Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Annual Average Daily Traffic on the Interstate System, 2012

Vehicle Traffic Map produced by the Iowa Department of Transportation.

Dispersal (Entropy) and Recognition (Information) as Foundations of Emergence and Dissolvence

The objective of this essay is to reflect on a possible relation between entropy and emergence. A qualitative, relational approach is followed. We begin by highlighting that entropy includes the concept of dispersal, relevant to our enquiry. Emergence in complex systems arises from the coordinated behavior of their parts. Coordination in turn necessitates recognition between parts, i.e., information exchange. What will be argued here is that the scope of recognition processes between parts is increased when preceded by their dispersal, which multiplies the number of encounters and creates a richer potential for recognition. A process intrinsic to emergence is dissolvence (aka submergence or top-down constraints), which participates in the information-entropy interplay underlying the creation, evolution and breakdown of higher-level entities.

The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

A tutorial review of electrical neuroimaging from group-average to single-trial event-related potentials.

This tutorial review details some of the recent advances in signal analyses applied to event-related potential (ERP) data. These "electrical neuroimaging" analyses provide reference-independent measurements of response strength and response topography that circumvent statistical and interpretational caveats of canonical ERP analysis methods while also taking advantage of the greater information provided by high-density electrode montages. Electrical neuroimaging can be applied across scales ranging from group-averaged ERPs to single-subject and single-trial datasets. We illustrate these methods with a tutorial dataset and place particular emphasis on their suitability for studies of clinical and/or developmental populations.

Models for vertical wood density of Scots pine, Norway spruce and birch stems, and their application to determine average wood density

Abstract

The minimum tree for a given zero-entropy period

We answer the following question: given any n∈ℕ, which is the minimum number of endpoints en of a tree admitting a zero-entropy map f with a periodic orbit of period n? We prove that en=s1s2…sk−∑i=2ksisi+1…sk, where n=s1s2…sk is the decomposition of n into a product of primes such that si≤si+1 for 1≤ientropy: if f has a periodic orbit of period m with em>e, then the topological entropy of f is positive

The continuous wavelet transform as a maximum entropy solution of the corresponding inverse problem

The continuous wavelet transform is obtained as a maximumentropy solution of the corresponding inverse problem. It is well knownthat although a signal can be reconstructed from its wavelet transform,the expansion is not unique due to the redundancy of continuous wavelets.Hence, the inverse problem has no unique solution. If we want to recognizeone solution as "optimal", then an appropriate decision criterion hasto be adopted. We show here that the continuous wavelet transform is an"optimal" solution in a maximum entropy sense.

Average performance analysis of circular and hyperbolic geolocation

A comparative performance analysis of four geolocation methods in terms of their theoretical root mean square positioning errors is provided. Comparison is established in two different ways: strict and average. In the strict type, methods are examined for a particular geometric configuration of base stations(BSs) with respect to mobile position, which determines a givennoise profile affecting the respective time-of-arrival (TOA) or timedifference-of-arrival (TDOA) estimates. In the average type, methodsare evaluated in terms of the expected covariance matrix ofthe position error over an ensemble of random geometries, so thatcomparison is geometry independent. Exact semianalytical equationsand associated lower bounds (depending solely on the noiseprofile) are obtained for the average covariance matrix of the positionerror in terms of the so-called information matrix specific toeach geolocation method. Statistical channel models inferred fromfield trials are used to define realistic prior probabilities for therandom geometries. A final evaluation provides extensive resultsrelating the expected position error to channel model parametersand the number of base stations.

On the q=1/2 non-extensive maximum entropy distribution

A detailed mathematical analysis on the q = 1/2 non-extensive maximum entropydistribution of Tsallis' is undertaken. The analysis is based upon the splitting of such adistribution into two orthogonal components. One of the components corresponds to theminimum norm solution of the problem posed by the fulfillment of the a priori conditionson the given expectation values. The remaining component takes care of the normalizationconstraint and is the projection of a constant onto the Null space of the "expectation-values-transformation"

A non-extensive maximum entropy based regulations method for bad conditioned inverse problems

A regularization method based on the non-extensive maximum entropy principle is devised. Special emphasis is given to the q=1/2 case. We show that, when the residual principle is considered as constraint, the q=1/2 generalized distribution of Tsallis yields a regularized solution for bad-conditioned problems. The so devised regularized distribution is endowed with a component which corresponds to the well known regularized solution of Tikhonov (1977).

Frames: a maximum entropy statistical estimate of the inverse problem

A maximum entropy statistical treatment of an inverse problem concerning frame theory is presented. The problem arises from the fact that a frame is an overcomplete set of vectors that defines a mapping with no unique inverse. Although any vector in the concomitant space can be expressed as a linear combination of frame elements, the coefficients of the expansion are not unique. Frame theory guarantees the existence of a set of coefficients which is “optimal” in a minimum norm sense. We show here that these coefficients are also “optimal” from a maximum entropy viewpoint.

An Analysis of Eye Scanpath Entropy in a Progressively Forming Virtual Environment

A sign of presence in virtual environments is that people respond to situations and events as if they were real, where response may be considered at many different levels, ranging from unconscious physiological responses through to overt behavior,emotions, and thoughts. In this paper we consider two responses that gave different indications of the onset of presence in a gradually forming environment. Two aspects of the response of people to an immersive virtual environment were recorded: their eye scanpath, and their skin conductance response (SCR). The scenario was formed over a period of 2 min, by introducing an increasing number of its polygons in random order in a head-tracked head-mounted display. For one group of experimental participants (n 8) the environment formed into one in which they found themselves standing on top of a 3 m high column. For a second group of participants (n 6) the environment was otherwise the same except that the column was only 1 cm high, so that they would be standing at normal ground level. For a third group of participants (n 14) the polygons never formed into a meaningful environment. The participants who stood on top of the tall column exhibited a significant decrease in entropy of the eye scanpath and an increase in the number of SCR by 99 s into the scenario, at a time when only 65% of the polygons had been displayed. The ground level participants exhibited a similar decrease in scanpath entropy, but not the increase in SCR. The random scenario grouping did not exhibit this decrease in eye scanpath entropy. A drop in scanpath entropy indicates that the environment had cohered into a meaningful perception. An increase in the rate of SCR indicates the perception of an aversive stimulus. These results suggest that on these two dimensions (scanpath entropy and rate of SCR) participants were responding realistically to the scenario shown in the virtual environment. In addition, the response occurred well before the entire scenario had been displayed, suggesting that once a set of minimal cues exists within a scenario,it is enough to form a meaningful perception. Moreover, at the level of the sympathetic nervous system, the participants who were standing on top of the column exhibited arousal as if their experience might be real. This is an important practical aspect of the concept of presence.

Prevalence of iodine inadequacy in Switzerland assessed by the estimated average requirement cut-point method in relation to the impact of iodized salt.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the iodine status of Swiss population groups and to evaluate the influence of iodized salt as a vector for iodine fortification. DESIGN: The relationship between 24 h urinary iodine and Na excretions was assessed in the general population after correcting for confounders. Single-day intakes were estimated assuming that 92 % of dietary iodine was excreted in 24 h urine. Usual intake distributions were derived for male and female population groups after adjustment for within-subject variability. The estimated average requirement (EAR) cut-point method was applied as guidance to assess the inadequacy of the iodine supply. SETTING: Public health strategies to reduce the dietary salt intake in the general population may affect its iodine supply. SUBJECTS: The study population (1481 volunteers, aged ≥15 years) was randomly selected from three different linguistic regions of Switzerland. RESULTS: The 24 h urine samples from 1420 participants were determined to be properly collected. Mean iodine intakes obtained for men (n 705) and women (n 715) were 179 (sd 68.1) µg/d and 138 (sd 57.8) µg/d, respectively. Urinary Na and Ca, and BMI were significantly and positively associated with higher iodine intake, as were men and non-smokers. Fifty-four per cent of the total iodine intake originated from iodized salt. The prevalence of inadequate iodine intake as estimated by the EAR cut-point method was 2 % for men and 14 % for women. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated prevalence of inadequate iodine intake was within the optimal target range of 2-3 % for men, but not for women.