La securitización de la migración, una aproximación desde la cooperación migratoria entre Italia y Libia. 2008-2011

El interés de esta investigación es analizar los cambios en las políticas migratorias de Italia y Libia a partir del Tratado de amistad y cooperación firmado en 2008. Utilizando el concepto de securitización de Barry Buzan, se explican cuáles fueron las principales motivaciones para que ambos Estados tomaran la decisión de endurecer sus políticas migratorias para hacerle frente a la migración irregular. La securitización del tema de la migración se convirtió en el mecanismo principal del gobierno italiano para justificar el incumplimiento de acuerdos internacionales, dejando en un segundo plano la protecciónde los Derechos Humanos. Esta situación trae consigo altos costos humanitarios y pone en evidencia cómo Italia y Libia están tratando las nuevas amenazas como lo es la migración irregular en esta región.

Análisis de la estrategia de política exterior China hacia América Latina y el Caribe en las relaciones políticas con Brasil 2008 – 2011.

Análisis de las relaciones políticas entre China y Brasil a partir de 2008 en el marco de la estrategia de política exterior de China hacia América latina y el caribe y el cambio de nuevo orden mundial después de la Crisis Financiera Global de septiembre 2008.

Exchange rate pass-through to prices in macrodata: a comparative sensitivity analysis

This paper compares exchange rate pass-through to aggregate prices in the US, Germany and Japan across a number of dimensions. Building on the empirical approaches in the recent literature, our contribution is to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis of pass-through estimates. We find that the econometric method, data frequency and variable proxy employed matter for the precision of details, yet they often agree on some general trends. Thus, pass-through to import prices has declined in the 1990s relative to the 1980s, pass-through to export prices remains country-specific and pass-through to consumer prices is nowadays negligible in all three economies we considered.

Building resilience in the face of recurring environmental crisis in African Sahel

The present food shortages in the Horn of Africa and the West African Sahel are affecting 31 million people. Such continuing and future crises require that people in the region adapt to an increasing and potentially irreversible global sustainability challenge. Given this situation and that short-term weather and seasonal climate forecasting have limited skill for West Africa, the Rainwatch project illustrates the value of near real-time monitoring and improved communication for the unfavourable 2011 West African monsoon, the resulting severe drought-induced humanitarian impacts continuing into 2012, and their exacerbation by flooding in 2012. Rainwatch is now coupled with a boundary organization (Africa Climate Exchange, AfClix) with the aim of integrating the expertise and actions of relevant institutions, agencies and stakeholders to broker ground-based dialogue to promote resilience in the face of recurring crisis.

Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.

Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the anufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating echnological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paper is empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chile and Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currency overvaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is being inflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demand and prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrial sector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrialization if there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

Micro evidence on brazilian price stickiness and its consequences for sectoral real exchange rate and inflation persistence

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the price-setting behavior in Brazil and, in particular, the effects on inflation and good-level real exchange rate persistence. This thesis is composed by three Chapters. In the first Chapter, we present the main stylized facts about the behavior of retail prices in Brazil using micro data from the CPI index computed by the Fundação Getulio Vargas. Moreover we construct time series of price-setting statistics and relate them to macroeconomic variables using regression analyses. In Chapter 2, we investigated the relevance of heterogeneity in countries price stickiness on good-level real exchange rate persistence, considering a newly constructed panel data set of relative prices of 115 common products between the U.S. and Brazil. Chapter 3 is devoted to the relation between sectoral price stickiness and inflation persistence.

Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis

The aim of this article is to assess the role of real effective exchange rate volatility on long-run economic growth for a set of 82 advanced and emerging economies using a panel data set ranging from 1970 to 2009. With an accurate measure for exchange rate volatility, the results for the two-step system GMM panel growth models show that a more (less) volatile RER has significant negative (positive) impact on economic growth and the results are robust for different model specifications. In addition to that, exchange rate stability seems to be more important to foster long-run economic growth than exchange rate misalignment

A crise bancária irlandesa de 2008-2011

A Irlanda é um país que décadas anteriores chegou a ser chamado de “O Tigre Celta”, devido a seu crescimento econômico expressivo. Após a crise financeira mundial e a ruptura de uma bolha imobiliária, entrou em grande recessão, com um sistema bancário insolvente, a ponto da necessidade de intervenção de organizações financeiras mundiais. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a crise do setor bancário irlandês de 2008 a 2011. A dissertação analisa a origem da crise, os métodos de solução e seu custo social.

Sovereignty, exchange rate and the Euro crisis

This paper presents an interpretation of the European crisis based on the balance of payments imbalances within the Eurozone and highlighting the role of the “internal” real exchange rates as a primary cause of the crisis. It explores the structural contradictions that turn the Euro into a “foreign currency” for each individual Eurozone country. These contradictions imply the inability of national central banks to monetize the public and private debts, which makes the Euro crisis a sovereign crisis similar to those typical of emerging countries, but whose solution presents additional obstacles.

Optimal exchange rate policy, optimal incomplete taxation and business cycles

Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recur- rent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is usually followed by an economic downturn (boom). This essay explains why a benevolent government should pursue Þscal and monetary policies that lead to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. It is shown that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average de- valuation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. A currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).