Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

Large body size in an island-dwelling bird : a microevolutionary analysis

Island races of passerine birds display repeated evolution towards larger body size compared with their continental ancestors. The Capricorn silvereye (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus) has become up to six phenotypic standard deviations bigger in several morphological measures since colonization of an island approximately 4000 years ago. We estimated the genetic variance-covariance (G) matrix using full-sib and 'animal model' analyses, and selection gradients, for six morphological traits under field conditions in three consecutive cohorts of nestlings. Significant levels of genetic variance were found for all traits. Significant directional selection was detected for wing and tail lengths in one year and quadratic selection on culmen depth in another year. Although selection gradients on many traits were negative, the predicted evolutionary response to selection of these traits for all cohorts was uniformly positive. These results indicate that the G matrix and predicted evolutionary responses are consistent with those of a population evolving in the manner observed in the island passerine trend, that is, towards larger body size.

One size fits one : customizing work through manager-employee exchange

While prior research has addressed how collective workplace outcomes are negotiated between employers and trade unions, less attention has been afforded to the ‘everyday’, micro-level exchanges between managers and employees in adjusting work, alongside the ‘standard’ terms and conditions set out in employment contracts. Building on previous work on idiosyncratic deals and requests for flexible scheduling, this article presents the findings from a survey of Australian parents which addressed manager-employee exchanges which led to customized work arrangements. The survey examined the frequency with which various employment terms and conditions were negotiated, who initiated the interactions, where they occurred, and the extent of perceived compromise. The study revealed that manager-employee exchanges occur frequently in the context of roles in nuclear and extended families, and are influenced by the parameters around which formal childcare and educational settings function. Women rated the exchanges as more important than men, but men and women were similarly comfortable with the interactions and satisfied with outcomes. The findings have important implications for managers and organizations in terms of balancing the goals of efficiency with employees’ preferences for workplace flexibility and other terms beyond those which are standardized.

Optimal image sample size for corneal nerve morphometry

Purpose Arbitrary numbers of corneal confocal microscopy images have been used for analysis of corneal subbasal nerve parameters under the implicit assumption that these are a representative sample of the central corneal nerve plexus. The purpose of this study is to present a technique for quantifying the number of random central corneal images required to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy in the measurement of corneal nerve fiber length and branch density. Methods Every possible combination of 2 to 16 images (where 16 was deemed the true mean) of the central corneal subbasal nerve plexus, not overlapping by more than 20%, were assessed for nerve fiber length and branch density in 20 subjects with type 2 diabetes and varying degrees of functional nerve deficit. Mean ratios were calculated to allow comparisons between and within subjects. Results In assessing nerve branch density, eight randomly chosen images not overlapping by more than 20% produced an average that was within 30% of the true mean 95% of the time. A similar sampling strategy of five images was 13% within the true mean 80% of the time for corneal nerve fiber length. Conclusions The “sample combination analysis” presented here can be used to determine the sample size required for a desired level of accuracy of quantification of corneal subbasal nerve parameters. This technique may have applications in other biological sampling studies.

Orthogonality defect and reduced search-space size for solving integer least-squares problems

In the context of ambiguity resolution (AR) of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), decorrelation among entries of an ambiguity vector, integer ambiguity search and ambiguity validations are three standard procedures for solving integer least-squares problems. This paper contributes to AR issues from three aspects. Firstly, the orthogonality defect is introduced as a new measure of the performance of ambiguity decorrelation methods, and compared with the decorrelation number and with the condition number which are currently used as the judging criterion to measure the correlation of ambiguity variance-covariance matrix. Numerically, the orthogonality defect demonstrates slightly better performance as a measure of the correlation between decorrelation impact and computational efficiency than the condition number measure. Secondly, the paper examines the relationship of the decorrelation number, the condition number, the orthogonality defect and the size of the ambiguity search space with the ambiguity search candidates and search nodes. The size of the ambiguity search space can be properly estimated if the ambiguity matrix is decorrelated well, which is shown to be a significant parameter in the ambiguity search progress. Thirdly, a new ambiguity resolution scheme is proposed to improve ambiguity search efficiency through the control of the size of the ambiguity search space. The new AR scheme combines the LAMBDA search and validation procedures together, which results in a much smaller size of the search space and higher computational efficiency while retaining the same AR validation outcomes. In fact, the new scheme can deal with the case there are only one candidate, while the existing search methods require at least two candidates. If there are more than one candidate, the new scheme turns to the usual ratio-test procedure. Experimental results indicate that this combined method can indeed improve ambiguity search efficiency for both the single constellation and dual constellations respectively, showing the potential for processing high dimension integer parameters in multi-GNSS environment.

Larger or broader : performance implications of size and diversity of the knowledge worker's egocentric network. [更多或更广：知识员工个人中心网络大小和 多样性对绩效的影响]

Management scholars and practitioners emphasize the importance of the size and diversity of a knowledge worker's social network. Constraints on knowledge workers’ time and energy suggest that more is not always better. Further, why and how larger networks contribute to valuable outcomes deserves further understanding. In this study, we offer hypotheses to shed insight on the question of the diminishing returns of large networks and the specific form of network diversity that may contribute to innovative performance among knowledge workers. We tested our hypotheses using data collected from 93 R&D engineers in a Sino-German automobile electronics company located in China. Study findings identified an inflection point, confirming our hypothesis that the size of the knowledge worker's egocentric network has an inverted U-shaped effect on job performance. We further demonstrate that network dispersion richness (the number of cohorts that the focal employee has connections to) rather than network dispersion evenness (equal distribution of ties across the cohorts) has more influence on the knowledge worker's job performance. Additionally, we found that the curvilinear effect of network size is fully mediated by network dispersion richness. Implications for future research on social networks in China and Western contexts are discussed.

State cycles, initialization and the Trivium stream cipher

Trivium is a keystream generator for a binary additive synchronous stream cipher. It was selected in the final portfolio for the Profile 2 category of the eSTREAM project. The keystream generator is constructed using bit- based shift registers. In this paper we present an alternate representation of Trivium using word-based shift registers, with a word size of three bits. This representation is useful for determining cycles of internal state values. Under this representation it is clear that the state space can be partitioned into subspaces and that over some of these subspaces the state update function is effectively linear. The role of the initialization process is critical in ensuring the states used for generating keystream are updated nonlinearly at some point, as the state update function alone does not provide this.

Portfolio review

The portfolio can be loosely defined as a collection or collation of achievements, artefacts, creative works or examples of competencies, usually for the purpose of demonstrating a person’s capabilities in a specific field of endeavour. People make and share their portfolios for many reasons: social or cultural recognition, employment, accreditation, and educational qualification. It is this latter purpose that this chapter addresses; the creation and use of a portfolio for educational development and certification.

Preparing for portfolio careers in Australian music : setting a research agenda

In the twenty-first century, Australian musicians increasingly maintain ‘portfolio’ careers, in which they combine diverse employment arrangements and activities. Often, these incorporate industry sectors outside of music. This career pattern is widespread but not well understood, largely because of the limitations of existing research. The lack of knowledge about musicians’ work and careers means that Australia currently may not provide appropriate and effective policy, funding, initial training and continuing career support across the diverse music sector. This article discusses existing research relating to the careers and skilling needs of musicians in Australia, and outlines a targeted agenda for further research that has the potential to inform stronger alignment between the requirements of building sustainable music careers and musicians’ education and training.

Accurate stratospheric particle size distributions from two separate flat-plate collection surfaces

Over the past two decades, flat-plate particle collections have revealed the presence of a remarkable variety of both terrestrial and extraterrestrial material in the stratosphere [1-6]. The ratio of terrestrial to extraterrestrial material and the nature of material collected may vary over observable time scales. Variations in particle number density can be important since the earth’s atmospheric radiation balance, and therefore the earth’s climate, can be influenced by articulate absorption and scattering of radiation from the sun and earth [7-9]. In order to assess the number density of solid particles in the stratosphere, we have examined a representative fraction of the so1id particles from two flat-plate collection surfaces, whose collection dates are separated in time by 5 years.

The clay-size fraction of CI chondrites Alais and Orgueil : an AEM study

CI chondrites are used pervasively in the meteorite literature as a cosmochemical reference point for bulk compositions[1], isotope analyses[2] and, within certain models of meteorite evolution, as an important component of an alteration sequence within the carbonaceous chondrite subset[3]. More recently, the chemical variablity of CI chondrite matrices (which comprise >80% of the meteorite), has been cited in discussions about the "chondritic" nature of spectroscopic data from P/comet Halley missions[4] and of chemical data from related materials such as interplanetary dust particles[5]. Most CI chondrites have been studied as bulk samples(e.g. major and trace element abundances)and considerable effort has also been focussed on accessory phases such as magnetites, olivine, sulphates and carbonates [6-8]. A number of early studies showed that the primary constituents of CI matrices are layer silicates and the most definitive structural study on powdered samples identified two minerals: montmorillonite and serpentine[9]. In many cases, as with the study by Bass[9],the relative scarcity of most CI chondrites restricts such bulk analyses to the Orgueil meteorite. The electron microprobe/SEM has been used on petrographic sections to more precisely define the "bulk" composition of at least four CI matrices[3], and as recently summarised by McSween[3], these data define a compositional trend quite different to that obtained for CM chondrite matrices. These "defocussed-beam" microprobe analyses average major element compositions over matrix regions ~lOOµm in diameter and provide only an approximation to silicate mineral composition(s) because their grain sizes are much less than the diameter of the beam. In order to (a) more precisely define the major element compositions of individual mineral grains within CI matrices, and (b)complement previous TEM studies [11,12], we have undertaken an analytical electron microscopy (AEM) study of Alais and Orgueil matrices.

Grain size distributions of Magneli phases and metallic titanium in chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles

A mineralogical survey of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPs)showed that these micrometeorites differ significantly in form and texture from components of carbonaceous chondrites and contain some mineral assemblages which do not occur in any meteorite class1. Models of chondritic IDP mineral evolution generally ignore the typical (ultra-) fine grain size of consituent minerals which range between 0.002-0.1µm in size2. The chondritic porous (CP) subset of chondritic IDPs is probably debris from short period comets although evidence for a cometary origin is still circumstantial3. If CP IDPs represent dust from regions of the Solar System in which comet accretion occurred, it can be argued that pervasive mineralogical evolution of IDP dust has been arrested due to cryogenic storage in comet nuclei. Thus, preservation in CP IDPs of "unusual meteorite minerals", such as oxides of tin, bismuth and titanium4, should not be dismissed casually. These minerals may contain specific information about processes that occurred in regions of the solar nebula, and early Solar System, which spawned the IDP parent bodies such as comets and C, P and D asteroids6. It is not fully appreciated that the apparent disparity between the mineralogy of CP IDPs and carbonaceous chondrite matrix may also be caused by the choice of electron-beam techniques with different analytical resolution. For example, Mg-Si-Fe distributions of Cl matrix obtained by "defocussed beam" microprobe analyses are displaced towards lower Fe-values when using analytical electron microscope (AEM)data which resolve individual mineral grains of various layer silicates and magnetite in the same matrix6,7. In general, "unusual meteorite minerals" in chondritic IDPs, such as metallic titanium, Tin01-n(Magneli phases) and anatase8 add to the mineral data base of fine-grained Solar System materials and provide constraints on processes that occurred in the early Solar System.

Self-assembled hyperbranched polymer - gold nanoparticle hybrids : understanding the effect of polymer coverage on assembly size and SERS performance

In the past few years, remarkable progress has been made in unveiling novel and unique optical properties of strongly coupled plasmonic nanostructures. However, application of such plasmonic nanostructures in biomedicine remains challenging due to the lack of facile and robust assembly methods for producing stable nanostructures. Previous attempts to achieve plasmonic nano-assemblies using molecular ligands were limited due to the lack of flexibility that could be exercised in forming them. Here, we report the utilization of tailor-made hyperbranched polymers (HBP) as linkers to assemble gold nanoparticles (NPs) into nano-assemblies. The ease and flexibility in tuning the particle size and number of branch ends of a HBP makes it an ideal candidate as a linker, as opposed to DNA, small organic molecules and linear or dendrimeric polymers. We report a strong correlation of polymer (HBP) concentration with the size of the hybrid nano-assemblies and “hot-spot” density. We have shown that such solutions of stable HBP-gold nano-assemblies can be barcoded with various Raman tags to provide improved surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) compared with non-aggregated NP systems. These Raman barcoded hybrid nano-assemblies, with further optimization of NP shape, size and “hot-spot” density, may find application as diagnostic tools in nanomedicine.

Computational experiments involving population size for FPGA-based implementation of a GA for the TSP

The feasibility of using an in-hardware implementation of a genetic algorithm (GA) to solve the computationally expensive travelling salesman problem (TSP) is explored, especially in regard to hardware resource requirements for problem and population sizes. We investigate via numerical experiments whether a small population size might prove sufficient to obtain reasonable quality solutions for the TSP, thereby permitting relatively resource efficient hardware implementation on field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). Software experiments on two TSP benchmarks involving 48 and 532 cities were used to explore the extent to which population size can be reduced without compromising solution quality, and results show that a GA allowed to run for a large number of generations with a smaller population size can yield solutions of comparable quality to those obtained using a larger population. This finding is then used to investigate feasible problem sizes on a targeted Virtex-7 vx485T-2 FPGA platform via exploration of hardware resource requirements for memory and data flow operations.