Skill Rating by Bayesian Inference

Systems Engineering often involves computer modelling the behaviour of proposed systems and their components. Where a component is human, fallibility must be modelled by a stochastic agent. The identification of a model of decision-making over quantifiable options is investigated using the game-domain of Chess. Bayesian methods are used to infer the distribution of players’ skill levels from the moves they play rather than from their competitive results. The approach is used on large sets of games by players across a broad FIDE Elo range, and is in principle applicable to any scenario where high-value decisions are being made under pressure.

Aumento dos preços dos combustíveis no país: um processo decisório racional?

Decisões são tomadas de diversas formas e em todos os momentos, mas foi o francês Henry Fayol que propôs um modelo estruturado para essa tomada de decisão, definindo o papel dos dirigentes e suas responsabilidades na administração da empresa. No desenvolvimento do trabalho, foram estudados diversos modelos de processo decisório, como o modelo clássico racionalista, o modelo da racionalidade limitada, o modelo político, as coalizões envolvidas no processo, teorias de responsabilidade social corporativa, teorias de governança corporativa, entre outros. À luz destes modelos e baseado na missão da Petrobras, de ser uma empresa segura e rentável, o autor faz uma suposição e enquadra o processo decisório da empresa no modelo clássico racionalista, focado na maximização dos lucros e resultados. Devido ao tamanho da empresa e à diversidade de assuntos para a tomada de decisão, o autor foca seus estudos na área de Abastecimento da Petrobras e analisa o processo de tomada de decisão para o aumento dos preços dos combustíveis, com o objetivo de avaliar a veracidade da sua suposição. A metodologia de pesquisa é baseada em uma pesquisa bibliográfica e investigação documental para avaliar se o modelo de tomada de decisão é realmente racional, ou se existem influências ou fatores externos que levam a um novo modelo de processo decisório. Após comparar o modelo racional com os dados e realizações da empresa, o autor faz uma triangulação de métodos, incluindo uma pesquisa de campo para avaliar a percepção dos gestores e stakeholders sobre o modelo de tomada de decisão da empresa. O autor entrevista 11 funcionários da Petrobras e 10 stakeholders externos com o intuito de coletar percepções sobre o processo decisório da Cia., finalizando com uma análise qualitativa dos dados baseada na técnica de análise de conteúdo. Com os resultados da pesquisa, o autor comprova, por meio de documentos da empresa, que a Diretoria Executiva da Petrobras é a responsável pela aprovação da política de preços da Cia. Dentre os fatores de influência no processo decisório da empresa, a inflação foi a de maior destaque, mostrando o viés político na relação entre o governo e a empresa. A política de preços da Cia. continua sendo de médio e longo prazo, acarretando em prejuízos no curto prazo para a área de Abastecimento da Petrobras. Após alcançar todos os objetivos intermediários do trabalho, o autor conclui que a suposição inicial é falsa e que o processo decisório para o aumento dos preços dos combustíveis na Petrobras se aproxima muito mais dos modelos de racionalidade limitada e político, com enfoque nos stakeholders e na competitividade do que do modelo clássico racionalista.

A fuzzy risk attitude classification based on prospect theory

Traditional methods do not actually measure peoples’ risk attitude naturally and precisely. Therefore, a fuzzy risk attitude classification method is developed. Since the prospect theory is usually considered as an effective model of decision making, the personalized parameters in prospect theory are firstly fuzzified to distinguish people with different risk attitudes, and then a fuzzy classification database schema is applied to calculate the exact value of risk value attitude and risk be- havior attitude. Finally, by applying a two-hierarchical clas- sification model, the precise value of synthetical risk attitude can be acquired.

Command decisions

The importance of effective command and decision-making training for fire service personnel, is discussed. The existing research in fireground decision making led to the formulation of a model of decision making, recognition primed decision making (RPD). The RPD model proposes that in recognizing a situation, the decision maker generates four by-products of recognition, which include expectancies, plausible goals, relevant cues, and typical actions. The RPD model can be used as a basis for training in decision making which can now be carried out in isolation and at very little cost.

The directions taken by young people on leaving compulsory education:a study in two Birmingham schools

The thesis addresses the relative importance of factors affecting working-class school-leavers' post-compulsory education transitions into post-sixteen education, training, employment and unemployment. It focuses on school-leavers choosing to enter the labour market, whether successfully or not and the influences affecting this choice. Methodologically, the longitudinal approach followed young people from before they left school to a period of months after. Discrepancies between young people's intended and actual destinations emphasised the diverse influences on post-sixteen transitions. These influences were investigated through a dynamic multi-method approach, drawing from quantitative and qualitative methodologies providing depth and insight while locating the research within a structural framework, allowing a comparison with local and national trends. Two crucial factors of school and gender affected young people's intended and actual post-sixteen directions. School policy, including treatment of disaffected pupils and recruitment to a large, on-site sixth form, influenced the number of pupils opting to continue their education. Girls were more likely to continue education after the end of compulsory schooling and gave different reasons to boys for doing so. Family and peer groups were influential, helping young people develop a 'horizon for action' incorporating habitus and subjective preferences that specified acceptable post-sixteen directions. These influences operated within the context of the local labour market. Perception of the latter rather than actual conditions informed post-sixteen decisions; however, labour market reality influenced the success of the school-leavers' endeavours. The research found that the economics-based rational choice model of decision-making did not apply to many working class school-leavers. The cohort made pragmatically rational decisions dependent on their 'horizon for action'. based on partial, occasionally inaccurate information. Policy recommendations consider the careers service and structure or school sixth forms as aiding successful transitions from compulsory education into education, employment or training. The maintenance allowance may be ineffectual in tackling its objective of social inclusion.

A Kuhnian crisis in neo-Darwinism

Policy issues which receive large inputs of scientific and technical information are frequently marred by acrimonious controversies between contributing experts. There are few if any examples of a public policy decision being based on a firm consensus of scientific and technical experts. Such a consensus is taken for granted by the `Rational' model of decision making and its derivatives. Comparing the dynamics of conflict in policy-relevant issues with those of conflict in `pure' science, one is struck by their great similarity. In both cases we witness examples of rhetorical statements about incompetence, conflicting interpretations of data, and interdisciplinary communication problems. Noting this similarity, this thesis attempts to answer the question, `Is there a similarity of cause: do the same causes lie at the roots of conflict in policy-relevant and policy-irrelevant science?' In answering this question this thesis examines recent controversies in a generally policy-irrelevant science - evolutionary biology. Three episodes of conflict are studied: the `Neutral Allele Theory', `Punctuated Equilibrium', and `Structuralist versus Functionalist approaches to evolution'. These controversies are analysed in terms of both Kuhn's account of scientific `crises' and Collingridge and Reeve's (1986) `Overcritical Model'. Comparing its findings with those of Collingridge and Reeve, this thesis concludes that, (a) there is a Kuhnian crisis in contemporary evolution theory and, (b) that common causes do lie at the roots of conflict in policy-relevant and policy-irrelevant science. Science has an inherent tendency to degenerate into acrimonious conflict but at the same time has mechanisms which eventually resolve such conflicts. Unfortunately, when science is incorporated into the policy arena these mechanisms are prevented from operating. This thesis reinforces Collingridge and Reeve's conclusion that science is of little use to policy.

Hope for a peaceful death and organ donation

The therapeutic, social and economic benefits of organ transplantation are irrefutable; however, organ shortages contribute to avoidable patient deaths and burgeoning health care costs. This problem can be addressed by increasing family consent to deceased organ donation. There are high levels of community support for deceased organ donation in Australia and yet, almost fifty percent of families decline the request to donate. Increasing the number of families who agree to deceased organ donation is key to increasing national and international transplantation rates. The purpose of this study was to identify the major factors that influence a family to agree or decline deceased organ donation during the process of decision-making. The aims of the study were three-fold: to identify the key stages and the major influencers’ in the decisionmaking process; to determine if hope, deep hope and trust played a role in the decision, and to explore families’ perceptions of their decision-making experience. The study utilised an exploratory case study approach to examine the family decisionmaking process of deceased organ donation. Following ethics approval, recruitment was conducted utilising a qualitative purposive snowball strategy across Australia. A pilot study was conducted to test the study procedures prior to the main data collection, and 22 participants who had been involved in a deceased organ donation decision from nine families were interviewed. In five deaths family members had agreed to organ donation, and in four deaths the family declined. A theoretical framework based on the Precaution Adoption Process Model of decision-making was applied to propose trust, hope and deep hope underpin family organ donation decisions. Thematic analysis was conducted and three key themes comprising ‘In the fog drowning’, ‘Harvesting humanity’, and ‘It’s all up to Mum’ were revealed. The study found women, and in particular mothers, played a significant role in organ donation decision-making, and that the decision-making is bounded by family needs of trust, hope and deep hope across the continuum of time. It also found families who had their trust, hope and deep hope needs met expressed satisfaction about their decision-making experience and agreed to organ donation. Some families perceived that organ donation was a sacrifice that was too great to endure, even if the deceased had previously indicated intent to donate, and therefore declined donation. This study found that families’ ideas of a peaceful death and organ donation are not mutually exclusive. It concludes that when decision-makers’ trust and deep hope needs are met they are more willing to agree to donation. This study recommends that the idea of a ‘right’ to a peaceful death should be aligned with deceased organ donation practices and normalised.

The relation of secondary student's career choice readiness to a six-phase model of career decision-making

Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision-making (CDM) a sixphase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tested the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. 266 Swiss secondary students completed measures tapping phase of CDM, career choice readiness, and number of considered career options. Career choice readiness showed an increase with phase of CDM. Later phases were generally associated with a larger increase in career choice readiness. Number of considered career options showed a curve-linear development with fewer options considered at the beginning and at the end of the process. Male students showed a larger variability in their distribution among the process with more male than female students in the first and last phase of the process. Implications for theory and practice are presented.

Emotions, Not Just Decision-Making Processes, Are Critical to an Evolutionary Model of Human Behavior

An evolutionary model of human behavior should privilege emotions: essential, phylogenetically ancient behaviors that learning and decision making only subserve. Infants and non-mammals lack advanced cognitive powers but still survive. Decision making is only a means to emotional ends, which organize and prioritize behavior. The emotion of pride/shame, or dominance striving, bridges the social and biological sciences via internalization of cultural norms.

Behavioral decision making and the levels of change: An application of the transtheoretical model to prenatal smoking in low -income women

Despite continued research and public health efforts to reduce smoking during pregnancy, prenatal cessation rates in the United States have decreased and the incidence of low birth weight has increased from 1985 to 1991. Lower socioeconomic status women who are at increased risk for poor pregnancy outcomes may be resistant to current intervention efforts during pregnancy. The purpose of this dissertation was to investigate the determinants of continued smoking and quitting among low-income pregnant women.^ Using data from cross-sectional surveys of 323 low-income pregnant smokers, the first study developed and tested measures of the pros and cons of smoking during pregnancy. The original decisional balance measure for smoking was compared with a new measure that added items thought to be more salient to the target population. Confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modeling showed neither the original nor new measure fit the data adequately. Using behavioral science theory, content from interviews with the population, and statistical evidence, two 7-item scales representing the pros and cons were developed from a portion (n = 215) of the sample and successfully cross-validated on the remainder of the sample (n = 108). Logistic regression found only pros were significantly associated with continued smoking. In a discriminant function analysis, stage of change was significantly associated with pros and cons of smoking.^ The second study examined the structural relationships between psychosocial constructs representing some of the levels of and the pros and cons of smoking. The cross-sectional design mandates that statements made regarding prediction do not prove causation or directionality from the data or methods analysis. Structural equation modeling found the following: more stressors and family criticism were significantly more predictive of negative affect than social support; a bi-directional relationship was found between negative affect and current nicotine addiction; and negative affect, addiction, stressors, and family criticism were significant predictors of pros of smoking.^ The findings imply reversing the trend of decreasing smoking cessation during pregnancy may require supplementing current interventions for this population of pregnant smokers with programs addressing nicotine addiction, negative affect, and other psychosocial factors such as family functioning and stressors. ^

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.