estruturação de um cluster de economia criativa no centro da cidade de São Paulo, voltado à área de tecnologia. A escolha da região central, assim como da economia criativa como impulso para a requalificação econômica e reocupação social da área, tem como objetivo enfrentar o problema do esvaziamento do centro da cidade, impulsionando o empreendedorismo e o posicionamento da região como local de convivência. Para análise da viabilidade e adequabilidade dessa proposta optou-se por uma pesquisa aplicada, cujos procedimentos englobaram uma breve revisão da literatura e também entrevistas com profissionais do setor criativo. Foram realizados estudos de casos internacionais e nacionais; estudo da legislação brasileira; avaliação do nível de desenvolvimento dos setores criativos em São Paulo e reflexão sobre as vocações da cidade. Com essa bagagem, iniciou-se a modelagem do cluster de tecnologia do Distrito Criativo da Sé/República, por meio da qual se objetivou traçar propostas de ações que pudessem ser desenvolvidas em curto, médio e longo prazos. Foram apresentadas ações mais imediatas, como a realização de um branding das atividades já em andamento, medidas realizáveis no médio prazo, como a concretização de parcerias, e outras um tanto mais estruturantes, como a requalificação de espaços e de projetos. Todas essas medidas almejam otimizar a ação municipal na busca pela reocupação da região e, consequentemente, na atração de investimentos para o local, de modo a frear o processo de degradação e alavancar o processo de reposicionamento do centro da cidade de São Paulo como valioso núcleo econômico e cultural para o Município. Com o presente trabalho, chega-se à conclusão de que há exemplos no Brasil e no mundo que podem servir de inspiração para o desenvolvimento da ação proposta e que a possibilidade de se gerar um impacto positivo, mesmo em épocas de dificuldades orçamentárias, é bastante plausível.

Educação, sustentabilidade e economia solidária: diálogos necessários para um outro mundo possível

O item não apresenta o texto completo, para aquisição do livro na íntegra você poderá acessar a Editora da UFSCar por meio do link: www.editora.ufscar.br

Avaliação ecológico-econômica do manguezal de Macau/RN e a importância da aplicação de práticas preservacionistas pela indústria petrolífera local

This work presents the results of a survey in oil-producing region of the Macau City, northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte. All work was performed under the Project for Monitoring Environmental Change and the Influence of Hydrodynamic forcing on Morphology Beach Grass Fields, Serra Potiguar in Macau, with the support of the Laboratory of Geoprocessing, linked to PRH22 - Training Program in Geology Geophysics and Information Technology Oil and Gas - Department of Geology/CCET/UFRN and the Post-Graduation in Science and Engineering Oil/PPGCEP/UFRN. Within the economic-ecological context, this paper assesses the importance of mangrove ecosystem in the region of Macau and its surroundings as well as in the following investigative exploration of potential areas for projects involving reforestation and / or Environmental Restoration. At first it was confirmed the ecological potential of mangrove forests, with primary functions: (i) protection and stabilization of the shoreline, (ii) nursery of marine life, and (iii) source of organic matter to aquatic ecosystems, (iv) refuge of species, among others. In the second phase, using Landsat imagery and techniques of Digital Image Processing (DIP), I came across about 18,000 acres of land that can be worked on environmental projects, being inserted in the rules signed the Kyoto Protocol to the market carbon. The results also revealed a total area of 14,723.75 hectares of activity of shrimp production and salting that can be harnessed for the social, economic and environmental potential of the region, considering that over 60% of this area, ie, 8,800 acres, may be used in the planting of the genus Avicennia considered by the literature that the species best sequesters atmospheric carbon, reaching a mean value of 59.79 tons / ha of mangrove

Associativismo nos municípios rurais: uma alternativa de desenvolvimento local em Portalegre/RN

This work aims to study the associations as mediating the process of social change and its importance for local development. The hypothesis is that associations, but bring dynamism to the smaller cities and improve the living conditions of their members, relegated to the background social sustainability, understood this as a permanent exercise of mobilization and participation in community life. The assumptions of the study are that the practice group has influenced the processes of local development in Brazilian rural municipalities through the mediation of government programs and projects aimed at combating rural poverty require social organization for their achievement. The concept of local development in this work was rescued from studies of political economy and sociology. But the concepts of collective action and partnerships advêem studies of political participation and social development of the theory of alternative or solidarity. The party consisted of an empirical case study conducted with four associations of farmers in the municipality of Portalegre-RN. Why choose qualitative study was used the technique of semi-structured interviews with the chairmen I members of associations and other actors considered essential to understanding the study (religious leaders, local political power and chairman of the union of rural workers), a total of 20 interviews, in addition to the observations of field and documentary research in records of the.ir own organizations. The survey results show that the performance of groups of farmers are key components and determinants for the production I marketing of agricultural products and for boosting the economy, as well as security for minimum levels of citizenship. Yet we are still in a space purpose of social change, which comes to confirm the initial hypothesis of this work

Ação social da Rede Caritas de Empreendimentos de Economia Solidária - EES: um estudo sobre valores e dinheiro

This study seeks to analyze the relationship between values and economic practices in social actions developed by the Caritas Network northeastern in projects linked to the Solidarity Economy over the last decade. This link between economic values and practices is discussed in relation to both Weber (Economy and Society) and Simmel (The Philosophy of Money) with a treatment of the affinities between both the economic sphere and religious ethics and the forms of sociability that bring individuals into contact with the circulation of money. The research scope was comprised of businesses monitored by Caritas in four northeastern states (Pernambuco, Paraíba, Alagoas and Rio Grande do Norte where we sought investigate the influence of ethical values, religious networks, and the economic practices of associations, groups and cooperatives. The field research took place over nine months with visits to local groups in their production areas, participation in trade fairs, training, exchanges, forums and regional meetings. Through this research we saw that money, the symbol and instrument of utilitarian reason, shapes individual behavior and socialization conditions since in business practices it is permeated by religious and ethical values when confronted by their experiences, values and neoliberal practices. The data and conclusions and relates to the overall research of the regional Caritas Network, the place it occupies in the Solidarity Economy and its influence on the sociability of business

Políticas públicas para o turismo e desenvolvimento local: reflexões a partir dos "caminhos de fé" no semi-árido potiguar

This study analyzes the event of the Feast of Our Lady of Grace, located in the municipality of Florania / RN as a tourism product, inserted in a process of transformation of a sacred place, in principle determined by religious motives, in a destination "tourist-religious". We seek to understand to what extent state intervention, with policies aimed at boosting the tourism sector as well as the interactions among key actors in the space, are able to modify and streamline the city of Florania, particularly Feast of Our Lady of Grace. The methodology also includes the review of the literature using the deductive method the application of questionnaires to the pilgrims, tourists and pilgrims totaling 150 questionnaires. Along with the economic agents of the municipality, 36 questionnaires were administered according to the model adopted by REDESIST. Complement this research interviews with key Officials of the Municipal Government and the Church. Despite the recognition by the actors of the importance of tourism to the economy of the city of Florania, encouraging the development of the sector is still lagging, some worked and policies / programs listed actually pass by the "Paths of Faith" of Florania. Concerning the Feast of Our Lady of Grace, the bottlenecks reported by researchers and economic agents are very partially affected by the policies / programs and when this occurs, the effort seems to be only reactive, resulting from the pressures experienced by the municipal government (mayor)

Turismo e economia solidária : uma análise nas cooperativas e associações de artesanato do Roteiro Seridó norte-rio-grandense

The present study has addressed the issues surrounding the Solidarity Economy and Tourism, their perspectives and contributions to the development process of local communities, as well as the connection point between the two. This study evaluated the extent to which social economy through cooperatives and associations in tourism has generated socio-economic improvements for the artisans of the tourist Seridó. The study made as to their objectives, was exploratory and descriptive, since it involved both standard techniques of data collection, questionnaires and systematic observation, and secondary research and case studies, which characterizes an exploratory research, according to Castro (2008 ). The results indicate significant improvements offered by the inclusion of members in groups (associations and cooperatives) in matters concerning health, education, interpersonal relationships, and access to consumer credit to the artisans. Through this study, one might also note that the inclusion of products and services in tourism is not a relevant factor for the socio-economic improvements observed for the elevated presence of middlemen in the marketing process

Feira livre e circuitos da economia urbana: um estudo da feira da Pedra, em São Bento (PB)

The Feira da Pedra is an extension of the open fair of São Bento in the State of Paraiba. It is a system of trade in textile goods produced by textile industry in manufacturing of hammocks and derivatives of this industry, present in some cities in the state of Paraiba and Rio Grande do Norte, as a survival strategy, inserted in the list of tertiary and retail of the urban economics of this city. It is thereby aimed to discuss about the urban economics, reflecting on the open fair system from the two circuits of urban economy, mainly in the context of the dynamics of the current period of geographic space, the technical-scientific-informational period, as the specific empirical object, the Feira da Pedra of São Bento (PB). For this, this research was carried out in two stages of operation: a) surveys of secondary data and b) primary data collection which were reported an operational triad: I) literature; II) documentary research, and III) research of field. The presence of the Feira da Pedra in São Bento has shown us one of the most important characteristics of this city, in order to present major economic, social and cultural benefits to the local population, and contribute to (re) production of sertanejo space, making lower part of the circuit of its urban economy. This activity has entailed several dynamics for urban space in this city, mainly because of attracting large numbers of people, carrying typical actions of its relationship with the urban space are são-bentense and built environment. Thus, its importance is not only a local and regional phenomenon, but also a cultural reference of a place in the geographical area of many paraibanos and norte-rio-grandenses subjects, as the case of this activity has brought to its weekly routine, this product resulting from the textile working of this area of Sertão Paraibano and Seridó Potiguar

O Circuito inferior da economia urbana em Mossoró: a dinâmica do comércio ambulante

This study was based on the analysis and understanding of the dynamics of the lower circuit of the economy and the size of the street trading in the city of Mossoro (RN). The operationalization of the theory of the two circuits of the urban economy, based on Santos (2008a) was essential to understand the street trading as part of the entire city of Mossoro. It was given emphasis on the study of the lower circuit of the economy and its coverage in the street trading in the commercial center of the city, specifically in street trading in Coronel Gurgel. The dynamics of that street reveals the different ways that the territory is used simultaneously by different social actors as pedestrians, consumers, business owners, and especially by street vendors. These vendors occupy the spaces along the streets of the city commercial center, placing their tents or stalls, especially on sidewalks, excellent strategic locations for the marketing of their products, due to the large influx of people seeking goods and services nearby. As methodological and technical procedures for gathering primary data, we opted for the use of questionnaires and interviews, with many users of the lower circuit, both consumers and vendors. The analysis of these questionnaires, along with the theoretical background, has revealed that there are several social and political conflicts related to the use of public spaces, such as sidewalks and flowerbeds, in the city commercial center, and that these conflicts are increasingly demonstrating that vendors need a space endowed with infrastructure to conduct their activities. The lack of efficiency of the government, as well as the slowness of their actions to organize a space that is able to properly fit salespersons, constitutes one of the main problems faced by these small traders who have limited financial resources and materials to get their activities through in the globalized world. At the same time, this study revealed the importance of these agents, as the last link of the urban economy, in the distribution of various consumer goods, enabling the satisfaction of some needs of the population, especially the poorer people

Estudo da competitividade em empresas industriais: o caso do arranjo produtivo local (APL) de Votuporanga

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A crise da economia colonial: as dimensões internas das práticas mercantilistas nos escritos de Brito e de Vilhena

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Competitividade e território: uma análise do arranjo produtivo local potencial de cerâmica artística do município de Porto Ferreira - SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Economia solidária na 10ª Região Administrativa do estado de São Paulo: possibilidades, limitações e contradições

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT