981 resultados para proxy data


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The evolution of landscapes crucially depends on the climate history. This is particularly evident in South America where landscape responses to orbital climate shifts have been well documented. However, while most studies have focused on inferring temperature variations from paleoclimate proxy data, estimates of water budget changes have been complicated because of a lack of adequate physical information. Here, we present a methodology and related results, which allowed us to extract water discharge values from the sedimentary record of the 40 Ka-old fluvial terrace deposits in the Pisco valley, western Peru. In particular, this valley hosts a Quaternary cut-and-fill succession that we used, in combination with beryllium-10 (10Be)-based sediment flux, gauging records, channel geometries and grain size measurements, to quantitatively assess sediment and water discharge values c. 40 Ka ago in relation to present-day conditions. We compare these discharge estimates to the discharge regime of the modern Pisco River and find that the water discharge of the paleo-Pisco River, during the Minchin pluvial period c. 40 Ka ago, was c. 7–8 times greater than the modern Pisco River if considering the mean and the maximum water discharge. In addition, the calculations show that inferred water discharge estimates are mainly dependent on channel gradients and grain size values, and to a lesser extent on channel width measures. Finally, we found that the c. 40 Ka-old Minchin terrace material was poorer sorted than the modern deposits, which might reflect that sediment transport during the past period was characterized by a larger divergence from equal mobility compared to the modern situation. In summary, the differences in grain size distribution and inferred water discharge estimates between the modern and the paleo-Pisco River suggests that the 40 Ka-old Minchin period was characterized by a wetter climate and more powerful flood events.

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Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) is thought to be more than 1.2 million years old and host more than 300 endemic species. As a target of the International Continental scientific Drilling Program (ICDP), a successful deep drilling campaign was carried out within the scope of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project in 2013. Here, we present lithological, sedimentological, and (bio-)geochemical data from the upper 247.8 m composite depth of the overall 569 m long DEEP site sediment succession from the central part of the lake. According to an age model, which is based on 11 tephra layers (first-order tie points) and on tuning of bio-geochemical proxy data to orbital parameters (second-order tie points), the analyzed sediment sequence covers the last 637 kyr. The DEEP site sediment succession consists of hemipelagic sediments, which are interspersed by several tephra layers and infrequent, thin (< 5 cm) mass wasting deposits. The hemipelagic sediments can be classified into three different lithotypes. Lithotype 1 and 2 deposits comprise calcareous and slightly calcareous silty clay and are predominantly attributed to interglacial periods with high primary productivity in the lake during summer and reduced mixing during winter. The data suggest that high ion and nutrient concentrations in the lake water promoted calcite precipitation and diatom growth in the epilimnion during MIS15, 13, and 5. Following a strong primary productivity, highest interglacial temperatures can be reported for marine isotope stages (MIS) 11 and 5, whereas MIS15, 13, 9, and 7 were comparably cooler. Lithotype 3 deposits consist of clastic, silty clayey material and predominantly represent glacial periods with low primary productivity during summer and longer and intensified mixing during winter. The data imply that the most severe glacial conditions at Lake Ohrid persisted during MIS16, 12, 10, and 6, whereas somewhat warmer temperatures can be inferred for MIS14, 8, 4, and 2. Interglacial-like conditions occurred during parts of MIS14 and 8.

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In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

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Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

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In the present study, proxy data concerning changes in atmospheric CO2 and climatic conditions from the Late Eocene to the Early Miocene were acquired by applying palaeobotanical methods. Fossil floras from 10 well-documented locations in Saxony, Germany, were investigated with respect to (1) stomatal density/index of fossil leaves from three different taxa (Eotrigonobalanus furcinervis, Laurophyllum pseudoprinceps and Laurophyllum acutimontanum), (2) the coexistence approach (CA) based on nearest living relatives (NLR) and (3) leaf margin analysis (LMA). Whereas the results of approach (1) indicate changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, approaches (2) and (3) provide climate data. The results of the analysis of stomatal parameters indicate that the atmospheric CO2 concentration was higher during the Late Eocene than during the Early Oligocene and increased towards the Late Oligocene. A lower atmospheric pCO2 level after the Late Eocene is also suggested by an increase in marine palaeoproductivity at this time. From the Late Oligocene onwards, no changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration can be detected with the present data. For the considered sites, the results of the coexistence approach and of the leaf margin analysis document a significant cooling event from the Late Eocene to the Early Oligocene. The pCO2 decrease from the Late Eocene to the Early Oligocene indicated by the stomatal data raised in this study was thus coupled to a temperature decrease which is reflected by the present datasets. From the Early Oligocene onwards, however, no further fundamental climate change can be inferred for the considered locations. The pCO2 increase from the Early Oligocene to the Late Oligocene, which is indicated by the present data, is thus not accompanied by a climate change at the considered sites. A warming event during the Late Oligocene is, however, recorded by marine climate archives. According to the present data, no change in pCO2 occurred during the cooling event at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary, which is also indicated by marine data. The quality and validity of stomatal parameters as sensors for atmospheric CO2 concentration are discussed.

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The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is a major transient warming event that occurred at ~ 40 Ma and reversed a long-term cooling trend through the early and middle Eocene. We report the results of a high-resolution, quantitative study of siliceous microfossils at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 748 and 749 (Southern Kerguelen Plateau, Southern Ocean, ~ 58°S) across a ~ 1.4 myr interval spanning the MECO event. At both sites, a significant increase in biosiliceous sedimentation is associated with the MECO event. Rich siliceous planktonic microfossil assemblages in this interval are unusual in that they are dominated by ebridians, with radiolarians as a secondary major component. Silicoflagellates and diatoms comprise only a minor fraction of the assemblage, in contrast to siliceous microfossil assemblages that characterize modern Southern Ocean sediments. Based on our new siliceous microfossil records, we interpret two ~ 300 kyr periods of elevated nutrient availability in Southern Ocean surface waters which span the peak warming interval of the MECO and the post-MECO cooling interval. A diverse assemblage of large silicoflagellates belonging to the Dictyocha grandis plexus is linked to the rapid rise in sea-surface temperatures immediately prior to peak warmth, and a pronounced turnover is observed in both ebridian and silicoflagellate assemblages at the onset of peak warming. The interval of peak warmth is also characterized by high abundance of cosmopolitan ebridians (e.g., Ammodochium spp.) and silicoflagellates (e.g., Naviculopsis spp.), and increased abundance of tropical and subtropical diatom genera (e.g., Asterolampra and Azpeitia). These observations confirm the relative pattern of temperature change interpreted from geochemical proxy data at multiple Southern Ocean sites. Furthermore, rapid assemblage changes in both autotrophic and heterotrophic siliceous microfossil groups indicate a reorganization of Southern Ocean plankton communities in response to greenhouse warming during the MECO event.

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It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

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Changes in paleoclimate and paleoproductivity patterns have been identified by analysing, in conjunction with other available proxy data, the coccolithophore assemblages from core MD03-2699, located in the Portuguese margin in the time interval from the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13/14 boundary to MIS 9 (535 to 300 ka). During the Mid-Brunhes event, the assemblages associated with the eccentricity minima are characterised by higher nannoplankton accumulation rate (NAR) values and by the blooming of the opportunistic genus Gephyrocapsa. Changes in coccolithophore abundance are also related to glacial-interglacial cycles. Higher NAR and numbers of coccoliths/g mainly occurred during the interglacial periods, while these values decreased during the glacial periods. Superimposed on the glacial/interglacial cycles, climatic and paleoceanographic variability has been observed on precessional timescales. The structure of the assemblages highlights the prevailing long-term influence of the Portugal (PC) and Iberian Poleward (IPC) Currents, following half and full precession harmonics, related to the migration of the Azores High (AH) Pressure System. Small Gephyrocapsa and Coccolithus pelagicus braarudii are regarded as good indicators for periods of prevailing PC influence. Gephyrocapsa caribbeanica, Syracosphaera spp., Rhabdosphaera spp. and Umbilicosphaera sibogae denote periods of IPC influence. Our data also highlights the increased percentages of Coccolithus pelagicus pelagicus during the occurrence of episodes of very cold and low salinity surface water, probably related to abrupt climatic events and millennial-scale oscillations of the AH/Icelandic Low (IL) System.

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Although the permanently to seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean is a unique and sensitive component in the Earth's climate system, the knowledge of its long-term climate history remains very limited due to the restricted number of pre-Quaternary sedimentary records. During Polarstern Expedition PS87/2014, we discovered multiple submarine landslides over a distance of >350 km along Lomonosov Ridge. Removal of younger sediments from steep headwalls has led to exhumation of Miocene to early Quaternary sediments close to the seafloor, allowing the retrieval of such old sediments with gravity cores. Multi-proxy biomarker analyses of these gravity cores reveal for the first time that the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean was relatively warm (4-7°C) and ice-free during summer, whereas sea ice occurred during spring and autumn/winter. A comparison of our proxy data with Miocene climate simulations seems to favour relatively high late Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These new findings from the Arctic region provide new benchmarks for groundtruthing global climate reconstructions and modeling.

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A sediment core from the West Spitsbergen continental margin was studied to reconstruct climate and paleoceanographic variability during the last ~9 ka in the eastern Fram Strait. Our multiproxy evidence suggests that the establishment of the modern oceanographic configuration in the eastern Fram Strait occurred stepwise, in response to the postglacial sea-level rise and the related onset of modern sea-ice production on the shallow Siberian shelves. The late Early and Mid Holocene interval (9 to 5 ka) was generally characterized by relatively unstable conditions. High abundance of the subpolar planktic foraminifer species Turborotalita quinqueloba implies strong intensity of Atlantic Water (AW) inflow with high productivity and/or high AW temperatures, resulting in a strong heat flux to the Arctic. A series of short-lived cooling events (8.2, 6.9. and 6.1 ka) occurred superimposed on the warm late Early and Mid Holocene conditions. Our proxy data imply that simultaneous to the complete postglacial flooding of Arctic shallow shelves and the initiation of modern sea-ice production, strong advance of polar waters initiated modern oceanographic conditions in the eastern Fram Strait at ~5.2 ka. The Late Holocene was marked by the dominance of the polar planktic foraminifer species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a significant expansion of sea ice/icebergs, and strong stratification of the water column. Although planktic foraminiferal assemblages as well as sea surface and subsurface temperatures suggest a return of slightly strengthened advection of subsurface Atlantic Water after 3 ka, a relatively stable cold-water layer prevailed at the sea surface and the study site was probably located within the seasonally fluctuating marginal ice zone during the Neoglacial period.

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Records of skeletal delta18O in monthly and Sr/Ca ratios in half-yearly resolution were obtained from a Bermuda coral (Diploria labyrinthiformis) for the time period 1520-1603 (+/-15 yr) AD within the Little Ice Age. Annual and decadal averages of both sea-surface temperature proxies indicate temperature variabilities of 0.5°C (standard deviation) and 0.3°C, respectively. Both numbers are close to recent instrumental observations. Approximately 30% of the interannual time series variance of delta18O is concentrated in broad bands centered at periods of ~30, 16, and 7.8 yr, the last two reflecting the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Although this large-scale climate signal is present in the record, there is no correlation with other contemporaneous northern hemisphere proxy data, resulting from spatial differences in climate variability.

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The modern subarctic Pacific is characterized by a steep salinity-driven surface water stratification, which hampers the supply of saline and nutrient-rich deeper waters into the euphotic zone, limiting productivity. However, the strength of the halocline might have varied in the past. Here, we present diatom oxygen (d18Odiat) and silicon (d30Sidiat) stable isotope data from the open subarctic North-East (NE) Pacific (SO202-27-6; Gulf of Alaska), in combination with other proxy data (Neogloboquadrina pachydermasin d18O, biogenic opal, Ca and Fe intensities, IRD), to evaluate changes in surface water hydrography and productivity during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, characterized by millennial-scale temperature changes (Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles) documented in Greenland ice cores.

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Geochemical analyses of extraordinarily well preserved late Aptian-early Albian foraminifera from Blake Nose (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1049) reveal rapid shifts of d18O, d13C, and 87Sr/88Sr in the subtropical North Atlantic that may be linked to a major planktic foraminifer extinction event across the Aptian/Albian boundary. The abruptness of the observed geochemical shifts and their coincidence with a sharp lithologic contact is explained as an artifact of a previously undetected hiatus of 0.8-1.4 million years at the boundary contact, but the values before and after the hiatus indicate that major oceanographic changes occurred at this time. 87Sr/88Sr increase by ~0.000200, d13C values decrease by 1.5 per mil to 2.2 per mil, and d18O values decrease by ~1.0 per mil (planktics) to 0.5 per mil (benthics) across the hiatus. Further, both 87Sr/88Sr ratios and d18O values during the Albian are anomalously high. The 87Sr/88Sr values deviate from known patterns to such a degree that an explanation requires either the presence of inter-basin differences in seawater 87Sr/88Sr during the Albian or revision of the seawater curve. For d18O, planktic values in some Aptian samples likely reflect a diagenetic overprint, but preservation is excellent in the rest of the section. In well preserved material, benthic foraminiferal values are largely between 0.5 and 0.0 per mil and planktic samples are largely between 0.0 per mil to -1.0 per mil, with a brief excursion to -2.0 per mil during OAE 1b. Using standard assumptions for Cretaceous isotopic paleotemperature calculations, the d18O values suggest bottom water temperatures (at ~1000 -1500 m) of 8-10°C and surface temperatures of 10-14°C, which are 4-6°C and 10-16°C cooler, respectively, than present-day conditions at the same latitude. The cool subtropical sea surface temperature estimates are especially problematic because other paleoclimate proxy data for the mid-Cretaceous and climate model predictions suggest that subtropical sea surface temperatures should have been the same as or warmer than at present. Because of their exquisite preservation, whole scale alteration of the analyzed foraminifera is an untenable explanation. Our proposed solution is a high evaporative fractionation factor in the early Albian North Atlantic that resulted in surface waters with higher d18O values at elevated salinities than commonly cited in Cretaceous studies. A high fractionation factor is consistent with high rates of vapor export and a vigorous hydrological cycle and, like the Sr isotopes, implies limited connectivity among the individual basins of the Early Cretaceous proto-Atlantic ocean.

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We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. This site provides informations about the Holocene temperature trends as simulated by the models. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the models shows a high latitude cooling and a low latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 years. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We tested if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We tested different seasons and depths in the model to compare the proxy data trends, and can reconcile only part of the mismatches on a regional scale. We therefore considered the additional environmental factor changes in the planktonic organisms' habitat depth and a time-shift in the recording season to diagnose whether invoking those environmental factors can help reconciling the proxy records and the model simulations. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model-data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modeled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behavior of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Our findings indicate that climate model and reconstructed temperature trends are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, thus providing a challenge for the interpretation of proxy data as well as the models' sensitivity to orbital forcing.