Under-ice fauna, sea-ice concentration, sea-ice thickness and under-ice water parameters from the Eurasian central Arctic Ocean during POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXVII/3 (PS80) in August-September 2012

Arctic sea-ice decline is expected to have a significant impact on Arctic marine ecosystems. Ice-associated fauna play a key role in this context because they constitute a unique part of Arctic biodiversity and transmit carbon from sea-ice algae into pelagic and benthic food webs. Our study presents the first regional-scale record of under-ice faunal distribution and the environmental characteristics of under-ice habitats throughout the Eurasian Basin. Sampling was conducted with a Surface and Under-Ice Trawl, equipped with a sensor array recording ice thickness and other physical parameters during trawling. We identified 2 environmental regimes, broadly coherent with the Nansen and Amundsen Basins. The Nansen Basin regime was distinguished from the Amundsen Basin regime by heavier sea-ice conditions, higher surface salinities and higher nitrate + nitrite concentrations. We found a diverse (28 species) under-ice community throughout the Eurasian Basin. Change in community structure reflected differences in the relative contribution of abundant species. Copepods (Calanus hyperboreus and C. glacialis) dominated in the Nansen Basin regime. In the Amundsen Basin regime, amphipods (Apherusa glacialis, Themisto libellula) dominated. Polar cod Boreogadus saida was present throughout the sampling area. Abrupt changes from a dominance of ice-associated amphipods at ice-covered stations to a dominance of pelagic amphipods (T. libellula) at nearby ice-free stations emphasised the decisive influence of sea ice on small-scale patterns in the surface-layer community. The observed response in community composition to different environmental regimes indicates potential long-term alterations in Arctic marine ecosystems as the Arctic Ocean continues to change.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.